Pai Gow Insurance Dealer's Envy Bonus
For the record, from now on, if I post something that is not true, I actually am sorry about it, and I do apologize.
That's the great thing about apologizing, it's free and it makes people feel good. I know I'm not perfect, for some reason others (I'm generalizing FG) have a hard time apologizing. I don't quite understand it. I apologize all the time, it's a great strategy. You're not allowed to be mad at someone who apologizes.
Quote: erblumeI'm not a troll. I thought I had a legitimate question. If I could do the math myself I would have. At this point I'm sorry I ever started this thread.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceDon't be sorry. You got your answer. Obviously Dan has different goals from yours. He is not trolling either; his world view is just different. It's just really, really funny that he thinks that you would tell him where this was.
Yes, my view is different. If you post, then:
1. If you're an AP, you don't post about player-advantaged situations, just out of seeking and protecting personal gain from such a game's offerings. Exposing the Golden Goose kills the Golden Goose is the philosophy and point-of-view on that. But I, and many others, don't subscribe to crooked or gaffed casino play where any fault or a flaw is acceptable on a production casino product. No one would like it if the casino had a "kill" or cooler switch that could be turned on against the players, for that matter either, when the shoe is on the other foot. What's good for the goose is good for the gander. So, exposing a malfunctioning game for its repair or removal is the philosophy or point of view here. There are two sides to this coin: one says "a malfunctioning game that works in MY favor is awesome." The other is: "a malfunctioning game that gives any side an unfair advantage - casino OR player - is wrong, and has to get fixed or removed."
2. If you're not an AP, but just a legitimate gaming-oriented poster, you substantiate your claims ("Jimmy's Casino or Card room in Anytown, WA," etc.), especially if the claims are dubious, and it's okay to do, since the game is on public view and offering at some open-to-the-public joint.
3. I never cursed or made any sort of personal attack on E.R. Blume; I simply said the math is wrong, stated why this might be important for some people such as a card room, that this game offering probably doesn't exist IRL, and that some veracity that it exists (since it's mentioned) might be in order for veracity's sake.
4. I also had a very polite PM dialogue with Blume - graciously initiated by him, - explaining that discussions of faults on proprietary products of companies might be examined, and what the process is for a casino or card room when they wish to change or modify a production game, that is, when working with a game manufacturer on it. NO card room or casino should ever change or add features to an approved game from a manufacturer without working with BOTH the Gaming Approval body (such as WSGC) and the manufacturer. A few do, however.
Quote: AoCAre the bonuses multiplied if you make a bigger bet, or are they constant? In other words, if you bet $10 instead of $5, do you get doubled bonuses for the dealer hand?
On Envy type features, no. Once you hit the $5 starting point, any higher bonus/Insurance bet does not increase the Envy payout. To maximize AP return on an Envy type mechanism, you play the minimum Envy amount, to activate the Envy pay table; no higher bet increases the flat-dollar pay table.
Quote: AocIf not, it's really not worth much. I mean, if you're going to play anyway, you may as well bet it (at the minimum), but you are obviously not going to make any real money with 25c of EV per hand. (which also makes Dan's "this here's an ATM" comment hilarious -- not all of us are looking to make $5 per hour, you know...)
Well, unlike card counting:
1. every hand would be AP positive.
2. at $10 action at a constant 3%, at 35 hands an hour, that's getting paid $10 a hour. Not much, true, but it's risk-free in comparison to running down BJ games. This still constitutes both a (possibly inadvertent) AP play and a breach of a casino's game integrity, and so it's worth mentioning. In terms of being an ATM, look at it from the card room point of view, as I do: a total loss. Six players will make on average $60 a hour, times the hours of operation. A casino or card room really needs their tables to MAKE money, not LOSE money, and that's the point here.
Well done both of you, especially erblume as a new member, to clarify intent and clean up misunderstandings in PM. PGD, very glad to hear it was not your intent to jump all over him personally, because it read differently than you meant it, to say the least. Your discussion above is most informative and welcome, thanks.
