Reverse Fire Bet

Call it the Ice Bet

What are the odds that the pass line loses on all six points before winning any?

The bet can be made on every come out roll following a passline win (on a point).

If the vig wasn’t too steep, I’d like to make this bet occasionally

Quote: Ace2

Call it the Ice Bet

What are the odds that the pass line loses on all six points before winning any?

The bet can be made on every come out roll following a passline win (on a point).

If the vig wasn’t too steep, I’d like to make this bet occasionally

Interesting concept. I just don't think there are enough dark siders who play side wagers to justify it when factoring in the cost of commercialization against the potential market. Same would go for the lease cost on the casinos' end in order to justify putting it in. Especially because they would have to remove repeaters, bonus craps or the like to do so.

Just my thoughts, but interesting nonetheless.

I think I proposed that in a post several years ago.

I combined it with the concept of the Darkside craps table:
1- The shooter keeps the dice until he makes a point.
2- Black felt, black dice.
3- Reverse the positions of the pass/DP, C/DC, etc.

I agree there might not be enough dark siders to make it worth it.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I think I proposed that in a post several years ago.

I combined it with the concept of the Darkside craps table:
1- The shooter keeps the dice until he makes a point.
2- Black felt, black dice.

Did you calculate the odds ?

Quote: Ace2

Did you calculate the odds ?

No.
I was just spit-balling the idea. And partially just to get an acknowledging laugh.

Quote: Ace2

Did you calculate the odds ?

For the "ice bet," I get around 1/238 through simulation

I don't get it. If I'm gonna hit 15 7-11 winners on my way to making 10 points, the table is not cold.

Quote: ChumpChange

I don't get it. If I'm gonna hit 15 7-11 winners on my way to making 10 points, the table is not cold.

Bets resolved on 7 (come out roll), 11, 2, 3 and 12 are not relevant to Fire Bet or Ice Bet

Most people don’t really care about those resolutions because it’s only like 20 to 30 percent of a bet backed with odds. You won’t hear many passline bettors cheering on a yo-leven win. My favorite craps dealer at Cosmopolitan calls it “nuthin but a consolation prize “

Quote: ThatDonGuy

For the "ice bet," I get around 1/238 through simulation

Sounds reasonable. A rough estimate, assuming all six point numbers have a 4/36 chance of being rolled, is 1 in combin (10,4) or 1 in 210.

I integrated (1-((1-e^(-x/12))*(1-e^(-x/10))*(1-e^(-5x/44)))^2)*e^(-67x/165)*67/165 to get an exact answer of

1 - 26377022557963785763747662711151 / 26487894210755014319991887628450 =~ 1 in 238.906

Quote: Ace2

I integrated (1-((1-e^(-x/12))*(1-e^(-x/10))*(1-e^(-5x/44)))^2)*e^(-67x/165)*67/165 to get an exact answer of

1 - 26377022557963785763747662711151 / 26487894210755014319991887628450 =~ 1 in 238.906

I got the same thing, using the method described here for the Fire bet.

Okay, I'll ask - how did you come up with that integral? (Also, what are the minimum and maximum x values used in the integral?)

Quote: ThatDonGuy

I got the same thing, using the method described here for the Fire bet.

Okay, I'll ask - how did you come up with that integral? (Also, what are the minimum and maximum x values used in the integral?)

The integral is over all time, so zero to infinity.

A shooter will seven out on a 4/10, 5/9, and 6/8 with probability 1/12, 1/10, and 5/44 respectively, and make a point with probability 67/165. So, for instance, we expect a shooter to seven-out with point of 9 every once every 10 decisions (decisions on 2,3,12, 7/11 aren’t counted)

e^(-x/10) is the chance, at any given time x from zero to infinity, that a sevenout with point 9 has happened zero times. The compliment of that means it’s happened at least once. Multiply these probabilities together for all 6 points and you have the probability that all 6 points have been “won” in Ice Bet terms. Take the compliment of that product, multiply by e^(-67x/165) and you have the probability, at any given time, that at least one point hasn’t been won (Ice bet terms) and no point has been hit (pass line terms). In this state the bet is unresolved and will be lost of a point is hit (pass line terms). Multiply that by 67/165 and you get the probability of ice bet losing. The compliment of that is the probability it wins

I like.