BIG QUESTION REGARDING INCREASING ODDS/NEED MATHEMATICIANS
Quote: paigow1986once again, i don't know if im making myself clear or not here. lets assume for the moment that its NOT pai gow, and im playing uth or 4 card, and im ONLY playing bonus's. rather than play $30 on 1 hand, i play $5 on 6 hands....how in the WORLD am i losing more by playing more? make that make sense to me please...
You are losing the same if you bet the same net amount per deal.
Quote: paigow1986so glad you bring this up. ive explained that ive probably played over 10,000 hands against my friend, so OBVIOUSLY he has had bomb hands before, he has had a full house with a pair of A's up front!! do i feel fortunate playing 6 hands when this happens? YES..want to know why?? because all it takes, is for me to have a flush or better on ANY ONE of my six hands and ive already broken even (on pai gow). had i been playing one hand, i would lose straight up...
If you play six hands of one player each, the odds of you getting the flush are exactly the same as if you played one hand playing all positions. Put it this way, the dealer has the full-house with a pair of A's up front, and the single hand that you're playing has a flush, while the other five hands have bupkus. Don't you feel more fortunate having one on that one hand vs the other five that lost?
Quote:now that's for pai gow. lets use that example for something like uth or 4 card, where once again ive explained over and over to you guys that THE DEALER'S HAND DOES NOT EVER MATTER. lets say on uth, the board reads, K K K A Q, the dealer has the fourth K. want to know how much that matters? ZERO. want to know why? because im getting paid at least 3 to 1 on ALL my hands, not only that, but im also going to get paid for a full house if any one of those 6 hands has an A or Q, not only that, but if by some chance one of those hands is J 10, i get paid more for that!! so to answer your question, am i more fortunate playing 6 hands, ABSOLUTELY. hell, when the game is uth or 4 card, we don't ever even flip the dealers cards over!
And how do you feel when the board reads 2K 7H 10S KC 3D and you have bupkus on all six hands? Feel fortunate now? Because the odds of that happening (of you getting bupkus) are much higher that seeing trips on the board.
"You are losing the same if you bet the same net amount per deal."
no shit..i would just rather have 42 cards and lose $30 rather than have 7 cards and lose $30...get it?
"If you play six hands of one player each, the odds of you getting the flush are exactly the same as if you played one hand playing all positions. Put it this way, the dealer has the full-house with a pair of A's up front, and the single hand that you're playing has a flush, while the other five hands have bupkus. Don't you feel more fortunate having one on that one hand vs the other five that lost?"
to answer your question, I NEVER feel fortunate playing just one hand on pai gow. I feel like I am being ripped off. especially nowadays the way my buddy spoils me with him being the house. the way I look at it, the dealer can have a monster on every hand, as long as im getting to play 6 hands and having multiple chances to hit 5 aces, im satisfied...
"And how do you feel when the board reads 2K 7H 10S KC 3D and you have bupkus on all six hands? Feel fortunate now? Because the odds of that happening (of you getting bupkus) are much higher that seeing trips on the board."
how do I feel when the board reads 2k 7h 10s kc 3d. ill tell you how I ALWAYS feel when I see the board that looks like that, because like you stated, it happens a lot more than seeing trips on the board. I feel like if I have 2 cards, than my chances of having a pair down isn't as good as if I had 12 cards, THATS HOW I FEEL! is there any way of figuring out what the chances are of having a pair down with 1 hand as opposed to 6? WAIT. STOP. don't bother with the math. ill make it easier for you so you can save some time on figuring difficult math like that. I don't want to have to pay you. ready? 1 hand < 6 hands. LOLZ.
So play 6 hands then at $5 over 1 hand at $30. You cut down your variance but you are expected to lose the same.
| Pays | Ways | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 48 | 0.002171945701357 | 0.173755656108597 |
| 60 | 52 | 0.002352941176471 | 0.141176470588235 |
| 12 | 720 | 0.032579185520362 | 0.390950226244344 |
| 8 | 1096 | 0.049592760180996 | 0.396742081447964 |
| 2 | 3744 | 0.169411764705882 | 0.338823529411765 |
| -2 | 16440 | 0.743891402714932 | -1.48778280542986 |
| Total | 22100 | 1 | -0.046334841628959 |
| Pays | Ways | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 2080 | 0.000005108426349 | 0.000408674107941 |
| 70 | 4128 | 0.000010138261524 | 0.000709678306675 |
| 60 | 2496 | 0.000006130111619 | 0.000367806697147 |
| 46 | 58272 | 0.000143114528954 | 0.006583268331883 |
| 44 | 89728 | 0.00022036965359 | 0.009696264757949 |
| 41 | 298944 | 0.000734198753151 | 0.030102148879192 |
| 39 | 1313472 | 0.003225853352798 | 0.125808280759112 |
| 36 | 61920 | 0.000152073922859 | 0.005474661222918 |
| 34 | 94256 | 0.000231490304796 | 0.007870670363072 |
| 31 | 336960 | 0.000827565068581 | 0.025654517125999 |
| 29 | 1413840 | 0.003472354571943 | 0.100698282586357 |
| 12 | 439104 | 0.001078428097917 | 0.012941137175001 |
| 10 | 1313472 | 0.003225853352798 | 0.032258533527978 |
| 8 | 1027024 | 0.00252234445333 | 0.020178755626637 |
| 7 | 4484160 | 0.011012981297265 | 0.077090869080857 |
| 5 | 6825888 | 0.016764204863615 | 0.083821024318074 |
| 5 | 19734528 | 0.048467491743015 | 0.242337458715074 |
| 3 | 30008016 | 0.073698913280533 | 0.2210967398416 |
| 2 | 11812320 | 0.029010753237465 | 0.05802150647493 |
| 0 | 102388320 | 0.251463072954223 | 0 |
| -2 | 225461472 | 0.553727559763676 | -1.10745511952735 |
| Total | 407170400 | 1 | -0.04633484162896 |
Note: the return difference is due to rounding. Using exact values, they are the same.
