I've had it!

This game is unwinnable. I have been counting cards for 20 years. I am very good at it. I never had any success until 3 years ago, and finally got ahead but ran into an incredible run of dealer luck that busted my bankroll. Last year I built up a better one, but a 6 month losing streak wiped that out, too, earlier this year.

The problem seems not to have anything to do with errors, bet spread, house rules, or any of the other standard explanations made by the card counting publishing experts.. The fact is that in order to get ahead, one must struggle to maintain a lead, in the context of a game, a session, day, week or year of play. Sessions of good winning don't happen with enough frequency to overcome the bad ones, which occur much more frequently. Although I've had many very good sessions, I've had more bad ones, with longer duration, plus many where I lost less.

Dealers can win 10-12 hands in a row almost routinely, while players winning more than 4 or 5 in a row is extremely rare. I've dropped session bankrolls while winning scarcely a hand many, many times, but more rarely see them doubled. Likewise, it's easy to lose several sessions in a row, but difficult to win even back to back sessions. In short the dealer seems to get all, or MOST of the good hands. Dealer gets mostly tens up, with tens in the hole, more blackjacks than me, small cards to stiffs, and a frequency of tens on 9, 10, 11 that I feel like I'm in the twilight zone a lot of the time. The dealer hits most stiffs without busting while I bust at least every other one. All the while, I find myself staring down the barrel of a ten while holding a stiff most of the time.There's just no way that they could have a ten in the hole 60% or more of the time when they have a ten up, but they do. Unexplicably, this goes on hand after hand, day in, day out, month after month, year after year. Last night, in a shoe game (I usually play 2 deck, I was flat betting the minimum just for fun) I played 32 hands, won five, pushed four (three with a 20, one with a 21), lost the rest. The dealer hit four 16s in a row, with three 2s and a 4, and beat me every time. Though this is not typical, it's not unusual either.

This short game just kind of summed up my 20 year "career". It made me realize what I have known for years: just how hard it is to win this game. I've tried everything. Nothing works "The long run" seems to be against me too..

I'm throwing in the towel. It's impossible to win in a long run game where the dealer draws cards like they routinely do, at least in my experience. It usually ends on a particularly sour note-high counts, (therefore high bets), split, double down, dealer shows 5 or 6, dealer flips over total of ten or 11 and naturally hits a ten while I get crap, or else dealer has 15 or 16 and makes a 20 or 21 anyway(in spite of high counts), repeat frequently until I'm tapped out. This has happened to me three times in three years. I started out with small bankrolls that I painstakingly built into relatively big ones and then lost them as I have described. I consider myself lucky that I haven't been financially hurt too bad. I just don't see a future in this game that looks exactly as though it was rigged by the house, even though I realize it is not. I suppose it's probable that a few in the bell curve of millions of players are winning in the long run. Congratulations to those of you who are. Good luck to all of you. You'll need it.

Dang, 20 years of losing? And you kept with it. How much did you play (hours in a week or month or year)?

Quote: Infidel

I'm throwing in the towel.

Okay, but remember: its a hotel towel, you are at a hotel pool, your stay is comped, your meals are comped .....and because you are up at the pool, you have learned the most important lesson: when you ain't winning, stop playing.

Quote: Infidel

This game is unwinnable. I have been counting cards for 20 years. I am very good at it. I never had any success until 3 years ago, and finally got ahead but ran into an incredible run of dealer luck that busted my bankroll. Last year I built up a better one, but a 6 month losing streak wiped that out, too, earlier this year.

The problem seems not to have anything to do with errors, bet spread, house rules, or any of the other standard explanations made by the card counting publishing experts.. The fact is that in order to get ahead, one must struggle to maintain a lead, in the context of a game, a session, day, week or year of play. Sessions of good winning don't happen with enough frequency to overcome the bad ones, which occur much more frequently. Although I've had many very good sessions, I've had more bad ones, with longer duration, plus many where I lost less.

Dealers can win 10-12 hands in a row almost routinely, while players winning more than 4 or 5 in a row is extremely rare. I've dropped session bankrolls while winning scarcely a hand many, many times, but more rarely see them doubled. Likewise, it's easy to lose several sessions in a row, but difficult to win even back to back sessions. In short the dealer seems to get all, or MOST of the good hands. Dealer gets mostly tens up, with tens in the hole, more blackjacks than me, small cards to stiffs, and a frequency of tens on 9, 10, 11 that I feel like I'm in the twilight zone a lot of the time. The dealer hits most stiffs without busting while I bust at least every other one. All the while, I find myself staring down the barrel of a ten while holding a stiff most of the time.There's just no way that they could have a ten in the hole 60% or more of the time when they have a ten up, but they do. Unexplicably, this goes on hand after hand, day in, day out, month after month, year after year. Last night, in a shoe game (I usually play 2 deck, I was flat betting the minimum just for fun) I played 32 hands, won five, pushed four (three with a 20, one with a 21), lost the rest. The dealer hit four 16s in a row, with three 2s and a 4, and beat me every time. Though this is not typical, it's not unusual either.

