• Posts: 1
Joined: May 13, 2019
May 13th, 2019 at 5:36:50 PM permalink
There is an online game that has the following rules:
You can bet any amount from 1 to 1 mil. You can choose any multiplier, from 1.01 to 10000. Every game starts from 1.00 and the multiplier starts growing. It may crash at any moment, from 1.01 to 10000. The probability if it crashing is proportional to the multiplier. So if you bet 1.01x you will win 99% of the time, but only 1% of your bet. If you bet 2x you win about 50% of the time. Winnings of 1000+ are extremely rare but they happen.
House edge is that about every 100 rounds the game crashes at 0 and everybody loses.

You can bet about once per minute. What would be the best strategy with alternating bet size and multiplier? I tried Martingale but streaks of losses below 2 are fairly common, I've seen 15 and 18 losses in a row.
DogHand
• Posts: 1644
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
May 13th, 2019 at 5:55:20 PM permalink

There is an online game that has the following rules:
You can bet any amount from 1 to 1 mil. You can choose any multiplier, from 1.01 to 10000. Every game starts from 1.00 and the multiplier starts growing. It may crash at any moment, from 1.01 to 10000. The probability if it crashing is proportional to the multiplier. So if you bet 1.01x you will win 99% of the time, but only 1% of your bet. If you bet 2x you win about 50% of the time. Winnings of 1000+ are extremely rare but they happen.
House edge is that about every 100 rounds the game crashes at 0 and everybody loses.

You can bet about once per minute. What would be the best strategy with alternating bet size and multiplier? I tried Martingale but streaks of losses below 2 are fairly common, I've seen 15 and 18 losses in a row.

You did not specify your goal, so I'll assume that you want to be a long-term winner.

If you choose a multiplier of 1.01 and win 99% of the time, then in 100 rounds you'll win 99 of them, for a gain of 0.99, and lose one, for a loss of 1. This is a net loss of 0.01 units per 100 rounds.

Given this, here is the optimal strategy:

1. Bet 0.
2. Goto 1

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
MonkeyWithpain