BIG QUESTION REGARDING INCREASING ODDS/NEED MATHEMATICIANS
Lets look at the board in question with 2 hands betting $15 each for a total of $30. I'm not going to do 6 hands because the math is a disaster to illustrate the same point.
Total ways to arrange the 47 remaining cards into 2 unique holdem hands on a board of 2 5 7 J Q:
(47*46*45*44*3/(4*3*2*1) = 535,095
Ways to form two hands with a set:
15*12/2 = 90
Probability of making two sets (win $90): 90/535,095 = 3.3638887e-4 = 1 in 5945.5
Ways to form one hand with a set (win $45 and lose $15 = win $30):
15*[45*44/2 - 12 (other set combos left)] = 14,670
Probability of making exactly one set from two hands: 14,670/535,095 = 0.0274157 = 1 in 36.48
Ways to form two hands with no sets (lose $30):
535,095 - 90 - 14,670 = 520,335
Probability of two hands with no sets: 520,335/535,095 = 0.972416113
Now lets look at the expected values of either playing one hand or two on this board:
One hand:
Probability of hitting a set with only one hand: 3*5/[47*46/2] = 15/1081 = 0.013876 = 1 in 72.0666
(15/1081)*($90) + (1066/1081)(-$30) = -$28.335
Two hands:
(90/535095)*($90) + (14670/535095)*($30) + (520335/535095)*(-$30) = -$28.335
They are exactly the same monetary result on average!!!
Long story short, if someone bets 10,000 hands of $100 each on a game where the house expects to win 1% or if someone bets 1000 hands of $1000 each on the same game, I would expect both of them to lose $1000 on average. Playing more hands for proportionally smaller stakes does NOT help you win more money in the long run.
As for player preferences, some people would only want 2 hole cards because they would rather increase their variance by betting more on one hand versus splitting it up. I would only want two cards at a casino for instance because I have no interest in wagering more than the minimum of a $5 ante UTH game.
Also people bet other people's side bets because they want action and ploppies believe in streaks, so they want in on the action of a not side bettor is hitting. Last time I played on a 21+3 table, a guy wanted to play my side bet because I was hot. The dealer didn't allow him to do so.
Quote: paigow1986rdw4potus: glad you realized that you CAN use information on blackjack games to increase your odds of winning
ibeatyouraces: please explain to g71,rdw4potus and tringlomane why you would rather play 6 hands at $5 as opposed to one hand at $30, they still don't seem to get it, if it makes no difference, then why play the way i suggested??
That is his personal preference. In terms of expected value, it makes no difference.
Quote: paigow1986a few nights ago, we were playing uth, the flop came out K K K.....now according to g71, rdw4potus and tringlomane....they would take their chances betting $30 and get only 2 cards(to see if they have that fourth king), rather than betting $30 to get 12 cards(to see if they have that fourth king)....if you're going to say "well you would win more if you had that 4th king for $30!!"..that might be true, but you only have TWO cards, TWO outs, TWO chances......i get TWELVE....but my odds don't increase?!!? i <3 u guys lolz
Again, personal preference. In terms of EV, still makes no difference in expected value if you are betting 1 hand at $30, 30 at $1, 6 at $5, 5 at $6, whatever.
You might prefer one or the other. The fact that getting 4 kings is really exciting to you and the fact that you don't understand the math doesn't change the math.
I just hope your blocking your IP address well since this sounds like illegal gambling.Quote: paigow1986me and my friends are ALL up on him. i would like to say of the 200+ hands we get out per night, i come out making money 75-80% of the time after each hand. sometimes we will bet both the ante and the bonus, sometimes we will bet just the bonus, but for the most part we're always winning. sometimes we will up our bets, its not like we are ALWAYS betting $5 at a time EVERYTIME (only on bonus's), but as far as the ante go, we will bet anywhere from $15 to $200 per hand. the paytables he gives us on pai gow are the ones we get off wizardofodds.com (he gives us the lowest paytables), he also charges us commission, and he wins on all pushes. he also does NOT give us the opportunity to bank. at this rate, i could bet $1 a hand against him for the rest of the year, get out 100,000 more hands and STILL say that i am up on him. try it at home, get some chips out, deal out 6 hands vs the dealers 1 hand, and a little experiment yourself, you will be VERY surprised by the results.
the reason we started doing this in the beginning is because we made a bet about this, he bet me $500 that playing more than 1 hand on carnival games does not increase your odds of winning money AT ALL...not even a fraction of a percent. we would bicker about it every single day and ask tons of people for their input. i even went to a casino down where i live by (mgm grand Detroit, not a 'sweating the money type of casino'), and it was a thursday or wednesday night at about 5am, i went to the pai gow table and it was a ghost town, no body in sight. i asked the dealer, the floor person and the pit manager to let me play THREE hands, they all said no, when i asked why they said it was to accommodate other players, i told them that if other players were to sit down and play i would gladly take off my hands and let them play, they still refused. after talking with numerous pit managers and floors about the bet we made, they told me that "obviously we don't want one person to play all the hands because then their chances of winning the $250,000 progressive increases sufficiently and we don't want that". makes sense....doesn't it?
Quote: paigow1986
admin: if what you are saying is true, then rather than play 10 or 20 lines of the mega millions (like I usually do), I will just play 1. because whats the point in playing more? it doesn't increase my odds at all right? if the person playing 1 line hits, he hits for $300 million, if the person playing 10 or 20 lines hits, he hits for $300 million, so what sense does it make to throw more money on the lottery if my odds of winning the PROGRESSIVE JACKPOT are exactly the same? my life has new meaning to it now. rather than drop 100 raffle tickets in a drum, I will just drop 1, because my odds of winning do not increase AT ALL, so whats the point?
The thing about sarcasm is that sarcasm should come from a position of assured superiority, which doesn't work very well when you are wrong.
You're comparing apples to oranges with Mega Millions, in the first place, but I'll ignore that and still address your post.
1.) The EV of every ticket remains the same because you have no advanace information.
2.) HOWEVER, what you are doing is increasing the overall odds of you winning the Jackpot, assuming every ticket you buy has different numbers.
Here's the thing: If you had the means and time to do so, you could buy every possible ticket combination to ensure you win the Powerball, including the Progressive, but if you are at -EV and buy every combination of tickets...at 100% to win the jackpot...you lose money. If you buy the tickets at +EV, you will win money.
The Variance is 0, you will either win or lose a fixed amount.
Which is kind of the point I'm making, in case you missed my prior post.
mission146: I get it now. from now on I am done playing multiple lines on the lottery. ive been lied to my entire life.
tringlomane: I really appreciate you breaking it down for me like that. but I would appreciate if you did some more math for me because I feel like the math you did up there, while it was correct, it was mainly just for ante bets. you forgot to throw in many variables for trips or better, cuz while it may be that for JUST a set, what if I HIT THE JACKPOT?? . I know this is a silly little forum, and you're taking time out of your life to do all this and write this down and do these math computations for me. but I must ask you ONE more thing. to do some math on a game where I think you can increase your odds with NO BONUS BETTING. what I gather from what everyone is telling me, that the house will always have an expected W/L average with WHATEVER/HOWEVER money they're betting. well let me tell you about this old man that plays roulette EVERY DAY at the casino I work at.
he always comes there with at least $700-800. he's also playing single zero roulette. and when he plays, he bets $25 chips, this is how he lays em out:
1-4 line (2 chips)
8-10 corner (1 chip)
14-16 corner (1 chip)
19-22 line (2 chips)
27-29 corner(1 chip)
31-34 line (2 chips)
he tells me he's betting $225 to make $75. he only loses on the numbers 9 12 15, 18, 25 28 & 0. he tells me he is 81% to win every roll. and i know he wins the MAJORITY of the time he plays with me. its mind blowing. he also does this other thing, where on the rare occasion he does lose his first or second bet he will go double on the next roll, and if by some chance he loses 2 in a row, he will go triple. so will go from betting 9, to 18 to 36 chips.
so now with that out of the way. i ask you this (with no sarcasm intended). is he better off making money in the long run betting the way he's betting now (over 100,000 spins), or is he better off putting all $225 on ONE NUMBER??? if there is some sort of math to show how he does in the long run, i would love to see it.
Lets hope not since you have such a nice passive demeanor, If you did I'm sure your anal region would stay unmolested.Quote: paigow1986axelwolf: im terrified, I just hope they don't also bust me for my poker table and poker chips as well....we're high rollers, our tourneys are $20 buy ins!!.
I find that interesting.... I though you were betting upwards of $200 per spot.
Quote: paigow1986
he always comes there with at least $700-800. he's also playing single zero roulette. and when he plays, he bets $25 chips, this is how he lays em out:
1-4 line (2 chips)
8-10 corner (1 chip)
14-16 corner (1 chip)
19-22 line (2 chips)
27-29 corner(1 chip)
31-34 line (2 chips)
he tells me he's betting $225 to make $75. he only loses on the numbers 9 12 15, 18, 25 28 & 0. he tells me he is 81% to win every roll. and i know he wins the MAJORITY of the time he plays with me. its mind blowing. he also does this other thing, where on the rare occasion he does lose his first or second bet he will go double on the next roll, and if by some chance he loses 2 in a row, he will go triple. so will go from 9, to 18 to 36 chips.
so now with that out of the way. i ask you this (with no sarcasm intended). is he better off making money in the long run betting the way he's betting now (over 100,000 spins), or is he better off putting all $225 on ONE NUMBER??? if there is some sort of math to show how he does in the long run, i would love to see it.
Gin or whiskey, do I need a shot of gin or whiskey?
You also realize, if he comes in with $700-$800, he can't go Double with less than $775 and he can't go Triple with less than $1,550?
Just sayin'.
He just doesn't sound very prepared, that's all.
You're still comparing apples to oranges! Now, you're not talking about playing five hands of anything, but making multiple bets on one spin of the Roulette wheel. Again, if you want to minimize Variance, bet $5 on each individual number, lose $5.00 every time, you have my word.
(6/37 * 75) + (4/37 * 0) + (4/37 * 0) + (6/37 * 75) + (4/37 * 0) + (6/37 * 75) - (7/37 * 225) = -6.081081081081084
Expected Return of -$6.08
-225 * .027027 = -6.081074999999999
I'll be darned, the Expected Loss is the same, imagine that!
It's very simple. His method of betting improves his probability of winning on any one spin in the game of Roulette, however, on those 7/37 spins that result in a loss, he absolutely eats it. His corner bets are also absolutely pointless because they're a wash, so what's the point?
