Mission challenge #2 -- Quitting Smoking
Poll
 | 12 votes (24%) | ||
| | 27 votes (54%) | ||
| | 11 votes (22%) |
50 members have voted
To make a long story short, he is going to attempt to quit smoking effective at midnight Jan 1, 2014. He must go the entire year without smoking. He may use the patch, but may not put anything in his mouth that delivers tobacco or nicotine.
I bet my $500 against his $100 that he would fail. I know this is probably a negative EV bet for me, but my motive is to see him quit, not to win the bet. I figured the bet would motivate him even more. In other words, I want to lose.
The question for the forum is will he succeed?
May the betting begin.
Quote: WizardI spent a fair bit of time with Mission while he was in town and couldn't help but encourage him to quit smoking at one point. I'd estimate he smokes between half and a full pack per day. He also likes mini-cigars, or maybe was just smoking those because one can pretty much get them for free via a promotion going on the Four Queens.
To make a long story short, he is going to attempt to quit smoking effective at midnight Jan 1, 2014. He must go the entire year without smoking. He may use the patch, but may not put anything in his mouth that delivers tobacco or nicotine.
I bet my $500 against his $100 that he would fail. I know this is probably a negative EV bet for me, but my motive is to see him quit, not to win the bet. I figured the bet would motivate him even more. In other words, I want to lose.
The question for the forum is will he succeed?
May the betting begin.
Quitting is easy. I've done it a thousand times.
The time cannot come soon enough when all cigarettes and cigarette companies are struck from this earth but that is only my personal opinion :)
I wish Mission well but fear I don't think he will be able to do it.
Here is a tip though.....walk into your office one morning, look at the cigarettes you left on your desk the previous night, place them in the garbage and NEVER smoke again.
Easier said than done!
Great motivation Wiz, I applaud you!!!
Note that you don't inhale cigar smoke (at least, you're not "supposed" to -- I know some hard-core smokers who do) and so the health risks are uncertain. Studies are kind of sparse here, but the best studies that I could find indicate that if you don't inhale, the health risks aren't statistically significant.
IMO, cigarettes are disgusting; I don't know how people smoke those. They taste terrible with all the chemical crap that they add to them.
Quote: Wizard
I bet my $500 against his $100 that he would fail. I know this is probably a negative EV bet for me, but my motive is to see him quit, not to win the bet. I figured the bet would motivate him even more. In other words, I want to lose.
Pierce has got a tough fight, and I know; the 1:5 lay is an accurate depiction of the difficulty, - in fact, it may understate the long shot odds.
Quote: WizardThe question for the forum is will he succeed?
May the betting begin.
I can't take this action, no bet.
Quitting smoking is a mysterious release, requiring a Zen moment of liberation, not a New Year's resolution. Try to quit, that is, to "will it," - and it's relapse city for many. One drink, one social outing, one moment off guard, whatever, you'll find a cig in your hand. You fight it, you lose.
My mother quit at 65 after trying a thousand times prior over the years; one day she thought, "this is stupid, and it is over," and she never smoked again.
Quote: Paigowdan
My mother quit at 65 after trying a thousand times prior over the years; one day she thought, "this is stupid, and it is over," and she never smoked again.
I hear exactly what you are saying. My father smoked 90 cigarettes a day. He walked into his office one morning and his secretary had placed his cigs in his drawer as per usual. He opened the drawer, took a look at the 3 boxes of 30's, closed the drawer and never smoked again.......
He is a very strong willed person so it may take one of those to do.
I am still inspired by his strong will and determination!
Quote: PaigowdanMy mother quit at 65 after trying a thousand times prior over the years; one day she thought, "this is stupid, and it is over," and she never smoked again.
You know, one of my buddies did the exact same thing. One day he just said, "No more!" and that was the end of it. Didn't smoke again, and didn't get the urge. He was shocked at how easy it was after multiple failed attempts.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceNote that you don't inhale cigar smoke.
What is the point of smoking them then? I thought the satisfaction comes from inhaling.
Smoking is an uncannily addicting habit.
Quote: WizardWhat is the point of smoking them then? I thought the satisfaction comes from inhaling.
Even though you don't inhale the mouth soaks up a lot of nicotine. And you are also breathing in the smoke the cigar creates.
Quote: WizardWhat is the point of smoking them then? I thought the satisfaction comes from inhaling.
I've never smoked one myself, but I imagine they have a taste to them as well.
After seeing his persistence with the nuggets, I think Mission can do it. Any takers on the no side? odiousgambit, AxiomOfChoice - "rematch" ?
Quote: rudeboyoiI'd argue to start on Jan 2nd. Too easy to immediately fail on new years eve night.
100% agree. Any booze may trigger a nic fit.
