Predict the 2012 election winners and losers, and official WoV contest.
October 12th, 2011 at 2:33:29 PM
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Here we go with another WoV contest. The object will be to correctly pick:
1. The GOP presidential nominee.
2. The nominee's choice for vice president.
3. The winning party in the general election.
In the event nobody gets all three right I will award points as follows: 3 points for winning party, 2 points for GOP nominee, 1 point for GOP VP. In the event that does not break the tie the winner will be chosen randomly among those tied to win, or perhaps some tie-breaker game based on the electoral college, to be decided later.
The prize will be a surprise, but not of great financial value. If you don't like my offer, a donation made to charity will also be an option.
Please submit your predictions to me by PM (private message) by 11:59 P.M., Nov 6, 2011, which is one year before election day. I will post the predictions shortly thereafter.
1. The GOP presidential nominee.
2. The nominee's choice for vice president.
3. The winning party in the general election.
In the event nobody gets all three right I will award points as follows: 3 points for winning party, 2 points for GOP nominee, 1 point for GOP VP. In the event that does not break the tie the winner will be chosen randomly among those tied to win, or perhaps some tie-breaker game based on the electoral college, to be decided later.
The prize will be a surprise, but not of great financial value. If you don't like my offer, a donation made to charity will also be an option.
Please submit your predictions to me by PM (private message) by 11:59 P.M., Nov 6, 2011, which is one year before election day. I will post the predictions shortly thereafter.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 12th, 2011 at 4:55:56 PM
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Only three entries so far.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 12th, 2011 at 5:10:59 PM
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There are 13 more debates, its going to be a long
haul.
haul.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 12th, 2011 at 5:22:18 PM
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A year and a month is a LONG time in politics.
October 13th, 2011 at 7:04:11 AM
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Quote: 7outlineawayA year and a month is a LONG time in politics.
Indeed, and it has to be worth waiting till November starts. Whoever wins is going to deserve the praise.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
October 13th, 2011 at 7:36:01 AM
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Quote: WizardOnly three entries so far.
I will wait for closer to the deadline. It may not make the guess any more valid, but I will feel better.
Since you didn't consider the possibility of multiple people getting all three answers correctly, you may want to throw in a tie-breaker.
Possibly guessing the number of popular votes that will go to the Republican team?
59,934,814 (2008)
62,040,610 (2006)
50,456,002 (2000)
October 13th, 2011 at 8:05:12 AM
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Maybe not number of popular votes, but win margin percentage. By half percent increments?
October 13th, 2011 at 8:15:49 AM
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Quote: APDaveMaybe not number of popular votes, but win margin percentage. By half percent increments?
The question is difficult enough to get all three parts correct. But usually with a tie breaker you don't specify any degree of accuracy, since you are simply looking for the closest answer. It's like jellybeans in a jar. You don't say "to the nearest 10 jellybeans" because the closest person wins. You might still get a tie, but the odds are much lower.
October 13th, 2011 at 8:24:43 AM
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It wasn't really for degree of accuracy, notice no "nearest". It's just a format for guessing the percentages. Since a sub-1% or anything between 1 to 3 is probably going to be the results. Although, .5 might be too broad a brush. Regardless the accuracy was not the point of the increments.
October 13th, 2011 at 8:36:40 AM
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Quote: pacomartinSince you didn't consider the possibility of multiple people getting all three answers correctly, you may want to throw in a tie-breaker.
Possibly guessing the number of popular votes that will go to the Republican team?
I did consider that and said that in such an event the winner would be chosen randomly or by a tie-breaker question, to be decided later.
In the Super Bowl contest I said that in the event of a tie breaker those still with a chance of winning would be asked to predict the margin of victory. Although I didn't ask for such information yet, about 60% of entrants supplied it anyway. So this time I didn't want to confuse the issue with asking for the additional details now. However, as long as you bring it up, I will probably go by margin of victory in the electoral college.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 13th, 2011 at 9:49:04 AM
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Thanks for running this Wizard. I am also going to wait, in case some scandal comes to the surface in the next few weeks. You never know.