Listen, as long as we are talking about things that are completely irrelevant, I'm going to give you a really great probability of winning any isolated trial that will also fail overall, and it's called the Martingale System. We're going to go with a $5 Minimum and $500 Maximum, so spread from 5-10-20-40-80-160-320 on any Even Money bet in single-zero Roulette.
Okay, now in order to lose, the opposite of what you bet must happen Seven consecutive times and you will lose $635:
(19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (-635) = -5.979114407163546
However, if you win, you will win $5.00.
(19/37)^7 = 0.00941592820025755
(1-0.00941592820025755) * 5 = 4.952920358998712
Thus, the overall expected loss is: 4.952920358998712 - 5.979114407163546 = -1.0261940481648332
Which correlates to an average total bet of -1.0261940481648332/.027027 = -37.969217751316584
Even though your probability of winning any one trial is: (1-0.00941592820025755) = 0.9905840717997425
You will still lose in the long run.
What's that? Average bet? Have to prove it? Sure thing, boss!
(18/37) * 5 = 2.4324324324324324
(19/37) * (18/37) * 15 = 3.7472607742878012
(19/37) * (19/37) * (18/37) * 35 = 4.489961107930428
(19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (18/37) * 75 = 4.940690794440819
(19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (18/37) * 155 = 5.243363744010165
(19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (18/37) * 315 = 5.471932346626128
(19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * (19/37) * 635 = 11.643538582371116
11.643538582371116+5.471932346626128+5.243363744010165+4.940690794440819+4.489961107930428+3.7472607742878012+2.4324324324324324 = 37.96917978209889
Errors due to rounding, brother!!!
Have you read my two short stories, The Ultimate System and The Ultimate System II? Just askin'.
Now, you look at that Seven-Step Marty and think, "Well, I'm over 99% to win, that's awesome!!!"
Hold up, cowboy.
The thing about the Martingale is that while you are making separate bets, you're actually making one bet, and that bet is $635 to win $5 that the opposite proposition of what you are betting will not happen seven times in a row.
Let's talk about breaking even.
In order to break even, your Martingale would need to be successful 127 times prior to failing once.
And, the probability of that is:
(1-0.00941592820025755)^127 = 0.3007462585722168
30.1%, ruh-roh, Shaggy.
Actually, the Marty reaches over a 50% probability of failure at:
(0.9905840717997425)^74 = 0.49654566075903056 for a 50.35% chance of failure.
You'd still be a bit away from +$400, at that point.
Coming Full Circle
So, let's talk about your friend, who allegedly has the Martingale beat and is expected to win in the long-term:
The first thing we need to know about your friend is that he doesn't win 81% of the time, he wins OR breaks even on 81% of bets.
As with the Marty, he's not really making multiple bets if he is committed to his system, he is making one bet that 9, 12, 15, 18, 25, 28 & 0 will not show up.
The first thing we need to do is realize that he doesn't win on any result that doesn't lose, overall.
In fact, breaking it down, we have:
(18/37 * 75) + (12/37 * 0) - (225 * 7/37) = -6.081081081081081, same as before.
Now, we're all juiced over that 30/37 = 0.8108108108108109 win rate, but we have to look at actual wins here, not that break-even crap.
He actually wins 18/37 = 0.4864864864864865 of the time. The win rate multiplied by amount won is $36.48648648648649, which is his average win, when he wins.
Don't believe me?
(18/37 * 75) + (12/37 * 0) = 36.48648648648649
Because any number times zero is zero, which is coincidentally how much he wins when he hits a corner.
What's the point of all of this?
The point of this is that he actually needs to hit 225/36.48648648648649 = 6.166666666666666...going up....
7 of his line bets before ONE of the off 7 numbers in order to be ahead.
Uh-Oh...
Okay, so let's disclude this Push crap completely, and see what we have left:
(18/37 * 75) - (225 * 7/37) = -6.081081081081081
Zero still equals zero.
The probability of him hitting the Line is 18/37 = 0.4864864864864865
The probability of him hitting one of the Sucky Seven is 7/37 = 0.1891891891891892
On average, he will hit one of the Sucky Seven 0.4864864864864865/0.1891891891891892 once every 2.5714285714285716 times one of his Line numbers hits.
Which is the same as 18/7, of course.
I mean, he could just bet $225 on an Even-Money proposition that is 18/37 to win him $225.
Which is why his system absolutely sucks. In fact, on resolutions that actually see him winning or losing money only:
(18/25 * 75) - (7/25 * 225) = -9.000000000000007 he actually loses $9.00, on average.
Why is this?
Because those resolutions that lose nothing are actually GOOD for him, in this scenario, because nothing is MORE than the House Edge, which is less than nothing from the perspective of the player...
And, which is exactly what he is going to have if he faithfully plays this system long enough.
81% to win, indeed.
He is 48.6% to win, 32.4% to Push, and 18.9% to lose, less than 100% due to rounding, good day, sir.
mission146: just played with him again last night. won another $500. it seems like the math you guys are doing is correct (ive gone through it thoroughly)....it only lets me draw these conclusions
a. im the luckiest person in the world...2 years and 10,000 hands later
b. whenever I go to play the lottery, im best off playing 1 ticket as opposed to 20
c. the reason the casino doesn't let you play more than 1 carnival hand is because information using and cheating
d. old man that plays roulette every night has lied to me, about everything...what I have seen with my own 2 eyes....all LIES
but to correct you on another point on your last sentence...he is 50% to win, 31% to push, and 19% to lose
if he's betting 9 chips to get back 3, this is how MY math goes(assuming these are all dollar chips):
50% of the time he will win $150 (50(times out of 100) x 3(amount of chips he gets back)=$150
31% of the time he will win $0
19% of the time he will lose $171 (19(times out of 100) x 9(amount of chips he loses)=$171
so correct me if im wrong my good friend. but MY math tells me that 81% of the time he will be getting back $150, and 19% of the time he will lose $171. I basically took what you did, rounded up, and simplified it into dollars cuz I don't like decimals numbers that are not whole. but let me know if my math is (pretty much) correct. because if that's the case, ill take my chances with how old man bets...
I know you guys are all probably thinking "man when will this guy stop?! when will he just admit he's wrong?!?".....and ive told this to my buddy who plays against me...I will admit im wrong when im DOWN money to him......and it will be a LONGGGGGGGGGGGGG time before that ever happens, it will actually NEVER happen because I don't see myself losing all that money back to him........good day to you too sir!!
Quote: paigow1986axelwolf: im glad you worry about my anus and how unmolested it is...but when we play poker tourneys we play welfare games...when I play against my buddy and he's the house, im looking to crack him to prove my point, and so far im almost $10k richer, which is probably $9,999 more than you have to your name
mission146: just played with him again last night. won another $500. it seems like the math you guys are doing is correct (ive gone through it thoroughly)....it only lets me draw these conclusions
a. im the luckiest person in the world...2 years and 10,000 hands later
b. whenever I go to play the lottery, im best off playing 1 ticket as opposed to 20
c. the reason the casino doesn't let you play more than 1 carnival hand is because information using and cheating
d. old man that plays roulette every night has lied to me, about everything...what I have seen with my own 2 eyes....all LIES
but to correct you on another point on your last sentence...he is 50% to win, 31% to push, and 19% to lose
if he's betting 9 chips to get back 3, this is how MY math goes(assuming these are all dollar chips):
50% of the time he will win $150 (50(times out of 100) x 3(amount of chips he gets back)=$150
31% of the time he will win $0
19% of the time he will lose $171 (19(times out of 100) x 9(amount of chips he loses)=$171
so correct me if im wrong my good friend. but MY math tells me that 81% of the time he will be getting back $150, and 19% of the time he will lose $171. I basically took what you did, rounded up, and simplified it into dollars cuz I don't like decimals numbers that are not whole. but let me know if my math is (pretty much) correct. because if that's the case, ill take my chances with how old man bets...
I know you guys are all probably thinking "man when will this guy stop?! when will he just admit he's wrong?!?".....and ive told this to my buddy who plays against me...I will admit im wrong when im DOWN money to him......and it will be a LONGGGGGGGGGGGGG time before that ever happens, it will actually NEVER happen because I don't see myself losing all that money back to him........good day to you too sir!!
To be clear, you are best off not playing the lottery at all. If you insist on playing, yes, 1 is better than 20.
(6/37 * 75) + (4/37 * 0) + (4/37 * 0) + (6/37 * 75) + (4/37 * 0) + (6/37 * 75) - (7/37 * 225) = -6.081081081081084
Expected Return of -$6.08
-225 * .027027 = -6.081074999999999
wouldn't I be right to win the bet?? I mean if expected return is 6.08108 on the way old man plays as opposed to 6.08107, can I collect on my bet? If I had made that bet with you, and I said "even the smallest miniscule fraction of a percent", even though it is ALMOST identical expected value, wouldn't I still be correct??? at least give me THAT MUCH.
thanks for putting up with me guys, I know I can be frustrating, but I stand behind what I know and what ive seen, and I honestly refuse to believe that I have been getting lucky these last 2 years and all these hands later. it just doesn't make sense...
EDIT: I will be sure to read your short stories and tell you what I think about them in the thread. I love short stories and gambling, so this should be delightful
Quote: paigow1986
a. im the luckiest person in the world...2 years and 10,000 hands later
That's the thing about it, it's Variance. You wouldn't have to even be the luckiest person in the world (how much are you ahead, overall?). Whatever you could come up with, someone could design a simulation and tell you where the standard deviations are, i.e. exactly how, "Lucky," you are.
Simulations have, "Runs," which are simply the same thing as...let's say we had 10,000 people each with the same amount of starting money use that guy's Roulette system, each of those would be a run.
Let's look at the Red/Black bet in single-zero Roulette with this Simulator:
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator_java.htm
Now, we're just going to simply bet Red/Black with a starting bankroll of $10,000, flat-betting $5.00 for 10,000 spins on 1,000,000 runs:
STATS
Bust Rate: (As expected) 0.00%
Worst Performance: ($3710)
Best Performance: +$1,050
Mean Performance: ($1,351.98)
Percent Losers: 99.65%
Percent Winners: 0.33%
Percent Even: 0.02%
Interestingly, you didn't even have to be outside of the third Standard Deviation to win, although, you had to be pretty close. One in every 303 players won, approximately, so for someone to win making 10,000 flat bets under these conditions isn't anywhere close to a statistical anomaly.
I'm going to now have 1,000,000 players playing under the same conditions, except, they will all flat bet a single-number:
Stats
Bust Rate: 0.21%
Worst Performance: ($10,000)
Best Performance: +$14,260
Mean Performance: ($1,345.09)---Pretty Close to the Same-Variance is the reason.
