Dream Card- How ofter does it occur is Ugly Deuces, 58% or 59% of the time?
July 10th, 2015 at 5:50:04 PM
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In the Wizard's chart on how ofter the Dream card appears for Ugly Deuces it shows 59%. On the Dream Card machine instructions I play for Ugly Deuces it states: "The Dream Card feature is activated an average of 58% when enabled". Although this is only a minor discrepancy, is the Wizard's chart wrong? If so, what is the new game return percentage when the Dream Card is activated 58% of the time instead of 59%. I took a picture of the Dream Card instructions to verify the fact that the feature is activated only 58% of the time when enabled.
July 10th, 2015 at 7:57:45 PM
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I played some DDB Dream Card in Vegas. Four times I was dealt trips in the first four cards (8's, 3's, and 4's twice). Not once did I get the dream card. My best shot at anything was getting three to a royal in diamonds with a fourth diamond. I got the dream card which gave me a flush/four to a royal. I bricked all ten hands!
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
July 11th, 2015 at 1:49:37 PM
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Admin JB, thank you for your reply. The pay table is the one for ugly deuces (1,2,3,4,4,9,15,25,200,800).
When I thought about how much the 58% vs. 59% the difference is 1/60 of the pay table return for ugly deuces (98.91% vs. the pay table for dream card ugly deuces (99.91). The difference being 1% divided by 60 or 0.0167%. This reduces the return on the Dream card game to 99.89%. This small reduction is not worth worrying about. Do you agree with my math?
(I rounded off 58/59 to 60 and dropped extra digits in the calculations)
When I thought about how much the 58% vs. 59% the difference is 1/60 of the pay table return for ugly deuces (98.91% vs. the pay table for dream card ugly deuces (99.91). The difference being 1% divided by 60 or 0.0167%. This reduces the return on the Dream card game to 99.89%. This small reduction is not worth worrying about. Do you agree with my math?
(I rounded off 58/59 to 60 and dropped extra digits in the calculations)
July 11th, 2015 at 10:17:01 PM
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Quote: Rcparker99Admin JB, thank you for your reply. The pay table is the one for ugly deuces (1,2,3,4,4,9,15,25,200,800).
When I thought about how much the 58% vs. 59% the difference is 1/60 of the pay table return for ugly deuces (98.91% vs. the pay table for dream card ugly deuces (99.91). The difference being 1% divided by 60 or 0.0167%. This reduces the return on the Dream card game to 99.89%. This small reduction is not worth worrying about. Do you agree with my math?
(I rounded off 58/59 to 60 and dropped extra digits in the calculations)
No.
Think of it this way (also this may not be mathematically correct either, but I think it is a lot closer). If zero dream cards were awarded but you paid 10 credits per hand, then the return would be 98.91%/2 = 49.455%. This is the return without the Dream Card For 59% dream card probability it yields, 99.91%.
So the return in the "dream card" phase, represented by X, is roughly: (0.41)*(0.49455) + (0.59)*X = 0.9991
0.59X = 0.9991 - (0.41)*(0.49455)
0.59X = 0.7942845
X = 1.346244915
Now lowering the probability of a dream card from 59% to 58% then the return would become...
(0.42)*0.9891/2 + (0.58)*1.346244915 = 0.9885 = 98.85%...Lower than base paytable, hence why the Dream Card probability is usually 59%!!!
If you have a photo of this rule screen change that would be much appreciated. This is a significant difference.
July 12th, 2015 at 12:29:32 AM
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Tringlomane's approach is the correct one, though I think his numbers are slightly off somewhere.
0.9991 is the overall return
0.9891/2 = 0.49455 is the pure non-feature return
0.49455 x 0.41 = 0.202766 is the weighted non-feature return
0.9991 - 0.202766 = 0.796335 is the weighted feature return
0.796335 / 0.59 = 1.349719 is the pure feature return
Adjusting the weights we get:
0.49455 x 0.42 = 0.207711 is the new weighted non-feature return
1.349719 x 0.58 = 0.782837 is the new weighted feature return
0.207711 + 0.782837 = 0.990548 is the new overall return
This is only an estimate because of the precision used in the beginning (0.9991 and 0.9891).
I analyzed the game with a 58% feature trigger probability, and the actual return is 99.0575%.
0.9991 is the overall return
0.9891/2 = 0.49455 is the pure non-feature return
0.49455 x 0.41 = 0.202766 is the weighted non-feature return
0.9991 - 0.202766 = 0.796335 is the weighted feature return
0.796335 / 0.59 = 1.349719 is the pure feature return
Adjusting the weights we get:
0.49455 x 0.42 = 0.207711 is the new weighted non-feature return
1.349719 x 0.58 = 0.782837 is the new weighted feature return
0.207711 + 0.782837 = 0.990548 is the new overall return
This is only an estimate because of the precision used in the beginning (0.9991 and 0.9891).