Quote: miplet3 card poker pair plus 1 hand at $2 vs 2 hands at $1 each:
Note: the return difference is due to rounding. Using exact values, they are the same.
I love you math guys. Sincerely. The return difference is in the hundred billionths or something...as in, never, but it still warrants a disclaimer.
To quote, and I hate to say it, Beethoven, "Ok, teacher..."
Show us the method and the math to make you think that you're right. Because until you do, you are just lucky. We've shown you the math to prove that you're lucky. Prove to us that you're not.
my whole argument was that your odds of winning increase a little bit. what your 2 charts suggest to me, is that you pretty much disagree with me and what EVERYONE else is saying. everyone else is saying your odds stay the same, im saying that your odds of winning increase, your 2 charts suggest that playing more than 1 hand DECREASES your chances of winning. for example, the probability of hitting a straight flush on 1 hand is 0.002171945701357, but when I play 2 hands, it decreases an unbelievable amount to 0.000005108426349. wtf?!?! something cannot be right there!!
and then finally you scroll all the way down for the total return, and somehow my return on the guy playing 2 hands chart is higher a billionth of a percent. maybe im missing something? like I said, I hope this chart is right, because the bet I made with my friend(and ive been telling you guys this entire time on this forum) is that it makes the TINIEST FRACTION OF A PERCENT of a difference....but im still puzzled as to why my probability of hitting a straight flush decrease on 2 hands as opposed to 1?
thanks for your time miplet.
Quote: paigow1986miplet: so im assuming the first chart is the guy betting 1 hand and the second chart is the guy betting 2 hands, correct? I am glad you put that chart up, I agree with it 100%. let me just make sure a few things are confirmed with you so I can show this to my buddy so I can show him that it DOES make the smallest fraction of a difference (because that's what the bet was).
my whole argument was that your odds of winning increase a little bit. what your 2 charts suggest to me, is that you pretty much disagree with me and what EVERYONE else is saying. everyone else is saying your odds stay the same, im saying that your odds of winning increase, your 2 charts suggest that playing more than 1 hand DECREASES your chances of winning. for example, the probability of hitting a straight flush on 1 hand is 0.002171945701357, but when I play 2 hands, it decreases an unbelievable amount to 0.000005108426349. wtf?!?! something cannot be right there!!
and then finally you scroll all the way down for the total return, and somehow my return on the guy playing 2 hands chart is higher a billionth of a percent. maybe im missing something? like I said, I hope this chart is right, because the bet I made with my friend(and ive been telling you guys this entire time on this forum) is that it makes the TINIEST FRACTION OF A PERCENT of a difference....but im still puzzled as to why my probability of hitting a straight flush decrease on 2 hands as opposed to 1?
thanks for your time miplet.
In the 1 hand case you need a single straight flush to get a return of 40 to 1 for the two hand case you need 2 straight flushes to get same return percentage of 40 to 1. So that is the odds of getting two straight flushes. And you read the whole post he made right the difference is due to a rounding error. The exact answer is exactly the same.
Quote: paigow1986for example, the probability of hitting a straight flush on 1 hand is 0.002171945701357, but when I play 2 hands, it decreases an unbelievable amount to 0.000005108426349. wtf?!?! something cannot be right there!!
I believe 0.000005108426349 is the probability of hitting a straight flush on both of your $1 hands. The probability of hitting exactly one straight flush when playing two hands is 0.003225853352798. The probability of hitting at least one SF would be the sum of those two numbers.
Quote: JimRockfordI believe 0.000005108426349 is the probability of hitting a straight flush on both of your $1 hands. The probability of hitting exactly one straight flush when playing two hands is 0.003225853352798. The probability of hitting at least one SF would be the sum of those two numbers.
