Please help blackjack questions

Hi guys
I'm a regular blackjack player at my local casino in New Zealand and Australia.
I use hi low count and play at $50table (other lower limit tables are all using cam) the rules are 8decks shoe(shuffled with the machine then put in the card tray) , no surrender dealer stand on all 17 no soft double if the player have under 12 the player must hit or double, dealer blackjack takes original bets only, no resplit aces can split upto 3 hands, blackjack 3:2 insurance 2:1. Double after split is allowed. Mid shoe entry is allowed
The cut card is usually placed at about 2 decks, the penatration is about 75% some dealer may give about 80 to 83%.

I've noticed a senior card counter in here he told me this game can only be beaten if I have a large amount of bank (250,000 to 300,000). He also mentioned a betting spread of 1 to 18 need to apply to win.
I don't have that much funds and already down $50000 pretty much half of my bankroll and saving.
I learnt high low count from the Internet and been practicing for almost 200 to 270 hours
I just would like to know is it true that for me to beat this game under these rules is very rare? Or I still have some odds in my favor if I still using high low and true count convention? Do I need to learn some higher level counting method or is there some other techniques that I need to apply when I using high low count?

Rules are not great, No soft doubles sucks, no surrender sucks, 8 decks sucks, but dealer stands ALL 17's, offsets some of that. I guess that puts the house edge somewhere around .55%, which is pretty average. I play many games with a house edge in that range. 75% pen is also very mediocre. 83% is better.

My first question is are you sure the dealer is standing on all 17's, including soft 17's, because without that, the game becomes a lot worse, in the neighborhood of .75% house edge which is a lot harder to overcome. Assuming dealer does indeed stand on ALL 17's, you should be able to beat this game with a 1-12 spread or more, maybe even a little less if you are not playing at least some of the negative counts (the worst of them).

I have questions about the $50,000 you are currently 'down'. Is that real money in real play or are you referring to some sort of computer or practice play? If it is real money, can you tell us what your bet spread and ramp (what amounts you are betting at what counts), so as to be sure you are playing a profitable betting strategy.

Also, since I am not familiar with New Zealand and Australia Blackjack, are these casinos regulated by some sort of legitimate government agency? (just so we can rule out cheating)

Thanks for your reply.
Deal stand on soft 17.
The $50000 I lost was real hard cash from my saving.
Is skycity Auckland they are the only casino in Auckland, I heard they also operate in Italy and some other country.

I been to the Vip room once before invited by a Vip card friend, in there they have 6 decks cut card placed at about 1 to 1.5 decks the rules are exactly the same.


I'm so how lost faith in counting cards, maybe because I learnt from the Internet I don't know maybe is some parts been missing. Been taking so much pressure and stress, most people I knew they don't believe in counting especially hi low method.

I wish we could have a lower limit bj table for new card counter like me to start growing.

Thank you all again for replying and any suggestions will be highly appreciate

The betting spread I use is the 1 to 8 due to the high table limit $50 -$100 tables

With a $50,000 loss, something seems very wrong to me. Over what period of time or amount of play did this loss occur?

I generally don't like to jump to the conclusion of the possibility of cheating, but I think it is something we need to rule out. Being that I am not familiar with New Zealand/Australia, can anyone else on the site, tell me if the games are regulated fairly in these jurisdiction or if there is any history of cheating?

Next, I want to examine your bet spread and ramp closer. Need to know more than just that you are spreading 1-8. Need to know what true counts you are placing what bets. I am concerned about the possibility of too slow a ramp, meaning not getting your bigger bets out until a very high true count, which occur too infrequently to help much.

Anyone else have any suggestions as to what could be wrong, because something doesn't seem right to me about this $50,000 loss scenario?

Oh and answers to your questions. Hi lo works just fine. You don't need anything 'stronger' to win. I am in my 12th year of supporting myself solely from blackjack play and I play hi-lo. I also play limits not that different than yourself. I do play $25 minimum tables, but my top wager is $400 or $600, depending on store, and I have never experienced a $50,000 down swing in my 12 year career, which is why something doesn't seem right about your scenario to me.

Quote: Jamesyu9211

I learnt high low count from the Internet and been practicing for almost 200 to 270 hours

Who checked you out?

Quote: kewlj

Anyone else have any suggestions as to what could be wrong, because something doesn't seem right to me about this $50,000 loss scenario?

Unit size as a proportion of bankroll too high?

When I first started I use $50 as a unit I increase a unit when true count goes up. Then I noticed when the shoe finally reach up to TC 3 I usually couldn't chase back the bets I lost from the beginning.( the shoe usually either ends at TC 2-3)
From last 3 weeks i start to be more agressvie( maybe was a bad move due to I'm already down $18000) I start to increase my bet when the counts in my favor 2-3 unit per TC until it reach my limit about 8 units plus the $50 starting point.

Over 1.5months playing time. I usually play about 7-8 hours.

Nobody checked me out maybe I'm just too dumb too young too simple thought I was ready.

