what is "the long run"
I think many don't understand what you posted. Those who do are more interested in the OT sub threads. [ed. as Mustang Sally noted, there appear to be issues with some of your N_0s]Quote: chrisrDouble Zero Roulette (single number bet) 0.053 35 442,756
Blackjack liberal rules 0.003 1 168,686
I'm surprised my assertions that keno is better than 10x craps
and roulette is better than a good game of blackjack went so unchallenged.
Quote: teliotI think many don't understand what you posted. Those who do are more interested in the OT sub threads.Quote: chrisrDouble Zero Roulette (single number bet) 0.053 35 442,756
Blackjack liberal rules 0.003 1 168,686
I'm surprised my assertions that keno is better than 10x craps
and roulette is better than a good game of blackjack went so unchallenged.
It's not that shocking. When you are playing a -EV game you are paying for variance. It makes sense to pay more for more variance.
Of course, you could play something like 9/7 TDB and get your variance for cheap...
Quote: FleaStiffThe long run begins where hopes, self-delusion, wishful thinking and selective memory become eroded by the combination of house edge and alcohol letting reality set in.
Lol...that's funny....Hunter Thompsonesk
How do you get 35 as the SD?Quote: chrisrDouble Zero Roulette (single number bet) 0.053 35 442,756
35 is the 1 unit payout.
I get (5.762617134 / (-1/19))^2 = 11988
added:
also you have
Double Zero Roulette (even bet) 0.053 1 725
I get a 92.2% chance of a net loss after 725 spins
should it be closer to 360 for 84%?
maybe my (SD/EV)^2 is different from yours
IMHO, I do not think anyone really cares though
I may be under or still outside
Sally
Quote: FleaStiffThe long run begins where hopes, self-delusion, wishful thinking and selective memory become eroded by the combination of house edge and alcohol letting reality set in.
Weird....I keep getting this vague image of someone named Don Johnson.....????
Quote: cwwbjrIs the "long run" the same for winners and losers?.......Ooooops!!! my bad...I forgot..they're are no winners in the " long run" which is an infinite unattainable non-absolute grey concept.
Weird....I keep getting this vague image of someone named Don Johnson.....????
Don Johnson was playing with an edge because casinos were dumb enough to give him one. Partial loss rebates can turn the game in your favor if played correctly. I don't think the amount he played would be considered very "long run" either. I dunno how many hands he actually played though. With the loss rebates, I assume he was trying for high variance, and not many hands played.
Quote: cwwbjrIs the "long run" the same for winners and losers?.......Ooooops!!! my bad...I forgot..they're are no winners in the " long run" which is an infinite unattainable non-absolute grey concept.
Weird....I keep getting this vague image of someone named Don Johnson.....????
Of course there are winners in the long run. People who play +EV games are winners in the long run.
People who play -EV games are losers in the long run. People who play -EV games with sub-optimal strategies like never hitting a 16 and not splitting 8s against a 10 or A are even bigger losers in the long run.
Quote: AxiomOfChoice
People who play -EV games are losers in the long run. People who play -EV games with sub-optimal strategies... are even bigger losers in the long run.
This reminds me of Rob Singer who plays -EV game (below 100% VP), doesn't follow optimal strategy, and still claims winning consistently.
Of course, he is trying to sell his system.
Hoax, time of discovery 1053 ESTQuote: cwwbjrIs the "long run" the same for winners and losers?.......Ooooops!!! my bad...I forgot..they're are no winners in the " long run" which is an infinite unattainable non-absolute grey concept.
Weird....I keep getting this vague image of someone named Don Johnson.....????
Quote: onenickelmiracleHoax, time of discovery 1053 EST
Hey, I'd like to point out my post at the top of page 5, 7 and a half hours earlier than that....
It wasn't officially a load then.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceHey, I'd like to point out my post at the top of page 5, 7 and a half hours earlier than that....
I thought it was strange.Quote: cwwbjrIs the "long run" the same for winners and losers?.......Ooooops!!! my bad...I forgot..they're are no winners in the " long run" which is an infinite unattainable non-absolute grey concept.
Weird....
So what do you think is the long run?
Others have voiced their opinion(s)
Here is mine
Make one lifetime bet.
IMO, you are not in the long run
Now, make two bets or more, now you are in the long run
Oh, the yelling, spitting and name-calling keeps going on all over the world
as opinions fly high and far
Sally
another bottom line
does it matter?
I probably need to change my play and start giving it all back to match the math. HaHa!!