+1. But what paigow wants to know is not BOTH hands but the likelihood of EITHER hand, even though his return is 1/2 of what he would receive if he bet the $2 on 1 hand. He wants hit frequency. I don't see how that can be a simple addition of those two numbers. Maybe 2x the probability of 1 hand.
beachbumbabs: im 100% with you on this one. I think the math that miplet presented to us is 100% correct, but in the 2 handed chart, those are my odds/probability of hitting TWO straight flushes on BOTH hands, which is not what im trying to figure out.
Quote: paigow1986jimrockford: I have to disagree with you when saying that the odds of me hitting at least one straight flush is the sum of those 2 numbers. well at least everyone on this forum would agree with that because the sum of those 2 numbers are 0.003230961779147 and that number doesn't match up to ANYTHING listed in that chart, so that cant be right.
beachbumbabs: im 100% with you on this one. I think the math that miplet presented to us is 100% correct, but in the 2 handed chart, those are my odds/probability of hitting TWO straight flushes on BOTH hands, which is not what im trying to figure out.
The chart wouldn't have anything with those numbers on it since the chart is a pay table. Getting 2 straight flushes doesn't pay the same as getting 1 straight flush. The two straight flushes are under pays 80 and the 1 straight flush is a subset of the pays 41 and pays 39.
Quote: beachbumbabs+1. But what paigow wants to know is not BOTH hands but the likelihood of EITHER hand, even though his return is 1/2 of what he would receive if he bet the $2 on 1 hand. He wants hit frequency. I don't see how that can be a simple addition of those two numbers. Maybe 2x the probability of 1 hand.
The chart is just an outcome distribution for the number of ways you can hit 40/30/6/4/1/-1 when playing a single 2x wager or two 1x wagers. The probability of hitting a single 40-1 pay is 0.0021719 per the first chart (shown as 80 due to the 2x wager). The probability of hitting at least one 40-1 pay (and anything else) from the second chart is the sum of the following entries:
80 (two 40-1 pays)
70 (one 40-1, one 30-1)
46 (one 40, one 6)
44 (one 40, one 4)
41 (one 40, one 1)
39 (one 40, one -1)
= 0.0043388
So the probability of hitting at least one 40-1 pay in two hands is just shy of twice as likely as hitting a single 40-1 pay with a single hand.
Quote: paigow1986mathextremist: so what I gathered is that the probability of hitting a straight flush with the guy betting 1 hand is 0.002171945701357, and that the probability of the guy playing 2 hands getting a straight flush on 1 hand and losing on the other is 0.003225853352798? i would to hear you say "yes" and you will never hear from me again...
Does best M.E. impression: Yes!
Quote: mipletDoes best M.E. impression: Yes!
What he said.
Quote: MathExtremistQuote: mipletDoes best M.E. impression: Yes!
What he said.
+145364
if you guys are prepared to say "well the return is the same", its not...because the return on 1 hand is 0.173755656108597 and the return on 2 hands is 0.125808280759112, which doesn't really make sense to me why the return is LOWER (hopefully you guys can explain). I mean, if this entire time you guys have told me its all the same, and come to find out the probability AND return are really different, then I guess we were all wrong? still makes no sense to me how the probability of hitting is higher, but your return is lower, I mean I would expect the return to be the exact same....right?
miplet, thanks again for busting out that chart bro, mad kudos.
Quote: paigow1986OMGZ!! WE HAVE A BREAKTHROUGH!!!!! ok!! sooooo...... just ONE more question.
Sorry, that wasn't the deal.
Quote: paigow1986if you guys are prepared to say "well the return is the same", its not...because the return on 1 hand is 0.173755656108597 and the return on 2 hands is 0.125808280759112, which doesn't really make sense to me why the return is LOWER (hopefully you guys can explain).
Yes, the return is indeed the same. You're not actually interpreting the chart correctly. It does you no good to look at the contribution of a given outcome -- you need to look at the overall return because that takes into account the entire game (and not just the event you care about). The EV of the bet doesn't change regardless of how many times you make it: in both cases, the overall return is exactly -18866176/407170400 = -1024/22100.
Quote: paigow1986OMGZ!! WE HAVE A BREAKTHROUGH!!!!! ok!! sooooo...... just ONE more question. what is the difference between what I have been saying this whole time and what I said in my last post? I assume you guys read through all my posts, im guessing you guys also knew about the bet that I made with my friend, what is the difference? I said that playing more than 1 hand increases your odds of making money, that chart ultimately proves my point, because if you have 2 hands as opposed to 1, your chances of hitting the straight flush is almost DOUBLED.
if you guys are prepared to say "well the return is the same", its not...because the return on 1 hand is 0.173755656108597 and the return on 2 hands is 0.125808280759112, which doesn't really make sense to me why the return is LOWER (hopefully you guys can explain). I mean, if this entire time you guys have told me its all the same, and come to find out the probability AND return are really different, then I guess we were all wrong? still makes no sense to me how the probability of hitting is higher, but your return is lower, I mean I would expect the return to be the exact same....right?
miplet, thanks again for busting out that chart bro, mad kudos.
