Help settle a bet
Its called key bet roulette, there is an extra slot on a single zero wheel. Called the key bet. If the ball lands there, it awards a random multiplier, from the following values.
20x, 20x, 25x, 30x, 30x, 35x, 40x, 40x, 45x, 50x, 50x, 100x
If we assume each multiplier is equal chance, and the Return To Player is 95.34%
What is the probability of hitting the keybet slot (its not 1/37).
Quote: HeyMrDJHaving a youtube discussion with someone over a roulette variant.
Its called key bet roulette, there is an extra slot on a single zero wheel. Called the key bet. If the ball lands there, it awards a random multiplier, from the following values.
20x, 20x, 25x, 30x, 30x, 35x, 40x, 40x, 45x, 50x, 50x, 100x
If we assume each multiplier is equal chance, and the Return To Player is 94.74%
What is the probability of hitting the keybet slot (its not 1/37).
Wait........what?
First of all -- what value is multiplied?
Even without the "key bet" slot, how do you get a return below 97.29% on a single zero roulette? Oddly enough, the return on double zero roulette is 94.74% (actually a tad lower, due to rounding).
Okay, so I saw a video on youtube on this game. Anyway, there's a "key bet" where you put money on it, and if the key hits, then you get paid that amount. Averages to 40.41666. Also there was a value of "pot", I take it that means a % of each wager gets put into a pot...therefore there's meter movement.
Do you know what the meter movement is?
Quote: RSWait........what?
First of all -- what value is multiplied?
Even without the "key bet" slot, how do you get a return below 97.29% on a single zero roulette? Oddly enough, the return on double zero roulette is 94.74% (actually a tad lower, due to rounding).
Okay, so I saw a video on youtube on this game. Anyway, there's a "key bet" where you put money on it, and if the key hits, then you get paid that amount. Averages to 40.41666. Also there was a value of "pot", I take it that means a % of each wager gets put into a pot...therefore there's meter movement.
Do you know what the meter movement is?
The value you bet on the key bet is multiplied. The RTP of *JUST* the key bet is 95.34%. Effectively if you didnt bet on the keybet spot at all, this game plays just like double zero roulette.
Currently the pot is fixed at 100x and isnt a progressive. So ignore the pot value for now, and use the 100x value.
Quote: HeyMrDJHaving a youtube discussion with someone over a roulette variant.
Its called key bet roulette, there is an extra slot on a single zero wheel. Called the key bet. If the ball lands there, it awards a random multiplier, from the following values.
20x, 20x, 25x, 30x, 30x, 35x, 40x, 40x, 45x, 50x, 50x, 100x
If we assume each multiplier is equal chance, and the Return To Player is 94.74%
What is the probability of hitting the keybet slot (its not 1/37).
why is it not 1/37. If there are 37 equal spots and 1 of them is the key that would make it 1/37
The extra key slot makes it 38.
So... 1/38. Or am I missing something?
At this point you're telling us each slot is not a random chance... If each slot is a "random chance" then it would in fact be 1/38, the same as 00 roulette (which in your previous post you said it is to the player if they don't bet the key slot).Quote: HeyMrDJ...You are right, there are 38 slots, but its not 1 in 38 either...
Quote: RomesAt this point you're telling us each slot is not a random chance... If each slot is a "random chance" then it would in fact be 1/38, the same as 00 roulette (which in your previous post you said it is to the player if they don't bet the key slot).
No, Im saying the key bet is not equal chance, I am saying the multiplier value is equal chance. IF the key bet was 1/38, and the EV of the keybet is 40.4166r then it would be a +EV play just to bet the max on the keybet.
If this bet was available on a real roulette wheel, I would think that they couldn't control the randomness (baring dealer shooting, etc, etc ,etc).Quote: HeyMrDJNo, Im saying the key bet is not equal chance, I am saying the multiplier value is equal chance. IF the key bet was 1/38, and the EV of the keybet is 40.4166r then it would be a +EV play just to bet the max on the keybet.
So what was the bet you're looking for help to resolve?
Quote: BellaingIf there is a spot with 20x multiplier the roulette will be +ev no matter what I think? Since the usual winning for a number is 36 with the multiplier that will be 720 with chances of 1:37.. pretty sweet deal.
no, you dont get 20x what you land on. you get 20x for the key bet only. Its like an extra zero that pays 20x - 100x. Anything less than 35x would be worse than a normal wheel, 20x would be the worst one.
watch this video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSsyAMR2G0k
Quote: rsactuaryI assume on the key bet you aren't allowed to do splits or corners?
