Which single bet has highest winning %
January 17th, 2016 at 1:33:38 PM
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Regardless of house edge or risk, which casino game offers the best % chance of winning on 1 single bet, dice roll, card hand, spin, etc.? For example, betting on 35 numbers for 1 European roulette spin gives you a 94.59% chance of winning (35/37). Is there any casino game that offers a single bet with a higher % chance of winning?
January 17th, 2016 at 3:54:10 PM
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The best EV? You can find Full Pay VP that's over 100%.Quote: wallethalffullRegardless of house edge or risk, which casino game offers the best % chance of winning on 1 single bet, dice roll, card hand, spin, etc.? For example, betting on 35 numbers for 1 European roulette spin gives you a 94.59% chance of winning (35/37). Is there any casino game that offers a single bet with a higher % chance of winning?
On table games you would have to search for good BJ rules.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
January 17th, 2016 at 4:47:21 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfThe best EV?
No - he wants the bet that has the best chance of winning, even if the EV is terrible. For example, what if there was a bet where you bet $1000, and won $1 99% of the time but lost the 1000 the other 1%? That would be a 99% "chance of winning" but the EV is -90.1%
Also, I am assuming that "winning" means "making money"; otherwise, covering all 37 numbers would be 100% "successful". Betting on both pass and don't pass in craps doesn't count either, as there's no way to "win;" the best you can do is break even.
January 17th, 2016 at 5:00:18 PM
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Lay the 4 or 10 in craps. A penny slot may have a higher chance of getting SOMETHING back from a spin, but since it doesn't result in a net profit, I don't think it counts.
Edit: Oh, I didn't actually read your question, no I'm pretty sure betting almost every number in roulette is the best for this.
Edit: Oh, I didn't actually read your question, no I'm pretty sure betting almost every number in roulette is the best for this.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
January 17th, 2016 at 5:12:43 PM
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pfffffffffft.
bet *every* number in roulette. You win every time and you get short-paid every time
bet *every* number in roulette. You win every time and you get short-paid every time
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell! She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 17th, 2016 at 5:20:49 PM
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Tease the hell of a favorite at the sportsbook
Pats +15 vs browns
Pats +15 vs browns
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
January 21st, 2016 at 4:43:29 PM
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Correct. Even if EV is terrible. You aren't playing over the long term you are just playing one iteration of the game, be it a spin, a roll, a hand, etc. And also correct, that I am asking for the best chance of a profitable win. Betting all 37 numbers in roulette would not count. Thanks for the replies.
January 21st, 2016 at 4:57:15 PM
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Quote: wallethalffullRegardless of house edge or risk, which casino game offers the best % chance of winning on 1 single bet, dice roll, card hand, spin, etc.?
Baccarat.
The probability of Banker winning a hand is 50.7%.
January 21st, 2016 at 5:05:25 PM
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Quote: wallethalffullFor example, betting on 35 numbers for 1 European roulette spin gives you a 94.59% chance of winning (35/37). Is there any casino game that offers a single bet with a higher % chance of winning?
Spurs money line has a better than 95% chance tonight*. Saturday there will be a few college games with even higher chances of winning
(*Suns +16.5 is the better bet, however)
January 21st, 2016 at 7:05:26 PM
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In reality if that is the case bet every number in roulette except 27-28-29 and you will have a 90plus percent chance of winning 1 chip if you place 1 chip on every number but those
No longer hiring, dont ask because I wont hire you either
January 21st, 2016 at 7:14:08 PM
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In that case, an even money bet with the lowest house edge.Quote: wallethalffullI am asking for the best chance of a profitable win.
