Caribean Stud Poker with 1 discard: edge?

Hi Wizard, folks. I love the info you share. Is always great to see how you solve any basic or complex question about poker games.
I'm from Argentina and i play Caribbean Stud Poker with 1 possible discard card.
I always play the optimal strategy you teach about this game. However, can't solve by myself if buy 1 card to improve my hand by an ante bet price, could give me better edge ev+ or not.
I only buy a card if got 2 pairs for full, or for quads, and of course, for straight or flush. I presume that if i buy and the dealer don't, i only resign the ante pay. So ev=0.
Could be possible that buy the card won't hit the flush or straight and then, lost 2 ante bets. Or could have for exemple TTJQ and buy for 2 pairs or trips, and dealer wins any way.
So, finally, i whish to ask if you think that buy a card in this kind of situations will improve my edge or not.
Some times i make a full or quads from 1 buy card. The dealer opens, and it's great hand for me.
Here the payment table is 1:1 for pair, 2:1 for two pairs, 3:1 for trips 4:1 for straight, 5 for flush, 7 for full and 20 for quads.
PD: is this game profitable or not?? Usuallly i end the night even or winning some. But it's amazing for me how i can resist sometimes 5 hours with no losses, waiting for a great hand.
So... Is this game proffitable or not in the long term?? Can't solve this question.
No jackpot bet. Usually no increasing bet, even winning, doing the same bet, ever.
No bluff at all.
Thanks!!!

Hello, welcome.
The WizardOfOdds page on Caribbean Stud tells about a variant where you can discard/buy, and still fold. It is named Oasis on that page.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/oasis-poker/

The version offered in Belgium is where you can discard/buy one card only, but then you must participate. https://wizardofodds.com/games/no-fold-oasis-poker/

The dealer cannot discard/buy.

Which one do you play?

The game is not profitable, of course.
But with the discard option, its Return rate compares with that of Blackjack.

The problem is how to define House edge. Say the ante is 1 unit. Must we divide EV by 1? By 3 (the true wager)? Or, like the Wizard does, by an average of 1 and 3 (and 4 in the discard version)?

Looking at the ratio of Expected Value to Standard Deviation, the game is very comparable to Blackjack or Baccarat, and significantly better than roulette, for example.

But you must have deep pockets and patience, because it grinds your bankroll slowly then suddenly brings you back in the positive. (A martingale would be a very bad idea! 😋)

Hi!! I already read those articles. This one looks like a variant. I can buy and change only one card, and still resign the hand before the call. So that's why i say sometimes i loose 2 antes if i don't play the hand - if straight wont match or flush - or 2 antes and the bet if i still choose to play the hand and then be beaten by the casino.

Quote: kubikulann

The game is not profitable, of course.
But with the discard option, its Return rate compares with that of Blackjack.

The problem is how to define House edge. Say the ante is 1 unit. Must we divide EV by 1? By 3 (the true wager)? Or, like the Wizard does, by an average of 1 and 3 (and 4 in the discard version)?

Looking at the ratio of Expected Value to Standard Deviation, the game is very comparable to Blackjack or Baccarat, and significantly better than roulette, for example.

But you must have deep pockets and patience, because it grinds your bankroll slowly then suddenly brings you back in the positive. (A martingale would be a very bad idea! 😋)

Very well thinking. That's how it works. I always start my season whit 10 complete ante-bet bankroll. Iy could be a downswing for a few hands of no hitting. Maybe loose 4 complete ante-bets. But then, 3 or 4 good hands maybe whit a flush or trips takes me on the ev+.
I play already 2000 hands i think. Lots of hours of good patience, always playing optimal strategy, no bluffing at all. I have an 7-5 ev+ score nights till now.

Whot this one card buy option - and not be commited to play mandame tory - i make some great rare hands - 3 fulls, one flush, one straight in one round - so, even knowing notting about it's ev, i could say it's +. But i start this tread preciselly for that: if could be possible to simulate it's long term ev. Another important thing: it uses only 1 card deck of 52 cards. Sometimes i play alone against dealer, sometimes we are 7 stranges against him. So, i guess it's impossible to figure an ev whit so many variants. Isn't!?.
It's interesting that 'almost blackjack return' you mention. Is that good or no? Why do you say isn't proffitable??

Quote: kubikulann

The game is not profitable, of course.
But with the discard option, its Return rate compares with that of Blackjack.

The problem is how to define House edge. Say the ante is 1 unit. Must we divide EV by 1? By 3 (the true wager)? Or, like the Wizard does, by an average of 1 and 3 😋)

Dealer can't discard any card. Can you explain to me a little more about this? Reading your thinking makes me think then, that COULD BE proffitable.

