Another Question for the Wizard

Hi Wizard,
Again, great post here, was wondering about a baccarat promotion. Supposed that a casino offered a promotion for EZ baccarat (buy in for 11000, with a 5% bonus of 550), all given in non-neg chips. Since the edge of EZ baccarat banker is around 1.02% rounded up, and we are given the 5% bonus, if I just simply bet the banker at a clip of $100 per hand and play only the non-neg chips until I run out, wouldn't that mean a 3.98% player edge against the house over the long run? Wanted to know if such a promotion is to good to be true....

No. That will not work at all

As in the player has an insane edge, or the casino still has the edge?

Quote: ddrsoba

Hi Wizard,
Again, great post here, was wondering about a baccarat promotion. Supposed that a casino offered a promotion for EZ baccarat (buy in for 11000, with a 5% bonus of 550), all given in non-neg chips. Since the edge of EZ baccarat banker is around 1.02% rounded up, and we are given the 5% bonus, if I just simply bet the banker at a clip of $100 per hand and play only the non-neg chips until I run out, wouldn't that mean a 3.98% player edge against the house over the long run? Wanted to know if such a promotion is to good to be true....

Although, I am neither the Wizard nor the Wizard of Nothing, I think I can answer this question.

First, we have to know the value of a non-negotiable chip on the banker bet in EZ Baccarat. The Wizard does give its value for regular baccarat as 97.63%, but he doesn't give its value for EZ Baccarat.

But using data from the Wizard's page on EZ Baccarat, it's possible to calculate the value of a banker bet non-negotiable chip. I will leave out the details, but I get a value of 97.718%

When you buy $11,000 + $550 = $11,550 in non-negotiable chips, you get 97.718% of $11,550 in value, which is worth $11,286. Therefore your edge is ( 11,286 - 11,000 ) / 11,000 = 2.6%.

So if ur calculations are correct, I just simply buy in, stick to the bet banker on promo chips only until I run out, and its a +2.6% EV?

It doesn’t work
Unless the promo is different you only get a chip when you win and forced to play out the non negotiable Until I️t is lost thus creating a larger requirement as far as cycling through thus creating less ev

Quote: ddrsoba

So if ur calculations are correct, I just simply buy in, stick to the bet banker on promo chips only until I run out, and its a +2.6% EV?

Yes--simply pay $11,000 cash for $11,550 in non-negotiable chips, and stick to the EZ Baccarat banker bet with the non-neg. chips until you run out of them. The expected value of your cashable chip total at the end is 97.718% of $11,550, which is about $11,286. That's $286 expected profit on an $11,000 investment, which is 2.6%.

(By the way, I had said the Wizard didn't give the value of an EZ Baccarat banker non-negotiable chip, but you can find it below the craps values near the middle of his table, as 97.72%.)

If this is correct it’s different than the rolling chips I️ am accustomed to on back promos - are you capped at 11k or can you buy in for 100k?

Do you
Have the exact details
Are you sure you are able to cash out the entire thing and not just the profit - just making sure it’s not the rolling chips program

able to cash out entire thing. its not rolling chips.

Ok then it sounds good