Quote: WizardI spent a fair bit of time with Mission while he was in town and couldn't help but encourage him to quit smoking at one point. I'd estimate he smokes between half and a full pack per day. He also likes mini-cigars, or maybe was just smoking those because one can pretty much get them for free via a promotion going on the Four Queens.
To make a long story short, he is going to attempt to quit smoking effective at midnight Jan 1, 2014. He must go the entire year without smoking. He may use the patch, but may not put anything in his mouth that delivers tobacco or nicotine.
I bet my $500 against his $100 that he would fail. I know this is probably a negative EV bet for me, but my motive is to see him quit, not to win the bet. I figured the bet would motivate him even more. In other words, I want to lose.
The question for the forum is will he succeed?
May the betting begin.
If he really wants it he'll succeed but I don't think $500 will be the motivator. Perhaps pride or accomplishment but not money. I made the same bet with my daughter but the prize was a new car. I even helped her by putting pictures of diseased lungs where she would see them. It's very difficult to watch someone shorten their life so senselessly.
If you were to modify the bet to let Mission "vape", he would have a much better chance of success. When vaping, you get the nicotine for the brain craving, but you don't get the tars and carbon monoxide, which are what actually harm your lungs. The nicotine is conveyed by water vapor, and the physical habit (which is what a lot of smoking is about) still gets served. It's much healthier than smoking, and easier as a halfway step to quit once you've transitioned. It's also not putting second-hand smoke products in the air, just water vapor, and is not objectionable to most non-smokers.
Quote: WizardWhat is the point of smoking them then? I thought the satisfaction comes from inhaling.
1. Even if you don't inhale, you still absorb nicotine. Nowhere near as much, but full-sized cigars are also much bigger and take much longer to smoke than cigarettes, so you end up getting a pretty good nicotine kick anyway.
2. The point is to taste the smoke. I really like the taste of good, well-humidified, well-aged tobacco! Some are also infused with some sort of flavoring (for the most part I prefer the "plain tobacco" ones, although there are some good whiskey-infused ones. You can also do this yourself, although it takes a long time) Unfortunately with cigarettes they use crappy tobacco, and it doesn't matter because is it masked by all the chemicals that they add to them (with a few exceptions, eg, Nat Sherman "naturals"). Cigarettes are made to be as cheap as possible, and it shows.
3. If you are not a regular (heavy) smoker and you inhale a cigar, you will almost certainly throw up. Whenever a non-cigar-smoker asks me for a cigar, or even a puff, I always warn them of this.
Obviously, not inhaling does a lot to mitigate the risk of lung cancer (you will still inhale some if it, but not much, particularly if you smoke outside). The risk of things like mouth cancer seems to exist but be minimal (minimal enough that studies don't show that it's statistically significant). Overall, it's a risk that I'm willing to take (and it's not like I chain-smoke them -- I smoke less than one per day, usually a small one due to time constraints -- I don't always have an hour to kick back and smoke!)
quit cold turkey at age 55. Never looked back, and this
was long before any kind of help existed. I quit at 33 and
and never had another, ditto for my brother. It's all in
your head. There's no other way to say it, if you're a weak
willed person it's a tough go. I know I know, that wascally
nicotine is a hard one to kick. No it's not, the user is crutch
oriented, that's the problem. Can you imagine how addicted
my dad must have been? He said enough is enough and
moved on.
Nike is right. Just do it. Which is stronger, a tube of burning weeds, or you.
Quote: EvenBobMy dad smoked 4 packs a day (4 packs!) for 35 years and
quit cold turkey at age 55. Never looked back, and this
was long before any kind of help existed. I quit at 33 and
and never had another, ditto for my brother. It's all in
your head. There's no other way to say it, if you're a weak
willed person it's a tough go. I know I know, that wascally
nicotine is a hard one to kick. No it's not, the user is crutch
oriented, that's the problem. Can you imagine how addicted
my dad must have been? He said enough is enough and
moved on.
Nike is right. Just do it. Which is stronger, a tube of burning weeds, or you.
I'm not sure that it has anything to do with weak-willed. Some people are prone to addiction, and some people are not. This is almost certainly a genetic thing. It's just like some people can drink and be fine with it, and other people have severe problems with alcoholism. It probably has something to do with the density of receptors in your brain for whatever happy-chemical gets released when you smoke or drink or gamble or whatever. If you don't have a lot of those receptors you are never really going to be addicted.
I have known lots of addicts and I would not say that it has anything to do with being weak-willed at all.
Quote: AxiomOfChoice
I have known lots of addicts and I would not say that it has anything to do with being weak-willed at all.
