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mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 18th, 2010 at 10:08:04 PM permalink
Quote: brucelamon

Gold Coast has single deck $5 "Fun" 21 game at two tables with rules I can't remember completely but include: even money blackjack, diamond suited blackjack pays 2 to 1, player cards dealt face up, double or surrender on any number of cards (can't remember if early surrender allowed), five card 21 automatic winner, six card unbusted hand automatic winner, unlimited number of splits, unrestricted play on split aces. I see from the site that even money blackjack is -2.27% but I was surprised how often I was taking advantage of such things as surrendering a stiff double-downed hand v. a 10 or doubling on three card hands. Is there any chance this is a positive expectation game or even a good game?



No. It stinks.

Taking the rules in order:

Diamond suited blackjacks are only about 1/16th of all blackjacks, so you don't gain much by the extra payout.
Double on any number of cards is mildly beneficial, more so if doubles are allowed after splits.
It's probably late surrender, and that is a very small benefit since you only want to surrender in a few very specific situations anyway.
Five card 21 automatic winner isn't that great since the hand is rare, and you would win with it the vast majority of the time anyway.
Six card charlie is also pretty rare, and the gain from the automatic winner is small since you probably have a very good hand anyway.
Unlimited resplits are nice, but you only get the chance to resplit about 1/25 of the time.
Multiple hits on split aces is good. That adds about 0.1%.

Surrendering a double down hand vs. a 10 increases the winning chances of that hand from 22% to 25%. (Surrendering is equivalent to winning 1/4 of the time.) Not a particularly significant gain, especially since the situation is relatively rare.

I don't know the +EV values of most of these rules (some are found on the Wiz's website), but most of them give very small gains, due to the rarity of the hands in question. The loss of 1/2 a bet on blackjacks is a crusher; I wouldn't expect that you get back any more than 1% from all those favorable rules.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
98Clubs
98Clubs
Joined: Jun 3, 2010
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October 21st, 2010 at 2:33:58 AM permalink
Removed as a new thread
98Clubs
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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October 22nd, 2010 at 8:44:54 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
BigBird
BigBird
Joined: Oct 23, 2010
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October 23rd, 2010 at 7:24:36 AM permalink
I was just wondering if anyone knows where to go online to buy a software program that computes the basic strategy for the newer versions of casino poker
with their varying rules and paytables. Games such as russian poker and advanced caribbean stud poker and progressives ect.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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October 23rd, 2010 at 7:42:06 AM permalink
Let me repeat my request that you quit asking questions in this thread, and let it die. If you want to pose a new question, please make a new thread for it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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