This short game just kind of summed up my 20 year "career". It made me realize what I have known for years: just how hard it is to win this game. I've tried everything. Nothing works "The long run" seems to be against me too..

I'm throwing in the towel. It's impossible to win in a long run game where the dealer draws cards like they routinely do, at least in my experience. It usually ends on a particularly sour note-high counts, (therefore high bets), split, double down, dealer shows 5 or 6, dealer flips over total of ten or 11 and naturally hits a ten while I get crap, or else dealer has 15 or 16 and makes a 20 or 21 anyway(in spite of high counts), repeat frequently until I'm tapped out. This has happened to me three times in three years. I started out with small bankrolls that I painstakingly built into relatively big ones and then lost them as I have described. I consider myself lucky that I haven't been financially hurt too bad. I just don't see a future in this game that looks exactly as though it was rigged by the house, even though I realize it is not. I suppose it's probable that a few in the bell curve of millions of players are winning in the long run. Congratulations to those of you who are. Good luck to all of you. You'll need it.

I have good news! The game of blackjack is winnable. Most don't win, however, and that includes "very good" card counters. You had no success for the first 17 years out of 20 years. Did you make some changes in year 18?

No one is immune to horrible experiences but let's not succumb to selective memory. The dealer does not have a 10 in the hole 60% of the time or more. It's about half that. The dealer does not always hit those 16s successfully. Unlike the players, the dealer must hit every 16. For that reason he will make more of them. Selective memory does not recognize the times that he breaks.

A skilled counter should be ahead in the long run, the longer the run the more ahead. If not something is wrong. Would you like us to take a look at your game? Are you open to the possibility that your game may need a "tune up" or that you may be playing poor games? There is an explanation in there somewhere.

What count do you use for the six deck game? The double deck? Do you use index play? Wong in and out? What are the exact rules of each game? Betting spread for each? How many other players are typically at your table? Now the big one. What is the penetration on each game? Even the best counter will have problems with poor pen.

Do you keep records? How many hours of play are we talking about? Twenty years could still be a small sample size. If you want to pursue this there are some good people here that can steer you on the right path. Maybe one of our sim guys will chime in. Your job right now is to keep an open mind and be willing to make any changes that may be suggested. Deal?

Playing for 20 years it can be said with massive confidence that showdowns* with the dealer has not been the problem. The dealer must hit 16 and less as 1BB notes, but also cannot split, double-down, surrender, maybe some other things I have forgotten, and gets paid even money for naturals. His sole advantage is that he wins every time the player busts.

Having said all that, the impression I get playing BJ is that the dealer keeps beating me in showdowns! We are all victims of this illusion! I am not trying to get on your back but for the sake of a player's own sanity he must shake this thing or go mad - this because there is an emotional cost to believing the dealer is just flat out getting better cards.

*I am using the term even though I don't see gambling writers use it. I assume everybody knows what I mean

Quote: 1BB

I have good news! The game of blackjack is winnable. Most don't win, however, and that includes "very good" card counters. You had no success for the first 17 years out of 20 years. Did you make some changes in year 18?

No one is immune to horrible experiences but let's not succumb to selective memory. The dealer does not have a 10 in the hole 60% of the time or more. It's about half that. The dealer does not always hit those 16s successfully. Unlike the players, the dealer must hit every 16. For that reason he will make more of them. Selective memory does not recognize the times that he breaks.

A skilled counter should be ahead in the long run, the longer the run the more ahead. If not something is wrong. Would you like us to take a look at your game? Are you open to the possibility that your game may need a "tune up" or that you may be playing poor games? There is an explanation in there somewhere.

What count do you use for the six deck game? The double deck? Do you use index play? Wong in and out? What are the exact rules of each game? Betting spread for each? How many other players are typically at your table? Now the big one. What is the penetration on each game? Even the best counter will have problems with poor pen.

Do you keep records? How many hours of play are we talking about? Twenty years could still be a small sample size. If you want to pursue this there are some good people here that can steer you on the right path. Maybe one of our sim guys will chime in. Your job right now is to keep an open mind and be willing to make any changes that may be suggested. Deal?

This, this right here is the reason that I joined this board!
We get so side tracked so often by Trolls that muck up the whole damn thing.
And I forget the reason that I joined.

Thanks for the reminder 1BB! Thank you very much.
I sincerely hope that he takes you up on your offer.

Quote: texasplumr

This, this right here is the reason that I joined this board!
We get so side tracked so often by Trolls that muck up the whole damn thing.
And I forget the reason that I joined.

Thanks for the reminder 1BB! Thank you very much.
I sincerely hope that he takes you up on your offer.