While it is too late to change the rules for this contest, I would like to suggest that if it is run again in 2016, that a correct VP prediction receive at least the same weight as the Nominee. Guessing who the winner will pick, has got to be as hard (or harder), than picking the actual winner (e.g., John McCain).
While it is too late to change the rules for this contest, I would like to suggest that if it is run again in 2016, that a correct VP prediction receive at least the same weight as the Nominee. Guessing who the winner will pick, has got to be as hard (or harder), than picking the actual winner (e.g., John McCain).
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
October 13th, 2011 at 10:57:38 AM
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For tie-breaker, I would suggest count of Rs and Ds in House of Rep.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
October 13th, 2011 at 4:47:01 PM
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Can I put down the Detroit Lions as a candidate? :)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
October 13th, 2011 at 5:26:27 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaWhile it is too late to change the rules for this contest, I would like to suggest that if it is run again in 2016, that a correct VP prediction receive at least the same weight as the Nominee. Guessing who the winner will pick, has got to be as hard (or harder), than picking the actual winner (e.g., John McCain).
Good point. The current point system is based on the relevance of the prediction.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 2nd, 2011 at 4:59:38 PM
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Just four days left to get in your picks for the WoV 2012 election contest.
Per my own rules, since I am not adding relevant content to the thread, I am leaving you with this joke:
A group from Chicago spent a weekend gambling in Las Vegas. One of the men on that trip won $100,000. He didn't want anyone to know about it, so he decided not to return with the others, but took a later plane home -- arriving back 3 a.m. He immediately went out to the backyard of his house, dug a hole and planted the money in it. The following morning he walked outside and found only an empty hole. He noticed footsteps leading from the hole to the house next door, which was owned by a deaf-mute. On the same street lived a professor who understood sign language and was a friend of the deaf man. Grabbing his pistol, the enraged man went to awaken the professor and dragged him to the deaf man's house.
"You tell this guy that if he doesn't give me back my $100,000 I'm going to kill him!" he screamed at the professor. The professor conveyed the message to his friend, and his friend replied in sign language, "I hid it in my backyard, underneath the cherry tree."
The professor turned to the man with the gun and said, "He's not going to tell you. He said he'd rather die first."
Source: http://www.gamblingjokes.org/jokes.php?joke_id=1&cat_id=70&jtype=.
Per my own rules, since I am not adding relevant content to the thread, I am leaving you with this joke:
A group from Chicago spent a weekend gambling in Las Vegas. One of the men on that trip won $100,000. He didn't want anyone to know about it, so he decided not to return with the others, but took a later plane home -- arriving back 3 a.m. He immediately went out to the backyard of his house, dug a hole and planted the money in it. The following morning he walked outside and found only an empty hole. He noticed footsteps leading from the hole to the house next door, which was owned by a deaf-mute. On the same street lived a professor who understood sign language and was a friend of the deaf man. Grabbing his pistol, the enraged man went to awaken the professor and dragged him to the deaf man's house.
"You tell this guy that if he doesn't give me back my $100,000 I'm going to kill him!" he screamed at the professor. The professor conveyed the message to his friend, and his friend replied in sign language, "I hid it in my backyard, underneath the cherry tree."
The professor turned to the man with the gun and said, "He's not going to tell you. He said he'd rather die first."
Source: http://www.gamblingjokes.org/jokes.php?joke_id=1&cat_id=70&jtype=.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 2nd, 2011 at 5:47:45 PM
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Quote: WizardJust four days left to get in your picks for the WoV 2012 election contest.
Knowing that you bet on elections do you think the survey will give you any meaningful insight into what the good or bad bets are?
Can you bet elections through Vegas or do they have to be placed on something like Intrade?
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because."
— E.E. Cummings
November 2nd, 2011 at 7:28:09 PM
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Quote: Scotty71Can you bet elections through Vegas or do they have to be placed on something like Intrade?
