zeldastrike321
zeldastrike321
Joined: Apr 10, 2018
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April 26th, 2018 at 8:02:44 PM permalink
Quote: SiegfriedRoy

There are winning strategies such as card counting for blackjack, and other methods like hole carding for blackjack and other card games. You can win short-term and run away with your winnings. Your method is as good as my roulette method of betting random numbers. This is not us telling you your strategy doesn't work, it's probability and math. The notion of hot numbers is false. The ball has no memory. It will land anywhere with equal chance. The repeat numbers you're seeing is variance. If anybody can predict variance on this forum, we would be in the casinos raking in hundreds of thousands or millions. There is a reason why casinos spend tens of thousands of dollars to put a board up there with the history of numbers. It's to give the misINFORMED the illusion that there is a pattern. It makes you want to bet with more confidence. Casinos wouldn't do anything if they knew it gives the players advantage (just think about it). You're not the first to talk about trends and hot numbers in roulette and you won't be the last. I am really not in the business of discouraging you to not make money. However, I'm soft hearted and hate to see many members come to this forum thinking they have a "system" and go lose their house. There is a reason why the Wizard of Vegas has a prize for somebody who comes up with a winning system. I think the prize is $10K. Nobody has been able to crack it in the long-run. The reason is math. You're probably going to come back and say you were only talking about "short-term." Even in short-term your "system" is not a "system." It's just a faulty way of thinking there are hot numbers when all it is coincidence and probability. Can the number 3 hit twice in a row? Sure it can. 3 times? Absolutely. Three times in 10 rolls? Yes, we're all seen them. That doesn't mean there is going to be another 3 in the next 10, 20 or 30 rolls.



what about those individuals who tracked tens of thousands of spins at a roulette wheel and then found biased number through a computer application and played those numbers and won hundreds of thousands or millions. There's a documentary on youtube about it. Do such biased wheels still exist?


"In the early 1990s, Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo believed that casino roulette wheels were not perfectly random, and that by recording the results and analysing them with a computer, he could gain an edge on the house by predicting that certain numbers were more likely to occur next than the 1-in-36 odds offered by the house suggested. This he did at the Casino de Madrid in Madrid, Spain, winning 600,000 euros in a single day, and one million euros in total. Legal action against him by the casino was unsuccessful, it being ruled that the casino should fix its wheel.[11][12]

To defend against exploits like these, many casinos use tracking software, use wheels with new designs, rotate wheel heads, and randomly rotate pocket rings.[13]" from wikipedia
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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AxelWolf
April 26th, 2018 at 8:08:36 PM permalink
Biased wheels are a form of advantage play. They are not betting systems.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
SiegfriedRoy
SiegfriedRoy
Joined: Sep 23, 2014
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AxelWolf
April 26th, 2018 at 11:59:37 PM permalink
Zelda,

Ibeatyouraces is right. It is a form of Advance Play. IF it is even possibly today, you’ll need a team to scout and record all the roulette tables and their rolls to probably tens of thousands to rolls to see if there is even a statistically significance to it being biased. I’m not as mathematically inclined like many of these experts are but I may be underestimating the number of tens of thousands. It may be hundreds of thousands perhaps. Maybe this will paint a better picture. A larger sample size vs your short term “hot numbers” are vastly different.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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AxelWolf
April 27th, 2018 at 1:40:45 AM permalink
Quote: zeldastrike321

Why are people excited to gamble and go rushing to Vegas and casinos if the only outlook they have is losing?

The only outlook is uncertainty: The knowledge that you don't know if a wager will leave you richer or poorer. Adrenaline either way.
Quote:

What's the point of casinos and even this forum if the whole vibe is negativity from gambling?

Nothing negative about understanding the nature of probability.
Quote:

I know there are many losers but have there been any winners who have ever beaten the casino?

I've won more than I've lost. Does that make me a winner? Does that mean I've beaten the casino? I was just lucky. It was fun, so nothing to explain or justify.
There are some players of skill games such as poker and sports betters, who may be at an advantage. They are extremely rare. There are con men who make a living out of selling useless systems to gullible fools. That latter group are not welcome here. Anyone ignorant enough to try to push martingale or similar systems here as anything more than a fun way of losing money, will get their ideas shredded and rightly, ridiculed.
Some members here know how to exploit certain casino weaknesses. These are the true advantage players. That includes a subset who are skilled enough to get an edge in blackjack. There are also fools here who claim to be able to beat craps or roulette. They know who they are and some post here, spouting nonsense. just to be mischievous.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
vipescortinduba
vipescortinduba
Joined: Apr 27, 2018
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April 27th, 2018 at 3:39:58 AM permalink
you are gorgeous
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 27th, 2018 at 4:10:48 AM permalink
Roulette is so boring. How could anyone play it for more than a couple of spins?

Craps, Bac, and blackjack (unless you are counting), same thing. I can play all of those games for 15-20 minutes, and then it just gets repetitive.

Slot machines at least have fun pictures and TV clips. (I can only play those for 15 minutes too).

I think I might be getting too old for all of this.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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April 27th, 2018 at 6:06:57 AM permalink
Quote: vipescortinduba

you are gorgeous

Huh? Did I leave my webcam on again?
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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April 27th, 2018 at 6:17:40 AM permalink
Quote: zeldastrike321

wheel bias or dealer signature



If there is a wheel bias and you correctly identify it, then yes, you could make money consistently. However, seeing a single number twice in a small sample is WAY more likely to be random than it is to be evidence of a true wheel bias.

If for some ungodly reason I was ever forced to play roulette your idea can be no worse than any other, and has the tiniest chance of actually being better.
Nathan
Nathan
Joined: Sep 2, 2016
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April 27th, 2018 at 6:24:31 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

No. There is no "winning" strategy for roulette. You will always lose in the long run.

The best strategy for roulette is only play with the amount you are comfortable losing, and only play to have fun.

The second best strategy for roulette is hope you get lucky early on and win a little bit, then never play roulette again for the rest of your life.



Good point. I've heard countless stories of people who were up big money early on and didn't leave and ended up not only losing all the big money but all or most of their bankroll. I remember a woman on another gambling website saying something like"Within a few minutes I won enough to pay my mortgage and my car payment for this month,but I didn't leave. I wanted to make sure I had enough money to pay next month's mortgage and car payment too. I ended up losing all the money. I could have paid this month off but got greedy and lost it all. I felt so stupid and irresponsible." A guy said a woman won like $5,000 on her very first hand within 5 minutes and she said"I'm not leaving! I just got here!" The guy left the table after she said that. That could end up really badly for her. :/
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
zeldastrike321
zeldastrike321
Joined: Apr 10, 2018
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April 27th, 2018 at 1:17:53 PM permalink
Quote: SiegfriedRoy

Zelda,

Ibeatyouraces is right. It is a form of Advance Play. IF it is even possibly today, you’ll need a team to scout and record all the roulette tables and their rolls to probably tens of thousands to rolls to see if there is even a statistically significance to it being biased. I’m not as mathematically inclined like many of these experts are but I may be underestimating the number of tens of thousands. It may be hundreds of thousands perhaps. Maybe this will paint a better picture. A larger sample size vs your short term “hot numbers” are vastly different.



Yes, your definitely right, the so called "hot numbers" appearing in a very small sample size is not enough to say those numbers are going to appear more often in the future. However, if the possibility of there being a wheel bias is present in most wheels, would it not be worth getting that team to record numbers for tens of thousands of spins. I mean the hard work will pay off when you find those special numbers and start betting and winning large amounts of money?

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