Poll

2 votes (25%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (12.5%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (37.5%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (12.5%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (25%)

8 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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June 22nd, 2020 at 7:31:15 AM permalink
Let me preface this post by reviewing site policy on the Coronavirus. I don't mind scientific-based discussion about it, even if not directly gambling related. However, the rule against political statements is still enforced. Granted, this can be a fine line. Any post with the name of a political party of the name of any politician is probably going to cross the "political statement" line.

That said, in answering the question about how quickly to re-open, I got to wondering what a life is worth, at least based on lives lost vs. economic wealth lost. Here are some statistics:



If we assume the economic cost of the CV in 2020 is the difference between 2019 growth and the projected 2020 decline, that is a drop of 8.1%. Compared to the entire 21.43 trillion size of the GDP, that is a drop of 1.736 trillion.

At the current rate, there are 627 CV deaths per day. If we consider the 122,247 deaths thus far and assume that same rate the rest of the year, we would be at 242,631 deaths by the end of 2020. However, the death rate is decreasing slowly. To just pull a number out of thin air, let's cut future deaths by 50%, to account for the decreasing death rate. That would give us 182,439 deaths in 2020.

Dividing the cost of 1.736 trillion by 182,439 deaths, we get lost economic value per death of 9.5 million.

This does not consider that the deaths are not random people, but generally older and sicker. It also does not consider the cost of people who get CV and survive.

What do you think? The question for the poll is what is the economic value of the average life lost due to CV?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
darkoz
darkoz
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June 22nd, 2020 at 8:09:42 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let me preface this post by reviewing site policy on the Coronavirus. I don't mind scientific-based discussion about it, even if not directly gambling related. However, the rule against political statements is still enforced. Granted, this can be a fine line. Any post with the name of a political party of the name of any politician is probably going to cross the "political statement" line.

That said, in answering the question about how quickly to re-open, I got to wondering what a life is worth, at least based on lives lost vs. economic wealth lost. Here are some statistics:



If we assume the economic cost of the CV in 2020 is the difference between 2019 growth and the projected 2020 decline, that is a drop of 8.1%. Compared to the entire 21.43 trillion size of the GDP, that is a drop of 1.736 trillion.

At the current rate, there are 627 CV deaths per day. If we consider the 122,247 deaths thus far and assume that same rate the rest of the year, we would be at 242,631 deaths by the end of 2020. However, the death rate is decreasing slowly. To just pull a number out of thin air, let's cut future deaths by 50%, to account for the decreasing death rate. That would give us 182,439 deaths in 2020.

Dividing the cost of 1.736 trillion by 182,439 deaths, we get lost economic value per death of 9.5 million.

This does not consider that the deaths are not random people, but generally older and sicker. It also does not consider the cost of people who get CV and survive.

What do you think? The question for the poll is what is the economic value of the average life lost due to CV?



Wiz, I find the estimate of the deaths to be incalculable at this moment.

Deaths are declining but to halve the remaining deaths for the rest of the year is probably not accurate.

There is a possibility of a treatment discovery within the next two months that could reduce the mortality rate by 80 or 90% (see my Leronlimab thread)

Unfortunately there is also the possibility of a second wave in the fall that is even more deadly than the current one. This fear is based on historical data of viruses in the past particularly the Spanish Flu which killed about a million worldwide in the first wave followed by forty plus million the second wave (,same year in the fall).

Perhaps a few variations of the possibilities would be a better excercise
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DJTeddyBear
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June 22nd, 2020 at 8:11:02 AM permalink
Most of what I'm about to post, I already posted twice on Twitter. Once in early April in response to something Scott / Vital Vegas said on the Melissa Vegas podcast, then a couple weeks later in response to Mayor Goodman's CNN interview with Anderson Cooper.

In both cases, I agreed with most of what they said, but disagreed with the way they phrased it.

Anyway...

Is it immoral to put a life on a balance sheet? Maybe. Maybe not.

While lives will be lost if no precautions are taken, lives will also be lost BECAUSE of the precautions - particularly if taken to extremes.

I've been saying since mid-March, there's no way we come out of this without a major recession. Even in good times, there are those people who, for whatever reason, find themselves under a mountain of debt where recovery seems impossible. The inevitable recession will only exacerbate that.

While extreme, for some, suicide becomes the solution. Others make the slightly less extreme choice of avoiding medical treatment or not purchasing medications. Some find themselves slipping into homelessness.

Or any of a variety of other scenarios, none of which can be described as a favorable way to live.

THAT'S what needs to be put in the balance.