Thank you for the very kind words, texasplumr. I'd much rather talk about blackjack than wonder about who's who or comment on who got an unfair suspension. It's the good people on this board that have kept me here as well.

More importantly, have you ever lost 30 hands in a row?

This seems an odd thread. The poster doesn't mention exactly how often he plays (once per year as opposed to once per week) so we are left to guess how big a sample size he is really talking about. The mention of six month losing period and a couple other comments lead you to believe he plays fairly regular and if that is the case, it's hard to believe it would take 17 years of losing for him to wonder what is wrong.

I hate to think the worst, but you have to wonder if a new poster with few posts to his name, making such a post isn't really someone trying to discourage card counting. But assuming the post and poster legit, and that 20 years represents a reasonable amount of play, it sure sounds like he is doing something wrong. Maybe not spreading enough to overcome the IHA or playing a game with bad rules or bad penetration that makes overcoming the IHA difficult. In other words: If legit, I guess I am questioning if he is as "good" a counter as he claims. To me, something just sound not right about this post. :/

Quote: kewlj

This seems an odd thread. The poster doesn't mention exactly how often he plays (once per year as opposed to once per week) so we are left to guess how big a sample size he is really talking about. The mention of six month losing period and a couple other comments lead you to believe he plays fairly regular and if that is the case, it's hard to believe it would take 17 years of losing for him to wonder what is wrong.

I hate to think the worst, but you have to wonder if a new poster with few posts to his name, making such a post isn't really someone trying to discourage card counting. But assuming the post and poster legit, and that 20 years represents a reasonable amount of play, it sure sounds like he is doing something wrong. Maybe not spreading enough to overcome the IHA or playing a game with bad rules or bad penetration that makes overcoming the IHA difficult. In other words: If legit, I guess I am questioning if he is as "good" a counter as he claims. To me, something just sound not right about this post. :/

Yup, i definitely see some fishy posts recently. Also, i see little in the OP that makes me certain that he is "excellent" at blackjack.

Quote: odiousgambit

The dealer must hit 16 and less as 1BB notes, but also cannot split, double-down, surrender.... and gets paid even money for naturals. His sole advantage is that he wins every time the player busts.

Oh, it also occurs to me that the dealer cannot increase his bets on the basis that the count is now in his favor.

I'm harsh. I guess you could say the OP knows all this and is only launching off from expectations in a positive count, but as we recently saw from AoS, to focus so much on how the dealer has better cards when this is not how to correctly see the game, is to sink into a funk that is misplaced. It's not how I expect an AP to be handling it, devolving into floppy-think.

Quote: texasplumr

This, this right here is the reason that I joined this board!
We get so side tracked so often by Trolls that muck up the whole damn thing.
And I forget the reason that I joined.

Thanks for the reminder 1BB! Thank you very much.
I sincerely hope that he takes you up on your offer.

Well said Texas......1BB, Kewlj, Romes and many other BJ experts I am forgetting are some of the best "value adders" of the Forum!!

Quote: kewlj

To me, something just sound not right about this post. :/

Yup. I quit reading it halfway thru.
Some of his 'facts' seem wrong.
Or he only plays once a month, then
it all makes sense.

"I have come to doubt all that I once held as true."

I'm Done with BJ cc too, unless circumstances are absolutely ideal and I'm pretty much in desperation/weakness mode.

Quote: GWAE

More importantly, have you ever lost 30 hands in a row?

I may have. It's just not something that I keep track of. Why in the world would I?

Now, here I am wondering why the OP hasn't posted again in his own thread.

That's what trolls do to the board. Even if a person posts a legit post I catch myself dissecting everything about it and them.

Dammit.

Quote: 1BB

I may have. It's just not something that I keep track of. Why in the world would I?

You never really know exactly. You probably only start noticing after you just lost a bunch in a row. Then you may start counting and guesstimate how many you just lost, however you're probably off by 3 or 4.

Sure some people can actually remember perfectly, however them are the guys that probably don't care to repeat it.

Quote: 1BB

I may have. It's just not something that I keep track of. Why in the world would I?

Sorry the question was for the OP.

Quote: texasplumr

Now, here I am wondering why the OP hasn't posted again in his own thread.

Perhaps the OP is really Paigowdan? employing a new approach to discourage AP's.

Quote: GWAE

Sorry the question was for the OP.

No problem. Apparently some players keep track of such things and it really serves no purpose. Time would be better spent learning more index plays and learning a stronger count as well as a side count for those pitch games.

Quote: 1BB

No problem. Apparently some players keep track of such things and it really serves no purpose. Time would be better spent learning more index plays and learning a stronger count as well as a side count for those pitch games.