Percent Losers: 67.40%
Percent Winners: 32.60%
That's why we say that Variance is a player's friend in a negative expectation game. Winning in this scenario, in fact, is well within the first Standard Deviation.
Now, you have a fun little tool and you can do it for yourself! I recommend always using, "Custom Paytable," and putting in probabilties and pays, seems to work better.
If you decrease Variance, then you don't stray too far from the Mean either way, if you increase Varaince, then you will stray away from the mean pretty significantly and expectedly. You notice that the Max win was more than the player's starting bankroll.
Quote:b. whenever I go to play the lottery, im best off playing 1 ticket as opposed to 20
Technically, you're best off buying zero tickets, and best off to not play a negative expectation game at all.
Secondly, you're expected to lose more money with the more tickets you buy, but covering twenty tickets instead of one will...very infinitesimally...increase your odds of winning the jackpot (assuming tickets are different) and decrease Variance, again, infinitesimally.
However, there is a subjective value to things in addition to a mathematical value. If you get the requisite amount of enjoyment from buying one ticket, or twenty tickets, know what they cost, know what the expected loss is and are willing to accept that in exchange for subjective entertainment value, go for it!
I like to play a little Video Keno for very insubstantial amounts, and I am theoretically losing about 8-10% of my bet every time.
Quote:c. the reason the casino doesn't let you play more than 1 carnival hand is because information using and cheating
Yes, information using, via EoR (Effect of Removal). There are also other factors, cheating, as you said, in the form of card-marking, switching cards from hand to hand and things of that nature. An individual might also try to get a little crafty with his chips by betting different amounts in different spots if the casino where inclined to let him, then capping or doing something like the, "Savannah," move. You should definitely read about Richard Marcus and the Savannah move if you like Roulette, just Google him, he has his own site. There are also other legitimatye forms of AP, such as Edge-Sorting, to try to get an idea what the dealer has...the more cards you can touch, the more you can attempt to sort.
Quote:d. old man that plays roulette every night has lied to me, about everything...what I have seen with my own 2 eyes....all LIES
I never stated or implied that anyone was lying, I stated that all systems will eventually fail, he has apparently just not hit, "Eventually," yet. It's possible that he never will, depending on how often he plays.
Quote:50% of the time he will win $150 (50(times out of 100) x 3(amount of chips he gets back)=$150
31% of the time he will win $0
19% of the time he will lose $171 (19(times out of 100) x 9(amount of chips he loses)=$171
His chips are $25 chips, are they not? You said he was betting $225 to win $75 which correlates to a winning Line Bet at 2 units bet after the losing Line and Corner bets have been subtracted. He wins 10 units, he loses 7 units for a net win of 3 units.
Your rounding also doesn't make sense. Using your rounding, would you also suggest he is 50% to win an Even Money bet?
Quote:so correct me if im wrong my good friend. but MY math tells me that 81% of the time he will be getting back $150, and 19% of the time he will lose $171. I basically took what you did, rounded up, and simplified it into dollars cuz I don't like decimals numbers that are not whole. but let me know if my math is (pretty much) correct. because if that's the case, ill take my chances with how old man bets...
Your estimations are fundamentally flawed. As are mine in the .027027 part, because I stopped short. Estimations are a necessary imperfection, at times, but the longer you go without dropping the end, the more precise the result.
If you wanted to use whole percentages, then the House Edge on Single-Zero Roulette is 3%, which is far worse than 2.7%.
Quote:
I know you guys are all probably thinking "man when will this guy stop?! when will he just admit he's wrong?!?".....and ive told this to my buddy who plays against me...I will admit im wrong when im DOWN money to him......and it will be a LONGGGGGGGGGGGGG time before that ever happens, it will actually NEVER happen because I don't see myself losing all that money back to him........good day to you too sir!!
As long as somebody actually demonstrates that they are reading what I am typing rather than just blindly responding, I don't mind, and you are clearly reading my posts.
Quote: paigow1986mission146:one more thing. the bet I made with my buddy, is that if you play a certain way, your odds of winning money increase, whether it be 1%....or the SMALLEST FRACTION of a percent....now with the math you illustrated here:
(6/37 * 75) + (4/37 * 0) + (4/37 * 0) + (6/37 * 75) + (4/37 * 0) + (6/37 * 75) - (7/37 * 225) = -6.081081081081084
Expected Return of -$6.08
-225 * .027027 = -6.081074999999999
wouldn't I be right to win the bet?? I mean if expected return is 6.08108 on the way old man plays as opposed to 6.08107, can I collect on my bet? If I had made that bet with you, and I said "even the smallest miniscule fraction of a percent", even though it is ALMOST identical expected value, wouldn't I still be correct??? at least give me THAT MUCH.
Do you mean in the long run, or over a certain number of attempts? If the latter, then you want to maximize Variance as we have discussed and as I demonstrated in my post immediately prior to this one, depending on the number of attempts. If it is only for one attempt, then you'd want to minimize Varaince by betting 35 different individual numbers at once, to give the best chance of winning, though nothing affects the EV.
You cannot collect on your bet based on those equations, the second equation was merely cut off early whereas the first equation simply went as far as the calculator goes.
-225 * 1/37 = 6.081081081081082
Which is another rounding error, due to the top part being broken up into segments, so certain numbers way to the right of the decimal place get dropped off more often, apparently, with wherever the calculator rounds.
Taken to a greater decimal place in all instances, it'd be exactly the same.
Quote:thanks for putting up with me guys, I know I can be frustrating, but I stand behind what I know and what ive seen, and I honestly refuse to believe that I have been getting lucky these last 2 years and all these hands later. it just doesn't make sense...
EDIT: I will be sure to read your short stories and tell you what I think about them in the thread. I love short stories and gambling, so this should be delightful
You're not really frustrating, I was just bothered by the sarcasm coming from someone with an (no offense) inferior understanding of the Math behind what we were saying. I really mean no offense, I'd say that a simple majority of the Members here have better Math skills than I do, which is why they analyze Video Poker games and I go for the low-hanging fruit of betting system Math! I also don't know shit about computer programming, and the do simulations using Excel, which I can't even begin to understand.
Again, getting, "Lucky," makes perfect sense. Your sample size of bets is simply limited enough that not every single individual person to play that kind of sample size will necessarily lose. There comes a point, and it's possible that nobody ever reaches that point of absolute necessity in their lifetime, that every single individual must lose, because the expected value is negative.
The, "Long run," is also a tough thing to quantify. In a negative expectation game, some might consider the long run to be when every single person to make x attempts loses everything they started with, but again, that doesn't strike me as a pragmatic definition because (for many games) an individual will simply never play that long.
Let's go back to the Powerball and posit that someone hits the jackpot, because people occasionally do. Okay, assuming the person has been playing a $2.00 ticket for every drawing since the ticket began to cost $2.00, (technically, it's a different game) if you have a person who is determined to continue playing this way...even after winning the Progressive Jackpot...that person will never win long enough to lose all of that money won in Powerball tickets. What are there? 104 drawings per year for $208 wagered per year?
Can't happen.
I tend to quantify the long run of a certain system or a certain bet as being the point at which less than 1% of all particpants (or simulation runs) are even or ahead on that bet or system. I think it is very possible, for example, that someone could actually manage to bet 100,000 spins at the Roulette wheel...just most people won't.
now you got me doing something I didn't want to do, using decimal points and numbers that are not whole. but here's the math I came up with assuming he's betting $25 chips, 9 chips at a time the way I described in the previous post:
18 numbers will win $75(18/37=0.4864864864864865)
12 numbers will win $0(12/37=0.3243243243243243)
7 numbers will lose $225(7/37=0.1891891891891892)
so with that said, I simply multiplied the amount of money by the decimal points and came up with this:
$75*0.4864864864864865=36.48648648648649
$0*0.3243243243243243=0
$-225*0.1891891891891892=-42.56756756756757
now while im NOT arguing that its still negative expectation and you're not favored to win in the long run, I still find it hard to believe that your odds of winning money do not win as opposed to you saying in the earlier post that the old man is better off betting red/black or odd/even....that couldn't be further from the truth because when you look at the big picture:
18 numbers will get him back $300 (48.6% of the time)
12 numbers will get him back $225 (32.4% of the time)
7 numbers will get him to lose $225 (18.9% of the time)
so if he's getting money back on 30 of the 37 numbers(81% or 0.8108108108108108 of the time), and only losing on 7 numbers (18.9% or 0.1891891891891892 of the time), how in the world would it make more sense for him to play those even money bets? im sure he has thought this through before. you have to say that his odds of winning money are increased JUST A FRACTION as opposed to if he was betting even money bets (in the long run).
I don't think youre factoring in that he gets MONEY BACK, sure he breaks even on those corner bets, but he's still in the game, as opposed to even money bets, where he just straight up wins, or loses. those even money bets are the worst bets in the house ESPECIALLY on double zero wheels. not only that, but here's the way I look at it (personally):
if 81% of the time he is projected to GET BACK on average $262.50 (300+225=525/2), and 19% of the time he is projected to lose $225...then how have his odds not increased as opposed to playing even money bets? where he is favored to get back $450 on a bet where he is only (48.6% or 0.4864864864864865) to win?? I would like to think that in the long run, not only will I last longer getting back $262.50, 81% of the time, my odds of winning money have increased (even if its the tiniest fraction of a percent).
once again, I know I kind of strayed away from my original post about how playing more than 1 carnival hand increases your chances, and although I agree and have gone through ALL THE MATH you guys have done, I still think you're forgetting about the variables of the bonus bets and we would need some sort of einstein to figure out what the odds on hitting certain hands, certain bonus's, with certain bets, in the long run. and that's why I chose this roulette bet as an example, because there are no bonus's involved, yet, I still think with this strategy, you're way better off doing this as opposed to betting even money numbers, or even the 1st and 2nd 12 bets. ESPECIALLY when you factor in the martingale system for this old man, because he's like bill gates, he's got infinite amounts of money....
once again, I appreciate your patience and time, and would really like for you to get back to me on how to use that website for JUST BONUS betting so I can show it to my buddy as well...
Quote: Mission146As long as somebody actually demonstrates that they are reading what I am typing rather than just blindly responding, I don't mind, and you are clearly reading my posts.
I don't think he clearly adsorbed all the points in my posts, I feel your mathy posts are a bit harder to read than mine were (but then again, everyone's own math looks better to them :P), he called my own reading skills "shit" in this thread even though I have done a lot to refute his observations down to "pure luck" (and being lucky is a great thing!!!), but I don't feel that I have misinterpreted anything, so I dunno what I am doing wrong. When multiple people say you are "wrong", doesn't someone begin the seed of doubt? Does he need Mike to come in here to agree with us to make it even more convincing?
