Three card poker strategy variations to reduce variance
March 13th, 2015 at 2:25:13 PM
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Hi, let's assume someone is only betting the ante and has a short stack/bankroll of 20 units(10 play bets).
Would this person's short term success rate be increased by modifying the known strategy of playing with Q-8-4 or better? What if he played only K-high or better? or even A-high or better?
He would certainly reduce the amount of money wagered on poor hands, potentially letting him last longer in order to be able to play later, potentially with a better hand. Is there some way of measuring this? I know it's unconventional to do a risk-of-ruin calculation on a negative EV game, but is there a way to see how many hands, on average, a player would be able to play without going broke using a more conservative strategy?
-sidenote- I am fascinated in this game, which I am yet to play live in a casino. Mostly, I am interested in times when the player plays with a weak hand. Instead of folding (-1), he enters into a proposition where the two most likely scenarios are to lose (-2), or only win half his wager (+1). A hand like Q-J-9 seems like a hand that I'd feel a bit queasy "raising" on.
Would this person's short term success rate be increased by modifying the known strategy of playing with Q-8-4 or better? What if he played only K-high or better? or even A-high or better?
He would certainly reduce the amount of money wagered on poor hands, potentially letting him last longer in order to be able to play later, potentially with a better hand. Is there some way of measuring this? I know it's unconventional to do a risk-of-ruin calculation on a negative EV game, but is there a way to see how many hands, on average, a player would be able to play without going broke using a more conservative strategy?
-sidenote- I am fascinated in this game, which I am yet to play live in a casino. Mostly, I am interested in times when the player plays with a weak hand. Instead of folding (-1), he enters into a proposition where the two most likely scenarios are to lose (-2), or only win half his wager (+1). A hand like Q-J-9 seems like a hand that I'd feel a bit queasy "raising" on.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
