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Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
Joined: May 5, 2010
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May 31st, 2010 at 5:40:44 PM permalink
For a long time at Harrah's St Louis, they featured a promotion called Monster Roll. Each month, the person with the highest roll would win some sort of cash prize, along with the other top ten finishers. Then, at the end of the year, the top rollers from the months and possibly overall (not a heavy craps player here so don't remember) came back to do a "Finals" for 100,000 dollars I believe.

Anyway, it was not uncommon toward the end of the month to see the numbers be in the high 90s to low 100s. Not sure what the record was for that promotion, but 154 seems like a low number to me to be the world record.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
Nareed
Nareed
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
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May 31st, 2010 at 6:12:46 PM permalink
Quote: 7winner

I know at the Freemont Casino downtown they have an electronic display that the box keeps rolls of each shooters hand. Someone should keep track of records and have bonus payouts when someone breaks a record!



The Fremont runs a promo called the "Sharpshooter Roll-athon," for which they need to keep track of all shots made. See The Wizard's review for more info.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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June 1st, 2010 at 6:35:35 AM permalink
Quote: Tiltpoul


Anyway, it was not uncommon toward the end of the month to see the numbers be in the high 90s to low 100s. Not sure what the record was for that promotion, but 154 seems like a low number to me to be the world record.



That 154 roll was touted as a "world record" not yet challenged as inaccurate. Apparently the documentation is irrefutable.

The Wizard has written and stated that rolling the dice 75+ times w/o a 7 out is a 47,619 to 1 shot. That is where his calculations end. Doubling that number at 154 would be astronomical I guess.

Is that "high 90s to low 100s" any given month or consecutive months, and if so, how many months???

Thanks for the links, I am learning some stuff here and have some questions down the road.

tuttigym
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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June 1st, 2010 at 6:44:26 AM permalink
154 rolls is the documented record (source). My Ask the Wizard #81 gives the probability of making it to 200 rolls.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
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June 1st, 2010 at 11:36:24 AM permalink
Quote: 7winner

I know at the Freemont Casino downtown they have an electronic display that the box keeps rolls of each shooters hand. Someone should keep track of records and have bonus payouts when someone breaks a record!



ahh yes. i knew it was some casino downtown. i got the first letter right at least :p
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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June 1st, 2010 at 1:34:24 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

154 rolls is the documented record (source). My Ask the Wizard #81 gives the probability of making it to 200 rolls.



It's important to distinguish between a number of rolls without a seven and a number of rolls without a seven-out. It's simple to figure the probability of rolls without a seven; it's just .833333^ n, where n is a number of rolls. I once rolled 56 times without a seven, which has a probability of .0000368, or odds of 27,172 to 1 against. It's also relatively easy to calculate the probability of different numbers of passline decisions without a seven-out, since the probability of a seven-out on any decision is 784/1980, taken from "The Perfect 1980". So, the probability of 60 decisions without a seven-out is (1 - (784/1980) )^ 60 = 7.31 * 10^ -14, or odds of 13,678,568,090,000 to 1 against. Since the average number of rolls in a decision is 3.375, that would come out to roughly 200 rolls (202.5).

However, the Wizard's calculation using "states" is the correct method; it's just a lot more laborious.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
lennyjacky
lennyjacky
Joined: Sep 30, 2010
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September 30th, 2010 at 1:20:29 PM permalink
I have a similar memory but with exceptions. I recall those dice on a pink silk pillow under glass on top of a pillar about five feet high in the casino at the Desert Inn. They were, as I recall, rolled more than 70 times by some school teacher on vacation. Many people at that table that celebrated night won big but the roller went home with more glory than cash. And, yes, it was in the 1950s. Maybe we're both right or maybe memory going back that far isn't all it's cut out to be.

lennyjacky
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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September 30th, 2010 at 1:46:37 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Quote: Wizard

154 rolls is the documented record (source). My Ask the Wizard #81 gives the probability of making it to 200 rolls.



However, the Wizard's calculation using "states" is the correct method; it's just a lot more laborious.
Cheers,
Alan Shank



For those of you that really LOVE working out math problems, there is another formula that can be used that is different from the Wizard's but arrives at the same answers... and it is not recursive or a matrix.

From the article:
"Our aim here is to give an explicit closed-form expression for them, showing that the distribution of L is a linear combination (not a convex combination) of four geometric distributions"

see: http://arxiv.org/abs/0906.1545v2 (for the article)
S. N. Ethier, Fred M. Hoppe

To read the complete article and see the formulas:
you can download a PDF free from the site.
or:http://arxiv.org/pdf/0906.1545v2
(to download just the pdf)

I re-created The Wizard's 200 roll table in excel using their formula in less than 3 minutes.
focd
focd
Joined: Sep 15, 2010
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September 30th, 2010 at 3:50:42 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

3. Consecutive Come Out natural winners (7 & 11)?


I don't think this is a record, but I just "rolled" 7 consecutive 7's on a come out roll yesterday (card craps). This was ridiculous as I was betting on the don't pass side the whole time. So I lost 7 in a row. Then I got upset and moved it back to the pass side. Then I 7ed out later on. This is ridiculous.
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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September 30th, 2010 at 4:49:46 PM permalink
Quote: focd

I don't think this is a record, but I just "rolled" 7 consecutive 7's on a come out roll yesterday (card craps). This was ridiculous as I was betting on the don't pass side the whole time. So I lost 7 in a row. Then I got upset and moved it back to the pass side. Then I 7ed out later on. This is ridiculous.



Odds against seven consecutive 7s are almost 280,000 to 1, if that makes you feel any better. Of course, once you switched, your chances of sevening out on the pass line were not affected. Perhaps it's a good thing that you lost the "dice". >:-)

Where was this unfortunate series of events?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"

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