I also have known lots of addicts and I know
being strong willed is most of it. Weak willed
people have a boatload of excuses. It's my
genes, I'm addiction prone, it's different
and harder for me. No it's not, they just make
it harder because they really don't want to
stop what they're doing. Can you imagine
letting a stupid cigarette get the better of
you? It speaks volumes about who you are.
I've known a dozen people who got lung cancer
and they had all sworn for years that they
couldn't quit. Guess what, they all quit cold
turkey when they got diagnosed and never
went back. It's all about incentive and will
power.
My dad stopped cold turkey just like the other stories in this thread.
I am not sure even $500 is enough motivation given the high cost of smoking. In WA cigs are around $8 a pack. If the cost is similar in Mission's state and he smokes 1/2 pack a day he is spending about $1500/yr on cigarettes. If that is not enough financial motivation to quit then an additional $500 won't make a difference.
Quote: jml24
My dad stopped cold turkey just like the other stories in this thread.
.
Yup. Smokers have real problems with these
stories. They resent that we even talk about it,
because what they want is excuses for not
being able to do it. That's the society we live
in now, an excuses society. Offer somebody 10
million to quit for a year, and you'll see amazing
results. It's all about being incentivised.
Quote: jml24
I am not sure even $500 is enough motivation given the high cost of smoking. In WA cigs are around $8 a pack. If the cost is similar in Mission's state and he smokes 1/2 pack a day he is spending about $1500/yr on cigarettes. If that is not enough financial motivation to quit then an additional $500 won't make a difference.
Quitting is hard but I think this 500 will do more than you think. People don't think about money completely logically. The lump sum is a bigger incentivize then the nickels and dimes. I don't know Mission personally but for most smokers they see the cost of a pack as just a normal daily expense and don't even think about it but $500 is a large amount of money. Look at tax returns. People are happy to get a large amount but that just means you paid more than you were supposed to. The thing is though they don't notice the small amount extra being taken from every paycheck but that lump sum is super nice.
Quote: EvenBobMy dad smoked 4 packs a day (4 packs!) for 35 years and
quit cold turkey at age 55. Never looked back, and this
was long before any kind of help existed. I quit at 33 and
and never had another, ditto for my brother. It's all in
your head. There's no other way to say it, if you're a weak
willed person it's a tough go. I know I know, that wascally
nicotine is a hard one to kick. No it's not, the user is crutch
oriented, that's the problem. Can you imagine how addicted
my dad must have been? He said enough is enough and
moved on.
Nike is right. Just do it. Which is stronger, a tube of burning weeds, or you.
My grandma smoked 2 packs a day for 60 years. From 12-73. She quit cold turkey because when she went on SSI she could not afford it. She wanted to continue but just couldn't afford it. Sadly 18 months after quitting she got diagnosed with emphysema and died 12 months later.
Addiction is a nasty animal. I am 5' 11 and weigh 290. I would love to lose weight and have tried many times. Addiction to sweet tea and fast food just takes over. I should start a prop bet of losing 75 pounds. I think money would motivate me more than healthy living.
Quote: GWAEMy grandma smoked 2 packs a day for 60 years. From 12-73. She quit cold turkey because when she went on SSI she could not afford it. .
It's that generation. My dad was in the Pacific
in WWII for 5 years. He joined in 36 and got
out in 1945. The thought he couldn't quit
smoking never crossed his mind. There were
no excuses, you did it or you didn't. He grew
up when there was no welfare, no SS or Medicare
for old people. No excuses, no feeling sorry
for yourself, just get busy and do it.
Quote: Paigowdan100% agree. Any booze may trigger a nic fit.
No, I'll be at work NYE.
I quit at the age of 50, ten years later developed COPD. I've been non-smoking for 11 years.
If you're going to give up smoking you'll have to give up drinking for at least the first 6 months. Cold turkey is the path to success. Well, cold turkey and a boatload of sunflower seeds. Every time the urge strikes tell your self "I don't smoke"' say it out loud if necessary.
Hang tough, it's you against it. Reject all the mind games you'll try to justify one more smoke.
Here's the best part, once you've quit, you'll have the confidence you can handle any challenge.
Quote: WizardTo make a long story short, he is going to attempt to quit smoking effective at midnight Jan 1, 2014. He must go the entire year without smoking. He may use the patch, but may not put anything in his mouth that delivers tobacco or nicotine.
I bet my $500 against his $100 that he would fail. I know this is probably a negative EV bet for me, but my motive is to see him quit, not to win the bet. I figured the bet would motivate him even more. In other words, I want to lose.
May the betting begin.
I'll add $100 to Wiz's $500 and give Mission 6 to 1 odds (Mike you keep the $100 if Mission fails).......I too want to write a check in 12 months!
