Galatrax
Galatrax
Joined: Feb 9, 2017
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October 13th, 2018 at 7:59:10 PM permalink
I have a strategy called Monacout Craps can someone please run it through a simulator or run the math to tell me the outcome if it's a positive or negative return please! Strategy is:. lay 4=1880,hard 4=275,horn bet=40,place 5&9=100,place 6&8=126,buy 10=100
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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October 13th, 2018 at 8:13:08 PM permalink
Quote: Galatrax

I have a strategy called Monacout Craps can someone please run it through a simulator or run the math to tell me the outcome if it's a positive or negative return please! Strategy is:. lay 4=1880,hard 4=275,horn bet=40,place 5&9=100,place 6&8=126,buy 10=100

you want the expected value?
easy
negative

you want, say over X number of rolls what your chance of showing a profit is?
that requires more info, like starting stake, do all bets work every roll, how many rolls and so on

hope you do not want any math shown
good luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Galatrax
Galatrax
Joined: Feb 9, 2017
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October 13th, 2018 at 8:15:35 PM permalink
100 rolls all bets working enough starting stake for doing strategy twice
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Oct 13, 2018
Galatrax
Galatrax
Joined: Feb 9, 2017
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October 13th, 2018 at 8:25:33 PM permalink
100 rolls and then 5 rolls ,all bets working always and enough starting stake to do strategy twice
Venthus
Venthus
Joined: Dec 10, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
Galatrax
October 13th, 2018 at 9:26:48 PM permalink
Try and work it through without complex math: The first video that came up on Monacout straight up says that you have a (2/36) chance of -2155 and a (34/36) chance of... not. Of the not-losing, you have a (7/36) chance of effectively pushing (+5 or +8). A 2/12 (2/36) wins +270; the remaining (25/36) yields approximately +100. Add up those results and you end up with something very negative.

With slightly more math, the odds of not-rolling a 4 in 5 rolls is (34/36)^4, or ~75%. Dice have no memory, and that cuts both ways: You could just as easily roll easy 4 all night (losing on each one), as you could get ~+90 on each.

I'm not sure which part is better; how the guy in the video emphasizes that for this to work, you go in and play minimum until it's your turn to shoot, and you whip out this strategy, or that it's a guaranteed 500$ in 5 rolls. Well, not GUARANTEED, you could throw a 7. Which is more like a push. Or, uhm, mumblemumble, something about a four? BUT ANYWAYS...
Last edited by: Venthus on Oct 13, 2018
Galatrax
Galatrax
Joined: Feb 9, 2017
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October 13th, 2018 at 9:41:44 PM permalink
So do you think this strategy is any good or no?
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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October 13th, 2018 at 10:23:44 PM permalink
Quote: Galatrax

So do you think this strategy is any good or no?

Another amusing way to lose money. That's all.
All strategies like this will achieve will be to change the shape of the graph of your declining bankroll. But decline it will. In this instance with a nice lumpy upward trend punctuated by some colossal and destructive plunges to oblivion.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDearodiousgambit
October 14th, 2018 at 9:59:08 AM permalink
Quote: Galatrax

So do you think this strategy is any good or no?

I figured this was a youtube shown system. nothing NEW here.
the person coming up with this should know this was tried over 50 years ago and has been pushed many times since.
Seen it tried in Reno a few times and it crashed and burned a few times
enough to send the player running

but, some like to recycle trash and display it as trash.
such a waste, but for hit n run
a thrill a roll

with the best payoffs and vigs
i get this SYSTEM has an average loss per roll of about $29.28
probrollgainlosslossnetreturn
1/362270..2707.5
2/363120..1206.666666667
1/36hard41925-1880.451.25
2/36easy40-1880-275-2155-119.7222222
4/365140-40.10011.11111111
5/366147-40.10714.86111111
6/367940-47-867264.333333333
5/368147-40.10714.86111111
4/369140-40.10011.11111111
3/361095-40.554.583333333
2/3611120..1206.666666667
1/3612270..2707.5
1.....-29.27777778


you have to decide if THAT is any
good or bad.

have fun
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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October 15th, 2018 at 12:38:17 PM permalink
I calculate the expectation for your "strategy" as follows:

Average bet per roll = $698
House advantage = 2.79%
Standard deviation = 2.57
Assume commission paid on win only for buy10/lay 4

So for 100 rolls your expectation is to lose $1,947 with a SD of $17,934

Comes out to a 45.7% chance of being ahead after 100 rolls.

Your strategy is statistically congruent to a bet of $698 with a 1 in 8 chance of winning and a payout of 7.78 for 1. If you want to simulate some risk of ruin scenarios you could easily use this bet.

I did this calculation sort of redneck style / back of an envelope and haven't verified the numbers ...but at first glance they appear reasonable.
Last edited by: Ace2 on Oct 15, 2018
Itís all about making that GTA

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