Quote: tringlomaneI don't think he clearly adsorbed all the points in my posts, I feel your mathy posts are a bit harder to read than mine were (but then again, everyone's own math looks better to them :P), he called my own reading skills "shit" in this thread even though I have done a lot to refute his observations down to "pure luck" (and being lucky is a great thing!!!), but I don't feel that I have misinterpreted anything, so I dunno what I am doing wrong. When multiple people say you are "wrong", doesn't someone begin the seed of doubt? Does he need Mike to come in here to agree with us to make it even more convincing?
Your Math is certainly the more appropriate way to do it. I do my long-form Math the way I do mainly because I try to open things up by verbally (i.e. textually) explaining what it is that I am about to do, why I am doing it, and then doing it. I think that your Math is the more proper way to do it, to be sure, but I think my Math might be just slightly more understandable to a third-party who has no idea what is going on.
However, I could be wrong.
But, your Math is definitely better and more concise, just explaining why mine is not concise, deliberately so.
As far as the seed of doubt is concerned, he has recently admitted that our Math is correct. I do see your point about prior posts, though.
Quote: Mission146
But, your Math is definitely better and more concise, just explaining why mine is not concise, deliberately so.
Eh, you're pretty thorough too because you're a lot like me. I generally insist on showing what the hell I do because I never like to assume people will see where I am going by skipping steps that are more trivial to those familiar with the calculations. But you do like to post all the digits of the calculator in every step since copying/pasting is easier, obviously. Better to keep decimal places 5+ to yourself to continue calculating with, especially if you're going to show a bunch of steps. :)
Quote: paigow1986mission146:first let me start by saying, the link you provided about the beating bonus's thing, I think is AWESOME, however, I don't really know how to use it in the sense of me ONLY WANTING TO BET PAIRS PLUS. I would love to compute what would happen over 100,000 hands for one person betting $5 on 6 hands, as opposed to one person betting $30 on 1 hand. as far as I can see on that website, it looks like its playing straight up antes for all the games with no bonus's included (which im sure im wrong about because the website is called beating bonus's simulator).
Pairs Plus bet would be really simple. Just put in the probabilities and the paytable and simply do six individual runs and record the results for each. Since any EoR is irrelevant as not being known until the cards are dealt (i.e. all cards are dealt from the top) doing six individual runs of one separately is the same thing as doing one run of someone playing six hands. I suppose you could also do six runs and compare the average loss to the average loss for one run, or one million runs, whichever you felt more appropriate.
Quote:now you got me doing something I didn't want to do, using decimal points and numbers that are not whole. but here's the math I came up with assuming he's betting $25 chips, 9 chips at a time the way I described in the previous post:
18 numbers will win $75(18/37=0.4864864864864865)
12 numbers will win $0(12/37=0.3243243243243243)
7 numbers will lose $225(7/37=0.1891891891891892)
so with that said, I simply multiplied the amount of money by the decimal points and came up with this:
$75*0.4864864864864865=36.48648648648649
$0*0.3243243243243243=0
$-225*0.1891891891891892=-42.56756756756757
That's very well done and exactly right! That represents the long-term expectation of the bet, if you take the negative value and add to it the positive value:
-42.56756756756757 + 36.48648648648649 = -6.08108108108
Quote:now while im NOT arguing that its still negative expectation and you're not favored to win in the long run, I still find it hard to believe that your odds of winning money do not win as opposed to you saying in the earlier post that the old man is better off betting red/black or odd/even....that couldn't be further from the truth because when you look at the big picture:
18 numbers will get him back $300 (48.6% of the time)
12 numbers will get him back $225 (32.4% of the time)
7 numbers will get him to lose $225 (18.9% of the time)
so if he's getting money back on 30 of the 37 numbers(81% or 0.8108108108108108 of the time), and only losing on 7 numbers (18.9% or 0.1891891891891892 of the time), how in the world would it make more sense for him to play those even money bets? im sure he has thought this through before. you have to say that his odds of winning money are increased JUST A FRACTION as opposed to if he was betting even money bets (in the long run).
I'm not sure about this, "Get him back," way of expressing it. The simplest way to put it is that he wins $75, Pushes or loses $225. In terms of expressing what happens, I wouldn't really be interested in what he gets back, just in what he wins or loses.
I wanted to go ahead and put this in the simulator, but I couldn't figure out how to get it to do what I am asking. It kept returning a ridiculously high House Edge, that's one thing you want to look for, to make sure that the House Edge always remains correct on that simulator.
Quote:I don't think youre factoring in that he gets MONEY BACK, sure he breaks even on those corner bets, but he's still in the game, as opposed to even money bets, where he just straight up wins, or loses. those even money bets are the worst bets in the house ESPECIALLY on double zero wheels. not only that, but here's the way I look at it (personally):
if 81% of the time he is projected to GET BACK on average $262.50 (300+225=525/2), and 19% of the time he is projected to lose $225...then how have his odds not increased as opposed to playing even money bets? where he is favored to get back $450 on a bet where he is only (48.6% or 0.4864864864864865) to win?? I would like to think that in the long run, not only will I last longer getting back $262.50, 81% of the time, my odds of winning money have increased (even if its the tiniest fraction of a percent).
That's not the right way to state or determine what he is going to get back on average. Intuitively, you can tell that is incorrect because it is a negative expectation game, so he cannot be projected to get back more than that which he bets. The first figures above are correct, he is projected to get back the sum of his action less the sum of his action multiplied by .027027027... In this case, he is projected to get back $225 - 6.08108108108.
That's why I looked at the amount he will profit, on average, given a win vs. the amount that he will lose, on average, given a loss. You would then multiply that by the probability of winning and the probability of losing to get your Expected Value, which is the same. I think I ultimiately ended up doing that three different ways, in this example.
Quote:once again, I know I kind of strayed away from my original post about how playing more than 1 carnival hand increases your chances, and although I agree and have gone through ALL THE MATH you guys have done, I still think you're forgetting about the variables of the bonus bets and we would need some sort of einstein to figure out what the odds on hitting certain hands, certain bonus's, with certain bets, in the long run. and that's why I chose this roulette bet as an example, because there are no bonus's involved, yet, I still think with this strategy, you're way better off doing this as opposed to betting even money numbers, or even the 1st and 2nd 12 bets. ESPECIALLY when you factor in the martingale system for this old man, because he's like bill gates, he's got infinite amounts of money....
once again, I appreciate your patience and time, and would really like for you to get back to me on how to use that website for JUST BONUS betting so I can show it to my buddy as well...
The probabilities of hitting certain hands have already been completed. The reason is because, for the Pair Plus bet, for example, there is no EoR. (Effect of Removal) In the long run, it will be as though all hands are dealt from the top, because you're just betting blindly.
mission146: as far you saying "That's not the right way to state or determine what he is going to get back on average. Intuitively, you can tell that is incorrect because it is a negative expectation game, so he cannot be projected to get back more than that which he bets." i couldn't disagree more. one bet will either win or lose, old man betting guarantees he's getting money back to play for his next turn, that's GOTTA count for something. once again, i know its a negative expectation, and im NOT saying that the way he is playing will make him overcome the house edge, but im saying not only will he get to play for longer, but it gives him a chance to make more money because he's playing for longer and should get back money 81% of the time. i know you've heard patrons in the casino say this ALL the time, because i hear it over 1000 times a night "a push is a win", and in that sense, even though he's pushing 31% of the time, he's still getting money back, and that's a world of difference as opposed to betting the even money bets.
while i do agree that all the math you and tringlomane have done is 100% correct, i still feel like many variables are missing in regards to bonus hands and bonus betting. i haven't done math since i was in college and it was pre-calc and its certainly been a LONG time, but if you're trying to figure out odds on multiple hands like that where crazy bonus's are involved (especially progressives), wouldn't you have to do some sort of binomial equation? i think the math you guys are doing is cut and dry as far as betting multiple hands, its pretty much taking numbers, multiplying them all up, then dividing them by the amount of numbers you just multiplied, and i think we're missing something.
i really wish someone would tell us how to work these numbers into that website you showed me. i just want to see what it would be if someone were to play 6 hands at $5 (bonus's only) as opposed to 1 hand at $30 (bonus only). i would love to see the outcome, and if someone out here on this website, knows how to work it, and shows me how to input those numbers in over 100,000 runs, and shows that its EXACTLY THE SAME (without the slightest increase in odds), then that too will make me admit i was mistaken, and say i am wrong, because i can never really argue with a computer/calculator.
Quote: tringlomaneEh, you're pretty thorough too because you're a lot like me. I generally insist on showing what the hell I do because I never like to assume people will see where I am going by skipping steps that are more trivial to those familiar with the calculations. But you do like to post all the digits of the calculator in every step since copying/pasting is easier, obviously. Better to keep decimal places 5+ to yourself to continue calculating with, especially if you're going to show a bunch of steps. :)
Busted!
Yeah, I use the scientific calculator at picalc.com, so I just copy/paste.
Quote: paigow1986
while i do agree that all the math you and tringlomane have done is 100% correct, i still feel like many variables are missing in regards to bonus hands and bonus betting. i haven't done math since i was in college and it was pre-calc and its certainly been a LONG time, but if you're trying to figure out odds on multiple hands like that where crazy bonus's are involved (especially progressives), wouldn't you have to do some sort of binomial equation? i think the math you guys are doing is cut and dry as far as betting multiple hands, its pretty much taking numbers, multiplying them all up, then dividing them by the amount of numbers you just multiplied, and i think we're missing something.
i really wish someone would tell us how to work these numbers into that website you showed me. i just want to see what it would be if someone were to play 6 hands at $5 (bonus's only) as opposed to 1 hand at $30 (bonus only). i would love to see the outcome, and if someone out here on this website, knows how to work it, and shows me how to input those numbers in over 100,000 runs, and shows that its EXACTLY THE SAME (without the slightest increase in odds), then that too will make me admit i was mistaken, and say i am wrong, because i can never really argue with a computer/calculator.
The Progressives are covered by the same rule that applies to lottery tickets. The odds of you winning the Progressive in any one round, by playing multiple hands, are improved because you are playing multiple hands. However, the odds of winning the Progressive on any individual hand remain the same, as does the Expected Value of both any one hand and all hands combined * amount bet.
Perhaps someone will come around with a different simulator, or someone that knows how to do Excel. The simulator to which I linked you only does one hand at a time.