The law was recently changed to allow wagering on non-sporting events, so I presume that elections are fair game. However, I have not seen it happen yet. I think the law was changed just before the 2010 elections.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 2nd, 2011 at 8:16:25 PM
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Quote: WizardPer my own rules, since I am not adding relevant content to the thread, I am leaving you with this joke:
Mean joke.
You may want to try a somewhat less mean version along the same lines:
A very rich man is dying and he summons his doctor, his priest and his lawyer. He tells them "Gentlemen, I've heard throughout my life that I can't take my money with me when I die. As I lay at death's door now, I want to try anyway. Each of you will receive one million dollars in gold ingots, which you are instructed to place inside my coffin when I'm buried. If this is agreeable to you, of course."
The men agree and each walks out of the man's house with a small box full of gold.
Shortly thereafter the rich man dies and a burial is held. The three men attend and each solemnly places his box inside the coffin. Afterwards they go to a bar to hold their own wake.
The priest tells the other two "I must confess to someone. I removed a gold bar and used the money for our charitable projects at the church. I know it was theft, and a betrayal of a faithful if rebellious parishioner, but we needed the money so badly."
The doctor responds, "I must confess, too father. I also removed an ingot to use for improvements at the free clinic. I figured our poor patients need the money more than our dear departed friend does."
The lawyer shakes his head and says "You should both be ashamed of yourselves, betraying a dead man's trust like that."
"You actually placed the full million in the coffin?" The priest asked incredulously.
"Every penny," the lawyer says.
"I find that hard to believe," the doctor says.
"You may as well believe it. Father, I swear to God right here in front of you that I fulfilled my promise. I placed a box in our friend's casket containing a check for one million dollars."
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
November 3rd, 2011 at 5:25:39 AM
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Quote: NareedEach of you will receive one million dollars in gold ingots...
As gold is now $700,000 per ingot, you can tell the age of this joke.
November 3rd, 2011 at 7:40:56 AM
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Quote: pacomartinAs gold is now $700,000 per ingot, you can tell the age of this joke.
It's bad manners to analyze a joke. Besides, was it not even 10 years ago that gold was declared to be dead as a store of value? Most people don't know what an ingot is or how much one is worth. Finally, change it to gold coins if you'd rather.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
November 5th, 2011 at 2:36:50 AM
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Quote: Wizard
Please submit your predictions to me by PM (private message) by 11:59 P.M., Nov 6, 2011, which is one year before election day. I will post the predictions shortly thereafter.
still havent done mine, but will
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
November 5th, 2011 at 5:33:53 AM
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Quote: WizardThe law was recently changed to allow wagering on non-sporting events, so I presume that elections are fair game. However, I have not seen it happen yet. I think the law was changed just before the 2010 elections.
I think the law about betting on elections was at the federal level. At least for a POTUS election.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
November 6th, 2011 at 5:48:04 PM
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Just six more hours to get in your picks.
Per my thumb-tacking rule, here is my joke:
Knock Knock!
Who’s there?
to!
to who?
to whom!
Per my thumb-tacking rule, here is my joke:
Knock Knock!
Who’s there?
to!
to who?
to whom!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 7th, 2011 at 6:13:57 AM
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Here are the picks!
