others have mentioned avoiding boredom on the craps table, but the alternative is to risk money... so you either risk money or boredom, one or the other

Quote:slovelaceI have been thoroughly impressed with everything within the Wizard of Odds site. I love the free play table. I am keenly aware that there are no betting "systems" that work. I simply have a question regarding a betting strategy. On the come out roll lay a bet on the 4 and 10 (don't). If it sevens obviously you win. If it does not 7, then take the bet down until a 7 out and then repeat the process. It is very time consuming waiting for a seven, then betting on a seven on the come out. Any merit to this idea?

There are six ways to lose 11 units on the come out (1-3, 2-2, 3-1, 4-6, 5-5, 6-4). There are six ways (any seven) to win 10 units on the come out. Can you see the house still has an edge?

Quote:AyecarumbaThere are six ways to lose 11 units on the come out (1-3, 2-2, 3-1, 4-6, 5-5, 6-4). There are six ways (any seven) to win 10 units on the come out. Can you see the house still has an edge?

This is wrong. You cannot lose both lay bets on the come out.

You cannot lose your lay bet on the number 10 if the 1-3, 2-2, 3-1 is thrown.

You cannot lose your lay bet on the number 4 if the 4-6, 5-5, 6-4 is thrown.

However, you can win both lay bets if the 7 is thrown on the come out.

However, when you win, your two bets are paid less than what a single loss would have cost, so it's still a losing proposition.

For more info: http://wizardofodds.com/craps

Quote:DJTeddyBearConsidering all 36 combinations, when you lay the 4 and 10, you have 6 different ways to lose, as well as 6 different ways to win.

However, when you win, your two bets are paid less than what a single loss would have cost, so it's still a losing proposition.

First table are Lay bets vig paid on a win.

Second is vig paid at the time of the bet.

All 36 dice combinations show the resulting house edge.

ways | # | $40 lay 4 | $40 Lay10 | Pays $19 |
---|---|---|---|---|

1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |

2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |

3 | 4 | -120 | 0 | |

4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |

5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |

6 | 7 | 114 | 114 | |

5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | |

4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |

3 | 10 | 0 | -120 | |

2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | |

1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |

net | -6 | -6 | handle | |

total | -12 | 720 | ||

house edge | -0.016667 |

ways | # | $41 lay 4 | $41 Lay10 | Pays $20 |
---|---|---|---|---|

1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |

2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |

3 | 4 | -123 | 0 | |

4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |

5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |

6 | 7 | 114 | 114 | |

5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | |

4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |

3 | 10 | 0 | -123 | |

2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | |

1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |

net | -9 | -9 | handle | |

total | -18 | 738 | ||

house edge | -0.02439 |

The below table show the probabilities of a # of successes per 36 rolls.

You have almost a 40% chance of getting 7 or more 7s in 36 come out rolls that would give you a profit.

You have more than a 41% chance of getting 2 or less 4 or 10s in 36 come out rolls that would also give you a profit.

Perfect 36 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

# or | exactly each | Probability | against | or less | or more | # | |||

2,12 | 1 | 37.31% | 62.69% | 0 | 36.27% | 2 | 26.42% | 100.00% | 2,12 |

3,11 | 2 | 27.85% | 72.15% | 1 | 39.83% | 3 | 32.32% | 100.00% | 3,11 |

4,10 | 3 | 23.40% | 76.60% | 2 | 41.34% | 4 | 35.26% | 100.00% | 4,10 |

5,9 | 4 | 20.72% | 79.28% | 3 | 42.19% | 5 | 37.09% | 100.00% | 5,9 |

6,8 | 5 | 18.90% | 81.10% | 4 | 42.73% | 6 | 38.37% | 100.00% | 6,8 |

7 | 6 | 17.59% | 82.41% | 5 | 43.09% | 7 | 39.33% | 100.00% | 7 |

In a WinCraps simulation of 240 dice rolls per session (2 to 2.5 hours of play) and 10,000 sessions, one would show these results:

($40 lay bets, vig paid up front)

55.54% losing sessions

44.46% winning sessions

session mean: -30.64

SD: 193.00

Average win session: $141

Average lose session: -$168

Largest Win: 675.

Largest Loss: -750.

House Edge: -2.08

AND...

($40 lay bets, vig paid on a win only)

53.28% losing sessions

46.71% winning sessions

session mean: -22.00

SD: 191.

Average win session: $144

Average lose session: -$161

Largest Win: 678.

Largest Loss: -728.

House Edge: -1.28

AND...

($40 lay bets, No vig paid)

45.35% losing sessions

46.72% winning sessions

7.9% broke-even sessions

session mean: +5.31

SD: 197.

Average win session: $173

Average lose session: -$166.64

House Edge: +.37%

Note: This 10,000 session ended with a $53,120 profit

same RNG seed used for the 3 simulations.

Reason why the casino should always have a house edge built into each wager.

Quote:FatGeezusThis is wrong. You cannot lose both lay bets on the come out.

Sorry, I didn't say you would lose both. As noted above, the lay requires you to risk 11 units to win 5 on each of the four and the ten.

Quote:FatGeezusYou cannot lose your lay bet on the number 10 if the 1-3, 2-2, 3-1 is thrown.

But you will lose the "no four" (-11 units)

Quote:FatGeezusYou cannot lose your lay bet on the number 4 if the 4-6, 5-5, 6-4 is thrown.

But you will lose the "no ten" (-11 units)

Quote:FatGeezusHowever, you can win both lay bets if the 7 is thrown on the come out.

And you will win 5 units on the four and 5 units on the ten, for a total win of 10.

To summarize, any four or ten on the come out (six ways to make them) you will lose 11 units on the one that comes. If a seven on the come out (six ways to make it), you will win both lay bets, but only win 10 units total (five from the 11 unit lay on the four, and five from the 11 unit lay on the ten.)

Quote:DJTeddyBearHowever, when you win, your two bets are paid less than what a single loss would have cost, so it's still a losing proposition.

The reason for that being that the bettor will win his bet two times as often as he loses it. A not insignificant factor.

Quote:AyecarumbaSorry, I didn't say you would lose both. As noted above, the lay requires you to risk 11 units to win 5 on each of the four and the ten.

Could you explain how you risk "11 units" on each when you lay the four and the ten.

I always thought you paid 5% commission on the amount that you will win.