Yes I would like it to remain tight friends, so I worry. I don't want to be throwing my hot dog down a hallway.Quote: paigow1986axelwolf: im glad you worry about my anus and how unmolested it is...but when we play poker tourneys we play welfare games...when I play against my buddy and he's the house, im looking to crack him to prove my point, and so far im almost $10k richer, which is probably $9,999 more than you have to your name
I'm not sure it matters who the banker is.
I would never state how much money I have or don't have on a message board, especially how much i have won illegally
I wish you continued luck. I have a feeling if you all are really are up as much as you are saying on him, he is doing something wrong. Perhaps improper shuffling, incorrect payouts, missing cards, extra cards.....who knows?
somethings not adding up and its probably the entire story.
Quote: Mission146
Perhaps someone will come around with a different simulator, or someone that knows how to do Excel. The simulator to which I linked you only does one hand at a time.
I'm good with Excel, but I don't think the question he wants answered would be good for it. You pretty much need to code a computer simulation. But since OP himself has suggested that I should to look for a job instead, I'm pretty much done here. Good luck.
axelwolf: as I have mentioned before, not only are we doing everything right, but we are doing everything in his favor:
a. get the lowest paytables on wizard of odds
b. have to pay commission on pai gow
c. don't have the option of banking at all on pai gow
d. house wins on all pushes on pai gow
and yeah, you're probably right about something not adding up, like my entire story....I completely made all of this up and was doing this to be a troll on this message board....you've got me totally figured out bro.
maybe you're just upset that I just made an account on here a few days ago and my ONE thread has more views and more replies than all 16 threads you've started in the last year, maybe you're totally jealous of me because im getting all the attention and you're not?
ok so maybe I trolled you on that last paragraph, sue me.
(I only said sue me because I noticed one of the threads you started had something to do with lawyers and court lolz)
trolledx2
I read this initially several weeks ago, and I'm going to stick my neck out as an experienced paigow player but non-mathematician and say I agree with the premise that 6-$5 bonus bets are better value than 1 $30 bet. I'm not going back to read what exactly has been said one way or the other, just that the following is true (and I'm explaining in greater detail than you likely need, but I expect to get this argument picked apart, and so I'm explaining my reasons for agreeing);
1. One player @30, assuming no other players, will not generate an envy bonus. 6@5 will receive an envy bonus, at a 5x value, for 4OAK above, and that bonus will be collected by the same person who collects the large odds bet. This is maximized at the 5 level, and the second reason to only play 5, not more or less: envy bonuses are a flat rate, not an odds pay based on the size of the bonus bet above 5.
2. One player is benefiting from all 6 bets that has a Hit Frequency of 19.1944% (source: WoO most-used Paytable for Fortune PaiGow), which is larger than the 16.66% share per bet of 6 bonus bets; in other words, you will virtually always have a hedge on, with bonus pays on a 2 to 1 or higher basis. You will never lose more than 50% of the value of your bonus bets under this scenario (bet 6, retain 3 with the lowest payoff of 2 to 1 on a straight) in the long run, where as a single spot player, you will lose this bet 4 out of 5 times. This increases, as a single player covering 6 bets, your Hit Frequency on this bet to over 100%, but decreases your return inversely (you're not receiving 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 or whatever on the full amount, but only 1/6 of it per bonus hand).
3. The joker will appear in 6 hands controlled by you, only 1 by the dealer, not 6 separate players, on any given deal. Your chances are slightly less than 6 out of 7 of holding the joker, because 4 cards are burned, and it may be in the discards. The joker's pay effect is already calculated in 2 above, so this may be redundant to the calculation, but joker-bearing hands are significantly more likely to result in a bonus pay, and you have it slightly more than 80% of the time, where a single player has it only 13.5% of the time. With a single player receiving the value of 6 bets instead of one, even though larger, having that much use of the joker has GOT to improve your value on splitting up the bets. (BTW, these are all reasons why I insist on playing 2 hands wherever I go; except for extreme negative variance days, one hand tends to pay for the other and allows me all of these advantages on a lesser scale; I don't care if they make me play 2x minimums; this is how I want to play, and I tend to lose slowly while waiting for the big score.)
It would be my OPINION, without the math skills to back it up, that you take a significant carve of the Fortune bet @7.77% HE - which does NOT include the Envy Bonus - that's the main HE improvement point - with each hand you are allowed to play in addition to the first. Whether at its extreme (which you have here) it crosses into +EV territory, I doubt (though it could), but a team of 3 playing 2 with pre-agreed strategy and bet sizes and pooling afterwards would have the same effective edge you describe for a single player, and that's "allowed" in most casinos (3 people playing together on 2 hands each, I mean; no idea if a casino would back a team off for being obvious about this). The reason I doubt the +EV value is because it's so evident that it must've been tested and/or tried in the 20-odd years that bet's been offered.
In my experience, there are many people, especially Asian consortiums in Biloxi, who arrive and depart as groups, playing similar strategy to each other with multiple hands; though at other times a similar group will have one player making big bets on a positive progression system, with all of them standing behind. Having watched them play both ways, I make some assumptions about the level of their expertise, which is often extremely high, and have learned a lot about game strategy from them. If your underlying plan were +EV, they would be all over it. Instead, many of them bet black, even purple, and don't even try the sidebet for 5 bucks. I ALWAYS bet it, but that's my happy place at PGP; always looking for the 7SFnoJ hand, even at -EV. Almost had it once in clubs - the infamous "one-away".
it can not be a coincidence that when my friend is the house, and I play multiple hands against him, I win over 80% of the time (we're keeping count of everything)....yet...when I go to the casino to play single handed carnival games, I LOSE EVERYTIME. this cannot be possible. I started with $100, 3 months ago, and got it up to over $6000. of ALL the times I went to the casino, I took at least $300-400, and would lose almost 90% of the time. people on this forum will say "oh you got a horseshoe up your ass" ...."you need to play more hands in order to get a true count on what your odds are"... and my personal favorite from axelwolf "YOU'RE MAKING ALL THIS UP".....its just ridiculous...
I'm saying that I think there's an advantage to be had, but not a +EV, yes. I am not a mathematician, and I could be wrong. But I laid out why I think so, and logically, it should be true for the reasons I listed. That doesn't mean it is.
In three card, the normal strategy is to raise with Q-6-4 or higher (or is is Q-7-3?). If you have a hand with AKQ in it, you would adjust your strategy and might raise on a lower hand because you know that three high cards are out.
There are other games where knowledge of cards in play gives people a slightly higher HA. So, yeah, if you are playing more than one hand, in most carnival games, that knowledge of what's in the other hands and your ability to change your strategy accordingly has the potential to skew the HA in your favor.
the game is ultimate texas hold em. my friend lets me play JUST the bonus's, no ante's at all. he runs out the flop, and its K K K...right off the bat im a winner on ALL my bets...ofcourse, the 4th K hits on the river, so there is quads on the board, that's a 30 to 1 payout. now, had I been betting ONE hand at $30, I would of won $900 ($30x30=$900)....but because im lowering my variance, and betting SIX hands at FIVE dollars.....well lets see how this works...$5x30=150, $5x30=150, $5x30=150, $5x30=150, $5x30=150 and $5x30=150....WHO WOULD OF GUESSED?!?! I STILL won $900!! and had I lost, I would of STILL lost only $30. you're going to say to me "but the flop doesn't always work like that, what if its garbage". I can tell you to scroll up and look at my response to that, but ill explain it again. if the board reads 3 4 5 6 Q, rainbow, I STILL have a chance of getting a straight with a 2 or a 7, right? pretty much what everyone on this forum is telling me that if I get 6 hands (12 cards), I have the same odds of winning money if I was playing 1 hand and getting TWO cards....and like ive said 100 times before...that is such a bold statement that no one can ever get me to believe unless they are certified mathematicians willing to do REAL MATH (such as binomials) to figure out how my odds change....not a "chemical engineer", a gay wolf obsessing over my anus, or even the administrator of this website will get me to believe that unless they do some REAL MATH where they take all the variables into consideration.
I also don't know if you read the part where ive been playing this with my buddy and he's been the house and he's down nearly $10,000 over the last 2 years. call it luck, call it a coincidence, hell, gaywolf called it a LIE...but I urge you to try it at home, and see how much more it plays into your favor...I don't make this shit up...
Quote: paigow1986boymimbo: you must not have gone through and read this thread in its entirety. everyone here pretty much knows that using knowledge from other cards gives you a slight advantage, im not talking about that though. im talking about the fact that people can tell me playing 6 bonus's at $5, is the same thing as playing 1 bonus at $30. I will have people tell me "less variance with the 6 hands, you are betting less, so you will last longer, but you will win more with the $30"......well because you haven't read this entire thread...ask me how that saying works in this scenario...I've used the following example before, because it has actually happened while playing with my buddy:
the game is ultimate texas hold em. my friend lets me play JUST the bonus's, no ante's at all. he runs out the flop, and its K K K...right off the bat im a winner on ALL my bets...ofcourse, the 4th K hits on the river, so there is quads on the board, that's a 30 to 1 payout. now, had I been betting ONE hand at $30, I would of won $900 ($30x30=$900)....but because im lowering my variance, and betting SIX hands at FIVE dollars.....well lets see how this works...$5x30=150, $5x30=150, $5x30=150, $5x30=150, $5x30=150 and $5x30=150....WHO WOULD OF GUESSED?!?! I STILL won $900!! and had I lost, I would of STILL lost only $30. you're going to say to me "but the flop doesn't always work like that, what if its garbage". I can tell you to scroll up and look at my response to that, but ill explain it again. if the board reads 3 4 5 6 Q, rainbow, I STILL have a chance of getting a straight with a 2 or a 7, right? pretty much what everyone on this forum is telling me that if I get 6 hands (12 cards), I have the same odds of winning money if I was playing 1 hand and getting TWO cards....and like ive said 100 times before...that is such a bold statement that no one can ever get me to believe unless they are certified mathematicians willing to do REAL MATH (such as binomials) to figure out how my odds change....not a "chemical engineer", a gay wolf obsessing over my anus, or even the administrator of this website will get me to believe that unless they do some REAL MATH where they take all the variables into consideration.
I also don't know if you read the part where ive been playing this with my buddy and he's been the house and he's down nearly $10,000 over the last 2 years. call it luck, call it a coincidence, hell, gaywolf called it a LIE...but I urge you to try it at home, and see how much more it plays into your favor...I don't make this shit up...
Do you beleive there is a gay wolf watching over your anus? May I direct you to the local mental health authorities?
