Questions for the wizzard
July 14th, 2015 at 2:56:21 PM
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Dear wizzard, I stumbled upon your website and have enjoyed reading it this evening. My initial interest was to read about the martingale system - I knew it didn't work, but I wanted to fully understand why. I now have a few question that popped in to my head whilst reading your site.
1. I read that you yourself gamble and you said you were in profit this year from gambling. Can I ask, as someone who talks strongly of the house edge and the sure inevitability of losing money in the long run gambling, first of all why do you gamble? I just wonder why someone who talks very sensibly about how gambling is set up to make you loose would gamble? and secondly how do you account for your own gambling being profitable - I mean do you just put it down to good luck against the odds?
2. I gambled myself for the first time online this week. I quickly lost £20 on roulette and blackjack betting mostly from 5 to 20p... in fact I was surprised how unlucky I was! I started by playing the demo games and often went up on money to a point where in real life i would have stopped playing, in fact on your practice blackjack game i doubled the starting money. However as soon as I played with real money on another site I seemed to become hugely unlucky! I became suspicious that the website I was using was rigging the demo game to let me win, and rigging the real game to make me lose. In fact I wrote to them suggesting this and they quickly replied assuring me that wasn't true. I've begun to think that maybe the games aren't rigged as it's a reputable site in the UK, but instead that I actually played differently with the fake money than my own money and that this made the difference. I mean of course it's possible that I was just lucky in the demo and unlucky with real money, but i just wondered if you (or anyone else) had any thoughts about this. Is there something about playing with real money that means a beginner like me will be more likely to mess up? When I played with fake money was there some lack of fear that allowed me to get in to a profitable position?! What i genuinely found was that when I 'went big' on the fake game I would often win, but with my money if I played a (whopping) 50p hand I would usually lose. Just bad luck I guess.
3. What makes a good gambler? It seems that with a game like blackjack where you are playing against a very small house edge there will be millions of players who end up down, but also slightly less but still millions who end up in profit. Is the good gambler the one who ends up by chance in profit many times and that there is an equally unlucky gambler somewhere in the world who almost always looses?! Sorry if this is a dumb question I'm just trying to get my head round why some people do make profits gambling, I guess the answer is just that they're lucky right!!
James
1. I read that you yourself gamble and you said you were in profit this year from gambling. Can I ask, as someone who talks strongly of the house edge and the sure inevitability of losing money in the long run gambling, first of all why do you gamble? I just wonder why someone who talks very sensibly about how gambling is set up to make you loose would gamble? and secondly how do you account for your own gambling being profitable - I mean do you just put it down to good luck against the odds?
2. I gambled myself for the first time online this week. I quickly lost £20 on roulette and blackjack betting mostly from 5 to 20p... in fact I was surprised how unlucky I was! I started by playing the demo games and often went up on money to a point where in real life i would have stopped playing, in fact on your practice blackjack game i doubled the starting money. However as soon as I played with real money on another site I seemed to become hugely unlucky! I became suspicious that the website I was using was rigging the demo game to let me win, and rigging the real game to make me lose. In fact I wrote to them suggesting this and they quickly replied assuring me that wasn't true. I've begun to think that maybe the games aren't rigged as it's a reputable site in the UK, but instead that I actually played differently with the fake money than my own money and that this made the difference. I mean of course it's possible that I was just lucky in the demo and unlucky with real money, but i just wondered if you (or anyone else) had any thoughts about this. Is there something about playing with real money that means a beginner like me will be more likely to mess up? When I played with fake money was there some lack of fear that allowed me to get in to a profitable position?! What i genuinely found was that when I 'went big' on the fake game I would often win, but with my money if I played a (whopping) 50p hand I would usually lose. Just bad luck I guess.
3. What makes a good gambler? It seems that with a game like blackjack where you are playing against a very small house edge there will be millions of players who end up down, but also slightly less but still millions who end up in profit. Is the good gambler the one who ends up by chance in profit many times and that there is an equally unlucky gambler somewhere in the world who almost always looses?! Sorry if this is a dumb question I'm just trying to get my head round why some people do make profits gambling, I guess the answer is just that they're lucky right!!
James
July 14th, 2015 at 4:29:18 PM
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You thought the practice games online might be tilted your way, and that the real games might be tilted against you?
If you ran the site, how would you set up the games?
I know how I would set up the games, isn't pretty.
If you ran the site, how would you set up the games?
I know how I would set up the games, isn't pretty.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
July 14th, 2015 at 4:36:56 PM
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Gamblers spend money on gambling because they seek the action. That simple.