. My simple question (if you bothered to read it) was originally directed to Michael The Wizard on his other site " The Wizard of Odds" FAQ and HE asked me to post it HERE. As far as the details I provided him ie ,length of time played, conditions and money won etc. was given for the purpose of informing him so that he could provide me with HIS most accurate answer focusing on the RESULTS of my play and NOT my METHOD of play. You're the one who commented on that, right?
Rest assured I HAVE NOTHING FOR SALE ! ! ! Except for a 2005 Yamaha 125 dirt bike that was my grandson's for $ 1250 but it has carburetor problems.
You're reading waaay waaay too much into this. It's just a simple question and I really never even intended for anybody else to see it but Michael for this very reason all this controversy. I may have been set up. I don't know why he couldn't have just answered it over there in FAQ. I can't help it if I won..... or can I ? (sorry just kidding.. I couldn't resist ) but since its been blown all out of proportion we might as well have some fun with it!!
Oh and by the way, I just accidentally won another $300 today but don't know if it was + or - EV, but I do know it was cash though .HaHa!!
Sorry if you got the wrong impression. That was not my intention but I had to respond to these inaccurate assumptions.
Quote: mustangsallyHow do you get 35
i made that table somewhat hastily i guess.
the roulette numbers must have shifted a column in my spreadsheet. The SD for single number should be 5.69...
Quote: cwwbjrWizard,
Thank you for your answer!
Would that then not create a conflict between making an absolute conclusive statement based on a non- absolute premise .
For example, say, conclusive statements like "Everyone always loses in the "long run", or, " All betting strategies are equally worthless" when referring to a non-absolute , shade of grey term "long run".
The reason I ask is because I'm wondering why some players get banned from playing blackjack because of suspicion of card counting , for example, which includes a " Betting Strategy " which results in them being banned , and were they allowed to continue playing would they eventually win or lose in the ambiguous "long run"?
What do you think?
It is true, you cannot ENTER the long run (at least, I don't think so...but that could be a different topic altogether). But that doesn't mean that everything in the non-long-run is just "random". The more trials (hands in BJ, spins in roulette, throws in craps, pulls in slots, etc.) that are played, the closer you get to the long run. The closer you get to the long run, the closer your results will be to the expectation.
Instead of looking at it as "how long until I reach the long run", I think it should be looked at in a different way. After X amount of trials, where are my results likely to land? Well, 68% of the time you'll land between -1 standard deviation and +1 standard deviation. 95% of the time I'll land between -2 and +2 standard deviations. Or, in other words, 32% of the time I will be outside of +/- 1 standard deviation and 5% of the time I'll be outside of +/- 2 standard deviations.
First off, I'm going to exclude card-counting from being a betting strategy, since it works very differently from betting strategies. In BJ, some cards are good and some are bad for the player. Every time a card is removed from the shoe, it changes the EV (or house edge). If lots of Aces remain, it is favorable to the player, because Aces are "good" cards for the player [more BJs, more soft hands that can be hit multiple times, etc.). When counting, you played little amounts of $ in negative EV situations (house edge) and bet a lot in positive EV situations (player edge). Overall, the player has the edge, because his edge in +EV situations outweighs the house edge in -EV situations. Thus, on average, his bet is +EV.
The closer the card-counter gets to the long run (more trials, or bets he places) the closer his results are going to be to his expectation (EV).
On the other hand, betting strategies are a bit different. They typically alter bets based on previous wins or losses, or "streaks" (roulette has many BLACKS in a row, or bacarrat has many BANKER wins in a row). Previous wins/losses or streaks have no effect on future results in these games. Thus, every bet made in these games is -EV, as it is not possible to have a +EV situation in these games (and others). [Unless you use "information", like in bacarrat, some cards benefit the player and some benefit the banker, and others for the TIE bet. But without counting, it's -EV.]
My monitor doe not align your figures. Here is a readable version for those in my predicament.Quote: chrisrSo n0 is a good index for "bang for your buck" if you must gamble..
The best casino games to play.