I can answer the question for me, I count weird things. Record losses in a row is 20, had been 15 for a long time. Record wins in a row is 13 or 14. When I 1st typed it said 'record winos in a row', I almost left it that way ;-)

It's just like I told you. I'm sure I've made mistakes, but I'm telling you that the dealers simply get fantastic cards a a greater rate than they should. But I knew that the "selective memory" argument would materialize sooner rather than later, and all your points are well taken. I've also had some pretty good periods of winning in the last three years, when I started playing more seriously. Actually, I'm only down a small amount over that period, but the point is I was way up a couple of times, after months of struggling, only to run into about a 6 week buzz saw where the dealer suddenly can do no wrong, wins a huge proportion of hands, and eviscerates my bankroll.

The only records I have are not that good. I realize the games I play in are not that "good" either. I play at a couple of Indian casinos where the rules are fair, DD penetration poor in one, (about 50-55%), rules better in the second one with better penetration, (about 70%) but I can't play there anymore because I was banned from BJ because the pit boss said I was "too 'good' for their little casino" after a couple of hours when I beat the crap out of them, (I also had won 11 of 12 sessions there in two week's time at that point, but it didn't seem to be enough money to actually hurt them at all) so I was stuck with the other. There are several other games around, but they all feature NDAS so I don't play there. Vegas is not an option except an occasional trip, and I've not been there in quite a while. So I know what I'm up against. It's just hard to believe that Vegas suits wouldn't peg a counter just as easily as that novice at that hick Indian casino.

And I know that in at least some games, over my normal period of 2-3 hours of session play, the dealer gets 10 up and then 10 in the hole at least 60% of the time. Sure, it probably evens out somewhere else, at another time, but when this happens with higher counts, it's devastating. I'm conservative with the betting spread, (1-5 to 1-10, depending on the minimum) because I'm underfunded most of the time, but I would have lost much sooner with a bigger betting spread because of the dealer's fantastic luck on high counts. I know, I know. If I had lots of money I wouldn't be trying to win more by playing blackjack. OK, so I'm not that good. But I'm convinced my count (simple hi/lo) is accurate. I use the illustrious 18 (I never split 10, however), my BS is good, I sometimes cover on low bets (like doubling/splitting on -1 or -2 counts) , I go to two hands on high counts when I can.

My records basically suck, just win/loss session records for the last 18 months or so. I'll restrict discussion to that period of time, since it's the most relevant. So, there is plenty of grist for you there, I'm sure.

I'm not asking for help, because, as I said, I feel like I never want to hit another stiff, at least until I feel confident that I can win, and not encounter so much dealer luck. Oh, hell, maybe I just need a long break. But if you guys want to send some good advice my way, I will graciously accept, and I thank you in advance.

I am speaking the truth. I don't think you are ignorant people. If I did, I wouldn't have posted here. I think you'll treat me fairly.

Variance in black jack is enormous, I'm gonna go way out on a limb and guess you are way over betting your bank roll.

No, I'm legit. Just discouraged. I just have been devastated by incredible dealer luck, and can't help thinking that the deck is stacked or something. Though I know it's not. I would only count the last three years as being any kind of a "good" player, but I've seen these kind of dealer-dominated sessions for years. I used to read a lot of bj forums in the '90s and I saw some of the DG shenanigans. I assure you that I am not here to pull any of that crap. I was just at the end when I posted, and I was venting. But everything I said was true. Hopefully my more recent post is more informative. I don't know if I'll start playing again. I like it but it doesn't like me. And no, I'm probably not that "good". But I know what the count is, and how to bet. It seems that the dealer always manages to pull fantastic cards at just the right time, often enough to annihilate me just when I'm doing well. If this doesn't happen to you too often, well, then, congrats.

It's funny Rainman. I started with a small bankroll, and bet as conservative as I could, and with both my last two bankrolls, built them up considerably to where I was not over betting them. At first, though, I was over betting them. But it was after they got pretty healthy, where I thought they could sustain what I was betting before, that the dealer went on a rampage, and busted both bankrolls in a similar manner. In a relative hurry. And yeah. Variance IS enormous.

Sorry. Been gone a few days. Only do this at home. I just came here to vent at first, but I'm taking a long needed break. I was playing 3-4 days a week, 2-4 hrs a day for the last two years or so.. I don't have a lot of time for this, but I will check back, and I've already left more info. Just keep the backbiting to a minimum, ok guys? I'm no troll. I didn't say "excellent", only "very good". OK maybe not so good. OK, Competent. But oh, well, I'm no pro. I admit that.

Infidel, can you tell me the following?

- EV per 100 hands [in terms of min-bet unit]
- Std. Dev. per 100 hands [in terms of min-bet unit]
- Average Edge
- Your risk of ruin (ROR) and/or fraction of Kelly you're betting.
- N00

Quote: RS

Infidel, can you tell me the following?