I analyzed the game with a 58% feature trigger probability, and the actual return is 99.0575%.
July 12th, 2015 at 2:05:35 AM
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WTF is ugly deuces? Are you talking about the 15-9-4-4 paytable, AKA: Airport Deuces?
Trivia question. I'll give an internet cookie* if you can answer this correctly: Why is it common to refer to that paytable as airport deuces?
Trivia question. I'll give an internet cookie* if you can answer this correctly: Why is it common to refer to that paytable as airport deuces?
* Internet cookies are 100% worthless.**
** Well, the internet cookies I'm talking about are worthless. AKA: Not cookies that are stored on your computer.
July 12th, 2015 at 2:10:42 AM
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Quote: RSWTF is ugly deuces? Are you talking about the 15-9-4-4 paytable, AKA: Airport Deuces?
Trivia question. I'll give an internet cookie* if you can answer this correctly: Why is it common to refer to that paytable as airport deuces?* Internet cookies are 100% worthless.**** Well, the internet cookies I'm talking about are worthless. AKA: Not cookies that are stored on your computer.
Its kinda sad if I'm right: the deuces pay table was considered so horrible at one point it was only offered at the airport, land of the shitty pay backs on slots and VP.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
July 12th, 2015 at 4:19:43 PM
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I have a photo shot of the dream card instructions showing the 58%, but I am having trouble posting the photo here. I can email it to anyone who will provide their email address. My email is rcparker99@aol.com.
July 13th, 2015 at 8:48:54 AM
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rc,
This site doesn't host pictures, but it's easy to put them up.
Go to a photo site (I use tinypic.com because it's very simple, but you might be using something else in your life) and upload through them.
Copy the last link they provide of the 4 boxed addresses.
Come here and, in your reply, inside brackets "[]" type IMG=the address you copied from tinypic
That's all you have to do.
This site doesn't host pictures, but it's easy to put them up.
Go to a photo site (I use tinypic.com because it's very simple, but you might be using something else in your life) and upload through them.
Copy the last link they provide of the 4 boxed addresses.
Come here and, in your reply, inside brackets "[]" type IMG=the address you copied from tinypic
That's all you have to do.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
January 7th, 2017 at 11:10:35 AM
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I know this is an older thread, but the main question does not seem to have been answered. The Help screens at VP.com ALL have different values than on the Wiz’s page (JB 50 vs 50.5, DW 58 vs 59, DD Bonus 30 vs 31, etc.) I was under the impression that the numbers used by the Wiz were supplied by Action Gaming. Wrong? Or were the Wiz’s values just hypothetical?
January 8th, 2017 at 7:29:09 AM
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Sorry for the late arrival. I was given the following numbers by IGT when I first wrote about the game:
I've found that IGT is almost never in error in their math. However, sometimes they give me outdated rules.
My next trip to a casino I'll look for Dream Card and check the probabilities myself. However, if anyone can post screenshots, by all means, do.
| GAME DESCRIPTION | 5-coin Payback | 10-coin Payback | DreamCard Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| JACKS OR BETTER - 9/6 | 99.54% | 99.56% | 50.50% |
| JACKS OR BETTER - 8/6 | 98.39% | 98.40% | 50.50% |
| JACKS OR BETTER - 8/5 | 97.70% | 97.73% | 50.50% |
| JACKS OR BETTER - 7/5 | 96.15% | 96.57% | 50.50% |
| BONUS POKER - 8/5 | 99.17% | 99.27% | 46.70% |
| BONUS POKER - 7/5 | 98.02% | 98.15% | 46.70% |
| BONUS POKER - 6/5 | 96.87% | 97.04% | 46.70% |
| DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/7/5 | 99.11% | 99.17% | 33.70% |
| DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/6/5 | 97.81% | 98.44% | 33.70% |
| DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/6/4 | 96.38% | 97.25% | 33.70% |
| DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/5 | 95.27% | 96.61% | 33.70% |
| DOUBLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/6/4 | 98.98% | 99.04% | 31.00% |
| DOUBLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/5 | 97.87% | 98.41% | 31.00% |
| DOUBLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 8/5 | 96.79% | 97.52% | 31.00% |
| DOUBLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 7/5 | 95.71% | 96.66% | 31.00% |
| DEUCES WILD - 25/15/9/4/4/3 | 98.91% | 99.91% | 59.00% |
| DEUCES WILD - 20/12/10/4/4/3 | 97.58% | 98.10% | 59.00% |
| DEUCES WILD - 20/11/9/4/4/3 | 96.75% | 97.04% | 59.00% |
| DEUCES WILD - 20/10/8/4/4/3 | 95.96% | 96.02% | 59.00% |
| BONUS POKER DELUXE - 9/6 | 99.64% | 99.67% | 31.30% |
| BONUS POKER DELUXE - 9/5 | 98.49% | 99.05% | 31.30% |
| BONUS POKER DELUXE - 8/5 | 97.40% | 98.11% | 31.30% |
| BONUS POKER DELUXE - 7/5 | 96.25% | 97.17% | 31.30% |
| TRIPLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/6 | 98.15% | 98.21% | 26.70% |
| TRIPLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 8/6 | 97.11% | 97.44% | 26.70% |
| TRIPLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 7/5 | 94.92% | 96.01% | 26.70% |
| TRIPLE BONUS POKER - 10/7 | 98.52% | 98.54% | 27.00% |
| TRIPLE BONUS POKER - 9/7 | 97.45% | 97.71% | 27.00% |
| TRIPLE BONUS POKER - 9/6 | 95.88% | 96.85% | 27.00% |
| TRIPLE BONUS POKER - 9/5 | 94.53% | 96.08% | 27.00% |
I've found that IGT is almost never in error in their math. However, sometimes they give me outdated rules.
