Buying Promo Chips for +EV
February 24th, 2015 at 3:45:57 AM
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My local casino runs promotions where they award Promotional Chips for gaming to the winner. These chips are $25 and $100 value and are issued anywhere from $500-$2000 per drawing. The larger the win the more of the $100 chips are provided and the winner must play the chips at the value they are issued. The promo chips only play on main bets (no bonus/side bets) and if they win they are paid with normal chips but the promo chip is removed. If they lose they are just lost. If they tie they can be played again.
Talking to the players who have won chips it seems they are looking to get a 50% return on their promo chips, if they win $1000 in promo chips and turn it into $500 in real chips they feel satisfied.
It seems to me that there should be a value to buying the promo chips from the winner at $0.50 per $1.00 and playing these chips on a single bet. I feel like I should be able to get value from buying $500 worth of chips for $250 and making a $500 single bet with a +EV since I will only be risking $250 in real money to return $500 on a win.
The Wizard posts that the probabilities of a single hand of BJ (initial) at
Win 42.43
Loss 49.09
Tie 8.48
If I buy $500 worth of promo chips for $250 and make a single $500 promo chip bet this gives me a 42% chance to win $500 and a 49% chance to lose $250 (not counting if I get blackjack I would win $750, I think ~4%), seems like an easy +EV but I feel like I am missing something.
Any thoughts and thank you.
Talking to the players who have won chips it seems they are looking to get a 50% return on their promo chips, if they win $1000 in promo chips and turn it into $500 in real chips they feel satisfied.
It seems to me that there should be a value to buying the promo chips from the winner at $0.50 per $1.00 and playing these chips on a single bet. I feel like I should be able to get value from buying $500 worth of chips for $250 and making a $500 single bet with a +EV since I will only be risking $250 in real money to return $500 on a win.
The Wizard posts that the probabilities of a single hand of BJ (initial) at
Win 42.43
Loss 49.09
Tie 8.48
If I buy $500 worth of promo chips for $250 and make a single $500 promo chip bet this gives me a 42% chance to win $500 and a 49% chance to lose $250 (not counting if I get blackjack I would win $750, I think ~4%), seems like an easy +EV but I feel like I am missing something.
Any thoughts and thank you.
February 24th, 2015 at 3:55:21 AM
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42% chance to win $500? Well, you already spent $250 buying the promo chips. So you're sitting at a 42% to win $250. And 49% chance to lose $250.
Something else to consider:
What if you get a hand like 8,8 vs Ten?
Basic strategy says to split, right? But look at it this way:
You're only risking $250 on that spot, right?
Does it make sense, if you have a $250 wager, get 88vT, to then split the second hand for $500? What about A8v6, 66v2, 10vs9, 10vsT?
The problem is you lose the promo chips when they win. That's not good. If the promo chips were to stay up (which they don't in this case), they are worth almost as much as their face value. Buying them for 50% off would be a huge advantage, but unfortunately, that's not the case.
Something else to consider:
What if you get a hand like 8,8 vs Ten?
Basic strategy says to split, right? But look at it this way:
You're only risking $250 on that spot, right?
Does it make sense, if you have a $250 wager, get 88vT, to then split the second hand for $500? What about A8v6, 66v2, 10vs9, 10vsT?
The problem is you lose the promo chips when they win. That's not good. If the promo chips were to stay up (which they don't in this case), they are worth almost as much as their face value. Buying them for 50% off would be a huge advantage, but unfortunately, that's not the case.
February 24th, 2015 at 5:00:09 AM
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Ah, you are right, my bad. I am 42% to win $250 not $500, see I knew I was missing something.
Now the question becomes where do I need to get the purchase price down to for it to be +EV. If I buy $500 for $240 or $230 or $220? (Wouldn't see it getting much lower then that even with some excellent negotiating).
You are right about basic strategy saying split, but I am sure there would be a completely different strategy that would have to be worked out because you wouldn't want to put up more $ unless the odds were +EV. So if it was +EV to double 11 vs 6 then you would add $ to the table. I would expect you would split much less often, maybe 8/8 vs 6 but only if it was +EV to make the split. It seems that normal blackjack basic strategy would not apply and a new optimal strategy given the parameters of the original bet would have to be worked out. This would also change the 42% vs 49% chances since they are based on basic strategy plays.
I guess the first step to figuring this out would be to work out a strategy based on maximizing the odds to win X on a Y bet on a single hand. I would think based on the casino, the table limits and the value of the promo chips available Y would be $500. X would have to be determined from a range of $220 - $250 because I don't think anyone would sell $500 in promo chips for less than $220 while 90% would sell $500 in promo chips for $250.
If an optimal strategy could be worked out for $220/$500 that would be the best chance to be +EV. If $220/$500 is +EV a similar strategy could be worked out for $230/$500 $240/$500 and $250/$500 to determine if any of them would also be +EV. However, if $220/$500 isn't +EV then obviously the others would not be either.
I would not know how to begin working out an optimal strategy for $220/$500 or how to know if that strategy would be +EV.
If you are betting $220 to win $280 I think there is a chance there is a strategy that would be +EV.
Now the question becomes where do I need to get the purchase price down to for it to be +EV. If I buy $500 for $240 or $230 or $220? (Wouldn't see it getting much lower then that even with some excellent negotiating).
You are right about basic strategy saying split, but I am sure there would be a completely different strategy that would have to be worked out because you wouldn't want to put up more $ unless the odds were +EV. So if it was +EV to double 11 vs 6 then you would add $ to the table. I would expect you would split much less often, maybe 8/8 vs 6 but only if it was +EV to make the split. It seems that normal blackjack basic strategy would not apply and a new optimal strategy given the parameters of the original bet would have to be worked out. This would also change the 42% vs 49% chances since they are based on basic strategy plays.
I guess the first step to figuring this out would be to work out a strategy based on maximizing the odds to win X on a Y bet on a single hand. I would think based on the casino, the table limits and the value of the promo chips available Y would be $500. X would have to be determined from a range of $220 - $250 because I don't think anyone would sell $500 in promo chips for less than $220 while 90% would sell $500 in promo chips for $250.
If an optimal strategy could be worked out for $220/$500 that would be the best chance to be +EV. If $220/$500 is +EV a similar strategy could be worked out for $230/$500 $240/$500 and $250/$500 to determine if any of them would also be +EV. However, if $220/$500 isn't +EV then obviously the others would not be either.
I would not know how to begin working out an optimal strategy for $220/$500 or how to know if that strategy would be +EV.
If you are betting $220 to win $280 I think there is a chance there is a strategy that would be +EV.