Yeah the return from a straight flush in a single hand is .173755656 and the return for a straight flush and a loss is .125808 but the straight flush can also contribute other times. For instance it contributes when you have a straight flush and win on the other hand. Though why do you care about so a meaningless contribution your question originally was about total value of the bet and for that it was shown that there is no difference between one and 2 bets.
Quote: paigow1986mathextremist: understood....this may sound like a novice question but where are you getting the numbers -18866176 and -1024 from??
From the charts. Multiply the first two columns together. To get the EV, divide by the total number of outcomes.
(for the record, I have never played 3 card against my buddy, its always been pai gow, uth, or 4 card poker).
Quote: paigow1986mathextremist: you're going to hate me for this, but im still not seeing it. you told me to multiply the first two columns together. lets use the top chart, if I multiply 80x48, that is not 1024, 60x52, still not 1024, multiply them all the way down, Im just not getting 1024. regardless, im convinced now that playing the pairs plus on 3 card whether it be 1 hand at $10 or 2 hands at $5, I believe that the EV is the same. you got me. however, would the same rules still apply to a game like pai gow, where there is an envy along with a progressive, or even a game like uth, where the board plays a huge part in getting paid for a bonus (such as trips on the board), that would be completely different because at that point there is no such thing as "one hand loses, another hand wins" because in that situation NO HAND loses and ALL HANDS win. I know it would be A LOT to ask miplet to do a chart for uth or pai gow, so I don't expect him to, but im sure you understand my position as I am a firm believer in math, and I just refuse to believe that ive been constantly getting lucky for 2 years and SOOOO many hands later.
(for the record, I have never played 3 card against my buddy, its always been pai gow, uth, or 4 card poker).
The 1024 is a reduced fraction not the number you'll get to start. You want to multiply the number in the first column by number in second column and then add those all together. So 80*2080+70*4128+...-2*225461472 That is where you get -18866176 number.
Quote: paigow1986mathextremist: you're going to hate me for this, but im still not seeing it. you told me to multiply the first two columns together. lets use the top chart, if I multiply 80x48, that is not 1024, 60x52, still not 1024, multiply them all the way down, Im just not getting 1024.
And then add them together...
Quote:regardless, im convinced now that playing the pairs plus on 3 card whether it be 1 hand at $10 or 2 hands at $5, I believe that the EV is the same. you got me. however, would the same rules still apply to a game like pai gow, where there is an envy along with a progressive, or even a game like uth, where the board plays a huge part in getting paid for a bonus (such as trips on the board), that would be completely different
No, it's the same logic. The only time things change are when payouts are not consistent as the number of hands changes. Ironically, that can make it worse to play multiple hands in the case of progressives. For example, if you play one hand heads up and hit the progressive, you'd win 100%. But if you play two hands and hit the progressive on both (which can't happen with just one hand) then you might end up getting 50% of the prize on each hand. That means you win the same jackpot but paid 2x to do it, so your EV is slightly lower. So in the case of a progressive, depending on the rules, you may want to be the only player at the table.
And envy is the opposite: typically, the more players at the table, the better the envy return. That has nothing to do with who's making the bets, though -- if you're playing one hand next to 5 other people vs. you playing all 6 hands by yourself, the envy bet has the same edge. But generally, you'd rather make an envy-style bet when the table is full because it maximizes your return on the envy portion of the wager. See e.g., https://wizardofodds.com/games/pai-gow-poker/appendix/3/, which shows the incremental return of 0.93% for a $5 Envy Bet on Fortune Pai Gow when you increase the number of players (note to Wiz: the table heading says "Envry"). That 0.93% sounds like a lot, but in reality it's not because the Envy payouts are fixed even when the Envy bet increases. In other words, you'd win $5 if someone else has quads regardless of whether your Fortune bet was $5 or $100.
But the point is that there isn't a meaningful difference from either the progressive or envy aspects of things, at least not one that would account for your reported dramatic luck over the years. And when considering a table that will always be full (as opposed to one where you are alone and choosing to bet a different number of hands) there is zero difference in the EV between you playing one spot or two or all six. Look at it this way: the casino doesn't care who owns the money being wagered on the betting spots. If all six spots are bet upon, the edge is the edge, no matter who made the bets or how many wallets they shared.
"Look at it this way: the casino doesn't care who owns the money being wagered on the betting spots. If all six spots are bet upon, the edge is the edge, no matter who made the bets or how many wallets they shared."
that has got to be false. i consider myself a high better. at motorcity casino, i have a silver card (2nd best). if i wanted to, i can say to them "reserve a blackjack table for me, im going to play the entire table"...and they would. however, if i were to say "reserve me a pai gow table, i will be there to play tonight, the house can set all my hands for me, and if other people want to play i will let them play", they will NEVER let me do that. how do i know? because i called them last night with that proposal, i even asked them if i was a gold card holder if they would do it for me, and they said no, the MOST amount of hands they would let me play on pai gow would be TWO and that would need approval from the director of table games!! you can no longer say its because i will switch out cards/cheat (because i wont even touch them) and you can no longer say its because i can use the information from other hands (because i will let them set all my hands the house way for me)......if you, or anyone else on this forum personally knows of someone that is allowed to play 2 or more hands on pai gow, let me know, because ill never understand why they will let people do it on blackjack (and even 3 card), but not pai gow....
edit: and one more thing, i don't know if the wizard aka mike has seen this forum, but i absolutely would welcome any of his input to this discussion and respect whatever he has to say
Quote: paigow1986mathextremist: with all that said, I want to address one thing...
