Don Johnson - Blackjack Strategy
Quote: FinsRuleI don’t think you know what the word “basic” means.
“Basic” strategy is perfect.
Also, I’m shocked casinos would let any odd things go on at 100k per hand. I guess if someone gives a confusing hand signal, you can probably get away with it once.
They’re just so protective of their money at a $10 table. Don’t they know the stakes are a tiny bit higher when someone is playing for 100k?
Its more like role reversal
Something funky at a $10 table. Strict accounting measures. If player gets pissed "Sir, you are welcome to take you ($10) action somewhere else. We dont permit this."
At the $100,000 table, "Sir, if... um well, we would certainly brush that anomaly aside. PLEASE DONT TAKE YOUR $100,000 PER HAND BUSINESS TO ANYONE ELSE".
These people have higher ups. Imagine when their boss the next morning asks why the $100,000 per hand client took his business elsewhere. No one even wants the question asked even if they did do the right thing bu kicking them out or pissing them off.
Quote: ssho88How much player can save( in term of %) for 1,2,4, 6 and 8 deck if include all those close call decisions ? I know a 6 deck(play until last 2.5 deck) game with house edge 0.09%, possible to overcome it ?
Good to hear from you, ssho88. Yes, I think that a player can flat-bet a 6-deck shoe and use special techniques for computer perfect strategy on close-call decisions and overcome an HE of 0.09%.
After the Spring Fling event, I'll contact Mike Shackleford and inquire if he would be interested in an article on this.
Quote: gordonm888Good to hear from you, ssho88. Yes, I think that a player can flat-bet a 6-deck shoe and use special techniques for computer perfect strategy on close-call decisions and overcome an HE of 0.09%.
After the Spring Fling event, I'll contact Mike Shackleford and inquire if he would be interested in an article on this.
The place I play at. The player can place the cut card.
Also, isn't house edge around ~0.5% with Basic Strategy. How the 0.09% figure? Thanks!
Quote: tongniJust doesn't sound as impossible if you reduce the numbers, he won $1000 flat betting $10 a hand.
I don't think the deals described are very different than a lot of offers that exist today to VIP players AS LONG AS THEY KNOW YOU. If you have a $500k+ trip bankroll and want to fire, feel free to PM me.
$1000 while flat betting $10 a hand does sound impossible. Or at least unusual. If it was possible. People would stop counting cards and just flat bet for 12 hours and walk richer. Less swings in bankroll too
Quote: gordonm888Good to hear from you, ssho88. Yes, I think that a player can flat-bet a 6-deck shoe and use special techniques for computer perfect strategy on close-call decisions and overcome an HE of 0.09%.
After the Spring Fling event, I'll contact Mike Shackleford and inquire if he would be interested in an article on this.
How about stats such as. Dealer having more than 3 busts in a row. Or player winning more than 4 times in a row. Could those be used to assume that the fifth hand is a loser and surrender accordingly?
When following perfect Basic Strategy
Quote: PinkJackHow about stats such as. Dealer having more than 3 busts in a row. Or player winning more than 4 times in a row. Could those be used to assume that the fifth hand is a loser and surrender accordingly?
When following perfect Basic Strategy
Do the dealers cards know they are due to win?
Just a thought.
Quote: PinkJackI ran a sim. On average the maximum no of hands a dealer or player wins continuously is 4 or less. (Though the sample size was small. 5000 hands. 20 times).
Just a thought.
Run a bigger sim.
Prove that there's absolutely no way the dealer wins X hands in a row. Mortgage all you have. Borrow all you can. Watch till a real dealer wins (X-1) games in a row, then WADE in : Win a fortune Then report back to gloat.*
Just a thought.
* No. Don't really do that.
PJ, you seem to believe that you see the big secret to beating Blackjack. You're not the first to be wrong.
Quote: FinsRuleI don’t think you know what the word “basic” means.
“Basic” strategy is perfect.
No, basic strategy is perfect ONLY AT A TRUE COUNT OF ZERO. As soon as one card is dealt out of the shoe, basic strategy has to be modified in order to be "perfect".
Don had many "trips" which he could end whenever he wanted. He received $50,000 in "show up money" which is equivalent to the free play that casinos give out to many of their patrons weekly.
If he hit his "win point" he stopped and took the money. If he hit his "loss point", he stopped, got his rebate, and then ended his trip. He could start back the next day with a new trip.