Are some lives lost worth preventing that sort of outcome? Is some number of lives today, worth a potentially greater number of lives and altered lifestyles several years from now?

Bottom line: if we don't all get back to work soon, that's where we'll find ourselves.
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DRich
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June 22nd, 2020 at 8:24:36 AM permalink
I personally think individual lives are worth very little. If I am not mistaken the birth rate is higher than the death rate so it isn't likely that humans willbe extinct any time soon.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Armagedden
Armagedden
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June 22nd, 2020 at 8:32:06 AM permalink
How much is a life worth during the war of covid19?
A bench mark for a life in $$$$$ is at least worth $12,000,000 per the lawsuit case of Keller vs Madaris.

A Phoenix casino should be concerned when its security guard's lawyer can prove he catches COVID19 at work. The casino will be expected to pay $12,000,000 for the life of the security guard.

Hmm... lawyers have been salivating over the Apple's deep pockets, and perhaps that's why Apple Stores are closed down again in Arizona in fear of covid19 lawsuits.
odiousgambit
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June 22nd, 2020 at 8:51:33 AM permalink
One of your poll statements to vote on is "No expense should be spared to save one life." So that makes me think that you are calculating the cost of efforts to contain the virus, however, unless I missed something, you are going with the assumption that if we had not shut businesses down etc the economy would have grown normally. I think that is an incorrect assumption, it is quite likely we would have had a recession due to people refusing to fly, eat out, go to work, etc. on their own. Therefore in spite of your working so hard on this , the figure is going to remain unknown.

Or I don't understand what you meant to calculate
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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June 22nd, 2020 at 8:56:25 AM permalink
and there's this [leaving footnote numbers there due to laziness]

Quote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life ... "The value of life is an economic value used to quantify the benefit of avoiding a fatality. It is also referred to as the cost of life, value of preventing a fatality (VPF) and implied cost of averting a fatality (ICAF)"



United States

The following estimates have been applied to the value of life. The estimates are either for one year of additional life or for the statistical value of a single life.


$50,000 per year of quality life (the "dialysis standard",[30] which had been a de facto international standard most private and government-run health insurance plans worldwide use to determine whether to cover a new medical procedure)[31]

$129,000 per year of quality life (an update to the "dialysis standard")[32][31]

$9.1 million (Environmental Protection Agency, 2010)[33]

$7.9 million (Food and Drug Administration, 2010)[33]

$9.2 million (Department of Transportation, 2014)[34]

$9.6 million (Department of Transportation, Aug. 2016)[35]

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 22nd, 2020 at 9:19:09 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

however, unless I missed something, you are going with the assumption that if we had not shut businesses down etc the economy would have grown normally.



That's a good point. I did not factor that in.

To be honest, it makes me think my ratio of lost GDP to lives lost is kind of a useless statistic. The question I'm trying to get at is if we want to save one extra life, how much do we need to slow down the economy? To get at that, we should be looking at how many lives would have been lost if we took no government measure to mitigate the spread.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
darkoz
darkoz
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June 22nd, 2020 at 9:25:20 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

One of your poll statements to vote on is "No expense should be spared to save one life." So that makes me think that you are calculating the cost of efforts to contain the virus, however, unless I missed something, you are going with the assumption that if we had not shut businesses down etc the economy would have grown normally. I think that is an incorrect assumption, it is quite likely we would have had a recession due to people refusing to fly, eat out, go to work, etc. on their own. Therefore in spite of your working so hard on this , the figure is going to remain unknown.

Or I don't understand what you meant to calculate



I admit that poll choice needs some clarification.

On the face of it I think he is saying a life should have no cost put to it. Nine million or ninety million is not enough or more.

Or the poll choice is precisely the opposite in meaning. Not one penny should be spent to save a life (no expense).

I am certain he meant the former as it's more common to say a life is too valuable to place a dollar figure on it.
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SOOPOO
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June 22nd, 2020 at 11:06:59 AM permalink
The very hard part is to answer the question cogently when we have NO IDEA how many lives were saved by the pseudo-shutdowns we tried. As Bob has pointed out, well over 1/2 of all businesses were up and running during the 'shutdowns', as 'essential' was laughable at best. If today the governors all decided to simultaneously open everything up with absolutely no restrictions, who can even guess how much the economy will still be hamstrung? My in laws, the casinos' best friends (two old slot players who get enough comps they must lose high 4 figures if not 5 figures every year), are NOT going back until there is a vaccine, or a truly effective treatment.

The best way to do this might be to look at malpractice cases. If there is a 'clear kill', say a 40 year old healthy guy, I think they end up settling for 3-6 million or so.

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