"Look at it this way: the casino doesn't care who owns the money being wagered on the betting spots. If all six spots are bet upon, the edge is the edge, no matter who made the bets or how many wallets they shared."
that has got to be false. i consider myself a high better. at motorcity casino, i have a silver card (2nd best). if i wanted to, i can say to them "reserve a blackjack table for me, im going to play the entire table"...and they would. however, if i were to say "reserve me a pai gow table, i will be there to play tonight, the house can set all my hands for me, and if other people want to play i will let them play", they will NEVER let me do that. how do i know? because i called them last night with that proposal, i even asked them if i was a gold card holder if they would do it for me, and they said no, the MOST amount of hands they would let me play on pai gow would be TWO and that would need approval from the director of table games!! you can no longer say its because i will switch out cards/cheat (because i wont even touch them) and you can no longer say its because i can use the information from other hands (because i will let them set all my hands the house way for me)......if you, or anyone else on this forum personally knows of someone that is allowed to play 2 or more hands on pai gow, let me know, because ill never understand why they will let people do it on blackjack (and even 3 card), but not pai gow....
edit: and one more thing, i don't know if the wizard aka mike has seen this forum, but i absolutely would welcome any of his input to this discussion and respect whatever he has to say
2 hands is quite common I see that all the time at the casino I went to when I used to live in the central valley. As for why they won't let you play multiple hands could just be it slows down play too much. But yeah essentially have the dealer setting all 7 hands so probably takes about 5 times longer than it normally should. Also pit might just be paranoid and not know how you'll cheat but think you might.
Quote: paigow1986mathextremist: with all that said, I want to address one thing...
"Look at it this way: the casino doesn't care who owns the money being wagered on the betting spots. If all six spots are bet upon, the edge is the edge, no matter who made the bets or how many wallets they shared."
that has got to be false. i consider myself a high better. at motorcity casino, i have a silver card (2nd best). if i wanted to, i can say to them "reserve a blackjack table for me, im going to play the entire table"...and they would. however, if i were to say "reserve me a pai gow table, i will be there to play tonight, the house can set all my hands for me, and if other people want to play i will let them play", they will NEVER let me do that. how do i know? because i called them last night with that proposal, i even asked them if i was a gold card holder if they would do it for me, and they said no, the MOST amount of hands they would let me play on pai gow would be TWO and that would need approval from the director of table games!! you can no longer say its because i will switch out cards/cheat (because i wont even touch them) and you can no longer say its because i can use the information from other hands (because i will let them set all my hands the house way for me)......if you, or anyone else on this forum personally knows of someone that is allowed to play 2 or more hands on pai gow, let me know, because ill never understand why they will let people do it on blackjack (and even 3 card), but not pai gow.
As you've just read from other members, they have been able to play multiple hands on non-BJ games. Casino rules vary widely from locale to locale.
Pai Gow is known to be vulnerable to collusion, so if you were free to set your own hands I can understand why they wouldn't want you playing all six. But I can't imagine why a casino wouldn't let you play multiple hands if you were limited to the house way for each one. Are you sure your casino host understood your offer? Did you actually ask whether you could play all six hands using house way, at a high limit, and they refused?
Still, that's a different issue -- if you're changing your strategy based on additional information, obviously the edge changes. The analyses and charts you saw earlier in this thread were based on that not happening. That is, the assumption was that you would play the hand exactly the same way as anyone else. If that's true, then your edge and their edge are the same. It doesn't matter who plays a hand. It just matters how. But that's just what the math means. Obviously, casino managers are free to ignore the math if they have other issues in mind, and perhaps they've done that in your situation.
Quote: MathExtremistBut I can't imagine why a casino wouldn't let you play multiple hands if you were limited to the house way for each one. Are you sure your casino host understood your offer? Did you actually ask whether you could play all six hands using house way, at a high limit, and they refused?
Still, that's a different issue -- if you're changing your strategy based on additional information, obviously the edge changes. The analyses and charts you saw earlier in this thread were based on that not happening. That is, the assumption was that you would play the hand exactly the same way as anyone else. If that's true, then your edge and their edge are the same. It doesn't matter who plays a hand. It just matters how. But that's just what the math means. Obviously, casino managers are free to ignore the math if they have other issues in mind, and perhaps they've done that in your situation.
