North Carolina's Climate Change Follies
June 5th, 2012 at 8:47:43 AM
permalink
North Carolina's Climate Change Follies
I saw Steven Colbert do a story on this new law passed in North Carolina to essentially ignore climate change predictions. Colbert's take on it was that he was bothered by actuaries predicting when he was going to die. He is proposing to limit all future predictions to data collected in the last 50 years. During all of the last 50 years he has been alive, ergo, he will live forever.
I thought it was a joke, until numerous news stories confirm that indeed , North Carolina is really proposing such a law. The core of the law is that the future must be predicted by linear extrapolation only. Exponential growth is considered illegal.
I saw Steven Colbert do a story on this new law passed in North Carolina to essentially ignore climate change predictions. Colbert's take on it was that he was bothered by actuaries predicting when he was going to die. He is proposing to limit all future predictions to data collected in the last 50 years. During all of the last 50 years he has been alive, ergo, he will live forever.
I thought it was a joke, until numerous news stories confirm that indeed , North Carolina is really proposing such a law. The core of the law is that the future must be predicted by linear extrapolation only. Exponential growth is considered illegal.
June 5th, 2012 at 12:06:08 PM
permalink
We in North Carolina try not to let rational thought processes stand in our way. :-)
I recall some energy price projections that were made in about 1980. Looking back ten or fifteen years from there, it was fairly evident that prices had indeed been growing exponentially (if you smooth the curve). Projecting continued exponential growth for an additional fifteen or twenty years ("Hey, we're just basing projections on the facts of history!") led to extremely high "expected" prices and was the basis for promoting a number of capital investments that would never have paid for themselves in their useful lives.
I have only skimmed the linked article. I suspect that similar arguments (similar to those damning the legislators) could have been used to justify 1980s projections of continued exponential growth in energy costs through the next few decades. If legislation had been based on that kind of continued energy inflation, then we all might have been required by law to purchase houses and vehicles powered 100% by photovoltaic systems using 1980s PV technology.
I recall some energy price projections that were made in about 1980. Looking back ten or fifteen years from there, it was fairly evident that prices had indeed been growing exponentially (if you smooth the curve). Projecting continued exponential growth for an additional fifteen or twenty years ("Hey, we're just basing projections on the facts of history!") led to extremely high "expected" prices and was the basis for promoting a number of capital investments that would never have paid for themselves in their useful lives.
I have only skimmed the linked article. I suspect that similar arguments (similar to those damning the legislators) could have been used to justify 1980s projections of continued exponential growth in energy costs through the next few decades. If legislation had been based on that kind of continued energy inflation, then we all might have been required by law to purchase houses and vehicles powered 100% by photovoltaic systems using 1980s PV technology.