Knowing the house edge is not a factor if the house edge is reasonable and the player has a chance to win. If you look at it in terms of expenditure, then just about every other enjoyable activity has a negative 100% EV - when gambling does not. Therefore, all you should do is....gamble.
Knowing the house edge is not a factor if the house edge is reasonable and the player has a chance to win. If you look at it in terms of expenditure, then just about every other enjoyable activity has a negative 100% EV - when gambling does not. Therefore, all you should do is....gamble.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
July 14th, 2015 at 4:44:40 PM
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I can't speak for any online casino software, but as the programmer of the demo games on this site (here) and WizardOfOdds.com (here), I can assure you that these operate randomly, and are not rigged to make the player win more. The games were written in Javascript, which means you can examine the source code yourself if you have any suspicions about their fairness.
July 14th, 2015 at 7:03:16 PM
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Quote: JBI can't speak for any online casino software, but as the programmer of the demo games on this site (here) and WizardOfOdds.com (here), I can assure you that these operate randomly, and are not rigged to make the player win more. The games were written in Javascript, which means you can examine the source code yourself if you have any suspicions about their fairness.
I was NOT talking about any site in particular. I was definately NOT speaking about the practice sites offered by the Wizard. I love those, I play on those.
I do NOT play online for real money, I know several people that do, I know one person who wins online and collects winnings without problems.
When I gamble I want to see the cards, watch the dealer, etc.
I am NOT a trusting soul. Just me. I hope that is OK with everyone.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
July 14th, 2015 at 7:19:17 PM
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Quote: TwoFeathersATLI was NOT talking about any site in particular. I was definately NOT speaking about the practice sites offered by the Wizard. I love those, I play on those.
I do NOT play online for real money, I know several people that do, I know one person who wins online and collects winnings without problems.
When I gamble I want to see the cards, watch the dealer, etc.
I am NOT a trusting soul. Just me. I hope that is OK with everyone.
My reply was intended for the original poster. Sorry for any misunderstanding.
July 15th, 2015 at 1:55:09 AM
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Quote: PaigowdanIf you look at it in terms of expenditure, then just about every other enjoyable activity has a negative 100% EV - when gambling does not. Therefore, all you should do is....gamble.
Somebody should use this for their signature line!
I'm sure there is a flaw in the logic somewhere, but I like it!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 15th, 2015 at 2:47:44 AM
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Yes I never doubted that those games act randomly and they prove as great practice for me to get a feel of how I might do in the online casinos. What interested me though is that I genuinely achieved different success playing demos to playing with my real money. I haven't played that much so it clearly could just be down to changes in luck. However I'm interested, from a beginners perspective, in the possibility that it was a bit more than this. I read a really interesting post from another user, I'm afraid I can't remember the name now or exactly what they said but it was along the lines of 'You are walking between two lines and you start near the line on the right but there is a gentle wind blowing you left (the house edge). If you take small steps you will follow probability more accurately across to the line on the left (end of bankroll) But if you take bigger steps you increase you sway from side to side and you will increase your variance from the line of probability, and increase the likely hood of hitting the line on the right at some point (your target profit).
To me this analogy might explain the differences in my game play. When I played with real money I was super cautious and took small steps, I also had not even defined a line on the right, I mean I was playing with £20 and betting mostly 5p - 20p and I had no target like wanting to make £5 or something. I also often fell in to martingale patterns as it was tempting to try and win back bets I lost on and I would get frustrated thinking 'How can I lose 10 times in a row, this is rigged!' I now understand this is a very real outcome.
When I played the demo however my play changed and I took bigger steps... I obviously had a bigger fake starting balance, so I was more confident with my bets, I bet bigger, I also bet more sporadically - every now and then throwing in a bigger bet when it felt right and when I felt confident rather than when I was loosing, and most times I managed to get the account to increase in value to a point where I thought I'd walk away if it was real.
So as a beginner this is quite interesting to me and I'm beginning to think about it all more in terms of defining a line on the right (a realistic profit to aim for) and defining my step size to increase the likelihood that I will hit the line on the right, clearly these two things will be defined by my bankroll. But in terms of percentages of bankroll is there a way to calculate optimums for these values? So for a bank roll of $x what is the optimum step size (s% of $x) and best profit to aim for (p% of $x). Sorry if this is really basic stuff, I'm just learning and want to improve my chances!
I also think there is a lot to be said for having the confidence every now and then to put in a bigger bet so I wouldn't stick rigidly to the step size but would use it more as a guide.
James
To me this analogy might explain the differences in my game play. When I played with real money I was super cautious and took small steps, I also had not even defined a line on the right, I mean I was playing with £20 and betting mostly 5p - 20p and I had no target like wanting to make £5 or something. I also often fell in to martingale patterns as it was tempting to try and win back bets I lost on and I would get frustrated thinking 'How can I lose 10 times in a row, this is rigged!' I now understand this is a very real outcome.
