Blackjack fluctuations and downswings

Having counted cards for 30 years, I have experienced many blackjack "swings" of the game. Recently, I have been playing the eight deck ASM tables in Atlantic City. I only backcount (Wong) and enter at a runnung +5 or better, adjusting my bets accordingly. During the past three weeks I have experienced a downswing of 26 bets, sometimes losing 4-5 hands in a row after entering a rich shoe. I play perfect basic strategy and perform the necessary deviations. Not only is this a pain in my wallet, but it's also hard on the psyche. I know that if I plug on I should overcome this negative deviation.
Questions: a) Could the Automatic Shuffle Machines be affecting my results?
b) How many losses in a downswing would indicate that perhaps a player is using a losing system, even if counting?
c) What are some of the longest downswings recorded by the top players?

I've always been told to just keep putting the chips on the table and eventually the built in "advantage" will result in the long run. But when things like this happen, it's only natural for doubts to set in. I need some re-assurance or advice on how to maintain my confidence and playing ability. (How many losses is too many? 40? 50? 80? 200?). I read an article where a pro said it was impossible for a card counter not to show a profit during his playing lifetime.

Quote: Blackjackbob

I read an article where a pro said it was impossible for a card counter not to show a profit during his playing lifetime.

I wonder if thats true. In poker, because of the variance, the
math says its possible for a player never to have a winning year
in his whole career. Doyle Brunson almost retired a few years
ago because he hadn't had a winning session in over 4 months.
I've heard of pro BJ players quitting because because the negative
variance wiped out their BR. I think the standard is you need at
least a 100K BR to withstand the ups and downs, and that 100K is
outside your living expenses.

EvenBob, thanks for replying to my question about blackjack fluctuations and negative swings. I'm going to keep persevering and hope for a profit no matter how long it takes or until I'm $10,000 in the hole. Then? I'm a retired teacher who has always played for fun and small gains, but this negative swing has me in the doldrums. It's funny....when you're on winning streaks you're ready to write books on the subject, but when you lose all the doubts creep in. Is it OK to leave my E mail address, or is it not permitted at this site? I only signed up yesterday and really don't know much, like threads? Also, if you can relay my post to other blackjack players (if they would like to reply to my concerns) I would appreciate it. Thanks, Blackjackbob

Quote: Blackjackbob

It's funny....when you're on winning streaks you're ready to write books on the subject, but when you lose all the doubts creep in.

Its the primary reason most BJ pro's play on
teams. They pool their money for a giant BR,
which allows them to bet higher amounts. But
mostly the team concept defeats the single
player variance. If you have 6 on the team,
3 might do poorly, and chances are the other
3 will do well enough for the team to make a
profit that day.

Quote: Blackjackbob

Having counted cards for 30 years, I have experienced many blackjack "swings" of the game. Recently, I have been playing the eight deck ASM tables in Atlantic City. I only backcount (Wong) and enter at a runnung +5 or better, adjusting my bets accordingly. During the past three weeks I have experienced a downswing of 26 bets, sometimes losing 4-5 hands in a row after entering a rich shoe. I play perfect basic strategy and perform the necessary deviations. Not only is this a pain in my wallet, but it's also hard on the psyche. I know that if I plug on I should overcome this negative deviation.
Questions: a) Could the Automatic Shuffle Machines be affecting my results?
b) How many losses in a downswing would indicate that perhaps a player is using a losing system, even if counting?
c) What are some of the longest downswings recorded by the top players?

I've always been told to just keep putting the chips on the table and eventually the built in "advantage" will result in the long run. But when things like this happen, it's only natural for doubts to set in. I need some re-assurance or advice on how to maintain my confidence and playing ability. (How many losses is too many? 40? 50? 80? 200?). I read an article where a pro said it was impossible for a card counter not to show a profit during his playing lifetime.

The ASM shuffles the cards which are then dealt by the dealer exactly like a hand shuffled game. I believe they do affect my results which is why I play them when I can. The more hands per hour the better.

How have you done over the last 30 years? That should tell you a lot. Losses, down swings, losing streaks are part of the game. I've had them last a few months and I've lost over 100 units in one shoe many times. Rather than focusing on losses take stock of your game and correct any weaknesses. Once you've done that, keep in mind that most Atlantic City blackjack is mediocre at best and continues to deteriorate but it is still beatable. After you have reviewed your game and are confident that it's up to par, then by all means solider on.

It would help to know your counting method, rules of the game, your betting spread, number of decks, heat level and penetration. Have you ever been-half shoed or bet restricted? Be sure not to give information on the internet that will identify you to the casino.