Quote: beachbumbabsPGD and erblume,
Well done both of you, especially erblume as a new member, to clarify intent and clean up misunderstandings in PM.
Of course. I was only seeking the intention of his post, and some backup info.
Quote: bbbPGD, very glad to hear it was not your intent to jump all over him personally, because it read differently than you meant it, to say the least.
I'm very sorry if it came off like that, as I thought I was extremely clear in only asking him for some corroborating info, and why I felt it was important. I am strict on the difference between questioning a gaming scenario's veracity, (which makes a poster's claim seem troll-ish if lacking in plausibility, and I said so), and outright personal name-calling, which no such thing happened.
I believe this game feature doesn't exist in any casino or card room on our Pai Gow poker product as stated, as it was mathematically wrong, as well as a game modification that never came across our desks or is known to anyone at my company, as far as I know. No one else here ever came across it or something like it, as far as the thread's posts state, and I doubted it exists on a game. So I said, "now that you mention it - where is this offered?" No answer yet.
Do I think it is an interesting idea? A little. Do I think it would work? Probably not, because the dealer's hand would have to be so low for Insurance Envy to work that the player's hand would be an odds-on winner anyway, so player's don't "envy" a dealer getting a crap hand, as much as they already win the hand they won. It would be redundant, and just slow down and confuse dealers even more, and reduce table hold. If some card room manager tries a new game gimmick, he should work with the supplier and gaming. Years ago (2009) I offered a bet that wins on a dealer's Pai Gow hand in EZ Pai Gow (Queen's Dragon bet), and it's the least popular of the game's bonus bets by far; and other manufacturers have disclosed features where you can select your insurance bet to win on a dealer's Pai Gow hand.
Quote: Paigowdan
Do I think it is an interesting idea? A little. Do I think it would work? Probably not, because the dealer's hand would have to be so low for Insurance Envy to work that the player's hand would be an odds-on winner anyway, so player's don't "envy" a dealer getting a crap hand, as much as they already win the hand they won.
This. If anything, you lower the envies for quads or higher, and let them apply to the dealer hand.
What I get out of all this is: DON'T POST ABOUT GOOD THINGS ON THE FORUM FOR GUYS LIKE DAN TO READ. If you don't know how to best exploit something or need help with the math. PM Someone (An AP is your best bet) and ask them for help. Ask them to keep it quiet for now before you tell the whole world including the resident casino consultants.
Make a deal with who ever you tell, if you must. If you are not sure who to trust or who best to ask? PM ME. I may not be great at the math on a particular game, but I know the right people and who best to ask. I will be glad to point you in the right direction. Depending on the situation, I would even make a nice deal with you that would benefit both of us. I keep my mouth shut and honor any deals I make. I can often figure the best way to exploit a situation. If we cant come up with a deal or im not interested. I just move on and keep my mouth shut.
No matter what the case, DON'T GIVE OUT FREE INFORMATION to the casinos employees or the Dark side casino consultants.
Quote: DeucekiesThis. If anything, you lower the envies for quads or higher, and let them apply to the dealer hand.
Very True. Since you're only envying the dealer's hand (one hand), and not the entire table, you can start much lower, and actually have a decent hit rate, about 1 in 38 hands.
And since this has been publicly disclosed anyway, here's proposed pay table (4.89%?):
9-high: 100:1 player's hand, $100 for the player (as envy) on dealer's 9-high.
10-high: 25:1 player's hand, $25 for the player (as envy) on the dealer's 10-high.
J-high: 15:1 player's hand, $10 envy for the player as envy on the dealer's J-high.
Q-high: 6:1 player's hand, $5 envy for the player as envy on the dealer's Q-high
K-high: 5:1 player's hand, no envy on dealer getting it.
A-high: 3:1 player's hand, no envy on dealer getting it.
With exactly the same existing pay table (7:1 on player's Q-high), house edge drops to 3.12%. Bit low, no biggie.
Again, I may be wrong, but something like this.
