slovelace
slovelace
Joined: Oct 27, 2010
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October 27th, 2010 at 11:20:27 AM permalink
I have been thoroughly impressed with everything within the Wizard of Odds site. I love the free play table. I am keenly aware that there are no betting "systems" that work. I simply have a question regarding a betting strategy. On the come out roll lay a bet on the 4 and 10 (don't). If it sevens obviously you win. If it does not 7, then take the bet down until a 7 out and then repeat the process. It is very time consuming waiting for a seven, then betting on a seven on the come out. Any merit to this idea?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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October 27th, 2010 at 11:47:04 AM permalink
generally I avoid taking bets down willy nilly, seems to be a bad practice

others have mentioned avoiding boredom on the craps table, but the alternative is to risk money... so you either risk money or boredom, one or the other
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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October 27th, 2010 at 12:08:09 PM permalink
Quote: slovelace

I have been thoroughly impressed with everything within the Wizard of Odds site. I love the free play table. I am keenly aware that there are no betting "systems" that work. I simply have a question regarding a betting strategy. On the come out roll lay a bet on the 4 and 10 (don't). If it sevens obviously you win. If it does not 7, then take the bet down until a 7 out and then repeat the process. It is very time consuming waiting for a seven, then betting on a seven on the come out. Any merit to this idea?



There are six ways to lose 11 units on the come out (1-3, 2-2, 3-1, 4-6, 5-5, 6-4). There are six ways (any seven) to win 10 units on the come out. Can you see the house still has an edge?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
FatGeezus
FatGeezus
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October 27th, 2010 at 12:51:05 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

There are six ways to lose 11 units on the come out (1-3, 2-2, 3-1, 4-6, 5-5, 6-4). There are six ways (any seven) to win 10 units on the come out. Can you see the house still has an edge?



This is wrong. You cannot lose both lay bets on the come out.

You cannot lose your lay bet on the number 10 if the 1-3, 2-2, 3-1 is thrown.

You cannot lose your lay bet on the number 4 if the 4-6, 5-5, 6-4 is thrown.

However, you can win both lay bets if the 7 is thrown on the come out.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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October 27th, 2010 at 1:08:30 PM permalink
Considering all 36 combinations, when you lay the 4 and 10, you have 6 different ways to lose, as well as 6 different ways to win.

However, when you win, your two bets are paid less than what a single loss would have cost, so it's still a losing proposition.

For more info: http://wizardofodds.com/craps
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
7outlineaway
7outlineaway
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October 27th, 2010 at 2:20:13 PM permalink
You may want to head to the Santa Ana Star in New Mexico to bet this way. No commission buys and lays on 4 and 10 there (ie, a $50 lay pays $25, etc).
guido111
guido111
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October 27th, 2010 at 2:41:12 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Considering all 36 combinations, when you lay the 4 and 10, you have 6 different ways to lose, as well as 6 different ways to win.
However, when you win, your two bets are paid less than what a single loss would have cost, so it's still a losing proposition.


First table are Lay bets vig paid on a win.
Second is vig paid at the time of the bet.
All 36 dice combinations show the resulting house edge.
ways#$40 lay 4$40 Lay10Pays $19
1200
2300
34-1200 
4500
5600
67114114 
5800
4900
3100-120 
21100
11200
 net-6-6handle
 total-12720
 house edge-0.016667



ways#$41 lay 4$41 Lay10Pays $20
1200 
2300 
34-1230 
4500 
5600 
67114114 
5800 
4900 
3100-123 
21100 
11200 
 net-9-9handle
  total-18738
   house edge-0.02439

The below table show the probabilities of a # of successes per 36 rolls.
You have almost a 40% chance of getting 7 or more 7s in 36 come out rolls that would give you a profit.
You have more than a 41% chance of getting 2 or less 4 or 10s in 36 come out rolls that would also give you a profit.
Perfect 36  
# orexactly eachProbabilityagainst or lessor more#
2,12137.31%62.69%036.27%226.42%100.00%2,12
3,11227.85%72.15%139.83%332.32%100.00%3,11
4,10323.40%76.60%241.34%435.26%100.00%4,10
5,9420.72%79.28%342.19%537.09%100.00%5,9
6,8518.90%81.10%442.73%638.37%100.00%6,8
7617.59%82.41%543.09%739.33%100.00%7


In a WinCraps simulation of 240 dice rolls per session (2 to 2.5 hours of play) and 10,000 sessions, one would show these results:

($40 lay bets, vig paid up front)
55.54% losing sessions
44.46% winning sessions
session mean: -30.64
SD: 193.00
Average win session: $141
Average lose session: -$168
Largest Win: 675.
Largest Loss: -750.
House Edge: -2.08

AND...
($40 lay bets, vig paid on a win only)
53.28% losing sessions
46.71% winning sessions
session mean: -22.00
SD: 191.
Average win session: $144
Average lose session: -$161
Largest Win: 678.
Largest Loss: -728.
House Edge: -1.28

AND...
($40 lay bets, No vig paid)
45.35% losing sessions
46.72% winning sessions
7.9% broke-even sessions
session mean: +5.31
SD: 197.
Average win session: $173
Average lose session: -$166.64
House Edge: +.37%
Note: This 10,000 session ended with a $53,120 profit
same RNG seed used for the 3 simulations.
Reason why the casino should always have a house edge built into each wager.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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October 27th, 2010 at 3:25:11 PM permalink
Quote: FatGeezus

This is wrong. You cannot lose both lay bets on the come out.



Sorry, I didn't say you would lose both. As noted above, the lay requires you to risk 11 units to win 5 on each of the four and the ten.


Quote: FatGeezus

You cannot lose your lay bet on the number 10 if the 1-3, 2-2, 3-1 is thrown.



But you will lose the "no four" (-11 units)

Quote: FatGeezus

You cannot lose your lay bet on the number 4 if the 4-6, 5-5, 6-4 is thrown.



But you will lose the "no ten" (-11 units)

Quote: FatGeezus

However, you can win both lay bets if the 7 is thrown on the come out.



And you will win 5 units on the four and 5 units on the ten, for a total win of 10.

To summarize, any four or ten on the come out (six ways to make them) you will lose 11 units on the one that comes. If a seven on the come out (six ways to make it), you will win both lay bets, but only win 10 units total (five from the 11 unit lay on the four, and five from the 11 unit lay on the ten.)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
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October 27th, 2010 at 3:34:45 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

However, when you win, your two bets are paid less than what a single loss would have cost, so it's still a losing proposition.


The reason for that being that the bettor will win his bet two times as often as he loses it. A not insignificant factor.
FatGeezus
FatGeezus
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October 28th, 2010 at 9:04:43 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Sorry, I didn't say you would lose both. As noted above, the lay requires you to risk 11 units to win 5 on each of the four and the ten.



Could you explain how you risk "11 units" on each when you lay the four and the ten.

I always thought you paid 5% commission on the amount that you will win.

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