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RonC
RonC
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July 26th, 2016 at 1:37:26 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: AcesAndEights

The 538 election forecast is pretty interesting. Currently, the "poll-plus" forecast (basically their best prediction) is breaking 60/40 for Clinton. But Trump got a sizable convention bump, so let's check back in after the Dem convention.

Trump is actually winning the "now-cast," what would happen if the election were today.

Trump also getting just under 2/1 on a lot of betting markets...(lost my link here).

Is anyone offering a line on whether some high-profile charges (like fraud or racketeering) will be brought against Trump at an inopportune time, say in mid-October? Or a ruling in a pending case? I wonder how the odds makers are factoring in those issues.



I hope that you are not pulling for something like that to happen--that could be a huge disaster; perhaps one bigger than all of the fears (real and imagined) of a Trump presidency combined. Imagine--charges brought, he's under indictment and loses the election...then, the charges don't stick and everyone knows that they were "Trumped" up and is mad is hell about a "stolen" election. It isn't likely that he would just sit down and shut up.

No, I think the best thing for the country is for the election to end without an "October Surprise" and then move on from there.
MathExtremist
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July 26th, 2016 at 5:13:52 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

I think that the party will necessarily change but I don't think some new party will emerge. Both the Trump and Sanders successes in the campaign underscore a problem the "people" have with politics as usual; the only real reason the Democrats don't have a similar problem right this minute is that Bernie didn't win the nomination. The fact that a huge percentage of votes in the primaries were for outsiders shows dissatisfaction with career politicians and the parties as they are. You can attempt to write off all folks who support Trump as "juvenile fear mongering bullies" but what do you call the Bernie folks? They aren't just going away, either. Both parties have things to work on.

I'm not talking about voters, I'm talking about the actual public servants who run for elected office under the GOP banner. The reason you're not seeing a schism in the Democratic party, and the reason you wouldn't have even if Bernie had come out on top, is because fundamentally all the Democrats agree on the rules of engagement. Political views may differ on various topics, as Bernie pointed out last night, but nobody disagrees on how to act as a public servant. That used to be true in the GOP as well, but now here's Trump who acts in a manner not befitting a politician - he's the juvenile fear mongering bully, not his voters. His voters are just falling for his schtick. Trump doesn't care personally, but he's tarnished the GOP brand and now many of its members are having a crisis of affiliation. Hence the letter of resignation I posted.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
RonC
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July 26th, 2016 at 5:59:10 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

I'm not talking about voters, I'm talking about the actual public servants who run for elected office under the GOP banner. The reason you're not seeing a schism in the Democratic party, and the reason you wouldn't have even if Bernie had come out on top, is because fundamentally all the Democrats agree on the rules of engagement. Political views may differ on various topics, as Bernie pointed out last night, but nobody disagrees on how to act as a public servant. That used to be true in the GOP as well, but now here's Trump who acts in a manner not befitting a politician - he's the juvenile fear mongering bully, not his voters. His voters are just falling for his schtick. Trump doesn't care personally, but he's tarnished the GOP brand and now many of its members are having a crisis of affiliation. Hence the letter of resignation I posted.



This, too, will pass. Sometimes having something bad happen creates a climate where actual change is not only possible, but probable. There are too many entrenched Republicans unwilling to listen to the people who elect them and they got smacked for it. I don't personally like Trump (or Sanders), but I can see why it happens. Either the party truly opens up and listens to the people and actually gets people elected with a "public servant" attitude or bad things will continue to happen. Trump/Sanders represents a populace pissed off with politic as usual.

"Public servant" is the last thing I would call most people in politics right now. They are more "professional office holders" than anything else. People have been running for office for the better part of a half century or more and that have done nothing but run for or hold office. They stop serving "us" almost as soon as they get elected; their only goal is to get reelected. They stack the deck in favor of that. The perks and fame become too much to give up.

There will be people resign. People resign from things all the time.

The party does have things to do in order to move forward but talk of the demise of the party are premature wishful thinking on the part of people who would benefit from that.
ams288
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July 26th, 2016 at 7:16:50 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: AcesAndEights

The 538 election forecast is pretty interesting. Currently, the "poll-plus" forecast (basically their best prediction) is breaking 60/40 for Clinton. But Trump got a sizable convention bump, so let's check back in after the Dem convention.

Trump is actually winning the "now-cast," what would happen if the election were today.

Trump also getting just under 2/1 on a lot of betting markets...(lost my link here).

Is anyone offering a line on whether some high-profile charges (like fraud or racketeering) will be brought against Trump at an inopportune time, say in mid-October? Or a ruling in a pending case? I wonder how the odds makers are factoring in those issues.



There have been whispers for a while that NBC is sitting on footage of Trump making racist comments during his Apprentice days and that they're waiting to create a nice "October surprise" with it.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
SOOPOO
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July 26th, 2016 at 7:48:21 AM permalink
Quote: ams288



There have been whispers for a while that NBC is sitting on footage of Trump making racist comments during his Apprentice days and that they're waiting to create a nice "October surprise" with it.



That would be impossible. A fine upstanding news organization would immediately release 'news', and not save it for the political gain of a Clinton.....
TigerWu
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July 26th, 2016 at 8:21:25 AM permalink
Quote: ams288



There have been whispers for a while that NBC is sitting on footage of Trump making racist comments during his Apprentice days and that they're waiting to create a nice "October surprise" with it.