I'm still going casino figures it would just slow down play too much. Also really depends on when he asked to do it. If he asked to do it on a weekend and they're normally full I could easily see them not wanting to offend a high limit player by not letting him play or slowing down play. I don't know his casino so can't say why you could be right and could just be poor math understanding on their part, casino management rarely have math degrees.
Quote: MathExtremistAs you've just read from other members, they have been able to play multiple hands on non-BJ games. Casino rules vary widely from locale to locale.
Pai Gow is known to be vulnerable to collusion, so if you were free to set your own hands I can understand why they wouldn't want you playing all six. But I can't imagine why a casino wouldn't let you play multiple hands if you were limited to the house way for each one. Are you sure your casino host understood your offer? Did you actually ask whether you could play all six hands using house way, at a high limit, and they refused?
Still, that's a different issue -- if you're changing your strategy based on additional information, obviously the edge changes. The analyses and charts you saw earlier in this thread were based on that not happening. That is, the assumption was that you would play the hand exactly the same way as anyone else. If that's true, then your edge and their edge are the same. It doesn't matter who plays a hand. It just matters how. But that's just what the math means. Obviously, casino managers are free to ignore the math if they have other issues in mind, and perhaps they've done that in your situation.
mathextremist: I called motorcity casino(the pit) and specifically said "I am a high limit player, I can give you my silver card number, I want to come into your high limit room and play at least 3 hands of pai gow" they said "no" I said "how much would you make the minimum for me in order to play, ill play up to $300 a hand" they said "that's not the issue, the issue would be using card information and swapping cards" I said "I wont even touch the cards, the dealer can set my hands up the house way on all my hands and if others want to play ill take a hand out" they said "we will never let anyone play 3 hands of pai gow, 2 at the most" I said "so can I?" they said "at this time, we can not allow it" I said "when will you allow it, let me know what I can do to set something up with you guys so I can do this" they said "we have never done that for anyone, and don't plan on starting".
now this casino has been open for at LEAST 12 or 13 years, so that's saying SOMETHING! and keep in mind there was a lot in that conversation I left out, such as how im such a good patron, and I only gamble at motorcity, and I spend tons of money, yada yada yada, and they STILL shit on me! and it CLEARLY has nothing to do with cheating/using card information..
twirdman: I told you I was going to stop responding to you all together, but Ive ignored you enough, and ill entertain your question to me.
Quote: TwirdmanQuote: MathExtremistBut I can't imagine why a casino wouldn't let you play multiple hands if you were limited to the house way for each one. Are you sure your casino host understood your offer? Did you actually ask whether you could play all six hands using house way, at a high limit, and they refused?
Still, that's a different issue -- if you're changing your strategy based on additional information, obviously the edge changes. The analyses and charts you saw earlier in this thread were based on that not happening. That is, the assumption was that you would play the hand exactly the same way as anyone else. If that's true, then your edge and their edge are the same. It doesn't matter who plays a hand. It just matters how. But that's just what the math means. Obviously, casino managers are free to ignore the math if they have other issues in mind, and perhaps they've done that in your situation.
I'm still going casino figures it would just slow down play too much. Also really depends on when he asked to do it. If he asked to do it on a weekend and they're normally full I could easily see them not wanting to offend a high limit player by not letting him play or slowing down play. I don't know his casino so can't say why you could be right and could just be poor math understanding on their part, casino management rarely have math degrees.
I called them late Tuesday early Wednesday morning (today), at around 5:30am, I had a few buddies that were actually already there and they told me that there was not a SINGLE PERSON in their entire high limit PERIOD at that time. so to answer your question, the reason they don't allow it is not because they are jam packed, it is because they have a "poor understanding of math"....but you are probably right, I highly doubt any of them to have even high school diplomas...
Quote: paigow1986I called motorcity casino(the pit) and specifically said "I am a high limit player, I can give you my silver card number, I want to come into your high limit room and play at least 3 hands of pai gow" they said "no" I said "how much would you make the minimum for me in order to play, ill play up to $300 a hand" they said "that's not the issue, the issue would be using card information and swapping cards" I said "I wont even touch the cards, the dealer can set my hands up the house way on all my hands and if others want to play ill take a hand out" they said "we will never let anyone play 3 hands of pai gow, 2 at the most" I said "so can I?" they said "at this time, we can not allow it" I said "when will you allow it, let me know what I can do to set something up with you guys so I can do this" they said "we have never done that for anyone, and don't plan on starting".
Your problem was that you called the pit, not your host. You're trying to convince the pit to change its procedure for you -- that'll never happen, even if you want to bet $3000/hand. Deals like that need to come from within.
Also, your timing is terrible. There have been several deals like that made by gamblers recently where the gambler obtained a significant upper hand through procedure changes. Don Johnson in AC and Phil Ivey in the UK come to mind. You'll need to do better than just arguing "it doesn't matter."
Quote: boymimboIn three card, the normal strategy is to raise with Q-6-4 or higher (or is is Q-7-3?). If you have a hand with AKQ in it, you would adjust your strategy and might raise on a lower hand because you know that three high cards are out.
