Question about an unusual craps payout

Hi! It's my first time to post here. I was dying to ask the Wizard a question regarding this unusual craps payout we have locally (I'm from the Philippines), and so here I was redirected to the forum

We have a x1 Odds for this local online craps we have, powered by RTG. Here's the website of the Craps payout details:


The unusual ones I noticed are from the Don't Pass and Don't Come bets. Unlike the usual "Don't" bets, this one doesn't pay even money on the "Don't" bets themselves during Point. I've tried my own payouts probability checking, and here's what I got:

Don't Pass/Don't Come w/ Full Odds	Payout	Probabilities	Returns	Variance
Win	1	0.085714286	0.085714286	0.111953353
Loss	-1	0.228571429	-0.228571429	0.167930029
4 or 10 Win	1.5	0.114285714	0.171428571	0.30845481
4 or 10 Loss	-3	0.057142857	-0.171428571	0.466472303
5 or 9 Win	2	0.137142857	0.274285714	0.629737609
5 or 9 Loss	-3	0.091428571	-0.274285714	0.746355685
6 or 8 Win	2.5	0.155844156	0.38961039	1.088523721
6 or 8 Loss	-3	0.12987013	-0.38961039	1.060164325
Total		1	-0.142857143	4.579591837

This is a shocking 14.29% house edge for Don't bets, which is in contrast to what I've learned here from the Wizard and everywhere else that the "Don't" bets are supposed to have only slightly better odds than the Pass/Come bets.

Now, the Come bet payout is rather interesting:

Come Line w/ Full Odds	Payout	Probabilities	Returns	Variance
Win	1	0.222222222	0.222222222	0.17558299
Loss	-1	0.111111111	-0.111111111	0.137174211
4 or 10 Win	4	0.055555556	0.222222222	0.840192044
4 or 10 Loss	-2	0.111111111	-0.222222222	0.495198903
5 or 9 Win	3	0.088888889	0.266666667	0.741838134
5 or 9 Loss	-2	0.133333333	-0.266666667	0.594238683
6 or 8 Win	2.4	0.126262626	0.303030303	0.661491458
6 or 8 Loss	-2	0.151515152	-0.303030303	0.675271231
Total		1	0.111111111	4.320987654

This would imply that betting on Come bets for this payout actually gives me 11.11% advantage! In contrast, the Pass bet payout looks standard, with a house edge of 1.41%:

Pass Line w/ Full Odds	Payout	Probabilities	Returns	Variance
Win	1	0.222222222	0.222222222	0.228551735
Loss	-1	0.111111111	-0.111111111	0.107990795
4 or 10 Win	3	0.055555556	0.166666667	0.504724915
4 or 10 Loss	-2	0.111111111	-0.222222222	0.438181591
5 or 9 Win	2.5	0.088888889	0.222222222	0.561858404
5 or 9 Loss	-2	0.133333333	-0.266666667	0.52581791
6 or 8 Win	2.2	0.126262626	0.277777778	0.618992702
6 or 8 Loss	-2	0.151515152	-0.303030303	0.597520352
Total		1	-0.014141414	3.583638404

I'm really very skeptical, and I'm wondering if I've been missing anything on the statistics or from the payout rules itself. If the payout list I shared from the URL above is really to be believed, would this mean then that for this version of craps, I need to AVOID "Don't" bets at all cost, and on the other hand actually "Work Hard" on the Come bets?

i hope you get to see this post, Mr. Wizard, and I hope you could shed light on this quite unsettling discovery!

(And oh, just a side question: What's the mathematical basis for Double-Ups in Video Poker to be 50/50? And would this be true, even for wilds games which use wild cards even on the Double-Up? On Joker Poker for instance, it has one wild card which is ultimately unbeatable, but which can beat any Aces unlike on regular games.)

At 11.1 % favor to the player, gamblers would be pouncing on this in no time. Nothing like that ever escapes notice for long. Plus I can't think of a reason in the world come bets should be treated differently than pass line bets.

But if I am wrong and those bets are available, your advantage is so huge you could test this yourself; even with bad luck, after 200 or so 'come-outs on the come' [is that how to say it?] you should be way ahead and seeing you can increase your bets on an upward spiral. Good chance you's see your way clear after much less.

PS: of course, being an online casino, they simply wouldnt pay you.

I think either they changedbthe table or youve misread it.

The pass line bet pays even, even after a point is established. Only the odds bets pays a variable amount according to the point. Your sums seem to suggest a passline bet when a four is rolled pays two to one on both the line and the odds.

Go for it. These guys are idiots - they've missed the point of craps, that the points are all in the house's favor and the come-out roll tempers it to a reasonable edge - or in don't pass, that the points are all in the player's favor and a slightly less favorable come-out roll brings it back to a reasonable house edge. Instead, they've made the points fair in the don't pass and come bets, giving an exorbitant edge to the don't pass bets and a huge player edge to the come ones. Just don't be surprised when your check gets lost in the mail.