| Member | Rep Winner | VP | Party to Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| APDave | Herman Cain | Newt Gingrich | Dem |
| avargov | Mitt Romney | Eric Cantor | Dem |
| Ayecarumba | Mitt Romney | Jon Huntsman | Dem |
| AZDuffman | Rick Perry | Rick Santorum | Rep |
| bigfoot66 | Mitt Romney | Herman Cain | Rep |
| boymimbo | Mitt Romney | Gary Johnson | Dem |
| EvenBob | Mitt Romney | Herman Cain | Rep |
| FinsRule | Rick Perry | Michelle Bachman | Dem |
| FrGamble | Mitt Romney | Marco Rubio | Rep |
| mickpk | Mitt Romney | Jeb Bush | Dem |
| Nareed | Herman Cain | Mitt Romney | Rep |
| odiousgambit | Mitt Romney | Mike Huckabee | Rep |
| rdw4potus | Mitt Romney | Jon Huntsman | Dem |
| Scotty71 | Mitt Romney | Marco Rubio | Rep |
| SONBP2 | Mitt Romney | Marco Rubio | Dem |
| SOOPOO | Mitt Romney | Herman Cain | Dem |
| thecesspit | Mitt Romney | Rick Perry | Rep |
| toastcmu | Mitt Romney | Jon Huntsman | Dem |
| vert1276 | Mitt Romney | Marco Rubio | Rep |
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 7th, 2011 at 6:19:23 AM
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listing error with Fr. Gamble?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
November 7th, 2011 at 6:32:22 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitlisting error with Fr. Gamble?
Dang. I'll have to ask him what he picked. I'm sure he wouldn't lie.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 7th, 2011 at 6:41:06 AM
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I think Romney/Romney is a strong pick. What are the odds that he won't be in one of those two positions?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 7th, 2011 at 6:49:25 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitlisting error with Fr. Gamble?
Why? If anyone can be his own VP it would be Romney. He has taken enough position per issue for two people.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
November 7th, 2011 at 6:56:57 AM
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I thought Cain was looking great until all this media slander about harassment....
PERRY IS SABOTAGING HIM!!!
PERRY IS SABOTAGING HIM!!!
November 7th, 2011 at 7:30:22 AM
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Quote: APDaveI thought Cain was looking great until all this media slander about harassment....
He's a new guy, so this was to be expected. Clinton was trying to hump everything that moves like a horny Chihuahuahua.
November 7th, 2011 at 7:41:39 AM
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Quote: APDaveI thought Cain was looking great until all this media slander about harassment....
PERRY IS SABOTAGING HIM!!!
Cain is his own worst enemy. I really think they are using him to get some platform ideas out (like 999) that candidates can run with later. He might get a cabinet position or turn it into a future run for gov or senator? Clintons scandals were much wore IMO from a PR standpoint so one can certainly bounce back. It will come down to money and he wont get much. Romney is the guy that can raise the most cash and will likely get the nod. Perry comes off as a maniac name caller, threatening Bernanke was dumb. Controlling political language wins elections the voters... are going to vote with who has the best talking points on the economy, they are too distracted to understand the nuances of monetary policy and besides that toothpaste is already out of the tube and has been ever since we left the gold standard. BTW I was a libertarian before it was cool and now I can name 20 acquaintances who call themselves "conservative constitutionalists" 10 years ago they would have called themselves family values conservatives because they were too stupid to know that GWB & Cheney wiped their asses with the constitution at every opportunity. Some people like to be with the "in" crowd.
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because."
— E.E. Cummings
November 7th, 2011 at 7:50:15 AM
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Quote: pacomartinHe's a new guy, so this was to be expected. Clinton was trying to hump everything that moves like a horny Chihuahuahua.
Yep- Cain is his own worst enemy. I really think they are using him to get some platform ideas out (like 999) that candidates can run with later. He might get a cabinet position or turn it into a future run for gov or senator? Clintons scandals were much wore IMO from a PR standpoint so one can certainly bounce back. It will come down to money and he wont get much. Romney is the guy that can raise the most cash and will likely get the nod. Perry comes off as a maniac name caller, threatening Bernanke was dumb. Controlling political language wins elections the voters... are going to vote with who has the best talking points on the economy, they are too distracted to understand the nuances of monetary policy and besides that toothpaste is already out of the tube and has been ever since we left the gold standard. BTW I was a libertarian before it was cool (now I am a free agent)and now I can name 20 acquaintances who call themselves "conservative constitutionalists" 10 years ago they would have called themselves family values conservatives because they were too stupid to know that GWB & Cheney wiped their asses with the constitution at every opportunity and didnt care family values crowd beyond a vote. It is ALWAYS about money!!
