Sports Betting On Lottery Outcomes

First of all, great forum. It seems like (most) everybody has a good head on their shoulders Here.

I know playing the lottery is a sucker bet, but I noticed a sportsbook I use has a lottery outcomes bet. It looks like this right now.




I am just wondering if anyone has some tips on this type of bet? I don't know much about lottery outcomes, so i'd be interested to see what a fair line is for either bet.

Looking forward to hearing about it.

Six to seven months ago, when Mega Millions got close to a +EV bet, there was a big conversation that had to do with the probability of someone winning it (At very large jackpots, it's more likely that someone will win it than not). I'm really tired and wasn't able to find it on one search... but that might be a good start.

In general, those are some pretty ridiculous lines. I highly doubt you can find a good bet in it.

Quote: ahiromu

Six to seven months ago, when Mega Millions got close to a +EV bet, there was a big conversation that had to do with the probability of someone winning it (At very large jackpots, it's more likely that someone will win it than not). I'm really tired and wasn't able to find it on one search... but that might be a good start.

In general, those are some pretty ridiculous lines. I highly doubt you can find a good bet in it.

This is the most recent Mega Millions thread. There was another about 18 months ago as well.

Quote: skilletsteve

Lotto Other Sports Money Line
Powerball Jackpot Winner
Wed 10/17 11 Powerball Jackpot Winner 10/17/2012 +625
10:30PM 12 No Jackpot Winner 10/17/2012 -950

Can someone translate this from math into English?

+625 and -950 are odds that the event "there is a Powerball Jackpot Winner" will happen or will not happen.

Seems like you could play the "no" the first drawing after a winning drawing since fewer people buy tickets when the prize is at the minimum.

Where was this bet found?

+625 pays $625 for every $100 bet, plus you get your $100 back. The implied probability of this happening is 100/725 = 13.8%

-950 pays $100 for every $950 bet, and you get the $950 back. The implied pr is 950/1050 = 90.5%

If you believe the probability of someone winning is > 13.8%, take the +625 bet.
If you believe the probability of nobody winning is <9.5%, take the -950.
In between, don't bet.

Yes, I would think that would be true but then again I think "the line" would reflect that information. If it hits at 200MM and then re-starts at 40MM some people would think -- "why bother?" but then the book's line would reflect that.

Quote: dwheatley

+625 pays $625 for every $100 bet, plus you get your $100 back. The implied probability of this happening is 100/725 = 13.8%

-950 pays $100 for every $950 bet, and you get the $950 back. The implied pr is 950/1050 = 90.5%

If you believe the probability of someone winning is > 13.8%, take the +625 bet.
" " of someone losing is <9.5%, take the -950.
In between, don't bet.

Thanks for the "translation" into English. I was very puzzled by it all.

That is a very narrow range for uncertainty. Frankly, I'd bet the 950 to win the lousy 100 dollars. Its laying the favorite, I guess, but it sure seems those prizes keep growing and growing before they finally hit.

Quote: FleaStiff

Yes, I would think that would be true but then again I think "the line" would reflect that information. If it hits at 200MM and then re-starts at 40MM some people would think -- "why bother?" but then the book's line would reflect that.

The 40MM jackpot might get a bit of play from people who won $4 matching only the PowerBall reinvesting that win into another two tickets, but the subsequent rollover would be less likely to hit since casual players would be back on the sidelines. You might get more players for the 40MM than a 50MM as a result, which is counterintuitive.

Quote: Mission146

Where was this bet found?

I saw this at 5Dimes, although I can't say if the OP did as well. They also have an alternate Pick 3/Pick 4 numbers game, which pays 90% back from the state lottery, as well as more political betting than I've seen from the other major sportsbooks.

Quote: calwatch

I saw this at 5Dimes, although I can't say if the OP did as well. They also have an alternate Pick 3/Pick 4 numbers game, which pays 90% back from the state lottery, as well as more political betting than I've seen from the other major sportsbooks.

I suppose I could share PM information in this case.

I do want to say that the Don't on this Line is a crazy good bet. I discussed this with The Wiz, and although my exact mathematical reasoning was slightly flawed, I had the right idea.

Quote: The Wiz

The expected number of winners is 15M/175,223,510 = 0.08560495.

The probability of at least one winner is 1-exp(-0.08560495) = 8.20%.

Fair line on the NO is -1119.

The odds of winning the Powerball are 1:175,223,510 pursuant to:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerball

And we can make an educated guess as to the number of tickets that will be sold, pursuant to:

http://www.lottoreport.com/PBSalesbystate.htm

Wednesday, 10/17/2012, actually only saw 12,751,142 tickets sold.

The reason that I used 15 million is because, if you look at the last 31 drawings with a Jackpot of 70 million or less, you will find that only six saw more than fifteen million tickets sold. Furthermore, the last time more than 15M tickets were sold for a drawing with a JP of 70M or less was for the March 31st, 2012 drawing.

The first number in The Wiz's calculations assumes that all 15M tickets are unique, which they won't be, but even if they were you still have the best of it by a pretty good margin. The second number corrects for the probability of unique tickets.

Powerball changed on 1/15/12, and since then, you would be 32-5 on this bet betting against PB hitting when the JP is at 70M or below. If you had made this bet every chance you had, (assuming the -950 Line) you'd be on the losing end right now, but mathematically, it's a really great bet at that line.