Next thing you know, there'll be envy on the positive-side bonus bet to include the dealer's hand.
Quote: AxelWolfI'm not 100% sure what this is all about, I just skimmed it. From what I understand, and correct e if I'm wrong. A player may have found a table game where the casino had made a mistake in procedure or added something extra to a game. The player was unsure of the value of this. If this change/promotion/rule was true and Dan didn't seem to think so. It would be good. Somehow this caused a disagreement/augment/morality lesson starring DAN and others (WHATS NEW?) .
Ahh....the Limelight at the forum.
And me, seeking Truth, Justice, and The American Way for all the good card rooms, casinos and gambling hall operators. Bless their hearts! - for making it all possible for us to gamble in the first place.
Quote: AxelWolfWhat I get out of all this is: DON'T POST ABOUT GOOD THINGS ON THE FORUM FOR GUYS LIKE DAN TO READ.
Well, yeah. If You let the cat out of the bag, freaking meow. What am I supposed to say to this? I know...Thank you.
Quote: AxelWofIf you don't know how to best exploit something or need help with the math. PM Someone (An AP is your best bet) and ask them for help. Ask them to keep it quiet for now before you tell the whole world including the resident casino consultants.
Make a deal with who ever you tell, if you must. If you are not sure who to trust or who best to ask? PM ME. I may not be great at the math on a particular game, but I know the right people and who best to ask. I will be glad to point you in the right direction. Depending on the situation, I would even make a nice deal with you that would benefit both of us. I keep my mouth shut and honor any deals I make. I can often figure the best way to exploit a situation. If we cant come up with a deal or im not interested. I just move on and keep my mouth shut.
No matter what the case, DON'T GIVE OUT FREE INFORMATION to the casinos employees or the Dark side casino consultants.
I'm not going to take this position, that "it's a WAR out there - white hats, dark hats, pill-box hats." This is a forum where we discuss things. If someone wants to impose or demand censorship....
Yes it is a place to discuss things. People can say what they want. I cant stop it (trust me I have tried from the begging of Skip's page. That site has Single-handedly cost well informed AP's and players millions. Everything from Lurking casino personnel, educating new AP's to creating dark side monsters.Quote: Paigowdan
This is a forum where we discuss things. If someone wants to impose or demand censorship....
I'm not trying to demand anything. I'm trying to help the AP community including anyone who wants to gamble with an advantage or just gamble smart. It does not have to be an AP who benefits. People often come here to learn how to gamble smarter.
IMO and many others, it's not smart to publicize flaws or good plays openly. Casinos shut it down quickly with lurking casino management or the help of Darksider's who gather information from here and other forums. I have a feeling New people don't understand this, they really just want the information at all costs. Some people just give out the information to feel important or smart, they really don't care about AP gambling. Often times that's because they don't realize just how doable and profitable it is.
I want to educate people that there may be a way to preserve something(a good play), still get the information they need to play it successfully and or make money on it, even if they don't necessarily have the funds or knowledge to do so.
Some unusual play that's 4% or 5% might be enough to really jump start an AP career, but if plays gets killed before they get a chance to play it, then it makes for a bad move. Once again im not demanding people don't talk. I'm suggesting a different way to get information without killing plays along the way.
Without this type of free information passed around Darksiders would be 10 steps further back then they are now. Sure they like to think not, But I know the truth.
I wonder how you and others would feel if someone in the industry decided to do your jobs (possibly better) for free?
Quote: AxelWolfYes it is a place to discuss things. People can say what they want. I cant stop it (trust me I have tried from the begging of Skip's page. That site has Single-handedly cost well informed AP's and players millions. Everything from Lurking casino personnel, educating new AP's to creating dark side monsters.
While it may have cost AP millions, it saved card rooms and gambling halls those same millions, where it paid for a lot of bona fide salaried jobs, and allows the industry that makes it all possible in the first place. I'm saying there are two sides here.