Now to the question at hand:
- the odds of you pulling a 2 and/or 7 is 32.08% on one hand for an EV of $27.74 assuming the straight pays 5 units.
- if you are playing 2 $15 bonuses, guess what, your EV is still $27.74 assuming the straight pays 5 units. The odds of winning 0 hands is 45.2339%, 1 hand 45.3775%, and 2 hands 9.3885%
This will extend out to all hands.
Quote: paigow1986
...the game is ultimate texas hold em. my friend lets me play JUST the bonus's, no ante's at all....
paigow1986,
I guess I should have gone back and read more. I thought this was about the paigow bonus based on your name and what i did read; if it's only UTH, I have no answer that will satisfy you, because on the trips bet, all hands are depending on the flop equally, not holding bonus within their own hand. It's possible they will mathematically hedge each other in UTH to a small extent if your holding improves the flop to a bonus, but probably not enough to matter in the long run. I think, in UTH, it's a wash. I stand by what I said about PaiGow fortune bonuses, however. Sorry for the misunderstanding, but IMO the one does not imply the other (as in your theory does not apply equally to all bonus bets on all games).
beachbumbabs: if according to you, your odds increase in the game of pai gow, but NOT any other carnival games, then everything that everyone has been saying on this forum MUST be false...because if what you're saying is true, that your odds of winning money increase only in the game of pai gow, then everyone else on this forum will scream bloody murder and say "ITS ALL THE SAME!! 3 CARD, 4 CARD, PAI GOW, UTH, ALL THE SAME!!"....what im trying to say is...you cant have it both ways...if I play more hands WITHOUT risking more money (6 hands at $5 vs. 1 hand at $30) on ONLY bonus bets...then how is that any different than 3 card? or 4 card? or uth? where I live, ALL those games have big progressives on them that can hit...and all im trying to say, is that the more hands you play, the more of a chance you have of getting that big progressive, whether its the A K Q suited on 3 card, or the 4 of a kind of 4 card, or the royal flush on UTH, or the 7 card straight flush on pai gow. they are ALL the biggest progressives you hit, and according to pretty much everyone on this forum, it doesn't matter whether you play 1, or 2, or 6....your odds of winning money stay the same...
somewhere on this forum I told G71 "I guess it makes more sense to only play 1 lottery number than to play 20, everyone has been lied to their entire lives, their odds of winning don't increase at ALL!!" and his response to me was "yes playing 1 is better than playing 20"....so I don't know who is trolling and who is for real anymore....
If you want, I could extend out that to $10 over 3 hands or $5 over six hands. That's taking into account a single bet and card removal. The expected value is exactly the same no matter how many hands you bet on a STATIC bonus. When you play more than one hand on an optional bet that takes into account play differences based on what is in your hand (such as the play bet in 3C, Caribbean, LIR), you change your strategy based on the composition of the other known hands.
And please, stop being so rude. Some of us are actually here to help and our work, and time, are not free. You're welcome to go to university for a couple of years or take a few statistics classes or read some combinatorial theory on the internet or write a simulation and do it on your own.
But I can make it real simple for you. If each person sitting at a table has a HE playing a single bet, name one single math theory that shows that the odds change if the identity of the person behind the bet changes. That is, if each player has a 2% HE on a particular bet playing one spot, then the identity of the person behind the spot doesn't matter: the house edge per position doesn't change. Therefore, six $5 bets has the same house edge as one $30 bet.
A polite request goes a long way.
what you typed up isn't anywhere CLOSE to what im talking about, you have 0 credibility, at least mission146 and tringlomane took the time to break down all the math they did...you came out with: "THIS IS YOUR EV!! THIS IS HOW MUCH YOU'LL MAKE!! THIS IS WHY YOUR ODDS CANNOT INCREASE?? GET IT??" that's laughable...after EVERYTHING we have all posted....you come up with THAT?!?
you're one of those guys that is gonna tell me that playing 1 lottery number is the same as 20...right? I mean the guy playing 1 has just as much of a chance to hit that jackpot as the guy with 20....everyone's been lied to their entire lives....be sure to tell that to the lottery clerk
as a matter of fact, if you're ever involved in a raffle drawing, and you have more than 1 ticket....throw the rest of your tickets away and just keep that 1...it has just as much a chance of getting picked out as if you had thrown 20 in that drum....I mean that only makes sense...RIGHT?
scroll up, read what I said about the roulette formula...and THEN get back to me....because roulette is a simple game of mathematics, no other variables such as 3 of a kind here, or 4 of a kind there, or royal flush on that hand....just simple math....so go ahead an read it (if its not too much for you, you seem to have a small attention span). better yet...respond to beachbums post as well!! im not the only one that has their opinion on this...so feel free
btw, my post(about roulette) is on page 7, and beachbumsbams post(about how playing more than 1 hand does increase your odds) is on page 8...so feel free...READ...THEN RESPOND....not just skim through....READ. THEN RESPOND.. thank youuuuu
hows that for polite?
the reason I say it's a mathematical wash for most games in the long run, is that your hit frequency changes in direct proportion to the amount you spread. if you bet $5 on 6 spots, you hit 6 times as often but only for 1/6 of the amount. 6 x 1/6 is one. In the long run. Virtually all of the other carnival games except PaiGow (Caribbean Stud is another exception) depend on a common hand (they share values) for all or part of any bonus pay, so all hands have an equal chance of hitting in the long run.
In the short run, using your 4OAK K's on the board for example, the pay is the same in the short run whether it's 5x6 bets or 1x30 bets. If one player has the K to make the 4OAK, then you get 5 - 3OAK pays plus 1- 4OAK pay, so your 30 is worth more because the 4th K was in one of your hands. In the short run. In the long run, that will happen to each of the six hands in turn an equal amount of times, which in the long run (because you're only collecting 1/6 of the extra each time) will equal your having bet the 30 on one spot. (which is what math guys calculate here, because that's mostly what matters to the casino, their long-term exposure. However, the short run has killed more than one good new game when a very small chance jackpot hits early or twice; that's what killed PaiGowMania in Harrah's KC, for example; the 5 Aces - top hand- got hit twice in 12 days there a few years back ).
No doubt your point is valid about hitting the jackpot hand by playing 6x5 rather than 1x30; but the improvement in your odds on a 1 in 31,250 hand (for the UTH trips royal pay) is insignificant, and it's an odds bet, so you've given up 5/6 of the amount (at least up to the table aggregate limit) for spreading your bet unless it's all on the board, where you would get the same pay for either setup. Again, in the long run, each of those 6 hands will have hit the royal some number of times, which washes out your strategy.
In the long run. I really think that's where you and the math people are talking past each other. If you've played 10,000 hands against your buddy for example, which is a lot even at 6 hands/deal, you're still only 1/3 of the way to your first royal in any of the hands by the odds. The odds set for live play are based on simulating millions, even billions of hands, to verify the casino's long run exposure, after calculating mathematically the chances by all possible combinations.
PaiGow is different because a) the Envy bonus only gets awarded when more than 1 hand is in play; b) the bonus is contained entirely in each hand; with no shared values, in a short-term strategy (like my lifetime) I will see more bonuses playing 2 hands than I would otherwise; in the long run, it averages out. The chance of my seeing the big jackpot hand is only increased a tiny bit overall, really insignificantly, but from my (the player's) perspective, it's doubled. Maybe a good analogy is the forest and the trees.
all I can say to that is.......thank you!
Quote: boymimboYeah, I have a degree in Physics and Astronomy from the University of Toronto and understand the binomial theory quite well and the math quite well. I simplified it as much as possible. It doesn't matter who the person is behind the bet. If you bet all spots or one spot, the house edge remains the same, and your expected loss is your total bet x the house edge. Period. Explain to me how if could not possibly be anything else.
boymimbo,
I'm not sure if you want me to answer you, since we seem to be in a two-winged conversation, but everything you've said including this post is correct to the best of my knowledge (qualified only because of my limits, not yours). However, you're speaking from the long-term, house perspective. He's speaking from his personal, short-term perspective. From his perspective, I think he has a point.
Let's say the question changed in one variable: he bets $5 on a single spot on the same game, instead of playing one day a week for 2 hours, he plays 6 days a week for 2 hours. Does that not increase HIS chances of a jackpot win? If so (and I maintain that it does), how is that mathematically different from playing 6 hands for two hours once a week? He doesn't seem to care about the aggregate amount; he seems to care about the hit frequency, though earlier his argument was that he would "make more money" doing it that way. In the long run, he won't make more money; he'll make the same. The math says so. But he'll hit a jackpot "more" often (almost never versus never) with good variance and more hands played in the short run, which is what he's doing.
so please explain to me what it is exactly you disagree with me on....I NEVER said that you overcome HE/EV so that its all in your favor...all im saying, is that your odds of winning money increase when 1 individual to plays multiple hands, as opposed to 1 individual playing 1 hand....on AVERAGE, you will be getting more money back as opposed to just winning, losing, or pushing with one hand. you get 42 cards in pai gow, as opposed to 7 cards...please make it make sense to ME how you're right about this....thanks!!!
Quote: paigow1986
so please explain to me what it is exactly you disagree with me on....I NEVER said that you overcome HE/EV so that its all in your favor...all im saying, is that your odds of winning money increase when 1 individual to plays multiple hands, as opposed to 1 individual playing 1 hand....on AVERAGE, you will be getting more money back as opposed to just winning, losing, or pushing with one hand. you get 42 cards in pai gow, as opposed to 7 cards...please make it make sense to ME how you're right about this....thanks!!!
No your confusing odds of winning with expected value. Lets take your raffle example. Say hundred tickets in the barrel, going with fixed number of tickets since its easier that way. Say it pays 100 dollars and each ticket is 2 dollars. You buy 1 ticket you have a 1/100 chance of winning and will win 100 dollars but it cost you two dollars to play so you 1/100(100)-2=-1 that is your expected value. Now instead say you bought 45 tickets you have a 9/20 chance of winning your expected value is 45/100(100)-2(45)=-45 or -1 dollar per ticket. Increasing your odds of winning is not the same as increasing the expected value. Hell in the degenerate case of a raffle I could buy all 100 tickets I'm guaranteed to win but I've spent 200 to win 100 and thus lost 1 dollar per ticket just as the numbers say.