- EV per 100 hands [in terms of min-bet unit]
- Std. Dev. per 100 hands [in terms of min-bet unit]
- Average Edge
- Your risk of ruin (ROR) and/or fraction of Kelly you're betting.
- N00

Show Spoiler

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess you don't know what any of those figures are for your game.....except you might have a vague idea of your EV/100-hands.

A quiz? Really?

Nice

Quote: Sabretom2

Quote: RS

Infidel, can you tell me the following?

- EV per 100 hands [in terms of min-bet unit]
- Std. Dev. per 100 hands [in terms of min-bet unit]
- Average Edge
- Your risk of ruin (ROR) and/or fraction of Kelly you're betting.
- N00

Show Spoiler

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess you don't know what any of those figures are for your game.....except you might have a vague idea of your EV/100-hands.

A quiz? Really?

Nice

+1. Rubbing salt in wounds. We've pretty much all been where Infidel is.

Did you mean minus one for rubbing salt in wounds?

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Did you mean minus one for rubbing salt in wounds?

I was "Plus 1"-ing SabreTom's response. The guy's in a slump, came here to express his frustration (not the first to do so by far).

"Minus 1" to RS, I guess. lol.

Quote: Infidel

...The only records I have are not that good. I realize the games I play in are not that "good" either. I play at a couple of Indian casinos where the rules are fair, DD penetration poor in one, (about 50-55%), rules better in the second one with better penetration, (about 70%) but I can't play there anymore because I was banned from BJ because the pit boss said I was "too 'good' for their little casino" after a couple of hours when I beat the crap out of them, (I also had won 11 of 12 sessions there in two week's time at that point, but it didn't seem to be enough money to actually hurt them at all) so I was stuck with the other. There are several other games around, but they all feature NDAS so I don't play there. Vegas is not an option except an occasional trip, and I've not been there in quite a while. So I know what I'm up against. It's just hard to believe that Vegas suits wouldn't peg a counter just as easily as that novice at that hick Indian casino.

And I know that in at least some games, over my normal period of 2-3 hours of session play, the dealer gets 10 up and then 10 in the hole at least 60% of the time. Sure, it probably evens out somewhere else, at another time, but when this happens with higher counts, it's devastating. I'm conservative with the betting spread, (1-5 to 1-10, depending on the minimum) because I'm underfunded most of the time, but I would have lost much sooner with a bigger betting spread because of the dealer's fantastic luck on high counts. I know, I know. If I had lots of money I wouldn't be trying to win more by playing blackjack. OK, so I'm not that good. But I'm convinced my count (simple hi/lo) is accurate. I use the illustrious 18 (I never split 10, however), my BS is good, I sometimes cover on low bets (like doubling/splitting on -1 or -2 counts) , I go to two hands on high counts when I can.

My records basically suck, just win/loss session records for the last 18 months or so. I'll restrict discussion to that period of time, since it's the most relevant. So, there is plenty of grist for you there, I'm sure.

I'm not asking for help, because, as I said, I feel like I never want to hit another stiff, at least until I feel confident that I can win, and not encounter so much dealer luck. Oh, hell, maybe I just need a long break. But if you guys want to send some good advice my way, I will graciously accept, and I thank you in advance...

(emphasis added)

Hello Infidel! I must say, your thread caught my eye because I too have felt this struggle over the years. I've had 6 month losing sprees and just been pounded again and again where anything I do is wrong (while the idiot to my left is doubling down on hard 7 against a 10 and winning constantly). I've been doing this part time (~5 hours per week) for nearly a decade. Believe me when I say I understand your emotional roller coaster and struggles. Now, with all that being said, I want to chime in a several of the highlighted issues I see above:

1) You say you've been counting for 20 years, yet you have no fashion of record keeping past win/loss statements (which are usually horrifically inaccurate - especially if you're ratholing). This is just plain unacceptable to anyone claiming to be any kind of serious (even part time) counter. As RS pointed out, you MUST know all of your stats for a game. In my A-Z thread I point out the biggest thing I can say about blackjack and card counting is "don't think you have a winning game, know you have a winning game!" Without record keeping it's nearly impossible to prove mathematically that you're playing correctly and have a winning game. Sure, you can be confident in your count, use indexes, but we all make mistakes and are usually far too reliant on our subjective memory. I've had sessions where I walked away thinking "OMG I KNOW I WAS JUST CHEATED!!!" but then when I plug the numbers in later for my record keeping I'm not even 1-SD out of expectation. Record keeping puts your play in to perspective. You can look at the EV/CE you generate per session, regardless of how much you actually made per session. Blackjack is about hands. You can win or lose a grand in an hour, but the idea is to play millions of hands so that you erase the variance (luck) of the game. How will you know when you've reached a point where luck shouldn't be a factor anymore and you should be up "X" after so many hours/hands? You won't. Without record keeping you're just spit-balling and using that "infallible" memory we all have. I really am only attempting to solicit advice (even if you don't want it =p) but without record keeping, you have no right to complain about wins/losses/expectations... because you don't know what your expectations even are.