In addition, I know some houses won't let you play more than 1 hard at 3 card poker due to the risk of cheating, i.e. swapping cards between the hands to make better hands. Would take a real card shark to pull this off, but they don't even want the possibility.
I've also seen houses where you can play more than one hand, but the dealer handles the 2nd hand for you and you are not allowed to touch it (can still make the raise/fold decision).
acesandeights: I never play 3 card my friend, however, an old wise man once told me that the best strategy to playing 3 card would be to NOT play the pairs plus and always play every hand blind.
guys, I feel like this thread is coming to an end. and while the vast majority of you guys said that playing more than 1 hand DOES increase your probability of making better hands, it keeps your EV exactly the same. i appreciate EVERYONES input on this matter, but i still refuse to believe it due to the fact that i keep winning against my buddy. i played with him again last night and won another $700 over a period of about 2-3 hours playing pai gow betting anywhere from $15-$70 on the ante, and $5 on the bonus's everytime. i understand people get lucky, and i understand mathematics pretty well, but for you guys to say that EV is exactly the same and im just the luckiest guy in the world, i say to you all, that my mother is a virgin.
i urge you guys to try it at home, get out a deck of cards, and do a little trial run of 20-30 hands of pai gow with chips out and everything. after 30 hands, i promise you guys you will see what i mean when i tell you that EV HAS TO CHANGE
then when you're done with pai gow, do a little trial of 20-30 hands with uth, deal out 6 hands to yourself betting $5 a piece on each hand, and put out a flop and just SEE what happens. you will be very surprised by the results....
Quote: paigow1986
guys, I feel like this thread is coming to an end. and while the vast majority of you guys said that playing more than 1 hand DOES increase your probability of making better hands, it keeps your EV exactly the same. i appreciate EVERYONES input on this matter, but i still refuse to believe it due to the fact that i keep winning against my buddy. i played with him again last night and won another $700 over a period of about 2-3 hours playing pai gow betting anywhere from $15-$70 on the ante, and $5 on the bonus's everytime. i understand people get lucky, and i understand mathematics pretty well, but for you guys to say that EV is exactly the same and im just the luckiest guy in the world, i say to you all, that my mother is a virgin.
i urge you guys to try it at home, get out a deck of cards, and do a little trial run of 20-30 hands of pai gow with chips out and everything. after 30 hands, i promise you guys you will see what i mean when i tell you that EV HAS TO CHANGE
then when you're done with pai gow, do a little trial of 20-30 hands with uth, deal out 6 hands to yourself betting $5 a piece on each hand, and put out a flop and just SEE what happens. you will be very surprised by the results....
No offense but this is exactly why people like you should be dismissed out of hand. You say you understand math but you really don't. You have a gut feeling and you know what screw the number because it just feels right. Also after 30 hands you aren't seeing a thing, you might think you are but you're not the sample size is just far to small to draw any conclusions. For the bonus bet on 2 hands of 3 card poker there are 407170400 combinations. The number is far larger for pai gow and far larger for 6 hands then 2 but lets just stick with the small number. Your 30 card experiment is like trying to find the result of an election in the US by polling roughly 20 random people, actually worse then this since variance of 3 card poker is higher then variance of polling but this wasn't meant to be a perfect analogy just designed to show the flaws in your line of thinking. The error bounds would be astronomical and hence meaningless for drawing conclusions. Seriously though no matter how much it feels like something in your gut if math says your wrong, and math does say your wrong, then you are wrong. You are like every system player out there who "knows" they have an advantage and people who say they don't just don't get "their math". If you just know you have to be right write a simple math program to show it if the numbers bear you out then hot damn we were wrong but I'm guessing if the numbers show you wrong it will just be another excuse won't it.
10,000 hands played with wagers that have greater than a 1:1 payout is a very small sample size.Quote: paigow1986I only said 20-30 because I don't want to waste anymore of your guys' time, I feel like ive asked for enough. call me hard headed, but ive played easily over TEN THOUSAND hands.
Many can and do show a net profit from playing that many hands.
Take the Pass Line player in Craps for an example
$5 with 10X odds always ($50)
never missing a bet
the EV is -$707.07 for 10,000 bets made
This is also true for the Pass Line player
never making the odds bet.
(this player has only about a 7.87% chance
of coming out even or ahead. some may say that is way too high)
Back to the odds. (payoffs at 6:5, 3:2 and 2:1)
(your games have even HIGHER payoffs)
EV / SD = -0.130827922
(MathExtremist talked about variance. This is what he means)
Normal Distribution in Excel shows 44.8%
would be the probability of any one player still being even or ahead after that many wagers made.
what is that... about 440,000 out of 1 million.
quite a few would show a very large net win too and
many still would not believe that they were just lucky to keep winning.
they had to win by skill, or something they were doing, whatever that is.
