jaldal
jaldal
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January 15th, 2010 at 10:50:34 AM permalink
I was at a casino where they had a blackjack game that you could do side bets if your first 2 cards tie with the dealers first 2 cards. For blackjack the payout was 400-1. It seems like that payout is high to me. On another table called blackjack high tie the odds were 50-1. can anyone tell me why the payout was so high on the first one?
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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January 15th, 2010 at 1:06:35 PM permalink
What *exactly* constitutes a tie? BJ vs BJ? Same rank for the ten card? Suited BJ vs BJ? Or exactly the same rank AND suit?

Also, how many decks are they using?
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pocketaces
pocketaces
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January 15th, 2010 at 6:25:29 PM permalink
The odds of both player and dealer having blackjack in a 6-deck game is about 1 in 461. If the only payout is for a tied blackjack, the house edge is derived from the difference between the true odds and the payout (1 in 400 in your case).

The 50:1 payout is lower because that game also has secondary payouts such as simply being dealt a blackjack yourself.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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January 16th, 2010 at 4:03:24 PM permalink
The wizard analyzed this side bet called blackjack high tie . In the side-bet he mentions the payout (on a 6 deck game was:
Blackjack tie 50
Suited blackjack 15
Suited pair 10
Blackjack 6
Pair 3
==================
As stated earlier if the only payout is only for a blackjack tie then the casino can easily afford to give 400:1 for this outcome. Since the true odds are 461.4 : 1 that gives the casino a healthy 13.2% house edge (much larger than the less than 1% house edge it has against excellent blackjack play. Now you see why casinos love side bets. A table may make more on side bets then on the main game. It should be noted that the game mentioned above with five different payouts has a house edge of 6.2% (less than half of the 400:1 game).
==================
But some people just get such a thrill out of side bets. As long as you know what you are doing then it's OK. Many people end up playing on a slot machines that retain 13% of the money. In the side bet all the money comes back in one lump sum. I watched a woman hit three royal matches in one evening. It made her whole weekend. I figure that millions of people play the lottery where the state government keeps half the money. Whatever you do can't be dumber than that. No commercial casino in the world is legally allowed to offer a game where they keep half the money.
jaldal
jaldal
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January 20th, 2010 at 9:32:27 AM permalink
any 21, first 2 cards only. you can bet on any tie 17-21. The ties are only numbers not suited
jaldal
jaldal
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January 20th, 2010 at 9:35:11 AM permalink
great info and thanks for the posts
boymimbo
boymimbo
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January 20th, 2010 at 12:20:23 PM permalink
To make this more favorable I would do a count of Aces as the shoe is played. In a six deck shoe, the odds become favourable when the ratio of cards remaining / Aces < 12.31. You could do a count of aces available to quarter decks. So you would start with a count of 1 (24/24). As soon as the aces available are two more than the number of quarter decks played, you would start betting the side bet.

For example, say there are 16 quarter decks left with 18 aces to be played. The expected return is then 4 x 18/208 x 4/13 x 4/13 x 17/207 = .002691 * 400 = 7.66% PA.
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Boney526
Boney526
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October 26th, 2012 at 10:44:01 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

To make this more favorable I would do a count of Aces as the shoe is played. In a six deck shoe, the odds become favourable when the ratio of cards remaining / Aces < 12.31. You could do a count of aces available to quarter decks. So you would start with a count of 1 (24/24). As soon as the aces available are two more than the number of quarter decks played, you would start betting the side bet.

For example, say there are 16 quarter decks left with 18 aces to be played. The expected return is then 4 x 18/208 x 4/13 x 4/13 x 17/207 = .002691 * 400 = 7.66% PA.



That's really easily countable. Using the tags -4 (ace) -1 (Ten/Face) +1 (2-9) you'd probably only need a TC around 2 to have a small player edge. (I'm estimating, maybe it'd need 3 or 4, but I doubt it. And of course variance would be really large.) Simply removing 11 pip cards gives a tiny player advantage with 6 decks, although IDK about exact correlation and I gave Aces a -4 to balance it.

It's especially countable because of the fact that it's betting on a Blackjack tie, the fact that you're betting on two blackjacks means that the edge changes per card more than if it was just one blackjack paying, say 18 to 1.
98Clubs
98Clubs
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October 26th, 2012 at 4:52:59 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

I figure that millions of people play the lottery where the state government keeps half the money. Whatever you do can't be dumber than that. No commercial casino in the world is legally allowed to offer a game where they keep half the money.



Runner-up would be scratch-offs at 1/3rd to 3/8ths... and you can scratch 20 in a minute.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
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