| Game | EV (-) | SD | N0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Craps 100x | 0.014 | 101 | 51,049,505 |
| Jacks or Better (Full pay, 100 draw) | 0.005 | 15 | 10,122,277 |
| Jacks or Better (Full Pay) | 0.005 | 4 | 923,270 |
| Keno pick 10 | 0.396 | 332 | 703,406 |
| Craps 10x | 0.014 | 11 | 587,669 |
| Double Zero Roulette (single number) | 0.053 | 35 | 442,756 |
| Blackjack liberal rules | 0.003 | 1 | 168,686 |
| Craps 3-4-5 | 0.014 | 5 | 121,509 |
| Slot machine (estimate) | 0.050 | 9 | 32,400 |
| Let it Ride | 0.035 | 5 | 21,695 |
| Let it Ride $1 bonus bet | 0.230 | 32 | 19,357 |
| Blackjack standard rules | 0.010 | 1 | 13,225 |
| Baccarat banker | 0.011 | 1 | 7,698 |
| Baccarat player | 0.012 | 1 | 5,870 |
| Blackjack 6:5 | 0.025 | 1 | 2,116 |
| Casino War (tie) | 0.187 | 8 | 1,990 |
| Casino War | 0.029 | 1 | 1,329 |
| Double Zero Roulette (even bet) | 0.053 | 1 | 725 |
| Baccarat tie | 0.144 | 3 | 338 |
| Keno pick 1 | 0.250 | 1 | 27 |
But I guess the SD figures are incorrect? Please let me know.
What about European roulette? Caribbean Stud (and Oasis)? European Baccarat Banker? Other VideoPoker models?
What is OT?Quote: teliotI think many don't understand what you posted. Those who do are more interested in the OT sub threads.
Great work!Quote: kubikulannMy monitor doe not align your figures. Here is a readable version for those in my predicament.
Could you repost the table with two decimal digits of accuracy showing for the SD and an additional digit for the EV, with the EV's expressed as percents? That way everything has two decimal digit accuracy, allowing your computations to be easily confirmed.
OT = off topic.
This is chrisR's data, I just formatted it in a table.Quote: teliotGreat work!
Could you repost the table with two decimal digits of accuracy showing for the SD and an additional digit for the EV, with the EV's expressed as percents? That way everything has two decimal digit accuracy, allowing your computations to be easily confirmed.
OT = off topic.
But for example, in 2-Zero roulette (even bet), I find EV=-0.052632, SD= 0.998614 and N0=360 . So there might be trouble.
Chris?
Quote: rainmanYou have entered the long run when you can no longer sustain the loses, or you can live from the profits.
There it is......the long run.
The wizard cant sit around all day and answer everyone that poses questions like this. He would be here all day. This subject has been discussed many times.Quote: cwwbjrIs the "long run" the same for winners and losers?.......Ooooops!!! my bad...I forgot..they're are no winners in the " long run" which is an infinite unattainable non-absolute grey concept.
Weird....I keep getting this vague image of someone named Don Johnson.....????
I think its been explained to you. What you are experiencing with your winning streak is Variance/Luck. Nothing more nothing less. It may or may not continue.
The "long run" changes for each different game you play. The better or worst the theoretical percentage is will play a big part in how quickly you will see some results the. For instance if you have a 10% edge in blackjack and you are flat betting, you should see a profit fairly quickly. It will also depend on where the edge is coming from. You could have a 10% edge on Mega Bucks slots all tied up on the top jackpot. Chances are you will never ever see your 10% even with a significant amount of play. In this case the longer you play the more likely you are to lose. If you only play for an hr, there is a chance you will win or lose more then 10%.
So then, please, because IMO there are so many errors in it to render it meaningless, edit it.Quote: chrisri made that table somewhat hastily i guess.
the roulette numbers must have shifted a column in my spreadsheet. The SD for single number should be 5.69...
And your comment about the very skewed payouts for some bets.
"The pay-table on some of these games are pretty skewed.. so the normal approximation won't be totally accurate (i.e n0 won't be 84% chance) .. but n0 is still a good index i think."
So making a Keno game with a SD of 330 #1 is then so useless you must agree
where is your simulation data showing what the distribution looks like to validate Keno sitting in #1?
I am certain that member teliot could whip up a convolution program to calculate the distribution.
instead of doing these type of "oh, fits all, maybe, I think"
That goes over well in college math text books
Thanks for all your opinions
that is what this forum is really all about
one opinion after another
my keno view of 64,000 (pick 11) with an SD of about 33.75 (10 times less than your Keno pick 10, but you already know that)
and house edge of 13.25% would = 64,880 games
Let us see how close this looks to a normal distribution
This may be helpful in forming an opinion
IMO, why should even one person pay attention to your data that you posted here?
I have an answer.
To learn that everything you see and read may not be a truth or even an accurate representation of something.
So verify to be a bit more confident in what you may have learned.
I did
Some want to learn, not all care about how accurate the things they do learn, IMO
Thank you for the learning experience
Sally
Quote: AxelWolfI think its been explained to you. What you are experiencing with your winning streak is Variance/Luck. Nothing more nothing less. It may or may not continue.
Axel, if you believe that this guy's results are really what he says they are, I have a winning baccarat system to sell you.
He is trolling, pure and simple.
Quote: cwwbjrMy knowledge is not for sale, Who's fishing now?