The key bet is just a straight up bet, like an extra zero
P(KB & 100x) = P(KeyBet) * P(100x) = (1/38) * (1/12) = 1/456Quote: HeyMrDJits an online roulette wheel, someone else has said the odds of hitting the 100x is 1 in 456, I say its 1 in 509 (1 in 42.4 x 1 in 12)
*The 1/12 is straight from the video, assuming all of the multipliers are "random."
Quote: RomesP(KB & 100x) = P(KeyBet) * P(100x) = (1/38) * (1/12) = 1/456
*The 1/12 is straight from the video, assuming all of the multipliers are "random."
But the probability isnt 1/38. If it was, the RTP would not be 95.34%
How is the probability NOT 1/38? Do they have some special control to NOT let the Key Bet hit at random chance?Quote: HeyMrDJBut the probability isnt 1/38. If it was, the RTP would not be 95.34%
You said in your earlier post that anyone not playing the Key Bet would be like playing 00 roulette where they are 1/38... this makes the assumption that the Key Bet spot is just another random spot on the wheel... which it appears to be from the video at least.
Quote: RomesHow is the probability NOT 1/38? Do they have some special control to NOT let the Key Bet hit at random chance?
yes, this is a digital wheel, played online. So its all RNG based.
If it was 1/38 wouldnt the RTP be something like 1/38 * 40.41666r = 106.35% (which it clearly isn't)
The slots on the wheel are not a true representation of the odds, they have that as a disclaimer.
"Assuming" that the multipliers are all on whatever you bet, and the "Pot" is 100x your bet, I agree the average multiplier would be:
(20+20+25+30+30+35+40+40+45+50+50+100)/12 = 40.42
Also:
What you're saying is it's not RNG based... RNG would indicate "random."Quote: HeyMrDJyes, this is a digital wheel, played online. So its all RNG based.
Quote: RomesI also just noticed something odd... There was a 14 min video I watched of a euro guy playing, and he was betting "more" than the video linked a few posts ago. He would bet $7 on the Key Bet, and the Pot was then $700 (100x). However, in the video linked just now, the guy bet $1, and the pot was $50. I would expect the pot to be $100 if he bet $1... 100x, right? Perhaps they fluff the payouts unless you bet a certain amount?
Also:
What you're saying is it's not RNG based... RNG would indicate "random."
In the video I linked to they have obviously set the pot to 50x, the machine I am having the debate on has the pot set to 100x, some are progressive, but they are being beaten by vulturing.
I still don't think you've told us the actual debate?Quote: HeyMrDJ...In the video I linked to they have obviously set the pot to 50x, the machine I am having the debate on has the pot set to 100x, some are progressive, but they are being beaten by vulturing.
Was it this? "What is the probability of hitting the keybet slot (its not 1/37)."
Then it would be 1/38, ASSUMING a fair RNG to all slots. If it's not fair, then it's not fair and there's no way to tell what kind of gaff they put on it.
Quote: RomesI also just noticed something odd... There was a 14 min video I watched of a euro guy playing, and he was betting "more" than the video linked a few posts ago. He would bet $7 on the Key Bet, and the Pot was then $700 (100x). However, in the video linked just now, the guy bet $1, and the pot was $50. I would expect the pot to be $100 if he bet $1... 100x, right? Perhaps they fluff the payouts unless you bet a certain amount?
"Assuming" that the multipliers are all on whatever you bet, and the "Pot" is 100x your bet, I agree the average multiplier would be:
(20+20+25+30+30+35+40+40+45+50+50+100)/12 = 40.42
Also:
What you're saying is it's not RNG based... RNG would indicate "random."
It is random, but I am saying that the RNG is not applying an equal weight to the keybet slot
Quote: RomesI still don't think you've told us the actual debate?
Was it this? "What is the probability of hitting the keybet slot (its not 1/37)."
Then it would be 1/38, ASSUMING a fair RNG to all slots. If it's not fair, then it's not fair and there's no way to tell what kind of gaff they put on it.
I am saying that if the multipliers are random (1 in 12) that the chance of hitting the key bet CANNOT be 1/38, as it would be a +EV play. Based on the stated RTP for the key bet, the odds of hitting the keybet are more like 1 in 42.4
lol then by definition it is not random... even though I understand what you're saying about "weighting" the slots. Random would assume equal fairness in each slot. Thus, while it might be random to the weighted slots, the wheel itself then at that point is NOT random.Quote: HeyMrDJ...It is random, but I am saying that the RNG is not applying an equal weight to the keybet slot
So if it's not random, I'll revert to my previous statement that we have no way of knowing the weight they put on what slot and no way to calculate the actual return/etc.