My next trip to a casino I'll look for Dream Card and check the probabilities myself. However, if anyone can post screenshots, by all means, do.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 8th, 2017 at 2:17:33 PM
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In defense of my own Dream Card probabilities, if we assumed the VideoPoker.com probability of 50% for Jacks or Better were true, then the return for that game would be 99.07% with the feature enabled. It would be very unlike IGT to give the player a lower return if he bets more.
I'm planning to go downtown this evening and will look for the game to confirm what the probabilities are, especially in deuces wild.
I'm planning to go downtown this evening and will look for the game to confirm what the probabilities are, especially in deuces wild.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 9th, 2017 at 3:45:14 PM
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After checking several casinos I finally found Dream Card at the Red Rock. Here were the stated Dream Card probabilities;
Bonus Poker: 46%
Deuces wild: 58%
Double bonus: 33%
Double Double bonus: 30%
Jacks or Better: 50%
Triple Double Bonus: 26%
I think some of these probabilities are rounded down, lest the return with 10 coins bet per line be less than 5 lines.
Bonus Poker: 46%
Deuces wild: 58%
Double bonus: 33%
Double Double bonus: 30%
Jacks or Better: 50%
Triple Double Bonus: 26%
I think some of these probabilities are rounded down, lest the return with 10 coins bet per line be less than 5 lines.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 9th, 2017 at 4:40:06 PM
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Quote: WizardAfter checking several casinos I finally found Dream Card at the Red Rock. Here were the stated Dream Card probabilities;
Bonus Poker: 46%
Deuces wild: 58%
Double bonus: 33%
Double Double bonus: 30%
Jacks or Better: 50%
Triple Double Bonus: 26%
I think some of these probabilities are rounded down, lest the return with 10 coins bet per line be less than 5 lines.
Yeah they can't round up, otherwise they open themselves up to complaints. But why not give the exact percentage to the nearest tenth? Were the people writing the help screen that lazy? But what's also concerning is your site claims Double Double Bonus is 31.0%, but the help screen claims 30%. A 30% hit rate would make 9/6 DDB Dream Card pay less than standard 9/6 DDB. And like you say, that's traditionally been a no-no with "gimmick games".
January 12th, 2017 at 5:18:13 PM
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I asked IGT for a clarification on the Dream Card probabilities and still haven't heard back. Thanks to some help from Gary Koehler, I analyzed every game and pay table assuming the probabilities stated on the machines are right. Then, I updated my Dream Card page to show the return both ways.
As the truth finder of all things gambling, I hate to leave it up to the player which to believe, but at this point I have to do that given two credible and differing sources on the Dream Card probabilities.
I'll update you if I get any further information.
As the truth finder of all things gambling, I hate to leave it up to the player which to believe, but at this point I have to do that given two credible and differing sources on the Dream Card probabilities.
I'll update you if I get any further information.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 23rd, 2017 at 4:08:42 PM
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I'd like to announce that JB has modified the video poker analyzer to make the Dream Card probability configurable. It defaults to the probabilities I was given by IGT.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 21st, 2017 at 7:42:47 PM
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any update of 58% vs 59% probability?Quote: WizardI asked IGT for a clarification on the Dream Card probabilities and still haven't heard back. Thanks to some help from Gary Koehler, I analyzed every game and pay table assuming the probabilities stated on the machines are right. Then, I updated my Dream Card page to show the return both ways.
As the truth finder of all things gambling, I hate to leave it up to the player which to believe, but at this point I have to do that given two credible and differing sources on the Dream Card probabilities.
I'll update you if I get any further information.
and where is Dreamcard 25-15-9-4-4-3 dw found?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
October 22nd, 2017 at 8:38:22 AM
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Quote: 100xOddsand where is Dreamcard 25-15-9-4-4-3 dw found?
This is disturbing to have one's EV dependent on IGT's competence.
On vpfree2, the game is listed at one casino: two machines, $1 5/10 play. I don't want to name the casino, but it's a tribal in California. A search at vpfree2 will give you the name.