When I played the demo however my play changed and I took bigger steps... I obviously had a bigger fake starting balance, so I was more confident with my bets, I bet bigger, I also bet more sporadically - every now and then throwing in a bigger bet when it felt right and when I felt confident rather than when I was loosing, and most times I managed to get the account to increase in value to a point where I thought I'd walk away if it was real.
So as a beginner this is quite interesting to me and I'm beginning to think about it all more in terms of defining a line on the right (a realistic profit to aim for) and defining my step size to increase the likelihood that I will hit the line on the right, clearly these two things will be defined by my bankroll. But in terms of percentages of bankroll is there a way to calculate optimums for these values? So for a bank roll of $x what is the optimum step size (s% of $x) and best profit to aim for (p% of $x). Sorry if this is really basic stuff, I'm just learning and want to improve my chances!
I also think there is a lot to be said for having the confidence every now and then to put in a bigger bet so I wouldn't stick rigidly to the step size but would use it more as a guide.
James
July 15th, 2015 at 4:37:21 AM
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TLDR thread.
As for #1, this is my opinion/guess:
Although I believe Wizard does not claim to be an AP, he will occasionally play with an advantage. And I think most of the time when he does play, he plays games where the house edge is either very small, or will play games that are break even.
A simple example of such a play would be to play a BJ game with a 0.5% HE, $10 bets, and play for 2 hours. Over the course of the 2 hours of play, one would expect a loss of 0.005 * 200 * 10 = $10. That amount of play would likely get you $20-50 in FP. Typically the freeplay would come in the mail (since you use your players card). After you redeem your free-play the following month, you profit $10 to $40.
Most people would say this isn't worth it and not a good way to make money....and I agree. However, if your goal is to play recreationally but limit your expected loss, or playing a slightly positive (+EV) game....this would be the way to do it.
There are limitless ways to gain an advantage in a casino -- several people here do that for a living (professional gamblers) and others do it as a hobby or a side-job (ie: myself). You can count cards at blackjack. You can play big on VP and get free-play in the mail -- where the freeplay amount exceeds the expected loss on your VP play. You can hunt down promotions, like 2x points days and play optimal machines....or find progressives that are really high.....or do a number of other things.
Every game and every machine in a casino (as far as I know) can be played and the player can gain an advantage on it. But you gotta know what you're doing. You can't just sit down at a random game and expect to win. You gotta turn the odds in your favor, somehow, to have a chance at being a long-term winner. And the first way of doing that is by studying and learning the ins and outs of the games and by learning proper strategy for such games.
As for #1, this is my opinion/guess:
Although I believe Wizard does not claim to be an AP, he will occasionally play with an advantage. And I think most of the time when he does play, he plays games where the house edge is either very small, or will play games that are break even.
A simple example of such a play would be to play a BJ game with a 0.5% HE, $10 bets, and play for 2 hours. Over the course of the 2 hours of play, one would expect a loss of 0.005 * 200 * 10 = $10. That amount of play would likely get you $20-50 in FP. Typically the freeplay would come in the mail (since you use your players card). After you redeem your free-play the following month, you profit $10 to $40.
Most people would say this isn't worth it and not a good way to make money....and I agree. However, if your goal is to play recreationally but limit your expected loss, or playing a slightly positive (+EV) game....this would be the way to do it.
There are limitless ways to gain an advantage in a casino -- several people here do that for a living (professional gamblers) and others do it as a hobby or a side-job (ie: myself). You can count cards at blackjack. You can play big on VP and get free-play in the mail -- where the freeplay amount exceeds the expected loss on your VP play. You can hunt down promotions, like 2x points days and play optimal machines....or find progressives that are really high.....or do a number of other things.
Every game and every machine in a casino (as far as I know) can be played and the player can gain an advantage on it. But you gotta know what you're doing. You can't just sit down at a random game and expect to win. You gotta turn the odds in your favor, somehow, to have a chance at being a long-term winner. And the first way of doing that is by studying and learning the ins and outs of the games and by learning proper strategy for such games.
July 15th, 2015 at 8:44:14 AM
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Quote: RS...Although I believe Wizard does not claim to be an AP, he will occasionally play with an advantage. And I think most of the time when he does play, he plays games where the house edge is either very small, or will play games that are break even...
I think some other knuckleheads from other forums need to read this. As well known as he is in Vegas, he can't just walk into a casino and AP them with huge edges like some of us can and do it for long periods of time.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