Unless I'm mistaken, that would be a Don't Pass craps bet.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
January 21st, 2016 at 7:31:49 PM
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If you want the best chance of a profitable win then hands downs it's betting all but three numbers on a double zero roulette wheel you will have above a 90 percent win probability of winning 1 unit
No longer hiring, dont ask because I wont hire you either
January 22nd, 2016 at 7:22:30 AM
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This is so stupid, it boggles my mind.Quote: WizardofnothingIf you want the best chance of a profitable win then hands downs it's betting all but three numbers on a double zero roulette wheel you will have above a 90 percent win probability of winning 1 unit
If you really believe that, why not make those same 35 bets on a single zero game?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
January 22nd, 2016 at 7:45:59 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearIn that case, an even money bet with the lowest house edge.
Unless I'm mistaken, that would be a Don't Pass craps bet.
The Don't bet has a HE of 1.38%, with a win rate of 49.3% when you ignore the tie on the 12.
The Player bet in baccarat is an even money bet that wins at the same 49.3% rate, and it has a lower HE of 1.24%.
Player is the better bet of the two.
The Banker bet has a HE of 1.06% and it wins 50.7% of the time.
Even with the 5% vig, it is still the better bet.
You could also play E-Z Bac and lower the HE on the Banker bet to 1.04% while eliminating the vig altogether.
January 22nd, 2016 at 8:13:43 AM
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I was going on the assumption that there is. Zero roulette where he is - not sure what else is stupid about that
No longer hiring, dont ask because I wont hire you either
January 22nd, 2016 at 8:37:11 AM
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Who really cares, but the roulette answers are not "one single bet", but a combination of 35 single bets. If you really mean to ask about one single bet then it is clearly betting a favorite money line at a sportsbook. Wait for the next Warriors - Lakers game.....
I almost forgot about the NTGL game. You can bet $100 to try and win $1 and have a greater than 98% chance of success.
I almost forgot about the NTGL game. You can bet $100 to try and win $1 and have a greater than 98% chance of success.
January 22nd, 2016 at 9:50:40 AM
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My humble opinion on the proposed question:
I did not count the abilty to make multiple bets but only one lay.
1-Buying a 4 or 10 can get you a ZERO house advantage bet.
2-Since Baccarat can be a single bet, the house has made the banker bet, the best "single bet" in the house, at 1.06 to 1 odds. x99.4%x correct to 50.7% win rate.
3-And finally I think the Most practical single bet is the don't pass line bet at 1.36 to 1 odds at the craps table. If you get out there on the don't you can get odds on this bet at ZERO house advantage.
4-If you are notoriously positive, the pass line can gain you a 1.41 to 1 "dis"advantage, and the Odds bets on that are again at ZERO house.
I did not count the abilty to make multiple bets but only one lay.
1-Buying a 4 or 10 can get you a ZERO house advantage bet.
2-Since Baccarat can be a single bet, the house has made the banker bet, the best "single bet" in the house, at 1.06 to 1 odds. x99.4%x correct to 50.7% win rate.
3-And finally I think the Most practical single bet is the don't pass line bet at 1.36 to 1 odds at the craps table. If you get out there on the don't you can get odds on this bet at ZERO house advantage.
4-If you are notoriously positive, the pass line can gain you a 1.41 to 1 "dis"advantage, and the Odds bets on that are again at ZERO house.
Last edited by: rushdl on Jan 22, 2016
January 22nd, 2016 at 10:46:20 AM
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I think - ultimately - for all bets - you either win or lose. (and in some games you push)
With that - if I desperately needed $100 bucks and was forced to place one single bet on one game, I'd bet on 19-36 on the roulette wheel if it were cold/cool outside, or 1-18 if it were warm/hot.
But that's just me being silly.
With that - if I desperately needed $100 bucks and was forced to place one single bet on one game, I'd bet on 19-36 on the roulette wheel if it were cold/cool outside, or 1-18 if it were warm/hot.
But that's just me being silly.
"Those who have no idea what they are doing, genuinely have no idea that they don't know what they are doing." - John Cleese
January 22nd, 2016 at 11:44:12 AM
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Quote: rushdl1-Buying a 4 or 10 can get you a ZERO house advantage bet.