Quote: Blackjackbob

I read an article where a pro said it was impossible for a card counter not to show a profit during his playing lifetime.

He must have left out the important requirements also.

It still comes down to bet size vs. bankroll and total bankroll.

Just about all BJ counters are underfunded and way over bet their small bankrolls.


Some reading about this.
Alan Krigman has some good stuff
"Some blackjack buffs - casino bosses, too - believe card counters can consistently beat the house.
Not so.
Counting yields a modest edge or advantage or over the casino.
But, edge needs numerous decisions to earn money reliably... *****This is the one of the most important part of his article***

That's not all. Solid citizens also have limited bankrolls.
The law of large numbers presupposes that they can continue playing until edge overwhelms volatility.
But this doesn't hold for those who run out of money during normal cold spells.
The following three scenarios show how this works."
MORE EDGE IN AGGRESSIVE CARD COUNTING: IS IT ALWAYS BETTER?

and
MORE EDGE IN AGGRESSIVE CARD COUNTING: BJInfo.com Forum

Good Luck.
If you have an edge in BJ, you better make millions of wagers and have a large enough Bankroll to see your lifetime profits.

I had a similar experience lately, where I've found that if I play all weekend I've come out on top by the weekend's end. Had 8 winning trips this year, including a 1600 to 21k flip, 10k to 16.1k, and 3k to 10k. But about 2 weeks ago I took a hard 7.5k loss after about 26 total hours of play over the entire weekend. Couldn't win on any positive count or piece together more than 2 hands in a row, ratcheted back my aggression to less than half of Kelly Criterion still couldn't slowly pickup, maybe that hurt me though. By the end of the weekend, I've lost hope in hi-lo as an effective system, and felt that I was getting bent over by some sort of bias I couldn't explain...


I also play AC, and actually prefer the hand shuffle to 8 deck, mostly because you can get 6 deck shoes playing hand shuffle, and they tend to have better penetration than the 8 deck shoes, and to my own anectdotes, the count seems to hold up a little more accurately to what happens. Even when I think the count is too high for any low cards to be left in the 8 decks, they keep rolling them over.

APDave,
You're absolutely correct about the AC 8 deck game. Blackjack in AC has deteriorated so much since the earlier days....most casinos are hitting the soft 17, and the penetration on some decks is ludicrous. One house makes you display a player's card if you want to play two hands. I have to shop around for decent games because it's the only city where I can play right now.
You're right about the increasing plus counts in 8 deck games. I've backcounted and entered shoes after 5 decks have been dealt with high counts only to see the count increase. Once I entered with a running +15, yet when the cut card emerged the count was +31! The big cards were stuck behind the cut card. It was devastating for double downs and no dealer busts. This seems to occur more with the ASM tables than the hand shuffled, but maybe this is just my perception rather than statistical fact.
Question: I don't know the inner workings of the ASM, but could it clump cards in certain sections purposely? For example, most players when told to cut the shoe before the first round, will cut it near the middle. Mentally break the 8 decks into four sections of two. Starting from the top down, if the ASM developed a clump of large cards in the third quadrant, then after the dealer moved the cut deck around, those large cards would end up behind the cut card. Any thoughts on this? Also, is it possible that tha ASM can develop stiffs more than statistically relevant? If more of the players are stiffed, then the busting will occur more frequently. Sure, the dealer could get stiffed too, but the player must go first...thus the problem. I often wonder just how "random" those ASM's are.
A dealer friend of mine once told me that on the ASM table he was working, a display on the ASM read that the shuffling shoe was missing a queen. How did it know this?

The Shuffle Master products can usually read the cards in the shoe -- that's how they can tell whether anything is amiss with the deck, and it's also how they can reset to fresh-deck order (at least some of them have a command for this). As to developing stiffs more than statistically expected, if that were intentionally the case then the machine would be violating all sorts of regulations. That'd be no different than using a pre-shuffled baccarat shoe which was preordained to have no ties.

I mean I dont' believe there is a nefarious setting causing more stiffs, but in 8 decks there is just so many damn cards and with the ASM popping the next shoe up so fast they can deal just 2/3s through leaving so much randomness left in the deck. I'm done trying to beat an 8 deck game, luckily on less busy nights or during the day you can catch the 6 decks with S17 for 25s often enough. And even on a busy night usually for 50. Granted they're no mid-shoe but the max's are better so you can just weather the bad shoes at minimum and spread hard on the positive ones. It's definitely worked better for me than trying to beat the 8 deck shit.