Now I just bring under $1000 per night to back count around and hope there is someone who play at the tables and wait for a good count then jump in.

After thinking about this for the past few days I think another big key factor I lost is because sometimes i wasn't clam I should leave the table if the TC goes to -2 maybe it could help me saved a lots more money. Usually I leave at TC -3

Quote: Jamesyu9211

Nobody checked me out maybe I'm just too dumb too young too simple thought I was ready.

What are you doing when TC<2? Wonging out would make a fair difference then (bathroom break, phone call break, whatever)

You do realise that you have hardly any edge when TC=2? are you ramping too soon and in a linear way from tc=2 because I bet you rarely see tc>4?

1/2 kelly is your friend, constantly adjusting with your bankroll.


Now.... be honest to yourself..... do you have too much in play when you are at a disadvantage, because of lack of self control? Join the club :)

Read and re-read Romes a-z post on this forum.

Quote: Jamesyu9211

Now I just bring under $1000 per night to back count . . .
After thinking about this for the past few days I think another big key factor I lost is because sometimes i wasn't clam I should leave the table if the TC goes to -2 maybe it could help me saved a lots more money. Usually I leave at TC -3

Don't ever run down your session money to the point where you cannot afford the doubles and splits that life will throw at you!.

I don't know what 'clam' means, but wong out for sure as much as you can get away with, certainly at tc<-2

Side count the 8's and 9's to improve the Hi Lo Count. More 8/9's left improves double downs on 10/11 and the dealer will bust more often.

Romes has recently done 3 articles about this subject :

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Quote: Jamesyu9211

Over 1.5months playing time. I usually play about 7-8 hours.
Nobody checked me out maybe I'm just too dumb too young too simple thought I was ready.

You are a brave man to start from the beginning with a $50-$400 spread on a $100k Bankroll and lose 1/2 of it.

To be successfull in this busines of counting youy need to:
- Find good games
- Be technically good: BS, Counting, Indeces etc
- Have the bankroll
- Keep your cool as you say. (ie lose 5 max bets in a row and have the guts to put the max bet out again if the countg says so)
- Longevity strategy depending on Casino approach with counters.

I do not think that the small amount of time you practised and played gets you anywhere near to acquire all these skills.
For example: Not only know BS, but know it inside out and be able to retrieve it from memory in a split second under casino conditions and with only very rare mistakes.
It is unfortuntate that your only option is a $50 tables. Ideally you should built your skills with smaller Min bet tables.
Keeping your cool is also something that comes with a lot of actual play and depends a lot on someone's character and personality. It takes time to become confident on your skills and be able to put the big money when you are losing.

I suggest that you practise a lot more on software that shows you whethere you are playing correctly.

Quote: kewlj

...Anyone else have any suggestions as to what could be wrong, because something doesn't seem right to me about this $50,000 loss scenario?

Sorry I'm late to the party, as usual after a weekend =p. This concerns me a bit as well. There's a bad run, but a $50k bad run is indicative that either on your side, or the casino side, something is not right.

How are the counts in your experience? Do they ALWAYS seem to go up and up? Do you have shoes with all negative counts, etc? One way to spot some potential mischief is if every show is a positive shoe (then perhaps some of the 'big cards' are missing). This is something that in the short term of 1 night is pretty insignificant, but if you've put a lot of time in and 90% of the time it's a positive count, then something is up.

If you're capable of predicting your EV for that game (given your spread, etc... which is all covered in the 3 articles Zuga so kindly posted) then you should know what your EV is for the number of hands you've played total thus far. In my opinion, if you can't do this, you SHOULD NOT be playing for any amount of money, let alone the amount/levels you're playing at. I hope you don't find that rude; it's more for your protection from yourself than anything. From your EV you can calculate your Standard Deviations and tell exactly where you are. If your top bet is only $400, you must either be playing too much too soon (you should really be upping your bet at TC +2, not TC +1) or playing too often (I recommend in my thread/articles you should be wonging out at TC -1). This is also for the non-professional. As a professional you might have to play through some negative counts (on short handed tables), but if at your casino you have 10-12 blackjack tables, I don't see why you couldn't use the 1 in a million excuses to either sit out or switch tables. In the articles I cover how sitting out after TC -1 actually MAKES you money by not taking away form your total gain.

Are you playing with Indexes, Cover, etc, etc?

Lastly, it sounds like you only have 1 casino to play at, and you're playing 7-8 hours per day? This is going to absolutely get you noticed, especially if you're just in a 'bad run' and you do finally come back through and start killing them at the tables. How often do you take trips to other casinos? KewlJ might have to give his professional opinion, but I'd be rather positive you can NOT make a professional living playing at only 1 casino 7-8 hours a day, week in and week out. Even if you get away with it for 6 months (somehow at that level) you're going to get the boot and then it's all over. If you're trying to be a professional you need some longevity (shorter sessions, more places to play, etc, etc... again all in the articles).