The HE for a Buy on the 4 or 10 is 4.762%. Not zero.
Quote:2-Since Baccarat can be a single bet, the house has made the banker bet, the best "single bet" in the house, at 1.06 to 1 odds. 99.4% win rate.
Where did you get that 99.4% win rate?
January 22nd, 2016 at 12:05:29 PM
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Quote: TankoThe Player bet in baccarat is an even money bet that wins at the same 49.3% rate, and it has a lower HE of 1.24%.
Player is the better bet of the two.
The Banker bet has a HE of 1.06% and it wins 50.7% of the time.
These win percentages are not correct.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 22nd, 2016 at 12:12:59 PM
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I think either the question is I'll phrased or we are reading too much into it. Therefore the single best bet is not making a bet to begin with. Nothing wagered, nothing lost, and nothing gained except interest.
January 22nd, 2016 at 12:48:55 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesThese win percentages are not correct.
If these are not correct, then what win percentages did you have?
They are correct.
I was not counting ties.
Wizard of Odds
January 22nd, 2016 at 12:51:19 PM
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Quote: TankoIf these are not correct, then what win percentages did you have?
They are correct.
I was not counting ties.
Wizard of Odds
You cannot discount ties.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 22nd, 2016 at 1:45:15 PM
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1-In Arizona santa ana star casino had it, Free Buy. I agree that 4.76 is what you get with the 5% fee.
2- wizardofodds (and my typo) "The probability of a banker win, given that there wasn't a tie, is 0.506788499 and the probability of a player win is 0.493211501" (answer is 50.67% vs 49.32%)
2- wizardofodds (and my typo) "The probability of a banker win, given that there wasn't a tie, is 0.506788499 and the probability of a player win is 0.493211501" (answer is 50.67% vs 49.32%)
January 22nd, 2016 at 2:29:04 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesYou cannot discount ties.
Explain
January 22nd, 2016 at 3:01:27 PM
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Pet peeve.Quote: rushdl2- wizardofodds (and my typo) "The probability of a banker win, given that there wasn't a tie, is 0.506788499 and the probability of a player win is 0.493211501" (answer is 50.67% vs 49.32%)
Nobody ignores pushes in blackjack when they report the house edge or the probability of winning a hand. Nobody ignores getting a Pair of Jacks, Queens, Kings or Aces in Jacks or Better VP when reporting the house edge (these result in a Push). Just like blackjack or VP, a "push" (Tie) is one of the outcomes that can occur in baccarat. My complaint is not with Mike; it is with those who use these probabilities and edges as if Ties don't count.
Banker wins with probability 0.458597, end of story.
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January 22nd, 2016 at 3:17:50 PM
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Quote: TankoExplain
What he said ^^^^^
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 23rd, 2016 at 6:03:29 AM
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Quote: teliotMy complaint is not with Mike; it is with those who use these probabilities and edges as if Ties don't count.
Banker wins with probability 0.458597, end of story.
It is equally true that Banker cannot lose to a Tie and Banker wins 50.7% of all hands not ending in a Tie.
The original question was which game offers the best chance of winning on a single bet.
Both statements are true, but the second is more relevant to the question.
Tie probability and not 'Ties' counts as a factor in determining HE.
Most people ignore Ties and let a bet stand until it is resolved.
The 9.5% probability of a Tie outcome does not change the fact that Banker will win 50.7% of the hands not ending in a Tie.
January 23rd, 2016 at 7:03:54 AM
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Yes, and the Banker will win 100% of the hands not ending in a Tie or Player.Quote: TankoThe 9.5% probability of a Tie outcome does not change the fact that Banker will win 50.7% of the hands not ending in a Tie.
Unlike craps where points must be resolved, the fact that the bets can be taken down makes a difference. Including other events through conditional probabilities is just semantics that has no bearing on reality.
For the OP's question, it does appear that the correct answer is to bet equal amounts on 35 numbers on roulette.
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