Calculating EV with blackjack tournaments
July 22nd, 2013 at 11:30:50 AM
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Hey Wizard of Odds,
I have a math problem that is driving me crazy. I currently played in a blackjack tournament. I assumed tournaments have low risk since the casino pays out almost all of the entry fees however when I calculate the odds of actually making it to the final table x the entry it seems the casino is not paying out enough yet they claim all money paid in the entry gets paid out. Here is an example. At Cannery Casino they say if they have more than 66 players they increase the payouts. Entry fee is $15. SO....they are assuming a $1000 approximately so let's do the same. This is a 3 round tournament and it breaks down like this.
1st round: 1 of 6 advances
2nd round: 1 of 6 advances
3rd round: money table
So my calculations are you have a 1 in 36 chance of making it to the final table and it cost $15 to enter the final pot should be $3240 ($540 x 6). However as you can see $3240 is nowhere near $1000 and these calculations are keeping consistent with every tournament I try...but this one made me question my calculations the most because the casino provides the payouts in terms of % of pot...so I believe them. I guess this is my question in a nutshell.
Are there problems when calculating expected value with blackjack tournaments using average advancement rates from each table? It seems when I use average advancement rates it appears that no blackjack tournament is paying out anywhere near what they should. What am I missing? Thanks!
I have a math problem that is driving me crazy. I currently played in a blackjack tournament. I assumed tournaments have low risk since the casino pays out almost all of the entry fees however when I calculate the odds of actually making it to the final table x the entry it seems the casino is not paying out enough yet they claim all money paid in the entry gets paid out. Here is an example. At Cannery Casino they say if they have more than 66 players they increase the payouts. Entry fee is $15. SO....they are assuming a $1000 approximately so let's do the same. This is a 3 round tournament and it breaks down like this.
1st round: 1 of 6 advances
2nd round: 1 of 6 advances
3rd round: money table
So my calculations are you have a 1 in 36 chance of making it to the final table and it cost $15 to enter the final pot should be $3240 ($540 x 6). However as you can see $3240 is nowhere near $1000 and these calculations are keeping consistent with every tournament I try...but this one made me question my calculations the most because the casino provides the payouts in terms of % of pot...so I believe them. I guess this is my question in a nutshell.
Are there problems when calculating expected value with blackjack tournaments using average advancement rates from each table? It seems when I use average advancement rates it appears that no blackjack tournament is paying out anywhere near what they should. What am I missing? Thanks!
July 22nd, 2013 at 11:42:34 AM
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I think you're running things in circles.
If there are 66 paid entrants, the pot is $990 (66*15).
But if a tournament has a 6 person final table, and 1 in 6 semi finalists made it to that table, and 1 in 6 initial entrants made the semi finals, then there were 216 (6*6*6) people in the tournament (not 66). 216*15=3240.
Most casinos set a floor for the prize money as a way of ensuring initial interest in the tournament. In this case, a tourney with 66 or fewer people has a guaranteed prize pool of $1,000 and a tourney that attracts more than 66 people has a prize pool of $15 per entrant.
If there are 66 paid entrants, the pot is $990 (66*15).
But if a tournament has a 6 person final table, and 1 in 6 semi finalists made it to that table, and 1 in 6 initial entrants made the semi finals, then there were 216 (6*6*6) people in the tournament (not 66). 216*15=3240.
Most casinos set a floor for the prize money as a way of ensuring initial interest in the tournament. In this case, a tourney with 66 or fewer people has a guaranteed prize pool of $1,000 and a tourney that attracts more than 66 people has a prize pool of $15 per entrant.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