I have my lucky 2 headed coin I carry. I am a lifetime winner in the casinos.
Doing a simulation is impressive to many, but many still refuse to believe a computer can do what real cards and a real shuffle can do.Quote: paigow1986I REFUSE to believe that ive been getting lucky almost every single time I play against my buddy. I was really hoping I would come on here and people would link me to a website or tell me to buy/download a program where I can input these figures, guess not, guess I have to go by what the majority of the people on this forum are telling me, and keep on winning money against my pal. thanks again twirdman, you were by far the most helpful of ANYONE on here!! lolz
What you need to do is learn what the variance/standard deviation for each bet you make is.
do the math.
One bet per round (easy) and up to 6 bets per round (not as easy)
Then the EV and SD for 10,000 rounds played.
You will see the chance of a net profit is not zero.
It will be far from it and far from 100% too.
It is not that hard.
I have the thickest skull known to man and I learned how to do it.
Now miplet might have to show you how the probabilities are exactly calculated for 2 or more hands played because each hand played is not independent, like throwing a pair of dice is in Craps.
He is very good at that.
But I have a strong feeling that he has done enough for you
and doing anything more will be a waste of his time. (Sally can be wrong here)
You are winning from your buddy because of variance.
It really is that simple. Your sample size is too small.
I doubt anyone here wants to wish you bad luck.
but if we all had good luck in the casinos, they would have to change all the games dramatically
so they get the good luck over many millions of bets made.
so good luck to continue for you
Sally
Why not just take this show on the road? Head to Vegas? I know you already told us, they wont let you play multiple hands. Get a team together or hire some guys to bet for you.Quote: paigow1986MONTHLY UPDATE: still doing this.........still winning.....
by the way, my monthly updates don't need any replies, I just promised to let you guys know that if I lost back this $10,000+ anytime soon, I would let you know, and you guys could say "ha ha told you so". the only reason I will continue updating monthly is because according to most of the people on this forum, this little experimental trial run isn't enough, and I need at least 1 million hands or something. well im at around 20k now, so next time I post, I will hopefully be at around 100k hands!
I guess i cant answer that question because I'm not sure if you claim to have an advantage by playing this way or or not. Or you just think it shaves off a tiny bit to your overall negative EV.Quote: paigow1986why take it to vegas? its not like I wish I could bet more, as far as the progressive bonus bets on pai gow go, the min/max on it is $5. all I want is the opportunity to play 6 progressive bonus bets at $5 per hand....why would I need to go to vegas for this when I have a friend that will book all my bets as the house in the comfort of either my house or his?
by the way, my monthly updates don't need any replies, I just promised to let you guys know that if I lost back this $10,000+ anytime soon, I would let you know, and you guys could say "ha ha told you so". the only reason I will continue updating monthly is because according to most of the people on this forum, this little experimental trial run isn't enough, and I need at least 1 million hands or something. well im at around 20k now, so next time I post, I will hopefully be at around 100k hands!
I really wish mike aka the "wizard" would come and give his opinion on this thread, I see him always posting on threads to answer math questions that others have (really easy questions I feel anyone can answer)....but for some reason he avoids posting on the thread that got 195 replies and 4414 views.... I mean even if he were to come on here and say "paigow, you're wrong, the EV does not change at all" I would REALLY appreciate that....oh well....
I don't think you would like what the Wizard had to say. If he told you "paigow, you're wrong", would you believe him ? IMO, you have had people with similar intelligence already comment.
i didn't expect to be up THIS much, i only had planned on winning $500 or so after about 10k hands so i can rub it in his face and say "told ya so", because even if it was only $10 im up after all these hands and all these times, my theory would STILL be correct in saying that it shaves off the tiniest fraction of a percent as far as EV goes. to be honest with you, i think the only reason why the wizard has not commented on this thread is because he has never had a circumstance like this so complex brought to him before(as far as one person playing multiple hands in a carnival game where a progressive is involved). everyone knows that the casino wins at the end of the day regardless, if there is 1 person playing at that table, or 6 people playing, the EV of the casino stays the same...but what about that ONE INDIVIDUAL'S EV when he plays multiple hands? if the min/max bet on the progressive is $5 and the casino gives me the option of playing all 6 hands, i refuse to believe any mathematician will tell me EV stays exactly the same. if the wizard is willing to tell me that i am wrong, then i will go on living my life knowing that for 2 years and over 10,000 hands, i was pretty much the luckiest person OF ALL TIME.
Quote: AxelWolfSo why do you think you are doing so well when your friend banks the game for you?
I don't think you would like what the Wizard had to say. If he told you "paigow, you're wrong", would you believe him ? IMO, you have had people with similar intelligence already comment.
+1
Quote: paigow1986if the min/max bet on the progressive is $5 and the casino gives me the option of playing all 6 hands, i refuse to believe any mathematician will tell me EV stays exactly the same.
What does your intuition say about buying one Powerball lottery ticket vs. six tickets? How is that situation different from the one you're describing?