I haven't studied this in detail, but I think that the OP has misread the payout table in his link. I think the payout table is for the payout on the odds bets that are associated with the don't or come bets but that he has interpreted that as the payout on the line bet or line bet plus 1x odds.

Yeah, I think there must be a misprint on the website (the site itself, at least the page you've linked to, doesn't look very well done). It looks like they've mistakenly inserted the Don't Pass Odd's Bet payout table into the Don't Pass payout table. They've done the same thing with the Come Bet payout table…mistakenly inserting in there the Come Bet ODDS payout table. I suppose there's an easy way to check it out….bet a buck on Don't pass a few times and see what happens. Same thing with the Come bet.

Quote: Doc

I haven't studied this in detail, but I think that the OP has misread the payout table in his link. I think the payout table is for the payout on the odds bets that are associated with the don't or come bets but that he has interpreted that as the payout on the line bet or line bet plus 1x odds.

They aren't. It specifically says: "If the Point is rolled before a 7, you win according to the payout table shown to the right."

I can't find, however, an actual casino linked to this - the screenshots look like they come from Bovada, and the writing style suggests a general guide (albeit a terrible one...).

Quote: 24Bingo

They aren't. It specifically says: "If the Point is rolled before a 7, you win according to the payout table shown to the right."

You are correct about what the text says, but I doubt it is actually paid that way. The payout tables shown for pass odds bet, don't pass bet, don't pass odds bet, come bet, come odds bet, don't come bet, and don't come odds bet are exactly the normal payout rates for the odds bet only for those wagers.

For those cases in which they appear to be referring to the base bet rather than the odds portion of the bet, I consider this an error on the web site and would be amazed if that were the way they really paid wagers. I think any calculations of EV based on applying the odds payouts to line bets is just a wasted effort unless/until someone verifies that the casino really pays the line bets in that unlikely manner.

Quote: 24Bingo

They aren't. It specifically says: "If the Point is rolled before a 7, you win according to the payout table shown to the right."

I can't find, however, an actual casino linked to this - the screenshots look like they come from Bovada, and the writing style suggests a general guide (albeit a terrible one...).

How did you find this link? The most likely explanation is that the help page is screwed up. I can't imagine any casino actually doing this. They would lose a fortune if played all the time.

The EV of establishing a point and winning is:
=1*(3/36)*(6/9) + 1*(4/36)*(6/10) + 1*(5/36)*(6/11) + 1*(5/36)*(6/11) + 1*(4/36)*(6/10) + 1*(3/36)*(6/9) (real calculation)
=2*(3/36)*(6/9) + 1.5*(4/36)*(6/10) + 1.2*(5/36)*(6/11) + 1.2*(5/36)*(6/11) + 1.5*(4/36)*(6/10) + 2*(3/36)*(6/9) (according to payout)

Quote: crapslicious

(And oh, just a side question: What's the mathematical basis for Double-Ups in Video Poker to be 50/50? And would this be true, even for wilds games which use wild cards even on the Double-Up? On Joker Poker for instance, it has one wild card which is ultimately unbeatable, but which can beat any Aces unlike on regular games.)

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't it say on the games themselves that Double-Up has a 50% chance of winning? I also assume that double-ups simply don't use wild cards.

The linked site is just the result of a shitty copy and paste job. It is describing the proper game of craps, but has some repeated sections in inappropriate places. This makes the casual reader think that the don't pass has a special payout, when it is just the payout for the odds in the wrong spot.

The OP also made a mistake transcribing the payouts, I have no idea where OP got their numbers.

Nothing to see here, move along.

The OP's numbers are right, and the linked site, even if its mistakes are reflected nowhere in reality, hasn't just put the tables in the wrong places; the bet on the pass line promises even money on a point win, unlike the don't pass and come bets, which refer to the table. Whoever wrote it clearly genuinely thought that the don't pass and come bets should be paid like that.

Thank you for all your comments! I actually tried the craps game last night, and the payout URL does seem flawed, the actual game paying out the usual a craps game is supposed to (Come bets payout same as Pass bets, etc.). So there goes the "11.11% Come bet advantage" dreams...

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't it say on the games themselves that Double-Up has a 50% chance of winning? I also assume that double-ups simply don't use wild cards.

Apperently in our local casino, the wild cards for the corresponding wilds game are also used for the Double-Up, that's why I'm really curious about it.

Quote: 24Bingo

The OP's numbers are right, and the linked site, even if its mistakes are reflected nowhere in reality, hasn't just put the tables in the wrong places; the bet on the pass line promises even money on a point win, unlike the don't pass and come bets, which refer to the table. Whoever wrote it clearly genuinely thought that the don't pass and come bets should be paid like that.

I totally missed when I scanned through they had c'n'p the wrong pay tables in. Oops to me as well.