2) Everything in BJ is important, from every rule, to PEN, etc. This, of course, you're well aware of. I just want to point out that even under your own admission you play games that "aren't that good" with "not that great" penetration. It sounds to me (please correct me if I'm wrong) that you only have a few options around you and are more/less forced to play slightly poorer rules? If this is the case, there's not a whole lot you can do geographically speaking, but what you can do is work your spread to maximize your EV given the poorer rules/conditions. You state that you spread 1-5 or 1-10 pending the table min. Unless you're betting $50 min or $100 min tables, this concerns me greatly! Assuming you're referring to $10 and $25 tables for your 1-10 and 1-5 spreads respectively, I can tell you without yet running the numbers that you're looking at a MEASLY hourly EV. You're not spreading nearly enough to be profitable. Again, I could be wrong on your denominations, and let me know if I am... but at these spreads you're looking to make the following:

Assuming 2D, DAS, DA2, resplit to 4 hands, H17, no surrender, 3-2... that's a HE = .45% (using the Wiz's HE calculator). Getting 100 hands per hour at decent penetration (70%), you're looking at a grand total of... $17.83/hour for the 1-10 spread (assuming nickles), and $18.79/hour for the 1-5 spread (assuming quarters).

Note, this does not include any mistakes/etc. Also note... this is with me MAXIMIZING your EV by having your big bet out at TC +4 and ramping fairly aggressively to get to it. If you're not ramping as hard as I am, again, your numbers will be lower. So off the top, you're not breaking any banks... and not only that, that is for good DD penetration! I've got to figure at the 50-55% range (I don't keep the frequencies for that range even) you're nearly halving your EV per hour to something like $8.50/hour. Welcome to minimum wage with swings of variance in both directions. From here it would take you a long time to climb that mountain to a decent profit.

The last thing I want to say about your play is your 2-3 hour sessions and spreading horizontally at double deck games... Especially if you're dipping in to quarter double deck games you simply can't expect to play 2-3 hour sessions for years on end. Are you playing rated? I would assume since this place is geographically your home shop that you are. If you're going to play DD with any kind of longevity you simply can't camp out for 2-3 hour sessions at a time. Now, your spread is a bit lower, but eventually the casino will figure you out. Eventually, they figure everyone out. After all, it's not that hard =). Playing 2-3 hour sessions, rated, at the same place every weekend, will definitely get you noticed. It sounds like you played there a lot longer than I would have expected you too. Also, I haven't even mentioned a BIG reason for that thought yet... You said you spread to 2 hands. Horizontal spreading is something that's getting much more noticed. Again, this is amplified for DD games. Spreading horizontally in DD games will get you heat, even with a small spread. Now add in your 2-3 hour sessions and playing rated where they can track you every weekend for years, and it should come as no surprise that the casino doesn't want your business as they don't believe you are profitable to them.

3) That selective memory we all share seems to even be coming through in your own post. You state that "I bet it evens out elsewhere" for the dealers amazing 10 up and 10 in the hole, yet you're still saying that's a reason you're quitting the game. Again, I know the emotional roller coaster. I know that it REALLY does feel rigged at times. After all, the dealer hand is just another hand at the table, right? How can they always get the hand and your 'random' hand doesn't?!?! But to me, this emotional roller coaster you've been on is only amplified by the fact that you have no record keeping. You have no way to balance yourself out with the reality of the mathematics of what you're doing. You have no way to say "Yeah, I lost a grand tonight, but I was in some great situations and made a ton of CE" understanding that tonight isn't where you make your money, after a million or so hands is where you make it =).

Record keeping allows you to think of it this way: There's a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Every time you place a good bet in a good situation you're adding anything from pennies to dollars to that pot. After a million or so hands you are allowed to collect from that pot of gold. ANYTHING in between is just variance and standard deviations... But once you get to a mathematical point of certainty then my friend, it's a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow!

If you choose to be done, then so be it. I've contemplated being done several times over my career. I've contemplated whether or not I was doing it right, getting cheated, etc. My records show me where I'm at and where I can expect to be after X hands/hours/years, and I'm comfortable with that. Just don't think it doesn't work, is rigged, etc. Don't quit because you think it can't be beat (as you said in your OP). Quit because you're no longer enjoying the game, because trust me, I can prove to you it can be beat =p.

Sorry, RS. I don't have that info. My guess is that your implication is that I should go back to school. I'll take that under advisement.

Quote: rainman

Variance in black jack is enormous, I'm gonna go way out on a limb and guess you are way over betting your bank roll.

I don't like guessing at things when I don't have all the info or details, but I am thinking something along these lines as well.

My first thought was selective memory. It SEEMS like you are losing more than winning and/or losing more than you should be. OP claims he has records and that is not the case, so I take him at his word.

