focd
Joined: Sep 15, 2010
• Posts: 128
September 30th, 2010 at 5:55:02 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Odds against seven consecutive 7s are almost 280,000 to 1, if that makes you feel any better. Of course, once you switched, your chances of sevening out on the pass line were not affected. Perhaps it's a good thing that you lost the "dice". >:-)

Seriously, I wanted to pass the dice in the middle, but it maybe be perceived rude. It wasn't that I was losing money. When I see patterns I don't like, I just want to quit or pass the dice. It happened in California.
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
• Posts: 6763
January 19th, 2012 at 11:59:13 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

154 rolls is the documented record (source). My Ask the Wizard #81 gives the probability of making it to 200 rolls.

Has the "Ask the Wizard" archive been re-indexed? The link to ATW #81 is intact, but the content of the response is different. In this case, the description of the 200 roll probability is missing.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
TIMSPEED
Joined: Aug 11, 2010
• Posts: 1246
January 19th, 2012 at 12:59:10 PM permalink
I think it was in 09 or 10, but I rolled consecutively 104 rolls at Siena Casino in Reno, NV. (84 of which were box numbers, 20 horns)
Yes I was counting and had a backup counter aswell. (I counted the total rolls, he counted box numbers hit) I did this in just under 2½ hours (like 2:20 I think).
The table wasn't that full and no one made more than \$10k.
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
• Posts: 7895
January 19th, 2012 at 4:36:11 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Quote: Wizard

154 rolls is the documented record (source). My Ask the Wizard #81 gives the probability of making it to 200 rolls.

Has the "Ask the Wizard" archive been re-indexed? The link to ATW #81 is intact, but the content of the response is different. In this case, the description of the 200 roll probability is missing.

Craps introduction mentions the calculation as a in 5.6 billion. (precisely it is 1: 5,590,264,072) Do you want the answer or how to do the calculation? There is a link to the problem in MathProblems.

You can have my spreadsheet using Markov transition matrix if you like. It uses the matrix multiplication function in Excel.

Probability is 1 in 8.81 you will 7-out on 17th roll or higher.
Probability is 1 in 92 you will 7-out on 33rd roll or higher.
Probability is 1 in 10,686 you will 7-out on 65th roll or higher.

I am trying to calculate A^153 where A is a matrix, but Excel does not have that function. So I have to calculate A, A^2, A^4,A^32,A^64,A^128,A^(128+32), etc.
If you use a more sophisticated software (like MatLab or hundreds of other programs) you can calculate it directly. But everyone has EXCEL. You need to read up on matrix multiplication if you didn't learn it, or you forgot it.
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
• Posts: 6763
January 19th, 2012 at 6:51:16 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Quote: Ayecarumba

Quote: Wizard

154 rolls is the documented record (source). My Ask the Wizard #81 gives the probability of making it to 200 rolls.

Has the "Ask the Wizard" archive been re-indexed? The link to ATW #81 is intact, but the content of the response is different. In this case, the description of the 200 roll probability is missing.

Craps introduction mentions the calculation as a in 5.6 billion. (precisely it is 1: 5,590,264,072) Do you want the answer or how to do the calculation? There is a link to the problem in MathProblems.

You can have my spreadsheet using Markov transition matrix if you like. It uses the matrix multiplication function in Excel.

Probability is 1 in 8.81 you will 7-out on 17th roll or higher.
Probability is 1 in 92 you will 7-out on 33rd roll or higher.
Probability is 1 in 10,686 you will 7-out on 65th roll or higher.

I am trying to calculate A^153 where A is a matrix, but Excel does not have that function. So I have to calculate A, A^2, A^4,A^32,A^64,A^128,A^(128+32), etc.
If you use a more sophisticated software (like MatLab or hundreds of other programs) you can calculate it directly. But everyone has EXCEL. You need to read up on matrix multiplication if you didn't learn it, or you forgot it.

Thanks Paco. My original inquiry was the odds of rolling 117 times without throwing a seven (which is apparently the "Sharpshooter Roll-A-Thon" record at the Fremont). I'll check it out on Excel.

Edit: my search came up with the link to Ask the Wizard, but it does not display the craps question (if it is there). Could just be my browser.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
• Posts: 7895
January 20th, 2012 at 11:22:02 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Thanks Paco. My original inquiry was the odds of rolling 117 times without throwing a seven (which is apparently the "Sharpshooter Roll-A-Thon" record at the Fremont). I'll check it out on Excel.

The question of not getting a 7 is a very simple calculation. No matrices are required. You need a matrix multiplication or a equivalently a set of recursive formulas to do the harder problem where you are permitted to roll a 7 on "come-out" rolls.

Probability of rolling n time without getting a 7 is P=(36/30)^n
n=117 1:1,837,408,781
n=123 1:5,486,473,222

Probability of rolling a 7 out on roll 154 or higher 1:5,590,264,072
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
• Posts: 5328
January 20th, 2012 at 12:53:37 PM permalink
" The question of not getting a 7 is a very simple calculation." Not to the other 99% of us. No way !
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 2049
January 20th, 2012 at 2:11:00 PM permalink
Many years ago I vaguely remember seeing a hall of fame list at a casino once, but don't think it went over 2 hours. However with a table of small betters, presumably there would be more players - if there weren't I'm sure it would become full fairly soon - and hence the dealers would be paying out more bets, possibly resulting in less rolls per hour. Nevertheless 4 hours sounds a very long time!
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 21766
January 20th, 2012 at 3:59:35 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Has the "Ask the Wizard" archive been re-indexed? The link to ATW #81 is intact, but the content of the response is different. In this case, the description of the 200 roll probability is missing.

When the site was revamped in December not everything went perfectly. I'll try to find the missing question.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
riverbed
Joined: Jan 14, 2010