Quote: Romeslol then by definition it is not random... even though I understand what you're saying about "weighting" the slots. Random would assume equal fairness in each slot. Thus, while it might be random to the weighted slots, the wheel itself then at that point is NOT random.
So if it's not random, I'll revert to my previous statement that we have no way of knowing the weight they put on what slot and no way to calculate the actual return/etc.
Ah but we can, if we know the EV of the multiplier is 40.41666 and we know the return to player is 95.34% surely the maths is straight forward.
How do we know that's the RTP? Past that, we certainly can't figure out the hit frequency of the Key Bet unless we make the ASSUMPTION that all other numbers are weighted evenly above it. Who's to say I don't double weight 18 and 1/2 weight 16 and the math would still come out the same?Quote: HeyMrDJAh but we can, if we know the EV of the multiplier is 40.41666 and we know the return to player is 95.34% surely the maths is straight forward.
Quote: RomesHow do we know that's the RTP? Past that, we certainly can't figure out the hit frequency of the Key Bet unless we make the ASSUMPTION that all other numbers are weighted evenly above it. Who's to say I don't double weight 18 and 1/2 weight 16 and the math would still come out the same?
because in the game rules it states that the RTP for the keybet alone is 95.34%
Still to my point: How do we know they didn't weight the 0 extra, and shave the 16 a bit to make the math equal out at 95.34%? You'll never be able to figure the weights.Quote: HeyMrDJbecause in the game rules it states that the RTP for the keybet alone is 95.34%
Quote: RomesStill to my point: How do we know they didn't weight the 0 extra, and shave the 16 a bit to make the math equal out at 95.34%? You'll never be able to figure the weights.
That would be the way to go. Change the probabilities of the 12 multpliers to achieve the desired RTP. Changing the wheel probablilites would change the RTP on the base roulette game. In favor of the player, btw, unless they bet the 00 (= key bet slot).
Quote: RomesRandom would assume equal fairness in each slot.
What kind of gambler's fallacy is that? "I can either win the lottery, or not. Fifty - fifty." Outcomes can be random but not equally likely. Especially in the world of computer RNGs. (Even in the physical world, you could just add another copy of the ace of clubs to deck of cards - voila! Or increase the size of one slot of a physical roulette wheel - still random.) Fairness and randomness are entirely different concepts.
Quote: GWAEI think OP is confusing odds and EV. The odds of hitting the slot on a fair wheel is 1/38, however the EV is completely different since the multiplier is random, right? Not sure how the multiplier works, does it just pop up and that is random? If that is the case the key is 1/38 but the multiplier would be weighted. The 20x might hit 95% of the time and the 100x hit .10 % of the time. Just like most slots it would be near impossible to figure the EV since you don't know what the weights are. Game could still be +ev or it could be 75% return rate, not real sure how you would ever tell unless they tell you the odds of hitting each multiplier.
Beat me to it. I think this is exactly what's happening, with maybe a pyramid of values that are then chosen randomly.
Let's say, out of 10 choices, there are seeded
4 @20 x
3 @35x
2@50x
1 @ 100x
The mean return on hitting this would be about 38.5x rtp, assuming equal weight on those 10 options.
Hitting the key slot would have the 1 in 38 chance, but the subroutine would have the additional variance.
No way of knowing if this is their framework, but it's logical to think so. They could do many more than 10 options in whatever proportion they wanted, to adjust the rtp. In itself, it could be +ev (the 40.xx rtp the op mentioned), but diluted by the 1/38 chance of hitting it, the game would remain -ev.
Not a gamblers fallacy at all, in fact not even close to a similar idea? The topic in regard is the weighted slots on a roulette wheel where it's very common tongue to equate a "fair" wheel (in which each slot has the same likely hood of hitting) to a "random" wheel.Quote: Canyonero...What kind of gambler's fallacy is that?...
(i) The Key Bet is a straight up bet that if won will pay one of the eleven payouts listed. If it's like normal roulette you retain the original chip. So the total payout is 41.45... (not 40.45..). This makes the probability of winning 1/ (41.45.../.9534) = 1/43.4807 which by co-incidence is almost exactly 2.3%. (If you assume 2.3% and the average payout is 41.4545 you get 95.3454%.)
(ii) Other numbers have an equal chance of coming in. Thus their chance is (100-2.3%)/37 = 2.6405%.
(iii) Other numbers pay standard 35 to 1, so payback is 36*2.6405% = 95.06% (which is a tad better than double zero roulette).
Methinks this is consistent with a UK bookmaker machine (which is where I suspect it can be found - cf http://games.ladbrokes.com/en/games/table-games/KeyBetRoulette ).
If the key bet is FOR 1, then 2.357%, 2.639%, 95.00%.