Edit: sorry about the dupe, getting a bad connection today.
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because."
— E.E. Cummings
November 7th, 2011 at 9:31:10 AM
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Well being that was my pick, I hope he bounces back, and people ride the Mormonism is a cult card hard. That could really mess with Romney if that comes back into focus. Or so I hope.
November 7th, 2011 at 9:35:03 AM
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I only picked Perry as a VP cos' I panicked and couldn't think of another name... I'd probably have picked Cain before this scandal, but having seen how he's coping with it... he's not going to last, but will probably parlay his exposure into something.
Romney's running mate will probably not be a Republican POTUS candidate, and I suspect someone a foreigner like me has never heard of.
Romney's running mate will probably not be a Republican POTUS candidate, and I suspect someone a foreigner like me has never heard of.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
November 7th, 2011 at 9:56:32 AM
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Quote: Scotty71BTW I was a libertarian before it was cool and now I can name 20 acquaintances who call themselves "conservative constitutionalists" 10 years ago they would have called themselves family values conservatives because they were too stupid to know that GWB & Cheney wiped their asses with the constitution at every opportunity. Some people like to be with the "in" crowd.
So Can I assume that you support Dr. Paul or perhaps the good Governor Gary Johnson?
Vote for Nobody 2020!
November 7th, 2011 at 11:43:49 AM
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Quote: bigfoot66So Can I assume that you support Dr. Paul or perhaps the good Governor Gary Johnson?
He (Paul) might be one candidate for pres I might actually give money to, but I don't think he will be in the running. I am pretty much a free agent & dont vote any party line. I want to vote for the best candidate with a shot at the job. Jimmy Carter was probably more fiscally conservative than half the current Republicans in office.
If Paul did get the job you would probably see inflation IMO because he would attempt to tighten money supply which should force rates up dramatically and bury anyone invested in bond funds. It'll be a fun show to watch. Never a dull moment.
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because."
— E.E. Cummings
November 7th, 2011 at 12:06:35 PM
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Quote: WizardHere are the picks!
No pick from the Wizard?
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because."
— E.E. Cummings
November 7th, 2011 at 12:32:24 PM
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Quote: Scotty71
If Paul did get the job you would probably see inflation IMO because he would attempt to tighten money supply which should force rates up dramatically and bury anyone invested in bond funds. It'll be a fun show to watch. Never a dull moment.
I agree that Paul is an interesting candidate. On the one hand, I like that he doesn't temper what he says. On the other hand, tempering what he says would make him so much more electable.
Are you sure you're looking at the monetary policy in this quote correctly? I think that reducing the money supply increases the value of each dollar, which decreases the dollar-denominated cost of hard goods.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 7th, 2011 at 1:11:07 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusI agree that Paul is an interesting candidate. On the one hand, I like that he doesn't temper what he says. On the other hand, tempering what he says would make him so much more electable.
Are you sure you're looking at the monetary policy in this quote correctly? I think that reducing the money supply increases the value of each dollar, which decreases the dollar-denominated cost of hard goods.
I may not have expressed it effectively in an attempt to be succinct
Depends on how you look at it, it is circular in nature but If you tighten money supply you can do it in 2 ways.
1. You make the amount of credit finite (essentially what the gold standard did)
2. You raise rates on reserves (and ultimately borrowing) which effectively reduces the amount of money in supply for lending.
I will expand on it later when I have more time to express my thoughts in a large macro model I am not an econ guy in the pure sense... but my quick point would be ultimately the value of a bond is a function of it's credit quality, value of the cash flows it pays (if any), and competing interest rates for new or alternative investments.
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because."
— E.E. Cummings
July 17th, 2012 at 5:24:44 PM
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Quote: WizardHere are the picks!