Quote: APDave

I mean I dont' believe there is a nefarious setting causing more stiffs, but in 8 decks there is just so many damn cards and with the ASM popping the next shoe up so fast they can deal just 2/3s through leaving so much randomness left in the deck. I'm done trying to beat an 8 deck game, luckily on less busy nights or during the day you can catch the 6 decks with S17 for 25s often enough. And even on a busy night usually for 50. Granted they're no mid-shoe but the max's are better so you can just weather the bad shoes at minimum and spread hard on the positive ones. It's definitely worked better for me than trying to beat the 8 deck shit.

Poor penetration has long been a problem in Atlantic City and it has nothing to do with ASMs. I'm surprised to hear that the 6 deck games have better pen than the 8 decks. I'll definitely check it out the next time I'm there.

Yea I actually crushed a 200 minimum shoe for 6600 profit a few months ago, and the pitboss was standing there visibly annoyed with the dealer for dealing that deep into the shoe. She literally dealt to half a deck heads-up with me. Twice he says "you're still dealing from this shoe?" and then "there's still cards left in this shoe? wow". Didn't mind my action though, but her cut card definitely didn't go as deep after the shuffle.

I've also had a guy on the 50 minimums deal to what I swear was the last card in the shoe one night. I was getting crushed and it didn't help me which was sad, as it is the only time I've ever seen a dealer do something like that. I think he was trying to help me get even, I was visibly getting bent over by bad cards that night. The female pitboss seemed blithely ignorant to the penetration being dealt and was cheering for me to win, as I lost a 2200 dollar bet doubled down on a 11 to a 6 up dealer card. Miracle 5, bankroll decimated, apologies and condolences to me all around.

Doesn't really make you feel better. I suggest testing the 6 decks, and I find the dealers can vary immensely on penetration levels. If nothing else I'd say a case for tipping is penetration and getting that last hand with the cut card showing. I also feel the scrutiny on multi-deck is pretty minimal especially with no mid-shoe entry, they just believe that it's too hard to beat. Although if you're stacked, and up in the 5-figure range the cut card does seem to get closer and closer to half a shoe.

googling "atlantic city blackjack ASM" brings up an interesting find: only this thread.

J'accuse! you guys are using insufferable jargonism!

Automatic Shuffling Machine, it allows them to keep popping up a new shoe with no delay for a shuffle. Causes quick action, and doesn't really cause any dilemma where they have to decide on penetration to downtime when dealing deep into a shoe.

Half-shoe'ng on a hand shuffle causes a lot of missed hands and action per hour, so they don't typically do it. However, with an ASM that downtime from the reshuffling doesn't really exist. As far as getting more stiffs from an ASM, i just stick to blaming the size of the shoe.

All kidding aside, thanks for the explanation. I had just thought all shuffling machines were "continuous" if they bothered with them.

Yea there's a difference. The ASM's drop the used up shoe down into a black box, that synchronously pops up a nice fresh new 8-deck of wonder. They still afford you the yellow cut card to put into the newly machine shuffled shoe, wherever superstition tells you to, but that's really a pittance.

Quote: APDave

Yea there's a difference. The ASM's drop the used up shoe down into a black box, that synchronously pops up a nice fresh new 8-deck of wonder. They still afford you the yellow cut card to put into the newly machine shuffled shoe, wherever superstition tells you to, but that's really a pittance.

What really matters is where the dealer puts the other yellow card .

A continuous shuffler such as the ShuffleMaster one2six is dealt from the machine unlike the ASM which is dealt from a shoe. The cards are usually returned to the machine after each hand. It is not countable while the ASM is countable.

I'm very aware the other yellow card is the important one. And my belief stands that the lack of delay on switching shoes allows them to deal at the furthest 2/3rds in on an ASM shoe. And although the 8 deck shoes are countable, with that kind of penetration your opportunities are few and far between, and there is still so many damn cards left in the shoe that even with odds in your favor the wrong card still flips over enough that I've sworn off playing 8 deck.

Quote: MathExtremist

The Shuffle Master products can usually read the cards in the shoe -- that's how they can tell whether anything is amiss with the deck,.

I always thought the Shufflemaster products only counted the number of cards, not the values. What versions can do this?

Mark

Quote: APDave

I'm very aware the other yellow card is the important one. And my belief stands that the lack of delay on switching shoes allows them to deal at the furthest 2/3rds in on an ASM shoe. And although the 8 deck shoes are countable, with that kind of penetration your opportunities are few and far between, and there is still so many damn cards left in the shoe that even with odds in your favor the wrong card still flips over enough that I've sworn off playing 8 deck.

I don't quite understand your second sentence. The ASM has nothing to do with penetration. Once the cards are removed from the machine it becomes a regular blackjack game. The penetration is determined by where the dealer places the cut card.