His winnings were the aggregate of all those trips.
Quote: FCBLComishI think there is a key piece of information that people are claiming is true that is not. Where did anyone find that Don Johnson won that money on three trips without a losing trip?
Don had many "trips" which he could end whenever he wanted. He received $50,000 in "show up money" which is equivalent to the free play that casinos give out to many of their patrons weekly.
If he hit his "win point" he stopped and took the money. If he hit his "loss point", he stopped, got his rebate, and then ended his trip. He could start back the next day with a new trip.
His winnings were the aggregate of all those trips.
MDawg gave an answer on this. It's in the comments. Please check it out.
Quote: PinkJackI ran a sim. On average the maximum no of hands a dealer or player wins continuously is 4 or less. (Though the sample size was small. 5000 hands. 20 times).
Just a thought.
Possibly the most inaccurate simulation in blackjack simulation history
Quote: FCBLComishNo, basic strategy is perfect ONLY AT A TRUE COUNT OF ZERO. As soon as one card is dealt out of the shoe, basic strategy has to be modified in order to be "perfect".
71% of the time the count is zero or lower. So just using Basic Strategy should be sufficient.
Not sure how reliable the source is. Maybe someone else could add to this.
Source_Blackjack_in_Color
Many years ago I ran basic strategy BJ shoes. Using the standard Hi-Lo count and running 100 million shoes (six decks 83% penetration) got this....Quote: PinkJack71% of the time the count is zero or lower....
| Total | 462 584 768 | 100.000% |
| Negative | 216 240 717 | 46.746% |
| Zero | 39 525 674 | 8.545% |
| Positive | 206 818 377 | 44.709% |
Quote: PinkJack71% of the time the count is zero or lower. So just using Basic Strategy should be sufficient.
Not sure how reliable the source is. Maybe someone else could add to this.
Source_Blackjack_in_Color
When the count is lower than zero, there are also deviations required. You will hit more stiff hands against 2 or even 3.
I thought he won about $15 million total.Quote: PinkJackFor those unfamiliar. Don Johnson was the guy who won upwards of $6m playing blackjack. Is there a new version of Basic Strategy that he used?
not really anything to get excited about and
I doubt he used any kind of 'new' basic strategy.
DJ
$1 million to casino
$100,000 wagers
10 betting units
won $15 million or 150 betting units
(had some 'deal' about a loss rebate per session)
Joe Smooth (playing basic strategy and getting free drinks)
buying in for $50
making $5 wagers (10 betting units)
won $750 or 150 betting units
(had NO 'deal' about a loss rebate)
DJ and JS both won 150 betting units (both were lucky)
seen it happen many times
no one cares about Joe Smooth or DJ
If they do care, that is fine
Quote: FCBLComishI think there is a key piece of information that people are claiming is true that is not. Where did anyone find that Don Johnson won that money on three trips without a losing trip?
Don had many "trips" which he could end whenever he wanted. He received $50,000 in "show up money" which is equivalent to the free play that casinos give out to many of their patrons weekly.
If he hit his "win point" he stopped and took the money. If he hit his "loss point", he stopped, got his rebate, and then ended his trip. He could start back the next day with a new trip.
His winnings were the aggregate of all those trips.
As I heard the story, it unfolded over months. First time I heard of this was when someone on Ken Smith's forum noticed a huge drop in BJ revenue as reported to the State. I believe it was ongoing at the time, but I didn't follow it. A poster named Flash was the first I remember filling in some details. He may have had a host in common with the big player.
Quote: PinkJackI think someone needs to take another crack at the B/S chart. With this time assuming that there'll be a variation after each hit. So maybe after 3 hits. I'm a 14 v/s Dealer 7. It's best to hit. Or after 4 hits I'm a 14 v/s Dealer 10. Stay.
If someone is familiar with Genetic Algorithms and knows how to make modification to the code shared in this article. I think we'll have an answer once and for all.
article_genetic_algorithms
PinkJack,
This problem has already been solved. This link:
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/free-blackjack-combinatorial-analyzer/
provided access to a free Combinatorial Analysis program written by MGP. This software will tell you precisely how to play any hand, given the cards already seen in the hand. For example, it will tell you to stand on 9,6,A vs. X, but hit 9,5,2 vs. X in a 6D game, and it will tell you the precise EV for each situation.
I have used MGP's program many times over the years to perform various types of analyses.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
