Vegas Highest Probability Bet
Quote: OnceDearQuote: rouminthank you all. feedback and suggestions were very helpful. I was looking for a grind play and did not know about craps iron cross. very cool
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If you want a grind play, and some potential profit, bet 35 numbers on a single zero roulette.
On those occasions where a zero is going to land, don't bet that spin.
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LOL, I lost my psychic abilities last year
Quote: VenthusIf you're looking at craps, how about laying the 2/12 on crapless craps?
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I didn't know players could do that. I looked up the Nevada Gaming rules, which say the operator may or may not offer lay bets as long as a 5% vig is taken.
Can anyone name a casino that does offer them?
As to the question at hand, has anyone suggested another single bet, as opposed to a combination of them, with more than the 2/3 chance of winning of laying the 4 or 10 in conventional craps?
30 ways to win, 6 ways to lose, 11.11% edge which is about right for a hop bet.
It would take some explaining to the crew but they might take it, especially from a high roller / good tipper. I've never made a hop bet but my understanding is that it's a custom bet for any number and any version of that number to come up on the next roll
Quote: Ace2I suppose you could get creative with a single hop bet...like "hop all numbers except the seven" for a 1 to 15 payout.
30 ways to win, 6 ways to lose, 11.11% edge which is about right for a hop bet.
It would take some explaining to the crew but they might take it, especially from a high roller / good tipper. I've never made a hop bet but my understanding is that it's a custom bet for any number and any version of that number to come up on the next roll
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Hopping all the numbers except the 7 for $1 each is a total wager of $12 to win $16 except for the 7 and the hard 4,6,8,& 10 plus the 2 and 12. That is 24 ways to win and 12 ways to lose. Not 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose. In order to get all 30 ways to win, one must also hop the hard numbers plus the 2 & 12.
tuttigym
I said all the numbers except 7 not all the point numbers except 7. 30 ways to win, 6 ways to loseQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2I suppose you could get creative with a single hop bet...like "hop all numbers except the seven" for a 1 to 15 payout.
30 ways to win, 6 ways to lose, 11.11% edge which is about right for a hop bet.
It would take some explaining to the crew but they might take it, especially from a high roller / good tipper. I've never made a hop bet but my understanding is that it's a custom bet for any number and any version of that number to come up on the next roll
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Hopping all the numbers except the 7 for $1 each is a total wager of $12 to win $16 except for the 7 and the hard 4,6,8,& 10 plus the 2 and 12. That is 24 ways to win and 12 ways to lose. Not 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose. In order to get all 30 ways to win, one must also hop the hard numbers plus the 2 & 12.
tuttigym
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And I said a single hop bet not several bets
Back to the original question: isnt a simple black or red, Or pass or don't pass what the OP wants?
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Quote: Ace2I said all the numbers except 7 not all the point numbers except 7. 30 ways to win, 6 ways to loseQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2I suppose you could get creative with a single hop bet...like "hop all numbers except the seven" for a 1 to 15 payout.
30 ways to win, 6 ways to lose, 11.11% edge which is about right for a hop bet.
It would take some explaining to the crew but they might take it, especially from a high roller / good tipper. I've never made a hop bet but my understanding is that it's a custom bet for any number and any version of that number to come up on the next roll
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Hopping all the numbers except the 7 for $1 each is a total wager of $12 to win $16 except for the 7 and the hard 4,6,8,& 10 plus the 2 and 12. That is 24 ways to win and 12 ways to lose. Not 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose. In order to get all 30 ways to win, one must also hop the hard numbers plus the 2 & 12.
tuttigym
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And I said a single hop bet not several bets
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Read your post again! A single hop bet is $1 for one number, i.e., 1/3 (4) that pays 15-1. "hop all the numbers except the 7" means wagering $18 on a given roll of the dice. That is several hop bets.
tuttigym
1,3
2,2
3,2
1,4
1,5
2,4
3,3
4,4
6,2
5,3
4,5
6,3
5,5
6,4
That's 14.
Lowest pay is 15
Highest pay is 30
Any 2,3,11,12,7 and you lose 14
If you add the horn numbers there are 18 bets. Unless you hit a hardway or a 2,12 you lose.
Quote: AlanMendelsonJust for fun, all the hop bets:
1,3
2,2
3,2
1,4
1,5
2,4
3,3
4,4
6,2
5,3
4,5
6,3
5,5
6,4
That's 14.
Lowest pay is 15
Highest pay is 30
Any 2,3,11,12,7 and you lose 14
If you add the horn numbers there are 18 bets. Unless you hit a hardway or a 2,12 you lose.
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If you wanted more balance then the bet should be:
$2 on each soft hops (except 7) and 3 and 11.
$1 on hard hops and 2 and 12
That’s $30 wagered. If a seven hits you lose $30. Anything else you win $1 or $2. ($30 in win plus keep the $1 or $2 bet on the winning roll.)
Atrocious EV but a winner 5/6 of the time.
Quote: unJonQuote: AlanMendelsonJust for fun, all the hop bets:
1,3
2,2
3,2
1,4
1,5
2,4
3,3
4,4
6,2
5,3
4,5
6,3
5,5
6,4
That's 14.
Lowest pay is 15
Highest pay is 30
Any 2,3,11,12,7 and you lose 14
If you add the horn numbers there are 18 bets. Unless you hit a hardway or a 2,12 you lose.
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If you wanted more balance then the bet should be:
$2 on each soft hops (except 7) and 3 and 11.
