Bonanza Pai Gow Australia
Note that the Crown Melbourne doesn't even pay a bonus on Gongs (c.f. Table 8) which makes the House Edge 15.57% (ouch!)
i.e. Avoid.
Quote: robert.looI just learned that in Australia there is a tie bet available on their tiles table! As a seasoned player I’m very curious about the house advantage on this bet and would love to know the math behind it. The tie bet apparently pays even money with no commission taken and will pay you 25 to 1 if the low hand is at least a Wong and 20 to 1 if the low hand is a gong. On the outside the bet looks pretty amazing since ties are extremely common so I was just wondering if the bet is something that should be made all the time.
Are you allowed to set your hand anyway you want? Or must you said at the official house way? If you are allowed to set it anyway you want, you can definitely increase the amount of times you will have a tie
Assuming equal bets are allowed, that gives you roughly 4% back, thus the Tie Bet costs you about 10.24%. If you didn't have to make a base bet, then you can make plays purely for Tie purposes, the House Edge is about 3.35%. This assumes the 25/20/1 Bonus you mentioned.Quote: robert.looApparently you can set your hand however you like.
In summary I get it that you can't overcome the House Edge with smart play and if the House only allows equal bets you need to learn a different "perfect" strategy to get to the figure above. It's not worth the bother.
Quote: robert.looWait is that really the house edge? regular tie pays 1 to 1 , tie with a wong or higher in the low pays 25 to 1 and 20 to 1 with a gong? yikes, I didn't think it would be that bad since in some cases you can set your hand where a tie is more probable.
It’s 25-1 on a Gong or higher on the low. Minor correction but means a lower house edge.
And yes, can set however you like.
Only ever seen this bet in Crown Melbourne though.
EDIT: You CAN make this as a stand-alone bet. No need to play the normal bet.
Quote: charliepatrick
Note that the Crown Melbourne doesn't even pay a bonus on Gongs (c.f. Table 8) which makes the House Edge 15.57% (ouch!)
i.e. Avoid.
Unless the rules have changed in the last 8 weeks this is not correct. They definitely pay 25-1 on the tie if you have a gong or higher on the low hand.
I can see the rules now say that, so I'm not sure what I was looking at a few days ago which suggested otherwise except I did see the same rule #8 (p26) so wasn't seeing things!Quote: AussieUnless the rules have changed in the last 8 weeks this is not correct. They definitely pay 25-1 on the tie if you have a gong or higher on the low hand.
Using the rules that Gongs+ pay 25/1 the House Edge is about 0.65% less, about 2.70% if you just play the tie bet (but as I said you need to play differently - e.g. 6-6 6-5 4-4 4-4 you would not split the 8s).
I can see the rules now say that, so I'm not sure what I was looking at a few days ago which suggested otherwise except I did see the same rule #8 (p26) so wasn't seeing things!Quote: AussieUnless the rules have changed in the last 8 weeks this is not correct. They definitely pay 25-1 on the tie if you have a gong or higher on the low hand.
Using the rules that Gongs+ pay 25/1 the House Edge is about 0.65% less, about 2.70% if you just play the tie bet (but as I said you need to play differently - e.g. 6-6 6-5 4-4 4-4 you would not split the 8s).
Quote: charliepatrickI can see the rules now say that, so I'm not sure what I was looking at a few days ago which suggested otherwise except I did see the same rule #8 (p26) so wasn't seeing things!
Using the rules that Gongs+ pay 25/1 the House Edge is about 0.65% less, about 2.70% if you just play the tie bet (but as I said you need to play differently - e.g. 6-6 6-5 4-4 4-4 you would not split the 8s).
I think if you were solely playing for ties you could turn the bet +EV. (Just a guess). There are a bunch of hands that overdoing the high at the expense of the low would markedly increase ties. Play wong/3 instead of 9/5 as an example. There are many other examples.
Gee Joon/1 instead of 9/8. Etc....
Quote: charliepatrickAssuming equal bets are allowed, that gives you roughly 4% back, thus the Tie Bet costs you about 10.24%. If you didn't have to make a base bet, then you can make plays purely for Tie purposes, the House Edge is about 3.35%. This assumes the 25/20/1 Bonus you mentioned.
In summary I get it that you can't overcome the House Edge with smart play and if the House only allows equal bets you need to learn a different "perfect" strategy to get to the figure above. It's not worth the bother.
3% ish sounds a lot better. I also came to the realization that both hands can’t win so I’m not really sure what the best strategy is in regards to the bet. Perhaps just ignoring it altogether might be better but since pushes occur so often It’s hard to resist the temptation to just use that as a primary bet.
In my experience Mostly people play the base bet with maybe one third also playing the bonus bet. Sometimes they also play the tie. I mainly see people playing the tie when they have run out of/are low on money as the minimum bet is typically much lower. EG $100 minimum on the base bet but only $10 or $25 on the tie.
Quote: AussieThis side bet isn’t played a whole lot and combined with the fact you don’t have to make the base bet to play it, that probably gives a good indication that it can’t be beaten.
In my experience Mostly people play the base bet with maybe one third also playing the bonus bet. Sometimes they also play the tie. I mainly see people playing the tie when they have run out of/are low on money as the minimum bet is typically much lower. EG $100 minimum on the base bet but only $10 or $25 on the tie.