So after that simple example one could move on to the more complex examples like card games but they play out exactly the same. You increase your chance of winning but do nothing to affect the expected value
and not only that, but its the PROGRESSIVES...where im from every single carnival game at the casinos has a progressive, and its a minimum bet of $5, so that you're going to bet the $5 no matter what....what sense does it make for everyone on this forum to tell me that my odds of winning money do not change AT ALL when I go from playing 1 hand to 6....its mind blowing!
just look back at beachbumbabs example when he/she was talking about paigow....when you are playing paigow, and you get the joker, I think everyone can agree that the joker improves your hand. well, if I get 42 cards, and the dealer gets 7, who has got the better chance of getting the joker? WAIT WAIT, LET ME GUESS, my "expected value" stays the same LOLZ.
cmon guys. I came to this site and posted on these forums because I thought I was dealing with mathematicians here....looks like im the smartest guy on the website. they should make ME an admin!
Quote: paigow1986and not only that, but its the PROGRESSIVES...where im from every single carnival game at the casinos has a progressive, and its a minimum bet of $5, so that you're going to bet the $5 no matter what....what sense does it make for everyone on this forum to tell me that my odds of winning money do not change AT ALL when I go from playing 1 hand to 6....its mind blowing!
just look back at beachbumbabs example when he/she was talking about paigow....when you are playing paigow, and you get the joker, I think everyone can agree that the joker improves your hand. well, if I get 42 cards, and the dealer gets 7, who has got the better chance of getting the joker? WAIT WAIT, LET ME GUESS, my "expected value" stays the same LOLZ.
cmon guys. I came to this site and posted on these forums because I thought I was dealing with mathematicians here....looks like im the smartest guy on the website. they should make ME an admin!
I think you're not understanding what you've been told.
If you play a single hand for $30, you will either lose $30, push, or win $30 according to the single-hand probabilities for the game.
If you play six hands for $5 each against a single dealer hand, you have a distribution of net outcomes ranging from -$30 to +$30 in $5 increments. You could push one and lose five for a net of -$25. You could win four, push one, and lose one for a net of +$15. The probabilities for each possible net outcome are calculable, but it's not as simple as using a binomial expansion on the single-hand distribution. A binomial doesn't even apply anyway because the single-hand case is ternary, not binary, but the real issue is that there will be strong correlation between the results of the several player hands because they're all playing against the same dealer hand so even the premise of independence is false. You'd need to evaluate the distribution of player hand outcomes (number of wins/pushes/losses) for all different dealer hands. So that's all calculable, but it's an analysis that you should expect to pay for.
However, perhaps you're just looking for summary information. In that case, what you've been told is accurate: the expected loss from a single $30 wager is exactly the same as the expected loss from six $5 wagers. Furthermore, the probability of winning a single $30 wager should be greater than the probability of a net positive outcome from making six $5 wagers on a single hand. In discrete terms, that's because with a single bet, you can have a net zero only one way (a push), but with six bets you can have a net zero many ways, including for example 2 wins, 2 losses, 2 pushes. Increasing the probability of a net zero outcome means the probability of a positive outcome is smaller. In more general terms, making 6 bets means you're significantly decreasing the variance, and since your mean is negative (because the house has the edge) there is a much smaller area under the curve in positive territory. You obviously have a larger chance of winning at least one hand if you bet six hands instead of one, but you have a larger chance of coming out ahead if you bet one hand instead of six.
Quote: paigow1986twirdman: glad you used my raffle example...but now try figuring it out mathematically when the tickets cost ZERO dollars....because as I have stated over and over again in this forum, im NOT putting up more money to play more hands and I think that's the point that everyone is missing. the original argument was playing $30 on 1 hand as opposed to playing $5 on 6 hands...so while I understand your little math formula to be correct, it still means nothing to me in this argument.
and not only that, but its the PROGRESSIVES...where im from every single carnival game at the casinos has a progressive, and its a minimum bet of $5, so that you're going to bet the $5 no matter what....what sense does it make for everyone on this forum to tell me that my odds of winning money do not change AT ALL when I go from playing 1 hand to 6....its mind blowing!
OK I will say for a progressive you should bet the minimum to qualify for that and that is it. Everyone will tell you that its because your expected value goes down as you raise your bet since it doesn't affect the amount you win on progressive.
Now lets go with a case without a progressive since there are plenty of carnival games with jackpots that don't have progressives. Your tickets don't cost zero they cost the amount you lose by not winning bigger on winning hands. For instance say you get a 3 of a kind this pays 3-1 on a 30 dollar bet you win 90 on your 5 dollar bet you win 15 so you've "lost" 75 dollars. Again go to the raffle example say you have 2 raffles 1 cost 30 dollars and pays 3000 the other 5 dollars and pays 500 both have 100 tickets. Is it better to buy 1 ticket at 30 or 6 tickets at 5. Well the first case you have a 1/100 chance of winning 3000 dollars so on average win 30 dollars on the other one you have a 6/100 chance of winning 500 so will win on average 30 dollars exactly the same both win exactly the same because both have exactly the same expected value. Your odds of winning go up but the amount you win goes down and hence its a wash. If you still don't understand you really do need to read books on probability I mean you can't expect a forum to take the place of an education it can answer quick question but you seem to need more then that.
a.)"You'd need to evaluate the distribution of player hand outcomes (number of wins/pushes/losses) for all different dealer hands. So that's all calculable, but it's an analysis that you should expect to pay for."
I respect the fact that you're pretty much acknowledging that all the math previously posted by others on this thread was irrelevant and pretty much had nothing to do with my argument. so I applaud you for saying that someone out there needs to do this equation CORRECTLY and not just multiply and divide (as everyone else was doing). but lets assume for a second that I DO find someone that I pay to figure this out, and it comes out that my expected value goes up .00001% (even though I KNOW its more)...then wouldn't I still be right?
b.)"However, perhaps you're just looking for summary information. In that case, what you've been told is accurate: the expected loss from a single $30 wager is exactly the same as the expected loss from six $5 wagers. Furthermore, the probability of winning a single $30 wager should be greater than the probability of a net positive outcome from making six $5 wagers on a single hand. In discrete terms, that's because with a single bet, you can have a net zero only one way (a push), but with six bets you can have a net zero many ways, including for example 2 wins, 2 losses, 2 pushes. Increasing the probability of a net zero outcome means the probability of a positive outcome is smaller. In more general terms, making 6 bets means you're significantly decreasing the variance, and since your mean is negative (because the house has the edge) there is a much smaller area under the curve in positive territory."
I think you're misunderstanding....pai gow is the only game where I bet the regular ante bet AND the bonus. my buddy allows me to play ANY carnival game I want, HOWEVER I want....so when I go to play 4 card poker, or uth, or 3 card, I ONLY BET BONUS'S. so there is never a "push" on any ONE hand, I either win, or I lose. that being said, what you are trying to tell me is that if you have the option of betting $30 on 1 hand (bonus only) as opposed to betting $5 on 6 hands (bonus's only), you will go with the 1 hand and think your chances are better?! INSANE
c.)"You obviously have a larger chance of winning at least one hand if you bet six hands instead of one, but you have a larger chance of coming out ahead if you bet one hand instead of six."
I cannot tell you how WRONG you are about that my friend. you make this bold statement based on what? what math do you have to back that up? what trial have you ran to tell me this? here is what I can tell you, I have been going to the casinos for roughly 10 years now. im that guy that bets BIG on bonus's, I bet big period. I want to say that of all the years, and all the times I have gone to the casino, lets say, 1000 times, I go with $300-400, I lose pretty much 80-90% of the time, by playing the way YOU'RE telling me I should "come out ahead", pardon my French, but that's BULLSHIT. over the last 2 years, with my buddy being the house, I started with $100-200, and im up nearly $10,000!!!!!!! this can NOT be a coincidence, its math, its probability, its odds, its variance, its expected value. I refuse to believe that I just get lucky everytime against my friend, and im extremely unlucky when I go to the casino.
d.)just take what beachbumbabs said on page 8 (which was pretty brilliant I must add): "Let's say the question changed in one variable: he bets $5 on a single spot on the same game, instead of playing one day a week for 2 hours, he plays 6 days a week for 2 hours. Does that not increase HIS chances of a jackpot win? If so (and I maintain that it does), how is that mathematically different from playing 6 hands for two hours once a week? He doesn't seem to care about the aggregate amount; he seems to care about the hit frequency, though earlier his argument was that he would "make more money" doing it that way. In the long run, he won't make more money; he'll make the same. The math says so. But he'll hit a jackpot "more" often (almost never versus never) with good variance and more hands played in the short run, which is what he's doing."
what you should gather from that statement, is that, ive played a LOT of hands with my friend, and im already up on him an amount he can quite possibly never get back (because I only bet $5 a hand on bonus's). with all these hands played, I have YET TO HIT SOMETHING EPIC. in regards to pai gow (because that's the game I play most), I have not even hit a royal flush yet (with or without the joker). I have hit about 8 straight flushes(paid me $250 everytime) 5 quads ($125 everytime) and countless amounts of full houses and flushes. lets not forget this either, when im playing pai gow, im playing bonus's AND ante, so that when he does get pai gow (and it happens a pretty good amount), im not just winning on ONE hand, im winning ALL my hands, on TOP of getting whatever bonus's im getting....I URGE YOU GUYS TO PLEASE JUST TRY THIS AT HOME, YOU WILL BE ON MY SIDE BY THE END OF THE TRAIL, BELIEVE ME. all you have to do is find someone that will be the house and book your bets like that, but guess what, that's VERY hard to come across, because even my friends who agree with my buddy about how it doesn't increase your odds at all, WONT book my bets, they simply wont put their money where their mouth is because they've seen the outcome over the last 2 years...and something tells me that if I knew any of you guys that disagree with me now in real life, and I asked to meet up with you so you could do this for me, you would NOT.
twirdman: on to my friend twirdman (very fitting name btw). I would love to respond to your post, but I stopped reading after this line: "Now lets go with a case without a progressive since there are plenty of carnival games with jackpots that don't have progressives."
you ARE the weakest link. goodbye.
Quote: paigow1986mathextremist: I absolutely understand everything that you said. I agree with some of what you said. however let me go over a few things with you..
a.)"You'd need to evaluate the distribution of player hand outcomes (number of wins/pushes/losses) for all different dealer hands. So that's all calculable, but it's an analysis that you should expect to pay for."