Quote: AxelWolfI'm not trying to demand anything. I'm trying to help the AP community including anyone who wants to gamble with an advantage or just gamble smart. It does not have to be an AP who benefits. People often come here to learn how to gamble smarter.
AP isn't gambling or gambling smarter per se. Many people outside the AP brotherhood don't view it as being an educated consumer, though I can see how within an AP brotherhood it is the goal.
Quote: AxelWolfIMO and many others, it's not smart to publicize flaws or good plays openly. Casinos shut it down quickly with lurking casino management or the help of Darksider's who gather information from here and other forums. I have a feeling New people don't understand this, they really just want the information at all costs. Some people just give out the information to feel important or smart, they really don't care about AP gambling. Often times that's because they don't realize just how doable and profitable it is.
I think the OP was not an AP, but either a naïve and newbie gaming guy, or a red herring; I am suspicious he wasn't 100% on the up-and-up. And asking an OP to provide something more concrete or to substantiate a position isn't flaming him, it's just asking for an explanation, or for some credible details - routinely done here. Before I had shown a player's edge to the game feature he discussed, all people here initially thought it was just a new sucker bet by some evil card room, and "bad bets" should be expose for what they are when they are against the player; everyone here agrees to that. But for that matter, a "dumping" game feature or misguided promotion can also be exposed as improper, and in the same spirit, when doing so without any "white hat/Dark hat" alignment or politics. Really, a good deep-cover AP play ain't going to be broadcasted here. For what it's worth, I didn't discuss this at work, because I didn't think it rose above the radar level of importance, it was just a wrong pay table, on a twist to an old-hat feature of side bet Envy. If it works, then everyone will have it anyway, and the first one to develop it bites the nut of development costs and ice-breaking on it with no leg up. Sort of like a food taster for an assassination target. While I slightly question the intention of the OP with this, maybe it was: "here's some food for thought and discussion for you guys," and on that basis it worked for us on its own terms very well.
Quote: AxelWolfI want to educate people that there may be a way to preserve something(a good play), still get the information they need to play it successfully and or make money on it, even if they don't necessarily have the funds or knowledge to do so.
As a game designer, the way to preserve something, the way to own something, is to get it out there to the world and into use. If something is on the up-and-up, it can withstand, and is helped, by the sunlight of discussion. If it needs to be concealed, there's something clandestine and deceitful about it. Proprietary games get public releases, otherwise what good are they? If sunlight kills it, it was nothing more than a gaff to begin with. Interesting point: if it has to live undercover and in the dark, then it is of the dark side. If the sunlight of discussion kills it, it was of the dark side.
Quote: AxelWolfSome unusual play that's 4% or 5% might be enough to really jump start an AP career, but if plays gets killed before they get a chance to play it, then it makes for a bad move. Once again im not demanding people don't talk. I'm suggesting a different way to get information without killing plays along the way.
All AP plays will eventually die, simply because the "hosts" cannot support it or finance it in the end. If it doesn't work for the casino or card room, it doesn't work in the end.
Without this type of free information passed around Darksiders would be 10 steps further back then they are now. Sure they like to think not, But I know the truth.
I wonder how you and others would feel if someone in the industry decided to do your jobs (possibly better) for free?
But there comes a point when a small side bet pay table change (that is probably in the public domain anyway; all this is in a patent from 1997), and that'll incur:
- math lab reports,
- gaming commission approvals,
- dealer retraining,
- documentation changes, etc.
and you don't own it; it's a lot of money and work spent for little, especially on the risk it has little impact.
Besides, the first thing the player will see is the reduced envies to account for including the dealer, and more player pushback.
Quote: AxelWolfYes it is a place to discuss things. People can say what they want. I cant stop it (trust me I have tried from the begging of Skip's page. That site has Single-handedly cost well informed AP's and players millions. Everything from Lurking casino personnel, educating new AP's to creating dark side monsters.
Don't worry too much about this. It's not costing anyone millions. This thing tops out at about $5 or $10 per hour.
If you can make more on the other side of the table, it's not really an advantage play...