So my second thought is he is doing SOMETHING wrong. Blackjack play, card counting comes with huge variance, huge swings. You will encounter long periods of losing (trust me) that can be frustrating and discouraging. But not years and years worth. Assuming a reasonable amount of play (big enough sample size), you get to where the math says you should be, unless you are doing something wrong.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Quote: Sabretom2

Quote: RS

Infidel, can you tell me the following?

- EV per 100 hands [in terms of min-bet unit]
- Std. Dev. per 100 hands [in terms of min-bet unit]
- Average Edge
- Your risk of ruin (ROR) and/or fraction of Kelly you're betting.
- N00

Show Spoiler

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess you don't know what any of those figures are for your game.....except you might have a vague idea of your EV/100-hands.

A quiz? Really?

Nice

+1. Rubbing salt in wounds. We've pretty much all been where Infidel is.

Middle east?

Quote: djatc

Rubbing salt in wounds. We've pretty much all been where Infidel is.

Quote:

Middle east?

No,,,,Wash. DC, lol

Quote: Infidel

Sorry, RS. I don't have that info. My guess is that your implication is that I should go back to school. I'll take that under advisement.

I break down pretty much everything mentioned in my A to Z Counting Cards in Blackjack thread. Also, I revamped the thread and it's 4.5x larger and being made in to 3 articles on the WoV articles section, so keep an eye out for that as well.

To me, this is the difference between thinking you have a winning game, and knowing you have a winning game. Plus, as I mentioned prior, it keeps the sanity when running bad =p.

Romes:

Thank you for the thoughtful and exhaustive critique. What you say makes abundant sense, and I think you are right, and I should know everything you said already. Question: What are the best sources of info to improve my game? Books, websites, etc? What's the best way to learn how to really do all this correctly? There are so many scams and pitfalls out there that I find i've ignored most of it to avoid the hucksters. Obviously I need to learn to keep and analyze proper records, for starters.

I know that I can't make much at my level of play even with perfect play. Your comments about them "figuring you out" are on the mark. After all, I know most of the dealers and suits by name. But the one casino where I am forced to play all the time now, doesn't seem to care, I assume, because I just can't beat them. But in the thousands of hours I've played there, I've never seen anybody counting cards. Not once. So I don't think they look all that hard. It has occurred to me that I should stick out like a sore thumb to them, but I get the sense that the bosses are amateurs and mostly clueless. Even the one at the other place that barred me only seemed to do so because I ran into an amazing run of short-run luck. But yeah, you're right, my options are extremely limited here.

Thanks again. I'll check that out as well.

Quote: Infidel

Romes:

Thank you for the thoughtful and exhaustive critique. What you say makes abundant sense, and I think you are right, and I should know everything you said already. Question: What are the best sources of info to improve my game? Books, websites, etc? What's the best way to learn how to really do all this correctly? There are so many scams and pitfalls out there that I find i've ignored most of it to avoid the hucksters. Obviously I need to learn to keep and analyze proper records, for starters.

I know that I can't make much at my level of play even with perfect play. Your comments about them "figuring you out" are on the mark. After all, I know most of the dealers and suits by name. But the one casino where I am forced to play all the time now, doesn't seem to care, I assume, because I just can't beat them. But in the thousands of hours I've played there, I've never seen anybody counting cards. Not once. So I don't think they look all that hard. It has occurred to me that I should stick out like a sore thumb to them, but I get the sense that the bosses are amateurs and mostly clueless. Even the one at the other place that barred me only seemed to do so because I ran into an amazing run of short-run luck. But yeah, you're right, my options are extremely limited here.

Trust me, I could have went on lol... Well, being that your options are limited you must know you'll eventually run in to a tough situation. What happens when you get backed off from the place that "doesn't seem to care?" Sure, they might not for now, but eventually someone will get hired, want a raise, who knows... someone will care enough to evaluate and when they do they'll eventually catch on. One thing I'll get out of the way right now is if you're playing at indian casinos, BEWARE. These places pretty much have their own laws, courts, etc, and pretty much could just steal your money and you'd have to take them to their own courts to try to get it back.

I was in the same spot as you a while back. I knew all the pieces, but didn't know how to put it together. Honestly, even though I may be a bit biased, I put together the A-Z thread I linked to you already for players like you. You're not a beginner by any means, you know the lingo, you know the game, you know all of the pieces, but the one spot you struggle with is putting them all together. In the thread I do exactly that, from "A to Z" =p. I show you how to make an excel document to quantify ANY game of blackjack you could play so that you KNOW your hourly EV. I show how to calculate the standard deviations, etc. Like I said, the 3 articles are going to be even much more expansive. If you'd like shoot me a PM with an e-mail address and I'll forward you the 3 articles. It should shed a lot of light on how to pull all the pieces together. Of course, if you have any questions, feel free to ask them in the thread or PM me =).

