Come Bets

When I play craps I play max odds on the pass line and after hitting my point I place come bets and play max odds there as well. Sometimes I have every point covered, but tonight a friend of mine told me he watched this video th about craps saying I should play no more than three points at a time. When I watched the video the instructed stated that "experts say you should play no more than three points at a time..." My question is: is there any mathmatical basis to this?

There is no mathematical basis to this. Each bet carries the same house edge.

If you cover all the numbers with come bets, you risk more to an early 7; you win more if numbers start repeating. There are things you could consider such as what per-centage of your bankroll is at risk and can you tolerate losing to a 7 when you have 4, 5 or 6 points covered and no repeaters. I suspect the "experts" are relating the number of bets you should make to your starting bankroll, possibly with some attempt to limit your risk of ruin.

With 3 points covered you have on average 12 ways to win and 6 ways to lose. There are also 12 ways to hit numbers that you are not on.

I sometimes use the following strategy. Make a passline bet with odds and then three come bets with odds. After one win, I continue to make come bets until the roll ends. I pause at 4 numbers covered until I get one win because that is my tolerance for $$ on the table with nothing in return. Assuming that numbers are being rolled and not a 7, then with three numbers covered, on average that 4th bet has an equal chance of A) repeating, or B) establishing a 4th point for me. There is also some probability that there will be a repeat with 1 or two numbers covered, so more often than not, by the time I get 4 numbers covered I've had at least one hit. I don't have my detailed calculations handy, but to me this makes establishing 4 numbers not that much more expensive than establishing 3.

This is a fairly aggressive strategy, and on a cold table I can plow through my bankroll quickly, but it doesn't take to many repeats for this to start making money. I like it better than making place bets because I don't have all of my bets out there if there is an early 7 out. If there is a nice long roll, I have only missed a few wins compared to getting place bets up right after the come out.

There have been a few other threads and blogs on this subject.

See the very informative blog and this thread I started a while ago.

Just to supplement with seattledice: You don't change your house edge or expected loss at all. I repeat, with an infinite bankroll come betting with max odds each roll is the best strategy hands down. What you change by holding back come bets is your variance. If you don't know that term it basically means: how much your bankroll will vary during a given session.

If you bet $5 PL and coming everytime with odds, you can very easily be up and down $500 within an hour. Very, very easily. In fact you can bust with a $1000 bankroll using that strategy pretty easily. On the other hand - one night I started with a $300 bankroll and ended at around $1000 with this strategy. What would have happened during this night if I had limited myself to 2 come bets? I would have ended up in the positive, but not nearly as much.

Quote: ahiromu

Just to supplement with seattledice: You don't change your house edge or expected loss at all. I repeat, with an infinite bankroll come betting with max odds each roll is the best strategy hands down. What you change by holding back come bets is your variance. If you don't know that term it basically means: how much your bankroll will vary during a given session.

this isnt true. youre gonna be making more wagers per hour if youre betting passline/comebets every roll. if you stop at 3 or 4 points, then theres less wagers youre making per hour, so your expected loss will be less.

you're just getting more action at once, in other words: gambling more

Quote: ahiromu

What you change by holding back come bets is your variance.
one night I started with a $300 bankroll and ended at around $1000 with this strategy. What would have happened during this night if I had limited myself to 2 come bets? I would have ended up in the positive, but not nearly as much.

Think of it from the casino's point of view: Who gets rated better for comps? The guy who constantly makes come bets will go thru his bankroll faster and will be rated by the casino as a valuable player. This will happen irrespective of the fact that on that particular night he happened to turn 300 into 1,000. Its his betting style that makes him so valuable. The casino knows that variance will work in their favor in the long run.