Craps Bet
others have mentioned avoiding boredom on the craps table, but the alternative is to risk money... so you either risk money or boredom, one or the other
Quote: slovelaceI have been thoroughly impressed with everything within the Wizard of Odds site. I love the free play table. I am keenly aware that there are no betting "systems" that work. I simply have a question regarding a betting strategy. On the come out roll lay a bet on the 4 and 10 (don't). If it sevens obviously you win. If it does not 7, then take the bet down until a 7 out and then repeat the process. It is very time consuming waiting for a seven, then betting on a seven on the come out. Any merit to this idea?
There are six ways to lose 11 units on the come out (1-3, 2-2, 3-1, 4-6, 5-5, 6-4). There are six ways (any seven) to win 10 units on the come out. Can you see the house still has an edge?
Quote: AyecarumbaThere are six ways to lose 11 units on the come out (1-3, 2-2, 3-1, 4-6, 5-5, 6-4). There are six ways (any seven) to win 10 units on the come out. Can you see the house still has an edge?
This is wrong. You cannot lose both lay bets on the come out.
You cannot lose your lay bet on the number 10 if the 1-3, 2-2, 3-1 is thrown.
You cannot lose your lay bet on the number 4 if the 4-6, 5-5, 6-4 is thrown.
However, you can win both lay bets if the 7 is thrown on the come out.
However, when you win, your two bets are paid less than what a single loss would have cost, so it's still a losing proposition.
For more info: https://wizardofodds.com/craps
Quote: DJTeddyBearConsidering all 36 combinations, when you lay the 4 and 10, you have 6 different ways to lose, as well as 6 different ways to win.
However, when you win, your two bets are paid less than what a single loss would have cost, so it's still a losing proposition.
First table are Lay bets vig paid on a win.
Second is vig paid at the time of the bet.
All 36 dice combinations show the resulting house edge.
| ways | # | $40 lay 4 | $40 Lay10 | Pays $19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 4 | -120 | 0 | |
| 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 7 | 114 | 114 | |
| 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 10 | 0 | -120 | |
| 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| net | -6 | -6 | handle | |
| total | -12 | 720 | ||
| house edge | -0.016667 |
| ways | # | $41 lay 4 | $41 Lay10 | Pays $20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 4 | -123 | 0 | |
| 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 7 | 114 | 114 | |
| 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 10 | 0 | -123 | |
| 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| net | -9 | -9 | handle | |
| total | -18 | 738 | ||
| house edge | -0.02439 |
The below table show the probabilities of a # of successes per 36 rolls.
You have almost a 40% chance of getting 7 or more 7s in 36 come out rolls that would give you a profit.
You have more than a 41% chance of getting 2 or less 4 or 10s in 36 come out rolls that would also give you a profit.
| Perfect 36 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # or | exactly each | Probability | against | or less | or more | # | |||
| 2,12 | 1 | 37.31% | 62.69% | 0 | 36.27% | 2 | 26.42% | 100.00% | 2,12 |
| 3,11 | 2 | 27.85% | 72.15% | 1 | 39.83% | 3 | 32.32% | 100.00% | 3,11 |
| 4,10 | 3 | 23.40% | 76.60% | 2 | 41.34% | 4 | 35.26% | 100.00% | 4,10 |
| 5,9 | 4 | 20.72% | 79.28% | 3 | 42.19% | 5 | 37.09% | 100.00% | 5,9 |
| 6,8 | 5 | 18.90% | 81.10% | 4 | 42.73% | 6 | 38.37% | 100.00% | 6,8 |
| 7 | 6 | 17.59% | 82.41% | 5 | 43.09% | 7 | 39.33% | 100.00% | 7 |
In a WinCraps simulation of 240 dice rolls per session (2 to 2.5 hours of play) and 10,000 sessions, one would show these results:
($40 lay bets, vig paid up front)
55.54% losing sessions
44.46% winning sessions
session mean: -30.64
SD: 193.00
Average win session: $141
Average lose session: -$168
Largest Win: 675.
Largest Loss: -750.
House Edge: -2.08
AND...
($40 lay bets, vig paid on a win only)
53.28% losing sessions
46.71% winning sessions
session mean: -22.00
SD: 191.
Average win session: $144
Average lose session: -$161
Largest Win: 678.
Largest Loss: -728.
House Edge: -1.28
AND...
($40 lay bets, No vig paid)
45.35% losing sessions
46.72% winning sessions
7.9% broke-even sessions
session mean: +5.31
SD: 197.
Average win session: $173
Average lose session: -$166.64
House Edge: +.37%
Note: This 10,000 session ended with a $53,120 profit
same RNG seed used for the 3 simulations.
Reason why the casino should always have a house edge built into each wager.
Quote: FatGeezusThis is wrong. You cannot lose both lay bets on the come out.
Sorry, I didn't say you would lose both. As noted above, the lay requires you to risk 11 units to win 5 on each of the four and the ten.
Quote: FatGeezusYou cannot lose your lay bet on the number 10 if the 1-3, 2-2, 3-1 is thrown.