You've already told us the secret. Never hit 16 and don't split 8s. If this gets out the casinos are doomed!
Are you going to play the bumblebee card soon? The suspense is killing us.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI have a winning baccarat system to sell you.
I beg for it.
Don't have money to pay it upfront, but I can pay after I've won using the system.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou've already told us the secret. Never hit 16 and don't split 8s. If this gets out the casinos are doomed!
Are you going to play the bumblebee card soon? The suspense is killing us.
Thank you for that laugh that's awesome funny ...and just as I suspected, Nice Try! !You're Definitely Fishing but using the wrong bait' Haha! the only thing that would be doomed would be my feeding grounds. haha!
Again , read the question and answer it if you can, if not don't muddy up the water, you might scare the fish !!Haha !!
Quote: cwwbjrThank you for that laugh that's awesome funny ...and just as I suspected, Nice Try! !You're Definitely Fishing but using the wrong bait' Haha! the only thing that would be doomed would be my feeding grounds. haha!
Again , read the question and answer it if you can, if not don't muddy up the water, you might scare the fish !!Haha !!
Oh, sorry, I forgot to answer the bumblebee card question, only if it is WILD! Haha!
Yes, definitely trolling. Moderators?Quote: cwwbjrOh, sorry, I forgot to answer the bumblebee card question, only if it is WILD! Haha!
Too bad too, because the N_0 discussion is actually a good one to address this common question with substance rather than the usual folly.
Quote: teliotYes, definitely trolling. Moderators?
Yeah, looks like Gamblor is back.
Quote:Too bad too, because the N_0 discussion is actually a good one to address this common question with substance rather than the usual folly.
There was a different thread where the Wizard proposed a measure that was something like "edge over tandard deviation" -- which is essentially the same thing.
There is an interesting question I have never seen answered which is to find the "basic strategy" in blackjack that maximizes N_0 rather than EV. I wanted to know this strategy back when i was bonus hustling online casinos about 12 years back m/l.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThere was a different thread where the Wizard proposed a measure that was something like "edge over tandard deviation" -- which is essentially the same thing.
Quote: teliotAnother way of viewing this is that 5% of the players are still beating the house by pure luck after this number of hands.
Not exactly. For a zero house edge, the Banker bet should have a commission of 2.69317%. I think your statement would have been true at 2.5%.
Quote: cwwbjrMy knowledge is not for sale, Who's fishing now?
I'm not near the mathematician that some on this site are but I think that if you take a sample space of 1 million non counting BJ pkayers that have played for about the same stakes and length of time as you, that a small percentage of them will be net winners. Then they get to come on WoV and brag about beating the math.
Quote: cwwbjrHi Michael,
Your math skills are amazing . I'm not good at math.
I've played blackjack 67 times in the last 2 years at $5, $10, and $25 tables averaging 5 hours per trip broken into 2 to 3 sessions / trip at 2 deck, 6 deck, and CSM's at 3/2 and 6/5 tables. I follow your recommended basic strategy for H,S, Sp, DD with the exception I don't ever hit 16 nor split 88 against dealer A or 10.
I've made a profit of $1850 during this time and made $10,000 profit in the previous 10 years.
I keep records of all my wins and losses.
Life is short.
What is considered the "the Long run" when commenting that blackjack cannot be beaten in the " long run"?
Best Regards!
For every one success story like yours there are thousands of non succes stories.
Quote: mickeycrimmI'm not near the mathematician that some on this site are but I think that if you take a sample space of 1 million non counting BJ pkayers that have played for about the same stakes and length of time as you, that a small percentage of them will be net winners. Then they get to come on WoV and brag about beating the math.
Wasn't a brag.. Don't take that statement out of context. It was merely a response to a false implication and a sarcastic challenge of the validity of my play. No more no less. There are those who are easily intimidated by things they can't understand and will resort to sarcastic criticism to help themselves cope with their ignorance. If my play beat his math, so what ... I could care less ... My message to him was.." I don't play by his math so don't challenge my play and I won't challenge your math......!! Fair enough? Hope that clears things up for you!
Nope you came in playing dumb then when challenged, revealed your true level of sophistication and your actual agenda and motivation.Quote: cwwbjrWasn't a brag.. Don't take that statement out of context. It was merely a response to a false implication and a sarcastic challenge of the validity of my play. No more no less. There are those who are easily intimidated by things they can't understand and will resort to sarcastic criticism to help themselves cope with their ignorance. If my play beat his math, so what ... I could care less ... My message to him was.." I don't play by his math so don't challenge my play and I won't challenge your math......!! Fair enough? Hope that clears things up for you!