Member Rep Winner VP Party to Win APDave Herman Cain Newt Gingrich Dem avargov Mitt Romney Eric Cantor Dem Ayecarumba Mitt Romney Jon Huntsman Dem AZDuffman Rick Perry Rick Santorum Rep bigfoot66 Mitt Romney Herman Cain Rep boymimbo Mitt Romney Gary Johnson Dem EvenBob Mitt Romney Herman Cain Rep FinsRule Rick Perry Michelle Bachman Dem FrGamble Mitt Romney Marco Rubio Rep mickpk Mitt Romney Jeb Bush Dem Nareed Herman Cain Mitt Romney Rep odiousgambit Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee Rep rdw4potus Mitt Romney Jon Huntsman Dem Scotty71 Mitt Romney Marco Rubio Rep SONBP2 Mitt Romney Marco Rubio Dem SOOPOO Mitt Romney Herman Cain Dem thecesspit Mitt Romney Rick Perry Rep toastcmu Mitt Romney Jon Huntsman Dem vert1276 Mitt Romney Marco Rubio Rep
More noise recently about Romney's VP pick. Here are the leaders according to the NY Times:
Chris Christie - Gov. of New Jersey
Bobby Jindal - Gov. of Louisiana
Robert F. McDonnell - Gov. of Virginia
Tim Pawlenty - Ex. Gov. of Minnesota
Rob Portman - Ohio Senator
Marco Rubio - Florida Senator
Paul D. Ryan - Wisconsin Rep.
John Thune - South Dakota Senator
Unfortunately, my pick, Jon Huntsman appears to be off the radar. This leads me to root for "anyone but Rubio", despite the fact that he might be a good VP.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
July 17th, 2012 at 5:30:51 PM
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Quote: Ayecarumba[
More noise recently about Romney's VP pick. Here are the leaders according to the NY Times:
Chris Christie - Gov. of New Jersey
Bobby Jindal - Gov. of Louisiana
Robert F. McDonnell - Gov. of Virginia
Tim Pawlenty - Ex. Gov. of Minnesota
Rob Portman - Ohio Senator
Marco Rubio - Florida Senator
Paul D. Ryan - Wisconsin Rep.
John Thune - South Dakota Senator
Unfortunately, my pick, Jon Huntsman appears to be off the radar. This leads me to root for "anyone but Rubio", despite the fact that he might be a good VP.
I think that Times thing has not been updated recently. The latest has centered around TPaw, Condi Rice, Portman, and, surging late, Paul Ryan. I think it's TPaw, Ryan, or Jindal...
July 17th, 2012 at 10:18:39 PM
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According to intrade, Tim Portman has a 30% chance, and Tim Pawlenty 25%, of being chosen the GOP VP candidate. Nobody picked them. The next on the list is Marco Rubio at 8.5%. He was picked by FrGamble, Scotty71, SONBP2, and vert1276. Also according to intrade, Obama has a 56% chance of winning. Unless Rubio comes through, nobody is likely to sweep the contest.
Here again are the rules, "In the event nobody gets all three right I will award points as follows: 3 points for winning party, 2 points for GOP nominee, 1 point for GOP VP. In the event that does not break the tie the winner will be chosen randomly among those tied to win, or perhaps some tie-breaker game based on the electoral college, to be decided later."
I tend to think there is going to be a tie between those picking Romney and the party to win. Once Romney declares somebody else besides Rubio and the others on the list I'll have to think of a tie-break only open to those with a chance to win.
Here again are the rules, "In the event nobody gets all three right I will award points as follows: 3 points for winning party, 2 points for GOP nominee, 1 point for GOP VP. In the event that does not break the tie the winner will be chosen randomly among those tied to win, or perhaps some tie-breaker game based on the electoral college, to be decided later."
I tend to think there is going to be a tie between those picking Romney and the party to win. Once Romney declares somebody else besides Rubio and the others on the list I'll have to think of a tie-break only open to those with a chance to win.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 17th, 2012 at 10:36:47 PM
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Quote: WizardAccording to intrade, .