I respect the fact that you're pretty much acknowledging that all the math previously posted by others on this thread was irrelevant and pretty much had nothing to do with my argument. so I applaud you for saying that someone out there needs to do this equation CORRECTLY and not just multiply and divide (as everyone else was doing). but lets assume for a second that I DO find someone that I pay to figure this out, and it comes out that my expected value goes up .00001% (even though I KNOW its more)...then wouldn't I still be right?
b.)"However, perhaps you're just looking for summary information. In that case, what you've been told is accurate: the expected loss from a single $30 wager is exactly the same as the expected loss from six $5 wagers. Furthermore, the probability of winning a single $30 wager should be greater than the probability of a net positive outcome from making six $5 wagers on a single hand. In discrete terms, that's because with a single bet, you can have a net zero only one way (a push), but with six bets you can have a net zero many ways, including for example 2 wins, 2 losses, 2 pushes. Increasing the probability of a net zero outcome means the probability of a positive outcome is smaller. In more general terms, making 6 bets means you're significantly decreasing the variance, and since your mean is negative (because the house has the edge) there is a much smaller area under the curve in positive territory."
I think you're misunderstanding....pai gow is the only game where I bet the regular ante bet AND the bonus. my buddy allows me to play ANY carnival game I want, HOWEVER I want....so when I go to play 4 card poker, or uth, or 3 card, I ONLY BET BONUS'S. so there is never a "push" on any ONE hand, I either win, or I lose. that being said, what you are trying to tell me is that if you have the option of betting $30 on 1 hand (bonus only) as opposed to betting $5 on 6 hands (bonus's only), you will go with the 1 hand and think your chances are better?! INSANE
c.)"You obviously have a larger chance of winning at least one hand if you bet six hands instead of one, but you have a larger chance of coming out ahead if you bet one hand instead of six."
I cannot tell you how WRONG you are about that my friend. you make this bold statement based on what? what math do you have to back that up? what trial have you ran to tell me this? here is what I can tell you, I have been going to the casinos for roughly 10 years now. im that guy that bets BIG on bonus's, I bet big period. I want to say that of all the years, and all the times I have gone to the casino, lets say, 1000 times, I go with $300-400, I lose pretty much 80-90% of the time, by playing the way YOU'RE telling me I should "come out ahead", pardon my French, but that's BULLSHIT. over the last 2 years, with my buddy being the house, I started with $100-200, and im up nearly $10,000!!!!!!! this can NOT be a coincidence, its math, its probability, its odds, its variance, its expected value. I refuse to believe that I just get lucky everytime against my friend, and im extremely unlucky when I go to the casino.
d.)just take what beachbumbabs said on page 8 (which was pretty brilliant I must add): "Let's say the question changed in one variable: he bets $5 on a single spot on the same game, instead of playing one day a week for 2 hours, he plays 6 days a week for 2 hours. Does that not increase HIS chances of a jackpot win? If so (and I maintain that it does), how is that mathematically different from playing 6 hands for two hours once a week? He doesn't seem to care about the aggregate amount; he seems to care about the hit frequency, though earlier his argument was that he would "make more money" doing it that way. In the long run, he won't make more money; he'll make the same. The math says so. But he'll hit a jackpot "more" often (almost never versus never) with good variance and more hands played in the short run, which is what he's doing."
what you should gather from that statement, is that, ive played a LOT of hands with my friend, and im already up on him an amount he can quite possibly never get back (because I only bet $5 a hand on bonus's). with all these hands played, I have YET TO HIT SOMETHING EPIC. in regards to pai gow (because that's the game I play most), I have not even hit a royal flush yet (with or without the joker). I have hit about 8 straight flushes(paid me $250 everytime) 5 quads ($125 everytime) and countless amounts of full houses and flushes. lets not forget this either, when im playing pai gow, im playing bonus's AND ante, so that when he does get pai gow (and it happens a pretty good amount), im not just winning on ONE hand, im winning ALL my hands, on TOP of getting whatever bonus's im getting....I URGE YOU GUYS TO PLEASE JUST TRY THIS AT HOME, YOU WILL BE ON MY SIDE BY THE END OF THE TRAIL, BELIEVE ME. all you have to do is find someone that will be the house and book your bets like that, but guess what, that's VERY hard to come across, because even my friends who agree with my buddy about how it doesn't increase your odds at all, WONT book my bets, they simply wont put their money where their mouth is because they've seen the outcome over the last 2 years...and something tells me that if I knew any of you guys that disagree with me now in real life, and I asked to meet up with you so you could do this for me, you would NOT.
twirdman: on to my friend twirdman (very fitting name btw). I would love to respond to your post, but I stopped reading after this line: "Now lets go with a case without a progressive since there are plenty of carnival games with jackpots that don't have progressives."
you ARE the weakest link. goodbye.
Again you are talking to professional gamblers. People with Ph.Ds in mathematics and people working on advanced degrees on mathematics and they are all saying you are wrong whereas all you have is nu uh that isn't how I feel so you must all be wrong and numbers are stupid. What education do you have to even begin to overturn what everyone is saying. Here is a hint plenty of people play these bets I often see full tables of pai gow with all of them betting the bonus. Since the cards can't see who is playing there is no difference between 1 player and 6. So are you saying that pai gow tables lose on the bonus bet when the table is full because I can guarantee you are wrong.
Also how do you figure there are no carnival games without progressives wizard lays out one for pai gow that I've seen plenty of times he also has a 3 card poker bonus without progressive. You realize a jackpot is not the same as a progressive. I mean hell if your friend is doing a progressive how much is it going up by?
now that i got that out of the way, let me address the "all the people on here with ph.ds in mathematics" statement. i call bullshit on that. as far as i know, mission146, tringolmane, boymimbo, you, or anyone else who has tried to demonstrate any type of math to me on here is about as qualified as a high school dropout. why is this you ask? because a few posts ago mathextremist (which ill take his word for based on his posts on other threads) said that a certain type of mathematical equation would be done in order to figure this out, someone i would have to pay. so apparently, ANYONE that ever put up their little math figures up here for me, sorta kinda wasted their time because in the end, its not what im talking about, it cannot be figured out, there is a lot more to it than just multiplying and dividing and more to it than a binomial equation (which i was actually wrong about).
what education do i have to begin to overturn what everyone is saying? well first off, its not EVERYONE, not EVERYONE disagrees with me. lets assume for the moment though, i am a ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DROPOUT. here is what i can say. i can say TO YOU, that i will meet up with you anywhere you want, you can be the house, i can be the player, and i can play whatever carnival game i want, however i want, for whatever amount of money i want. i will tell you that with my elementary school education, that not only will i last longer than usual as opposed to casinos, but i will come out on top eventually. why does this elementary school educated person say this? well, because for the last 2 years ive been doing it, at a good and steady pace, and its been paying my bills, my vacations, my new iphone, my car repairs, etc. you can call me a liar all you want, i have no reason to make this up. i gain NOTHING from lying to you "internet genius's" about my carnival game escapades. so all the sarcasm and bullshit aside, would you be willing to meet up with me? you can be the house, i can be the player and make you a believer? WOULD you ever be willing to do that for ANYONE? think about that for a second before you respond
and to your last point, my friend doesn't do PROGRESSIVES by definition. because we don't have the machine/tools to figure out what im putting in and how it works out bla bla bla, he just tells me "if you hit the big one on any carnival game ill pay you out $10,000", which im happy with, i wont argue, im already up nearly that much on him, so what does it matter to me? all i know is, there's not a casino in the WORLD that will let me play all 6 bonus's on pai gow, but im sure that has everything to do with cheating/card sharing and NOTHING to do with hitting big bonus's! lolz
one more thing, just my curiosity, what makes someone a "professional gambler"? i would like to classify myself as one because i took $100 and grinded it to $10,000 in 2 years with about a 70-80% success rate. im more professional than anyone on this forum if ya ask me!!
toodaloo
Quote: paigow1986twirdman: im going to try and put this as nicely as possible....you're a moron. either that, or you have no reading comprehension whatsoever. not ONCE did I say that if a table is full that the casinos will lose on their bonus bets. go and look through all 31 of my posts, NOT THERE.
now that i got that out of the way, let me address the "all the people on here with ph.ds in mathematics" statement. i call bullshit on that. as far as i know, mission146, tringolmane, boymimbo, you, or anyone else who has tried to demonstrate any type of math to me on here is about as qualified as a high school dropout. why is this you ask? because a few posts ago mathextremist (which ill take his word for based on his posts on other threads) said that a certain type of mathematical equation would be done in order to figure this out, someone i would have to pay. so apparently, ANYONE that ever put up their little math figures up here for me, sorta kinda wasted their time because in the end, its not what im talking about, it cannot be figured out, there is a lot more to it than just multiplying and dividing and more to it than a binomial equation (which i was actually wrong about).
what education do i have to begin to overturn what everyone is saying? well first off, its not EVERYONE, not EVERYONE disagrees with me. lets assume for the moment though, i am a ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DROPOUT. here is what i can say. i can say TO YOU, that i will meet up with you anywhere you want, you can be the house, i can be the player, and i can play whatever carnival game i want, however i want, for whatever amount of money i want. i will tell you that with my elementary school education, that not only will i last longer than usual as opposed to casinos, but i will come out on top eventually. why does this elementary school educated person say this? well, because for the last 2 years ive been doing it, at a good and steady pace, and its been paying my bills, my vacations, my new iphone, my car repairs, etc. you can call me a liar all you want, i have no reason to make this up. i gain NOTHING from lying to you "internet genius's" about my carnival game escapades. so all the sarcasm and bullshit aside, would you be willing to meet up with me? you can be the house, i can be the player and make you a believer? WOULD you ever be willing to do that for ANYONE? think about that for a second before you respond
and to your last point, my friend doesn't do PROGRESSIVES by definition. because we don't have the machine/tools to figure out what im putting in and how it works out bla bla bla, he just tells me "if you hit the big one on any carnival game ill pay you out $10,000", which im happy with, i wont argue, im already up nearly that much on him, so what does it matter to me? all i know is, there's not a casino in the WORLD that will let me play all 6 bonus's on pai gow, but im sure that has everything to do with cheating/card sharing and NOTHING to do with hitting big bonus's! lolz
one more thing, just my curiosity, what makes someone a "professional gambler"? i would like to classify myself as one because i took $100 and grinded it to $10,000 in 2 years with about a 70-80% success rate. im more professional than anyone on this forum if ya ask me!!
toodaloo
OK just no stop you are making your self look like an idiot. While an advanced analysis would be complex we can do very simple approximations. For instance say I want to know how much time it would take me to get somewhere driving in my car. Technically for an advanced calculation I would have to take into account special and general relativity or I could do a simple calculation just dividing distance by how fast car is going according to speedometer. Also you admit that in aggregate the 6 people are losing so why would you win by playing 6 spots. Do you honestly think the cards care who is playing them. Also you are no where near the same level of some of the professional gamblers. You are a perfect example of the dunning kruger affect.