Here is a table that shows the number of hands required for the casino to show a profit for various probabilities.
| Game | Bet | Edge | Std dev | 0.9 | 0.95 | 0.975 | 0.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baccarat | Banker | 1.06% | 0.93 | 12621 | 20791 | 29520 | 41588 |
| Baccarat | Player | 1.24% | 0.95 | 9741 | 16046 | 22783 | 32097 |
| Baccarat | Tie | 14.36% | 2.64 | 555 | 915 | 1299 | 1830 |
| Blackjack | Strip rules | 0.28% | 1.15 | 277046 | 456388 | 648001 | 912912 |
| Casino War | 2.88% | 2.24 | 9935 | 16367 | 23238 | 32739 | |
| Craps | Pass | 1.41% | 1 | 8259 | 13606 | 19318 | 27216 |
| Craps | Don't Pass | 1.36% | 0.99 | 8631 | 14219 | 20188 | 28442 |
| Pai gow | 1.5% | 0.75 | 4106 | 6764 | 9604 | 13530 | |
| Pai gow poker | 1.46% | 0.75 | 4334 | 7140 | 10137 | 14281 | |
| Three Card Poker | Ante | 3.37% | 1.64 | 3890 | 6407 | 9098 | 12817 |
| Three Card Poker | Pairplus | 7.28% | 2.85 | 2517 | 4146 | 5887 | 8294 |
| Jacks or Better | 9/6 | 0.46% | 4.42 | 1540713 | 2538073 | 354151 | 5076903 |
| Jacks or Better | 9/5 | 3.54% | 4.42 | 142034 | 243072 | 350929 | 500032 |
| Jacks or Better | 8/5 | 2.7% | 4.4 | 48094 | 84383 | 123102 | 176586 |
| Jacks or Better | 7/5 | 3.85% | 4.38 | 25100 | 43688 | 64109 | 92533 |
| Jacks or Better | 6/5 | 5% | 4.36 | 13754 | 26569 | 39923 | 58235 |
This is based on the Normal Distribution in all cases except for Jacks or Better. That approximation becomes untrustworthy if the number of expected events of any one outcome is five or less. So, for video poker, I used the Poisson distribution for the royals and the Normal approximation otherwise.
"Strip Rules" are: 6 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed, surrender allowed, re-splitting aces allowed.
Quote: Wizard"Strip Rules" are: 6 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed, surrender allowed, re-splitting aces allowed.
I think we should just start calling these "MLife rules," since those are the only places left on the strip you can find them (excepting the CP high limit room).
Quote: onenickelmiracleNope you came in playing dumb then when challenged, revealed your true level of sophistication and your actual agenda and motivation.
Interesting....Would you prefer that I had come in pretending to be a know it all so you could then call me a liar and a bragger. I didn't ask to be judged. Your imagination is working overtime. Also, could you please elaborate on agenda and motivation, since you know me so well.
I asked , Mike The Wizard, who directed me here, what I thought was a simple question in the context of my personal play comparative to the norm.( which I had hopeful expectations of exceptional results compared to the norm) It seems to be the case at this point! And yes that makes me happy.. Real Happy!
The details of my play were presented to accurately support the context of my question, not the subject of my question. You know More detailed question,..more detailed answer, you agree so far?
Ok! So then I get a few different answers from a few different people which completes the process...... I ask a question,.. I get answers .... End of story Right?
Wrong ! Here comes the confrontational, judgmental sarcasm, false assumptions, criticisms, wrong impressions. What's up with all of that?
If I want anyone"s opinion on my play I'll ask for it... my play is not the issue here...Why would anyone try to make it such. It's not up for discussion here. If you would care to provide your interpretation of " the Long Run" in the context of the circumstances which I presented , please do. If not, then that's fine too. Let's move on. Hey, I not mad at you!
I would appreciate however if you would please leave my play out of it for it is not the subject of my question . I really don't care about opinions regarding that.
Never argue with a fool, for an observer may not tell the difference.
Why don't we do this....Lets just start all over and we'll just say "Hypothetically"......
Quote: AcesAndEightsI think we should just start calling these "MLife rules," since those are the only places left on the strip you can find them (excepting the CP high limit room).
They don't even exist at M-Life casinos.
6 decks games there don't allow re-splitting of aces (they do allow surrender though)
The double deck games have the same rules, except, no surrender. This results in a lower edge than the 6-deck, although I consider both to be very good games.
There is no "the long run". It's a misnomer for people who do not know what EV is
Wonderful, but if you do that, how will BBB ever meet her suspension quota?Quote: WizardI'm going to spin this into an Ask the Wizard question somehow.