Intrade is meaningless until 48 hours before
any election. At this time in 2008 they predicted
the Right would win the House. They didn't. But
2 days before the election they predicted they
would not win the house.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 17th, 2012 at 10:55:30 PM
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Quote: EvenBobIntrade is meaningless until 48 hours before any election.
Then you should open an account there, and take advantage of the market's ignorance.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 17th, 2012 at 11:15:15 PM
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Quote: WizardThen you should open an account there, and take advantage of the market's ignorance.
Somebody can miss a question in a debate and he drops 10
points on Intrade. No thanks. The public isn't quite that fickle.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 18th, 2012 at 5:13:41 AM
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Quote: Wizard
I tend to think there is going to be a tie between those picking Romney and the party to win. Once Romney declares somebody else besides Rubio and the others on the list I'll have to think of a tie-break only open to those with a chance to win.
As someone who has picked Cain, I am hoping for the tie break! I am recommending a free throw contest.
July 19th, 2012 at 10:38:02 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOAs someone who has picked Cain, I am hoping for the tie break! I am recommending a free throw contest.
My suggestion would be a "McNugget" eating throwdown (no stand-ins accepted)...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
July 19th, 2012 at 11:42:06 AM
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Quote: EvenBobIntrade is meaningless until 48 hours before any election.
I said this in another post, but Kerry would have had a tie with only 37K votes in 2008. That election is not popularly remembered as close, largely because Bush went on TV and talked so much about receiving a "mandate" from the people. It wouldn't be a total shock if this one is too close to call 48 hours before the election.
NM, 5,988 : 0.8%
IA, 10,059 : 0.7%
NV, 21,500 : 2.6%
Of course, I thought the 2008 election would be close. It's like one pundit said, all of a sudden when people got used to the idea that Obama was electable, there was a mad rush to his side in the final few weeks.
July 19th, 2012 at 12:06:32 PM
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Quote: pacomartinI said this in another post, but Kerry would have had a tie with only 37K votes in 2008. That election is not popularly remembered as close, largely because Bush went on TV and talked so much about receiving a "mandate" from the people. It wouldn't be a total shock if this one is too close to call 48 hours before the election.
I think you mean 2004?
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
August 11th, 2012 at 2:23:52 PM
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The number of forum members to predict the GOP VP candidate to be Paul Ryan -- Zero. So, clearly we will need something else as a tiebreaker for correctly getting the winning candidate. The tie breaker will be to guess the electoral college results. The person coming closest of those who already picked the winner correctly will win the contest. So, if you have changed your mind on the party to win, you should still base your electoral college prediction assuming you are right in the party to win.
So, if you're in the table below, please send you prediction to me by PM. If you're not, please don't.
So, if you're in the table below, please send you prediction to me by PM. If you're not, please don't.
Quote: WizardHere are the picks!
Member Rep Winner VP Party to Win APDave Herman Cain Newt Gingrich Dem avargov Mitt Romney Eric Cantor Dem Ayecarumba Mitt Romney Jon Huntsman Dem AZDuffman Rick Perry Rick Santorum Rep bigfoot66 Mitt Romney Herman Cain Rep boymimbo Mitt Romney Gary Johnson Dem EvenBob Mitt Romney Herman Cain Rep FinsRule Rick Perry Michelle Bachman Dem FrGamble Mitt Romney Marco Rubio Rep mickpk Mitt Romney Jeb Bush Dem Nareed Herman Cain Mitt Romney Rep odiousgambit Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee Rep rdw4potus Mitt Romney Jon Huntsman Dem Scotty71 Mitt Romney Marco Rubio Rep SONBP2 Mitt Romney Marco Rubio Dem SOOPOO Mitt Romney Herman Cain Dem thecesspit Mitt Romney Rick Perry Rep toastcmu Mitt Romney Jon Huntsman Dem vert1276 Mitt Romney Marco Rubio Rep
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
