24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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August 16th, 2012 at 2:30:38 AM permalink
It's next to impossible to get an edge by counting, but is there a count that will tell you if it's better to make a player bet? In particular, are there any cards that benefit one hand over the other, regardless of where they turn up?
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
heather
heather
Joined: Jun 12, 2011
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August 16th, 2012 at 4:39:10 AM permalink
You can get an edge counting ties, and sometimes the dragon bonus (depending on what it is where you're playing), towards the end of the shoe, although the cut card normally keeps at least the former from being too profitable. But I think that the modulo 10 valuation, plus the impossibility of busting, would make Player and Banker bets impossible to count for.

I've asked on here before whether anyone is aware of any casino offering Banker Natural Nine as the dragon bonus (or any other side bet, really). That bet is absolutely countable (Ed Thorpe wrote a paper on it), and the Wizard's Baccarat pages seem to suggest that Banker Natural Nine as the dragon bonus might be available somewhere.
24Bingo
24Bingo
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August 16th, 2012 at 4:48:44 AM permalink
It's my understanding, from ATW, that it's theoretically possible to count for the banker bet with a simple spread strategy, just like in blackjack, but the spread would have to be enormous and the cut quite deep. I'm not asking about a positive edge, though, I'm just wondering if there's a point where the 0.16% difference in EV between the two bets is overcome.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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August 16th, 2012 at 8:20:59 AM permalink
Yes.

This will get you started: http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/2/

But the Wizard does not actually find the points where the Player bet is stronger. That's up to the reader.

The removal of 0-4 decreases the HE on Banker, while the removal of 5-9 decreases the HE on Player. If enough 5-9s are removed, Player bet becomes better
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
jc2286
jc2286
Joined: Apr 15, 2011
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August 16th, 2012 at 9:42:30 AM permalink
What I find interesting about Baccarat counting is that, unlike with Blackjack, you wouldn't necessarily have to keep mental track. You could subtly keep note using the pencil/paper everyone uses to track the streaks.
JB
Administrator
JB
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August 16th, 2012 at 10:10:17 AM permalink
In an 8-deck shoe, if you remove all of the sixes, the Player bet becomes better than the Banker bet. No other rank (when removed entirely) makes the Player bet better than the Banker bet. However, there is still a house edge with all of the sixes removed. The house edge on the Banker bet jumps to 1.2593%, and the house edge on the Player bet drops to 1.0379%.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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September 30th, 2012 at 7:10:15 PM permalink
I know that this is an old-ish post, but...

How can you get an edge counting for the tie bet? I have looked around the normal sites (the Wiz's site, discountgambling, etc) and couldn't find anything.

I also wondered about counting for the pair bet. It seems like it might be possible in theory, but probably not in practice. You probably would need to keep track of perfect deck composition which would be a pain in the ass. Also, I doubt that a profitable bet would show up very often. But, then again, I haven't actually done the math or simulations or anything.

For the dragon bonus bet, try the Palms.

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