I'm going to play 100 hands using my 'tie' strategy. I'll report results. To remind me, if I have a gong in low hand and tie I win 20-1. If its a wong I win 25-1. Both assuming it results in a tie. I'll be back.
Just played 30 hands. Tie only 11. I gave up.
Quote: AussieIt’s 25-1 if a gong or higher on the low. Nothing extra if it’s a wong.
Wong is higher than gong. If it says 'gong or higher' I'm sure wong is included.
Quote: SOOPOOWong is higher than gong. If it says 'gong or higher' I'm sure wong is included.
What I mean is that they will pay 25-1 if your low hand is a gong or higher. That covers times when your low hand is a Wong and also when the low hand may be a pair.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/pai-gow-tiles/calculator/
(I selected "Crown Casino" for the "dealer strategy")
Doing the above and using a "best chance to get a push" strategy, I got the following figures:
Push (average): 9895.7933
Total combos (according to the calculator): 20,475
Chance of a push: 48.33...%
Sorry, I don't understand pg tiles since I have never looked at it/played it before, so I don't know how many of those hands (if any) would have paid a bonus.
03Apr'20 19h42 BST: These figures are wrong as I had a bug in my code when splitting pairs: e.g. Hi8 Hi8 1-1 =9=. If you play there's 2200 chances of winning 25/1, if splitting there's 24208 chances of winning 1/1. However I was incorrectly using 24208 and giving the bonus.
Note I don't use Melbourne House Way but the one used in the UK so the figures might be slightly out. Here are the numbers just looking at maximizing the number of ties.
Note: I noticed I had to make a manual* adjustment as you occasionally need to split two pairs (e.g. with 6-6 6-6 4-4 4-4 you're better off splitting the pairs) as my original logic didn't look at alternatives for "TwoPairs", it did for other "OneWay" hands.
The chance of a tie this way is 46.85%.
| Bonus Ties | 1 216 624 | 25 | 30 415 600 |
| Simple Ties | 343 788 169 | 1 | 343 788 169 |
| Not Tie | 391 385 936 | - 1 | -391 385 936 |
736 390 729 | 0 | -17 182 167 | |
-2.333% |
* - The above figures might be slightly out as I've just used the "Tie" figures for 6-6 1-1 {Hi8 Hi8, Lo8 Lo8, =9= =9=) instead of 6-6 6-6 ... ... or 1-1 1-1 ... ... rather than recoding the original program, so this is a very close estimate. However it still shows there's a House Edge.
Idea - PaiGow allow GeeJ to be 3 or 6, are you allowed to under-declare - for a hand like 4-1 2-1 could it be considered as a 1 rather than 8? I've assumed not!
Quote: charliepatrickNote I don't use Melbourne House Way but the one used in the UK so the figures might be slightly out. Here are the numbers just looking at maximizing the number of ties.
Note: I noticed I had to make a manual* adjustment as you occasionally need to split two pairs (e.g. with 6-6 6-6 4-4 4-4 you're better off splitting the pairs) as my original logic didn't look at alternatives for "TwoPairs", it did for other "OneWay" hands.
The chance of a tie this way is 46.85%.
Bonus Ties Simple Ties Not Tie
* - The above figures might be slightly out as I've just used the "Tie" figures for 6-6 1-1 {Hi8 Hi8, Lo8 Lo8, =9= =9=) instead of 6-6 6-6 ... ... or 1-1 1-1 ... ... rather than recoding the original program, so this is a very close estimate. However it still shows there's a House Edge.
Idea - PaiGow allow GeeJ to be 3 or 6, are you allowed to under-declare - for a hand like 4-1 2-1 could it be considered as a 1 rather than 8? I've assumed not!
Thanks for doing this. In my 30 Hand sample I did get one where I ‘wanted’ to count the Gee Joon as 6 to make the low hand worse. My favorite hand was teen, teen, day, 7. Played teen/day. 7/teen. It worked.
Interestingly it's also correct to split 6-6 6-6 1-1 4-4 as it's more than 28 times likely to get a Tie even though playing the hand normally would possibly get a 25/1 payout.Quote: SOOPOOMy favorite hand was teen, teen, day, 7. Played teen/day. 7/teen. It worked.
I might have another look at two pairs (since I assume you don't split them except for the ones I spotted earlier). However, for instance, with GJ GJ 6-6 6-6 you can't lose, so you might as well split them and hope the dealer has one hand>8 and one hand<8. I might have a relook at this sometime, although the chances of Two Pair are so low it's not likely to make much difference to the House Edge and also if you have low pairs you might win 25/1 if the dealer plays a higher pair.
I have also changed the method of working out bonus hands so it considers the Low Hand for each way to play the hand.
(I had a bug where, e.g. Hi8 Hi8 1-1 =9=, it realised you were more likely to get a Tie by splitting, but it also then applied a bonus since it saw the Low Hand was Wong. As it happens you are best not splitting the pair and hoping to get a 25/1 payout.)
The chances of getting a Tie is now 46.81%.
The House Edge is 5.187%.
| Bonus Ties | 368 285 | 25 | 9 207 125 |
| Simple Ties | 344 256 376 | 1 | 344 256 376 |
| Not Tie | 391 656 339 | - 1 | -391 656 339 |
736 281 000 | 0 | -38 192 838 | |
-5.187% |
