Mandrakewzrd
Mandrakewzrd
Joined: Jul 25, 2019
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July 25th, 2019 at 8:49:40 PM permalink
Hi Wizard, folks. I love the info you share. Is always great to see how you solve any basic or complex question about poker games.
I'm from Argentina and i play Caribbean Stud Poker with 1 possible discard card.
I always play the optimal strategy you teach about this game. However, can't solve by myself if buy 1 card to improve my hand by an ante bet price, could give me better edge ev+ or not.
I only buy a card if got 2 pairs for full, or for quads, and of course, for straight or flush. I presume that if i buy and the dealer don't, i only resign the ante pay. So ev=0.
Could be possible that buy the card won't hit the flush or straight and then, lost 2 ante bets. Or could have for exemple TTJQ and buy for 2 pairs or trips, and dealer wins any way.
So, finally, i whish to ask if you think that buy a card in this kind of situations will improve my edge or not.
Some times i make a full or quads from 1 buy card. The dealer opens, and it's great hand for me.
Here the payment table is 1:1 for pair, 2:1 for two pairs, 3:1 for trips 4:1 for straight, 5 for flush, 7 for full and 20 for quads.
PD: is this game profitable or not?? Usuallly i end the night even or winning some. But it's amazing for me how i can resist sometimes 5 hours with no losses, waiting for a great hand.
So... Is this game proffitable or not in the long term?? Can't solve this question.
No jackpot bet. Usually no increasing bet, even winning, doing the same bet, ever.
No bluff at all.
Thanks!!!
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
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July 26th, 2019 at 4:37:43 AM permalink
Hello, welcome.
The WizardOfOdds page on Caribbean Stud tells about a variant where you can discard/buy, and still fold. It is named Oasis on that page.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/oasis-poker/

The version offered in Belgium is where you can discard/buy one card only, but then you must participate. https://wizardofodds.com/games/no-fold-oasis-poker/

The dealer cannot discard/buy.

Which one do you play?
Last edited by: kubikulann on Jul 26, 2019
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kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
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July 26th, 2019 at 4:49:16 AM permalink
The game is not profitable, of course.
But with the discard option, its Return rate compares with that of Blackjack.

The problem is how to define House edge. Say the ante is 1 unit. Must we divide EV by 1? By 3 (the true wager)? Or, like the Wizard does, by an average of 1 and 3 (and 4 in the discard version)?

Looking at the ratio of Expected Value to Standard Deviation, the game is very comparable to Blackjack or Baccarat, and significantly better than roulette, for example.

But you must have deep pockets and patience, because it grinds your bankroll slowly then suddenly brings you back in the positive. (A martingale would be a very bad idea! 😋)
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Mandrakewzrd
Mandrakewzrd
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July 26th, 2019 at 10:00:21 AM permalink
Hi!! I already read those articles. This one looks like a variant. I can buy and change only one card, and still resign the hand before the call. So that's why i say sometimes i loose 2 antes if i don't play the hand - if straight wont match or flush - or 2 antes and the bet if i still choose to play the hand and then be beaten by the casino.
Mandrakewzrd
Mandrakewzrd
Joined: Jul 25, 2019
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July 26th, 2019 at 10:06:20 AM permalink
Quote: kubikulann

The game is not profitable, of course.
But with the discard option, its Return rate compares with that of Blackjack.

The problem is how to define House edge. Say the ante is 1 unit. Must we divide EV by 1? By 3 (the true wager)? Or, like the Wizard does, by an average of 1 and 3 (and 4 in the discard version)?

Looking at the ratio of Expected Value to Standard Deviation, the game is very comparable to Blackjack or Baccarat, and significantly better than roulette, for example.

But you must have deep pockets and patience, because it grinds your bankroll slowly then suddenly brings you back in the positive. (A martingale would be a very bad idea! 😋)


Very well thinking. That's how it works. I always start my season whit 10 complete ante-bet bankroll. Iy could be a downswing for a few hands of no hitting. Maybe loose 4 complete ante-bets. But then, 3 or 4 good hands maybe whit a flush or trips takes me on the ev+.
I play already 2000 hands i think. Lots of hours of good patience, always playing optimal strategy, no bluffing at all. I have an 7-5 ev+ score nights till now.
Mandrakewzrd
Mandrakewzrd
Joined: Jul 25, 2019
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July 26th, 2019 at 10:21:32 AM permalink
Whot this one card buy option - and not be commited to play mandame tory - i make some great rare hands - 3 fulls, one flush, one straight in one round - so, even knowing notting about it's ev, i could say it's +. But i start this tread preciselly for that: if could be possible to simulate it's long term ev. Another important thing: it uses only 1 card deck of 52 cards. Sometimes i play alone against dealer, sometimes we are 7 stranges against him. So, i guess it's impossible to figure an ev whit so many variants. Isn't!?.
It's interesting that 'almost blackjack return' you mention. Is that good or no? Why do you say isn't proffitable??
Mandrakewzrd
Mandrakewzrd
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July 26th, 2019 at 10:26:35 AM permalink
Quote: kubikulann

The game is not profitable, of course.
But with the discard option, its Return rate compares with that of Blackjack.

The problem is how to define House edge. Say the ante is 1 unit. Must we divide EV by 1? By 3 (the true wager)? Or, like the Wizard does, by an average of 1 and 3 😋)


Dealer can't discard any card. Can you explain to me a little more about this? Reading your thinking makes me think then, that COULD BE proffitable.
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
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July 26th, 2019 at 11:00:20 AM permalink
Quote: Mandrakewzrd

Hi!! I already read those articles. This one looks like a variant. I can buy and change only one card, and still resign the hand before the call.

For all practical purposes this is Oasis, because the Wizard says not to change more than one card anyway.
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kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
Mandrakewzrd
July 26th, 2019 at 11:04:42 AM permalink
Quote: Mandrakewzrd

Can you explain to me a little more about this? Reading your thinking makes me think then, that COULD BE profitable.

No. Whatever the formula for House Edge, when the Expected Value is negative, it remains negative.
Your EV is very close to zero, but stills negative.

But I am not sure you play optimally.
Changing a card on a double pair is not profitable: it costs more than you can expect.


The; number of punters at the table does not change the figures.
Unless you can look at their cards. Then in the limit cases (A-King) it might change the optimal play.
But not to the point of making the EV positive.
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Mandrakewzrd
Mandrakewzrd
Joined: Jul 25, 2019
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July 26th, 2019 at 11:09:51 AM permalink
Ty mate. Not always do that 1 card change. When i refeer to optimal is to play pairs or better, as king whit q or j, or dealers card matching my 4th card. Never do something different to that. So, anyway is ev-? Whatta crap. But there is not an ev+ game, only ev+ plays. So, how it works? Anyone plays on ev- this game?.

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