Sub-Two Hour Marathon?
Poll
 | 1 vote (5%) | ||
| | 2 votes (10%) | ||
| | 2 votes (10%) | ||
| | 15 votes (75%) | ||
| No votes (0%) |
20 members have voted
November 9th, 2011 at 10:22:59 AM
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In this year's New York Marathon, Geoffrey Mutai of Kenya won it in 2:05:05. He is also the record holder of the fastest marathon time in history, finishing the 26.2 miles, at Boston this year in 2:03:02.
A sub two hour marathon seems tantilizingly close. When do you think this time will be broken?
A sub two hour marathon seems tantilizingly close. When do you think this time will be broken?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
November 9th, 2011 at 10:24:15 AM
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Does the third choice include the first two?
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November 9th, 2011 at 10:27:29 AM
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Quote: NareedDoes the third choice include the first two?
Yes.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
November 9th, 2011 at 10:31:24 AM
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If you throw out any marathon time that is on a net downhill courses (times on those courses are not eligible for any records beyond course records) then you will not see a sub 2 hour marathon anytime in the next four years, maybe not even in the next 25 or 30 years. I believe it could happen at some point, but not by anyone alive today on a course where a time wold go in the record books.
P.S. I will be in Vegas next month for the half marathon, my second trip ever to the city.
Dan Y.
P.S. I will be in Vegas next month for the half marathon, my second trip ever to the city.
Dan Y.
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November 9th, 2011 at 10:33:20 AM
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2:20 was broken in 1953.
2:15 was broken in 1963.
2:10 was broken in 1967.
2:05 was broken in 2003.
I give it 7 years for 2:00 to be broken. It will be an incredible run to be sure.
2:15 was broken in 1963.
2:10 was broken in 1967.
2:05 was broken in 2003.
I give it 7 years for 2:00 to be broken. It will be an incredible run to be sure.
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November 9th, 2011 at 10:57:24 AM
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What really amazes me is how fit the elite runners are. At the end of the race, I am expecting them to collapse and be carried to the medical tent, but they're not even out of breath. They seem so casual, like they could nibble on a Powerbar, and just keep running all the way back to their hotel.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
November 9th, 2011 at 11:24:08 AM
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While it took "only" 14 years to shave off 10 minutes, it took another 36 years to shave an additional 5.Quote: boymimbo2:20 was broken in 1953.
2:15 was broken in 1963.
2:10 was broken in 1967.
2:05 was broken in 2003.
And the current record didn't even get halfway there.
I don't see it happening anytime soon at all.
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November 9th, 2011 at 1:00:55 PM
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There's probably some technology at play here with running shoes. I imagine some courses are easier than others and that weather plays a massive effect. But I'm not an expert, at all. I did run 10k about 10 years back.
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November 9th, 2011 at 3:53:53 PM
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If and when somebody breaks the 2:00 mark I will suspect steroids, no matter how emphatic the denials.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 9th, 2011 at 5:43:58 PM
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Quote: WizardIf and when somebody breaks the 2:00 mark I will suspect steroids, no matter how emphatic the denials.
You mean you don't suspect them now?
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November 9th, 2011 at 7:17:45 PM
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Quote: boymimbo2:20 was broken in 1953.
2:15 was broken in 1963.
2:10 was broken in 1967.
2:05 was broken in 2003.
Expanding on this idea:
2:10 was broken in 1967
2:09 was broken in 1969
2:08 was broken in 1985
2:07 was broken in 1988
2:06 was broken in 1999
2:05 was broken in 2003
2:04 was broken in 2008
The last five increments have averaged about 8 years to be broken, but the last two have only averaged 4.5 years each. I think that we'll see something closer to that lower average, so I'm guessing 12-15 years is the right range. My question is, will it be done by a Kenyan or an Eithiopian?
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
November 9th, 2011 at 7:34:17 PM
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I haven't yet seen a marathon runner with a physique like the one Ben Johnson had. When he was doping, he didn't look a bit (general physique) like Carl Lewis or any other sprinter. I suspect (don't know, of course), that a distance runner heavily using such enhancements would show changes other than performance.Quote: NareedYou mean you don't suspect them now?
If you believe that there is a non-zero boundary on the minimum time required to run a marathon, I think you should expect the long-term trend in improvement to become more and more gradual, perhaps like an exponential asymptote to the minimum. In the short term, I expect improvement to be erratic, with significant jumps, perhaps several of them, followed by periods in which the new record is not frequently challenged. I have no idea when to expect one of these jumps to cross the 2-hr "barrier".
November 9th, 2011 at 8:09:10 PM
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Quote: WizardIf and when somebody breaks the 2:00 mark I will suspect steroids, no matter how emphatic the denials.
Possibly even new biological enhancements. .I don't discount the idea of someone trying to try out medical enhancements that may be possible one day Once you think like an old communist east Germans, anything is possible.
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November 9th, 2011 at 8:25:54 PM
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Quote: WizardIf and when somebody breaks the 2:00 mark I will suspect steroids, no matter how emphatic the denials.
I wouldn't suspect steroids, I would suspect the same sort of thing that long distance cycling has been with the oxygen fixing stuff.
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November 9th, 2011 at 11:20:10 PM
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Quote: DocIf you believe that there is a non-zero boundary on the minimum time required to run a marathon, I think you should expect the long-term trend in improvement to become more and more gradual, perhaps like an exponential asymptote to the minimum.
About 20 years ago, the asymptote of the human body for the marathon was estimated to be 2 hours minus 2 minutes. So you are getting pretty close to theoretical limits. The guess is that if it does happen it will be in London.
Of course, how do you explain Bob Beamon?
November 10th, 2011 at 11:35:26 AM
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Quote: NareedDoes the third choice include the first two?
You couldn't answer that for yourself? How could it not?
November 10th, 2011 at 11:38:32 AM
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Quote: NareedYou mean you don't suspect them now?
2nd that
November 10th, 2011 at 11:46:53 AM
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It certainly could happen on an ideal course. Say perfectly straight, perfectly level, 1/2 northward, 1/2 southward, a wind shift from strong south to strong north after a front that favored the runners perfectly both ways. I went with the more than 4. I will add that if financial rewards for doing it were high enough, it might happen pretty quickly. Some of the elite runners make good money re the track meet circuits that could not include a marathon.
November 10th, 2011 at 12:06:59 PM
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Quote: pacomartinOf course, how do you explain Bob Beamon?
and Beamon's super jump was an extraordinary example of that.Quote: DocI expect improvement to be erratic, with significant jumps....
November 10th, 2011 at 12:44:21 PM
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Quote: pacomartinOf course, how do you explain Bob Beamon?
Thin air? Wasn't that jump at the 68 Olympics in Mexico City? For a short sprint the muscles can operate anaerobically, so the lower oxygen pressure isn't an issue. But the lower air resistance might have helped.
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