$1 on hard hops and 2 and 12
That’s $30 wagered. If a seven hits you lose $30. Anything else you win $1 or $2. ($30 in win plus keep the $1 or $2 bet on the winning roll.)
Atrocious EV but a winner 5/6 of the time.
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Since I'm bad at math... compare your numbers with making just a flat bet on pass or DP.
Thanks.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: unJonQuote: AlanMendelsonJust for fun, all the hop bets:
1,3
2,2
3,2
1,4
1,5
2,4
3,3
4,4
6,2
5,3
4,5
6,3
5,5
6,4
That's 14.
Lowest pay is 15
Highest pay is 30
Any 2,3,11,12,7 and you lose 14
If you add the horn numbers there are 18 bets. Unless you hit a hardway or a 2,12 you lose.
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If you wanted more balance then the bet should be:
$2 on each soft hops (except 7) and 3 and 11.
$1 on hard hops and 2 and 12
That’s $30 wagered. If a seven hits you lose $30. Anything else you win $1 or $2. ($30 in win plus keep the $1 or $2 bet on the winning roll.)
Atrocious EV but a winner 5/6 of the time.
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Since I'm bad at math... compare your numbers with making just a flat bet on pass or DP.
Thanks.
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To what end? Has nothing to do with OP’s question. OP liked the answer of covering all but one spot on roulette. Or did you miss that.
Baltimore Orioles: +200
Evil empire NY Yankees: -250
Assuming we split the juice, for a fair line of -225, that implies the probability of the NYY winning is 69.23%.
Quote: WizardAs yet another idea, one could make a sports bet on a big favorite. Looking at today, for example, we have the following MLB game:
Baltimore Orioles: +200
Evil empire NY Yankees: -250
Assuming we split the juice, for a fair line of -225, that implies the probability of the NYY winning is 69.23%.
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Good one. Here’s an even more unbalanced tennis line:
Quote: WizardAs yet another idea, one could make a sports bet on a big favorite. Looking at today, for example, we have the following MLB game:
Baltimore Orioles: +200
Evil empire NY Yankees: -250
Assuming we split the juice, for a fair line of -225, that implies the probability of the NYY winning is 69.23%.
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The best team in baseball playing one of the worse, at home and with their Ace on the mound would win this game seven out of ten times on average. Just not last night.
Quote: unJon
To what end? Has nothing to do with OP’s question. OP liked the answer of covering all but one spot on roulette. Or did you miss that.
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Doesnt the roulette bet win only $1?
With a pass or DP he has a chance to double his money.
Let's say you had $35 to risk. Would you use it to win $1 or use it to win $35 ?
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: unJon
To what end? Has nothing to do with OP’s question. OP liked the answer of covering all but one spot on roulette. Or did you miss that.
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Doesnt the roulette bet win only $1?
With a pass or DP he has a chance to double his money.
Let's say you had $35 to risk. Would you use it to win $1 or use it to win $35 ?
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Reread the OP and the rest of the thread. He is looking for a bet that wins with the highest probability, irrespective of what it pays.
I now understand better your position in the two dice thread.
In the lay bet in his question he'd be winning slightly less than 50% of his wager.
Quote: rouminDoes anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
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Quote: AlanMendelsonPerhaps we should ask the OP if he'd be happy winning $1.
In the lay bet in his question he'd be winning slightly less than 50% of his wager.Quote: rouminDoes anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
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Covering 35 numbers and wining $1 qualifies, but obviously not attractive. 66-80% winning odds is my target.
Quote: rouminQuote: AlanMendelsonPerhaps we should ask the OP if he'd be happy winning $1.
In the lay bet in his question he'd be winning slightly less than 50% of his wager.Quote: rouminDoes anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
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Covering 35 numbers and wining $1 qualifies, but obviously not attractive. 66-80% winning odds is my target.
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Outside of a sports bet I think the best you'll do in a casino is 49%
Quote: rouminWhat do you mean? The probability of winning a lay 4 or 10 bet is 66.67%
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Go for it.
Quote: AlanMendelson
Quote: rouminDoes anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
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Outside of a sports bet I think the best you'll do in a casino is 49%
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So, Alan.... He can't straddle two columns of roulette to give 64.8% probability of winning? One Bet. One Chip
Quote: OnceDearQuote: AlanMendelson
Quote: rouminDoes anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
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Outside of a sports bet I think the best you'll do in a casino is 49%
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So, Alan.... He can't straddle two columns of roulette to give 64.8% probability of winning? One Bet. One Chip
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Go for it.
Also, I don't quite get why, but it says odds on 2 pay 6:1, but odds on 12 pay 2:1. Yes, less than odds on 11, which is 3:1.
https://casino.harringtonraceway.com/sites/default/files/pdf/Crapless%20Craps.pdf
Edit: "Roll the dice, place a pass line wager, and discover all the ways you can win at crapless crap!"... A singular crap?
Quote: VenthusRegarding laying the 2/12 on Crapless... There was an info sheet from the Harrington Raceway and Casino (Delaware) that explicitly lists Lay 2/12 as paying 1 to 6, so I assumed they offer it?
Also, I don't quite get why, but it says odds on 2 pay 6:1, but odds on 12 pay 2:1. Yes, less than odds on 11, which is 3:1.
https://casino.harringtonraceway.com/sites/default/files/pdf/Crapless%20Craps.pdf
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Was the lay on 2/12 a special promotion? Was any other table bet required?
If a lay on 2/12 were available in Vegas I'd cater in my meals.