But you will lose the "no four" (-11 units)
Quote: FatGeezusYou cannot lose your lay bet on the number 4 if the 4-6, 5-5, 6-4 is thrown.
But you will lose the "no ten" (-11 units)
Quote: FatGeezusHowever, you can win both lay bets if the 7 is thrown on the come out.
And you will win 5 units on the four and 5 units on the ten, for a total win of 10.
To summarize, any four or ten on the come out (six ways to make them) you will lose 11 units on the one that comes. If a seven on the come out (six ways to make it), you will win both lay bets, but only win 10 units total (five from the 11 unit lay on the four, and five from the 11 unit lay on the ten.)
Quote: DJTeddyBearHowever, when you win, your two bets are paid less than what a single loss would have cost, so it's still a losing proposition.
The reason for that being that the bettor will win his bet two times as often as he loses it. A not insignificant factor.
Quote: AyecarumbaSorry, I didn't say you would lose both. As noted above, the lay requires you to risk 11 units to win 5 on each of the four and the ten.
Could you explain how you risk "11 units" on each when you lay the four and the ten.
I always thought you paid 5% commission on the amount that you will win.
Quote: AyecarumbaSorry, I didn't say you would lose both. As noted above, the lay requires you to risk 11 units to win 5 on each of the four and the ten.
The word "unit" should not be used here.
A Lay 4 or 10 does NOT require 11 UNITS to win 5.
A Lay 4 or 10 does require 11 Dollars to win 5.
In some casinos, at a $5 min table and without 50cent chips, the minimum bet on a Lay 4 or 10 would require $11 to win $5. The bet would be $10 plus a $1 vig.
When making less than a $40 Lay 4 or 10 most all casinos require the vig to be paid up front.
a Lay 4 or 10 for $20 would still require a $1 vig so $21 would pay $10 (not risking 11 units to win 5)
a Lay 4 or 10 for $30 would still require a $1 vig so $31 would pay $15
But, any bet less the a $40 Lay on the 4 or 10 increases the house edge.
$11 to win $5 is a horrible bet compared to a proper unit Lay.
house edge is 1.5/16.5= 9.09%
way worse than a 1.67% or a 2.44% proper unit Lay 4 or 10 ($40 to win $19 or $41 to win $20)
4.76% HA $21 Lay 4 or 10
3.23% HA $31 Lay 4 or 10
Quote: FatGeezusCould you explain how you risk "11 units" on each when you lay the four and the ten.
I always thought you paid 5% commission on the amount that you will win.
Usually, I have paid the commission up front. However, even if the commission is only collected on a win, you effectively get paid less than $5, if you lay less than 11 units. the 5% vig will be deducted from your winnings, so you will risk 10 and get paid only 4 (or risk 40 to win 19 if you want to get exactly 5%).
Recap:
On the come out roll, lay a $40 "no four", and a $40 "no ten". You have a total of $80 in action. There are three possible outcomes that affect your wagers:
1. Shooter throws a four. There are three combinations (of the 36 possible combinations) that add up to four. Result: You lose $40 on your "no four" lay.
2. Shooter throws a ten. There are three combinations that add up to ten. Result: You lose $40 on your "no ten" lay.
3. Shooter throws a seven. There are six combinations that add up to seven. Result: You win both lay bets, but have to pay 5% vig, so your net win is $38.
Six outcomes will cost you S40, and six will win you $38. This is where the house will make their money. As guido described above, it is still a -EV play that will eventually grind to a net loss (or quickly grind to a net loss if you hit a bunch of fours and tens).
With a little luck, these bets could work at the casino in New Mexico that does not collect a commission, effectively letting the action go at the true odds. I don't know how they can stay in business... perhaps there is some other place where they make their money (must have a line bet?).
The Wizard of Odds site has a Craps page that describes these bets, and also provides a tip for lowering the house advantage if the vig is rounded down. See it here.
Quote: guido111The word "unit" should not be used here.
A Lay 4 or 10 does NOT require 11 UNITS to win 5.
A Lay 4 or 10 does require 11 Dollars to win 5.
In some casinos, at a $5 min table and without 50cent chips, the minimum bet on a Lay 4 or 10 would require $11 to win $5. The bet would be $10 plus a $1 vig.
When making less than a $40 Lay 4 or 10 most all casinos require the vig to be paid up front.
a Lay 4 or 10 for $20 would still require a $1 vig so $21 would pay $10 (not risking 11 units to win 5)
a Lay 4 or 10 for $30 would still require a $1 vig so $31 would pay $15
But, any bet less the a $40 Lay on the 4 or 10 increases the house edge.
$11 to win $5 is a horrible bet compared to a proper unit Lay.
house edge is 1.5/16.5= 9.09%
way worse than a 1.67% or a 2.44% proper unit Lay 4 or 10 ($40 to win $19 or $41 to win $20)
4.76% HA $21 Lay 4 or 10
3.23% HA $31 Lay 4 or 10
Thank you for the correction/clarification guido!