Quote: Mandrakewzrd

Hi!! I already read those articles. This one looks like a variant. I can buy and change only one card, and still resign the hand before the call.

For all practical purposes this is Oasis, because the Wizard says not to change more than one card anyway.

Quote: Mandrakewzrd

Can you explain to me a little more about this? Reading your thinking makes me think then, that COULD BE profitable.

No. Whatever the formula for House Edge, when the Expected Value is negative, it remains negative.
Your EV is very close to zero, but stills negative.

But I am not sure you play optimally.
Changing a card on a double pair is not profitable: it costs more than you can expect.


The; number of punters at the table does not change the figures.
Unless you can look at their cards. Then in the limit cases (A-King) it might change the optimal play.
But not to the point of making the EV positive.

Ty mate. Not always do that 1 card change. When i refeer to optimal is to play pairs or better, as king whit q or j, or dealers card matching my 4th card. Never do something different to that. So, anyway is ev-? Whatta crap. But there is not an ev+ game, only ev+ plays. So, how it works? Anyone plays on ev- this game?.

Quote: Mandrakewzrd

It's interesting that 'almost blackjack return' you mention. Is that good or no? Why do you say isn't proffitable??

Because no casino table game is profitable to the player.
BlackJ has a low House edge (= advantage to the Hoise), so does your version. In the long run, it is a reasonable price to pay for the duration of fun. But don’t fall for the error of thinking you or anybody can make a profit out of it — except the casino of course.

In a few cases i can see another's player cards. Don't like it to much. Here, a simple question like: Anyone have a queen? It's allowed. Dealer and table cheaff let players exchange some info whit a bit of silent and care. Cameras are everywere. Now whit all this info i start to think that this game isn't proffitable. To many patience and hours at the table to finally be ev- on long term. And still thinking... What card game is ev+? No one is. So, if optimal play is near to zero ev, maybe that patience cuoul be rewarder whit a good bankroll and optimal play

Quote: kubikulann

Because no casino table game is profitable to the player.
BlackJ has a low House edge (= advantage to the Hoise), so does your version. In the long run, it is a reasonable price to pay for the duration of fun. But don’t fall for the error of thinking you or anybody can make a profit out of it — except the casino of course.

So, playing against other players like in Texas Holdem, in cash or tournaments, and beying one day a pro playing always ev+ moves, it's the only way to be proffitable from casino's card games? So. Many people like me, so many millions of assholes trying to be pros om games that could'nt be beaten? SAD

Quote: Mandrakewzrd

What card game is ev+? No one is. So, if optimal play is near to zero ev, maybe that patience could be rewarded with a good bankroll and optimal play

Depends on what you call Reward.

Usually, on this forum, success is measured in the long term. That is, EV. The only way to have EV+ without cheating is counting cards. That has become impossible because of Shuffle Machines.

Now if, like me, you see as reward the fun you have and the small price you pay for that, then look for small neg EV . and, if you like to win big some times and lose hard other times, look for a large variance.

Optimal play has two functions : 1) reduce the House edge ; 2) increase your fun - if for you the fun of the game is in playing well (otherwise, try baccarat).
Bankroll has two roles: 1) allow you to play longer ; 2) set a loss limit.
A BIG BANKROLL DOES NOT INCREASE YOUR EXPECTATION OR YOUR PROBA OF WINNING. It increases the amount that the casino will rip off of you.

Quote: Mandrakewzrd

So, playing against other players like in Texas Holdem, in cash or tournaments, and beying one day a pro playing always ev+ moves, it's the only way to be proffitable from casino's card games? So. Many people like me, so many millions of assholes trying to be pros om games that could'nt be beaten? SAD

Look at a local parochial tombola. Somebody shall win, but on the whole players lose their money.
That’s the same as against-the-house games: Bj, Baccarat, Roulette, slots, Caribbean, Tex Holdm, etc.

Now look at paying a fee to enter a competition of cooking. The organizer wins money from the fees. *IF* you are the best competitor, you have a positive EV but it is taken from your opponents, not the organizer.
That’s the same as casino-organized Poker events. You play against the others, not against the casino. And it is not pure luck, there is an element of skill.

Quote: kubikulann

That’s the same as casino-organized Poker events. You play against the others, not against the casino. And it is not pure luck, there is an element of skill.

of course. I've been studying holdem for 2 years. Skill and well play hand ev+ are the goals. But only play against players online. Those are all maniacs here. I whish to play live, but there is only tournament and no cash six max, which i prefeer. Pitty.