Quote: Infidel

But I'm convinced my count (simple hi/lo) is accurate... I am speaking the truth. I don't think you are ignorant people. If I did, I wouldn't have posted here. I think you'll treat me fairly.

The Hi-Lo Count ignores the eight and nines which can be devastating to double downs on 10/11, if there is a shortage of them. The same goes for dealer busts. We win more often with more 8/9's left. Since you play double deck, insurance plays an important role. The accuracy of the Hi-Count for the insurance side bet is terrible since the aces are counted as high cards instead of low cards. Here is my take of the Hi-Lo Count https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLtT8fzQsTc

Quote: JSTAT

The Hi-Lo Count ignores the eight and nines which can be devastating to double downs on 10/11, if there is a shortage of them. The same goes for dealer busts. We win more often with more 8/9's left. Since you play double deck, insurance plays an important role. The accuracy of the Hi-Count for the insurance side bet is terrible since the aces are counted as high cards instead of low cards. Here is my take of the Hi-Lo Count https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLtT8fzQsTc

The information you present is nonsense. The Ten-count is a horrible count for card counting blackjack. Its betting correlation (B/C) is only 0.791.

Video title: Hi-Lo Blackjack Card Counting Conspiracy

7:48 in your video - "If you want to lose, play hi-lo ... drink the Kool-Aid."

You have been trying to show the Ten Count works for everything for years, for everything from baccarat to the Dragon 7 bet, to blackjack. But, you are unable to present any facts to back up your case (which is baseless anyway). And any time someone posts a refutation, you make an attack video and post it. For example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hju6zj4VphU

Youtube took down your attack video against Norm Wattenberger, but it was shameful.

http://www.zenzoneforum.com/threads/25705-JSTAT-refutes-Norm-CV-dismissal-of-system?p=209268

Quote: teliot

The information you present is nonsense. The Ten-count is a horrible count for card counting blackjack. Its betting correlation (B/C) is only 0.791.

Video title: Hi-Lo Blackjack Card Counting Conspiracy

7:48 in your video - "If you want to lose, play hi-lo ... drink the Kool-Aid."

You have been trying to show the Ten Count works for everything for years, for everything from baccarat to the Dragon 7 bet, to blackjack. But, you are unable to present any facts to back up your case (which is baseless anyway). And any time someone posts a refutation, you make an attack video and post it. For example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hju6zj4VphU

Excuse me, but you attacked me first with that Baccarat FlimFlam stuff on your site and I just responded back with that video AFTER! I can present facts, but find it difficult to respond to hostile people. You are just jealous :)

It is not the Ten Count you are thinking of. The aces are not included in the count, they are side counted. This Ten Count is 2-9=+1 and 10-K=-2. With the ace side count for perfect insurance/blackjack frequency prediction and the 8/9 side count, I wouldn't call it horrible. I've won with this count for over 20 years. Have you won at blackjack card counting overall Teliot?

Quote: JSTAT

The Hi-Lo Count ignores the eight and nines which can be devastating to double downs on 10/11, if there is a shortage of them. The same goes for dealer busts. We win more often with more 8/9's left. Since you play double deck, insurance plays an important role. The accuracy of the Hi-Count for the insurance side bet is terrible since the aces are counted as high cards instead of low cards. Here is my take of the Hi-Lo Count https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLtT8fzQsTc

lol... I like seeing my comments on top of your video's comment section. Yeah, I guess I'll leave it to my comments to sum up your interpretation of hi/low and counting.


**My opinion is that the OP should completely disregard JSTAT.

I smell a new AP Heat blog entry coming from this one.

Quote: Romes

lol... I like seeing my comments on top of your video's comment section. Yeah, I guess I'll leave it to my comments to sum up your interpretation of hi/low and counting.


**My opinion is that the OP should completely disregard JSTAT.

You notice I didn't delete your comment on my YouTube page. It's because I respect others opinions without attacking them

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I smell a new AP Heat blog entry coming from this one.

No, I already busted JSTAT on my blog once, he's not going to get any more attention on my blog than that:

http://apheat.net/2013/01/13/baccarat-card-counting-flim-flam/

Quote: teliot

No, I already busted JSTAT on my blog once, he's not going to get any more attention on my blog than that:

http://apheat.net/2013/01/13/baccarat-card-counting-flim-flam/

Someone thinks player and banker are meaningfully countable *after* doing research into it? That was conclusively disproven decades ago.

Quote: teliot

No, I already busted JSTAT on my blog once, he's not going to get any more attention on my blog than that:

http://apheat.net/2013/01/13/baccarat-card-counting-flim-flam/

You stole my copyrighted material and published my name that is tagged all over the Internet, Teliot. Who is the criminal? Let's get back on point. The OP said he lost playing blackjack for 20 years using the Hi- Lo Count. That is disturbing and wonder how many others have lost using this count?