From the way I see it all of your answers can be gathered in short order, with a few events:
1) Find out whom regulates your casino, and ensure they're a credible source.
2) Read the 3 A-Z Articles posted previously by Zuga. Then re-read them.
3) Find someone who's already proven competent in counting to check your game. This is pretty easy if you have anyone in the area to just deal you several pre-set shoes and see how you play.

After you understand how to calculate the EV for your game/spread/etc, you should be able to find out what your EV is, your Standard Deviations, etc. Those are the truth in all of the matter. They will tell you how you're playing, or if you're getting cheated, etc.

Quote: Zuga

Romes has recently done 3 articles about this subject :

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

I did a quick EV mock up given KewlJ's .55% HE estimation and what I would do with your spread as follows.

Again, if you don't have a sheet like this, can't create it, or didn't know these numbers already, you really aren't ready to even be playing. I did this in 5 minutes:


I discuss how to make this sheet, change it, what all of the number means, etc, in my articles.

Do you see under Gain ($ per hand) on the top right of the chart how everytime you place a $50 bet at TC -1 you can expect to lose $7.15? So what does that tell you? That means if you NEVER played TC -1, then you could add another $7.15 to your Total Gain and make around $44/hour (given you're getting 100 hands per hour) on average. If you're playing down to TC -3, then you're giving up A TON of your EV. Check out this version where you play down to TC -3 and note the differences:


The numbers are definitely accurate but not 100% accurate for the Frequencies on TC -2 and TC -3... more so because I never play them because no one should =P.

If you're playing down to TC -3 then you're costing yourself an extra ~$10/hour off of your EV. That's something near 25%!!!

The GainPerHand is what's most important (and if you're trying, use the first image... I didn't update the 2nd image's bottom left calcualtions). From there you should be keeping records of how many hands you play (estimated average) every session you play. You can then multiply this GainPerHand times the number of hands you've played for any given session, week, or your whole career (with this spread). Then you can see what your EV was on any one particular night, weekend, or your overall EV. On the "rough talk" of what this means, is you should be making about $27/hour if you're getting around 100 hands per hour, as opposed to $37/hour just by simply refusing to play for one reason or another at anything less than TC -1.

This is why knowing your numbers is important, and 100% crucial for anyone taking the game seriously. It's the difference between thinking you have a winning game, and knowing you have a winning game... Which is all the difference.

Lastly, you should edit out the name of the casino... as you've (in this thread alone) given them 90% of the information they need to identify you.

Quote: Romes

Do you see under Gain ($ per hand) on the top right of the chart how everytime you place a $50 bet at TC -1 you can expect to lose $7.15?

Hi Romes,

I've always had a few problems with your worksheets, especially column e where values seem to feel too large, Though I do bow to your superior knowledge. I guess it's something to do with relative frequency, but I don't get it yet.
How do you arrive at the huge $7.15?
If the advantage is -1.1% doesn't that mean that you will, on average, lose 1.1% of $50.00 on those hands, which I make to be 55c per hand played.
Similarly at tc=0 with house advantage of 0.6% doesn't that mean you will, on average, lose 0.6% of $50.00 which is 30c?

Quote: Jamesyu9211

Nobody checked me out maybe I'm just too dumb too young too simple thought I was ready.

Maybe you should get checked out.

If you can't find a qualified person, you need to check yourself. A shoe, a discard rack, and 8 decks of cards shouldn't cost more than $150, even at the ridiculous prices you may need to pay (hooray for VAT). Chips are optional.

You may have something around you can use as a video camera, to record you play through 10 shoes (record the cards in play and the discard tray).

You'll need to enlist someone to deal, and possibly someone to stop you periodically to ask what the count is (could be your dealer friend). Whoever is asking should take notes of RC, TC, and probably what bet you would be putting out.

Have the TV on and in view, and the stereo on. Both at reasonable volumes (not blaringly loud, but not too quiet - normal volumes for both). (Ignoring distractions is part of the test.)

You can go through the video after the fact and record each and every seen card, pausing if necessary, and comparing your live counts to the actual counts - like you're the eye, doing a skills check without software.

Quote: OnceDear

Hi Romes,

I've always had a few problems with your worksheets, especially column e where values seem to feel too large, Though I do bow to your superior knowledge. I guess it's something to do with relative frequency, but I don't get it yet.
How do you arrive at the huge $7.15?
If the advantage is -1.1% doesn't that mean that you will, on average, lose 1.1% of $50.00 on those hands, which I make to be 55c per hand played.
Similarly at tc=0 with house advantage of 0.6% doesn't that mean you will, on average, lose 0.6% of $50.00 which is 30c?

I didn't see this until now. It is in fact weighted based on the frequency of the hands. I'm not finding the "EV" of the hand, I'm finding the "Gain Per Hand" of these scenarios, which must be weighted with how frequently the hand occurs.

In my A-Z thread (not articles) it was requested for me to post a couple spreadsheets, so I posted 3 of them on Google Docs. Feel free to check those links out, download the documents, and play with them yourself. That way you can click on a cell and see the calculation that goes in to making that cell.