another Baccarat question
March 16th, 2013 at 3:51:35 PM
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This time me and some friends were thinking that Baccarat was essentially like flipping a coin, but one of them actually uses a coin flip to determine what they bet. As in, prior to the next hand, they'll flip a normal coin and if the outcome is heads/tails, they will bet on player/banker respectively
It got me thinking, because he also likes to use a progressive betting system too. I was wondering if any statisticians out there know what the likelihood of his coin flips correctly determining the baccarat outcome 5/6/7 times in a row is (for an 8-deck shoe)? Just wondering what the likelihood of him winning big is
It got me thinking, because he also likes to use a progressive betting system too. I was wondering if any statisticians out there know what the likelihood of his coin flips correctly determining the baccarat outcome 5/6/7 times in a row is (for an 8-deck shoe)? Just wondering what the likelihood of him winning big is
March 18th, 2013 at 8:50:08 AM
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Baccarat differs from flipping a coin in that the results Player/Banker are not equiprobable. But I gather that what you mean by "essentially" is, the probabilities are close to equiprobable.
IF they had a 50/50 chance (and the coin is unbiased too), then the likelihood of correctly determining the next outcome is 50%.
The probability of correctly determining the next N outcomes in a row is 0.5^N.
(Number of decks in shoe is "essentially" playing no role.)
The probability of correctly predicting some succession of outcomes depends on the conditions of your experiment: how many hands played?
The probability of "winning big", finally, depends on how much has been lost in previous (and following) hands: if you win $400 on one hand but had lost $600 in the process, you may rejoice but you still are losing!
IF they had a 50/50 chance (and the coin is unbiased too), then the likelihood of correctly determining the next outcome is 50%.
The probability of correctly determining the next N outcomes in a row is 0.5^N.
(Number of decks in shoe is "essentially" playing no role.)
The probability of correctly predicting some succession of outcomes depends on the conditions of your experiment: how many hands played?
The probability of "winning big", finally, depends on how much has been lost in previous (and following) hands: if you win $400 on one hand but had lost $600 in the process, you may rejoice but you still are losing!
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
March 18th, 2013 at 9:46:02 AM
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An unbiased coin will land 51 percent of the time on whichever surface is "up" at the throw.
A Baccarat player might as well just choose Banker and be done with it but the "choice" can be any method. A coin would be as close to perfection as any other. Just remember: after the lucky coin has made the correct decision "x" times in a row, don't try to blame the coin for being wrong.
A Baccarat player might as well just choose Banker and be done with it but the "choice" can be any method. A coin would be as close to perfection as any other. Just remember: after the lucky coin has made the correct decision "x" times in a row, don't try to blame the coin for being wrong.