I know a major casino that consistently gives over 90% pen on all their 8 deck games, ASMs and hand shuffled.

I know what determines penetration... A regular oxford dictionary definition can tell you as much. I keep trying to make the obvious insinuation that ASM's remove any reason to deal very far into the deck for more hands per hour. I'll explain further:

One of the places I play, seems to place the cut card 2/3rd or less into their asm shoes, and hand shuffle I tend to see it much, much deeper.

I believe this has to do with the dilemma of why casino's do not half shoe all the time, on every shoe. They lose a massive amount of hands per hour, action, and money, constantly having to shuffle. Player's get impatient, lot's of con's to shuffling constantly.

*ASM's remove this issue as the new shoe pops up so fast, shuffle downtime is practically removed. They can freely cut down on penetration and lose very little hands per hour, and/or action.

- This may not be the case, but I believe it possible.

I also would ask what the max's are on a 90% pen game, I feel a lot of time, it's 1000 or less, so they're less worried about someone burning down the house on them with a big spread, so they sweat deep penetration much less with a low table max..

Quote: APDave

I also would ask what the max's are on a 90% pen game, I feel a lot of time, it's 1000 or less, so they're less worried about someone burning down the house on them with a big spread, so they sweat deep penetration much less with a low table max..

Thanks, I get it now. There are two different penetration levels, one for the ASMs and one for the hand shuffled decks. I've never seen that. It must be confusing to some of the relief dealers.

The games you asked about with 90% pen go up to $5000 table max. It depends on the table minimum.

I've played in Atlantic City since 1978 and have always found it somewhat sweaty. With all your big wins, you must experience a lot of heat. Can you tell us how you deal with it?

Honestly I come between 3 - 5 units on the first hand, occasionally let a bet ride when I shouldn't. I don't stand on 16 unless the count is high. I hit it on middling counts. I do the same with insurance, I don't play it at +3 and say shit like "sucker bet", I wait for +5 and above. I sit at no mid-shoe entry, so I try to ride out the bad shoes on minimum, but still occasionally double up after a loss. Although this cuts my advantagea bit, I believe you get most of it back pushing hard on that shoe you get about 1/5 times that is favorable. It only hurts when you finally get that shoe, and you still lose the majority (or all) of your hands.

One of the players next to me has at least twice this year told me "the pit boss has been staring at you", but I don't acknowledge it, I drink more of my "gin & tonic (water and ice)" and keep talking. I talk a lot, tip the dealer decently, and often ask the pit boss what the correct basic strategy play is and/or pull out the basic strategy card, I also like to ask pit bosses if they thinks I should push a big bet (they almost always say yes, so I ask when the deck is favorable). I tell people "I play hunches" all sorts of bullshit. In the end no one has insinuated I am counting, or tried to back me off. The tipping alone might keep me in good enough standing they don't back me off, and occasionally I have a losing trip, usually from a few bad swing hands that should have gone my way, large multiple splits with ensuing doubles can be so massive with a couple hundred or a g out there.

I also don't think they sweat no mid-shoe tables much, I had a dealer a while back basically chatting about the count with me, and giving me shit for not betting the appropriate amounts at the right times, I had to grit my teeth not to banter about it with him, because it was such a good opportunity to color commentate on the results and percentages, but figured it might be a bad idea to sell myself out. When showing me the burn cards, he'd say "does nothing, neutral card" or "it's a 5, but too early to influence your bet", etc. Made me wonder if I'd taken the bait if it would have been an issue.

I think I've only gotten 90% pen. on a 6 deck game, and it usually doesn't last for more than a shoe or two. Frankly I have such an abhorrence for 8-deck, even seeing that kind of deal going on, I may have a hard time sitting down. I am loathe at the counts I have lost to a 4/5/6 bailout, that just shouldn't be there anymore. But strictly speaking one shouldn't pass on that opportunity I guess, was it S17?

Do you play rated?

Quote: 1BB

Thanks, I get it now. There are two different penetration levels, one for the ASMs and one for the hand shuffled decks. I've never seen that. It must be confusing to some of the relief dealers.

I've seen cuts on the boxes for the cards that force the depth of the cut for the dealer, so no need to think about the depth of cut.

Yea I play rated, I even use a host occasionally, although, he once told me it'd be easier to comp my charges if I'd take a loss. I lost next trip. Some weekends I run 700 - 1000 comp dollars, I figure I'll let them comp till they won't. I never ever play markers though.

I know there is notches on a cut card for depth, but I absolutely am sure that some dealers cut deeper than others. And I doubt any notch sits at 90%.