I may send him a box of cigars a and some smokes.Quote: ParadigmI'll add $100 to Wiz's $500 and give Mission 6 to 1 odds (Mike you keep the $100 if Mission fails).......I too want to write a check in 12 months!
Quote: GWAEAddiction is a nasty animal. I am 5' 11 and weigh 290. I would love to lose weight and have tried many times. Addiction to sweet tea and fast food just takes over. I should start a prop bet of losing 75 pounds. I think money would motivate me more than healthy living.
Is there any precedent on WoV for such a bet?
Quote: SOOPOOIs there any precedent on WoV for such a bet?
I have only been around for about 6 months so I am not 100% sure. I do believe there was a lady a few years ago who did one. I can not remember her name but I only remember the thread getting bumped a few months ago.
Wait, didn't you have that challenge or something.
Were you being sarcastic?
ETA: yes indeed I see you did have that challenge.
Quote: GWAEI have only been around for about 6 months so I am not 100% sure. .
Soopoo is jerking your chain.
Quote: GWAEAddiction is a nasty animal. I am 5' 11 and weigh 290. I would love to lose weight and have tried many times. Addiction to sweet tea and fast food just takes over. I should start a prop bet of losing 75 pounds. I think money would motivate me more than healthy living.
I haven't tried this but may sign up
http://www.dietbetter.com/
Smokers spend less money overall for healthcare than non-smokers..........
because they die an earlier age.
Quote: KeyserSozeInteresting fact about smokers.
Smokers spend less money overall for healthcare than non-smokers..........
because they die an earlier age.
They also die before they collect any of
the benefits they've been paying for all
their lives, like SS and Medicare. Saves
the gov't a ton of money.
Quote: wudgedI haven't tried this but may sign up
http://www.dietbetter.com/
That looks interesting. I am on phone now so I will look at it more when I get home.
I intend to update this thread periodically with my struggles as this thing progresses, but I don't think it will be difficult. It'll probably go from a daily account of wanting a smoke, and when, and eventually dwindle down into nothing. I'm looking at a combination of chewing gum and Certs, it's worked before.
In any event, I'd like to take this opportunity to respectfully decline all action, for any amount either way, with anyone except for the Wizard.
Basically, I shouldn't need to be compensated solely to make a decision that will ultimately be beneficial to my long-term health. The main reason that I am accepting the Wizard's action is the fact that, in addition to the health compensation, I view it as mainly compensation for what will be another year of what I hope is valuable service to the WizardofVegas message boards. If not for Administrating the Forums, I would either quit or not quit but decline any and all action.
Furthermore, if I quit smoking for the year of 2014, I have no intention of starting again in 2015, or anytime beyond.
Now, for those of you who may want to wage against yourselves, some statistics:
STATISTICS
Age Started: 12y.o.
Years Smoked (Total): 14
Years Chewed Tobacco: 2
Years Did Neither: 2
Preferred Tobacco: Mini-Cigars (Cigarette-Sized), Cigarettes Only if Out of Cigars
Average Smoked Per Day: 8-10 Mini-Cigars (Half Pack or Slightly Less)
Favorite Brands: Captain Black ($2.69/pack) Smoker's Friendly Vanilla ($1.59/pack)
Previous Methods of Quitting: Gum, Certs, Starlight Mints, Cold Turkey
Smokes Most Often: Casino, Work
Smokes Least Often: Home
Quote: Mission146a decision that will ultimately be beneficial to my long-term health.
This is a fallacy commonly held by smokers.
Your short term health is massively effected
by using your lungs to filter a couple hundred
different chemical substances. It's effecting
every organ in your body, and not in a good
way.
You won't know how badly you really feel right
now until you get clean. I think you'll be amazed.
Quote: treetopbuddyChantix......the drug will allow you to break the cycle and get through the cravings. Had two friends that succeeded in quitting when treated with Chantix. You really gotta wanta....or nothing will work.
You know, I attribute my Nuggets loss partially to smoking. I may have been able to handle all of that dry Vegas air, from a respiratory/nasal standpoint, were I not a smoker. I'd like to be able to handle that Vegas air come January, 2015.
Quote: Mission146You know, I attribute my Nuggets loss partially to smoking. I may have been able to handle all of that dry Vegas air, from a respiratory/nasal standpoint, were I not a smoker. I'd like to be able to handle that Vegas air come January, 2015.
440,000 deaths annually and sub par results in eating contests attributed to smoking
Quote: Mission146You know, I attribute my Nuggets loss partially to smoking. I may have been able to handle all of that dry Vegas air, from a respiratory/nasal standpoint, were I not a smoker. I'd like to be able to handle that Vegas air come January, 2015.
Do I hear rematch?!
Quote: wudgedDo I hear rematch?!
He already said no.