I can't imagine that anything even remotely like that exists. Trump is hated by people on both sides of the aisle. If there were something that severely incriminating, the GOP wouldn't have been scrambling for months to try and keep Trump from being the nominee, and I'm sure they dug DEEP to try and find some really bad dirt on him.
RonC
RonC
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July 26th, 2016 at 8:28:02 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: AcesAndEights

The 538 election forecast is pretty interesting. Currently, the "poll-plus" forecast (basically their best prediction) is breaking 60/40 for Clinton. But Trump got a sizable convention bump, so let's check back in after the Dem convention.

Trump is actually winning the "now-cast," what would happen if the election were today.

Trump also getting just under 2/1 on a lot of betting markets...(lost my link here).

Is anyone offering a line on whether some high-profile charges (like fraud or racketeering) will be brought against Trump at an inopportune time, say in mid-October? Or a ruling in a pending case? I wonder how the odds makers are factoring in those issues.



There have been whispers for a while that NBC is sitting on footage of Trump making racist comments during his Apprentice days and that they're waiting to create a nice "October surprise" with it.



Shocker that they may be doing that. The media is no longer trying to report the news, they are attempting to create and control the news.

Realistically, they would be doing a huge disservice to the country by releasing this in October. That action MIGHT help Hillary; it also might piss even more people off that think that the system is rigged against the people... If they had that info already, they should have released it earlier as part of reporting on the candidates.

It is one thing for the candidates to try to find the "October Surprise" or for a law enforcement agency to file charges when they actually have enough evidence to do so (as someone mentioned earlier, but not by holding the evidence until a convenient point), but the news media doing it by withholding important information for release to help one candidate over another is not a good thing.
AcesAndEights
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July 26th, 2016 at 9:13:19 AM permalink
It seems like if Trump said racist things on The Apprentice they would have been highly publicized by now, since it was broadcast on network TV.

Even if it does come out I doubt it will impact the election. He's said plenty of dodgy stuff already. Teflon Don!
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
TigerWu
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July 26th, 2016 at 9:18:25 AM permalink
Guys, I wouldn't worry about Trump OR Hillary.... Obama is going to sign an executive order cancelling the elections, declaring himself king, and instituting martial law. Then we're all going to be rounded up and sent to the "re-education" FEMA camps as part of Jade Helm 16.
billryan
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July 26th, 2016 at 9:22:17 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I can't imagine that anything even remotely like that exists. Trump is hated by people on both sides of the aisle. If there were something that severely incriminating, the GOP wouldn't have been scrambling for months to try and keep Trump from being the nominee, and I'm sure they dug DEEP to try and find some really bad dirt on him.




Having attended two events where trump gave keynote speeches, I am 100 percent positive such footage exist.
One event was the Limo convention in AC around 2005. In it he repeatedly called Marla Maples an aunt, only he replaced the a with a c. He went on in very vulgar terms to explain how all women are aunts and all they really want is your money. He went into great detail about how everyone laffs at effeminate gays because they take it up their rears, but what men don't realize is that ultimately, their wife will do just that to them financially. He went on to insult Asians and Jews
It was a shocking diatribe and many people walked out. When one man up front got up, Donald actually called him a pussy.
The other speech was a bit cleaner but still quite vulgar.
I personally can't wait until these are released.
If you recall, Trump flirted with running in 2008, and did a cross country speaking tour that ended after he addressed a woman's group in Vegas.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
JimRockford
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July 26th, 2016 at 10:23:04 AM permalink
Another fact: The U.S. Has the 3rd highest corporate tax rate in the world, outdone only by United Arab Emirates and Chad. When politicians talk about punishing businesses that move jobs out of the country, another approach could be to stop punishing them for keeping them here.
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." -- Isaac Newton
bobbartop
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July 26th, 2016 at 11:17:48 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Guys, I wouldn't worry about Trump OR Hillary.... Obama is going to sign an executive order cancelling the elections, declaring himself king, and instituting martial law. Then we're all going to be rounded up and sent to the "re-education" FEMA camps as part of Jade Helm 16.




I know you're kidding. Well, I think you're kidding. But the powers that be have always preferred gradualism. They're very patient. They use small power grabs a little at a time. Chip away at our freedom bit by bit. If the frog knows the water in the pot is really hot, he'll jump out. If it warms slowly, you can just cook him. That's why they call it "creeping socialism". Do you think an avowed socialist like Bernie Sanders would have gotten anywhere in this country fifty years ago? Of course not. But in 2016 he was a serious candidate. That's creeping socialism. So many people don't even know we're in hot water.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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July 26th, 2016 at 11:29:24 AM permalink
Blah, blah, blah!
We have an election, an election in a country that has evolved into a two party system.
The parties are competing for control, the candidates are pawns in those decisions.
'But that party cheated'!
Of course they did, at least a little.
But so did the other party.....

Back when you had to be a landowner to vote, and women weren't allowed to vote, the voters had a 'physical' stake in the game, something to lose.
Now we pass out voter cards as you enter the country? Did I get that wrong?
We aren't going back to a time where the women can't vote ( I hope ). Much more likely the women will take control and keep us d**k centered men from voting, maybe as it should be ;-)
I don't know where that leaves the various components of the LBGT group, by subdivision ;-)

I read all the posts on this thread. I think about all of them, except the ones that go over my head....

Seems like ME is making AMS look like a centrist ( gasp ).

Seriously, I'm having a hard time breathing now.
Later, the Feathered One
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
bobbartop
bobbartop
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July 26th, 2016 at 12:01:00 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL


Back when you had to be a landowner to vote, and women weren't allowed to vote, the voters had a 'physical' stake in the game, something to lose.
Now we pass out voter cards as you enter the country? Did I get that wrong?
We aren't going back to a time where the women can't vote ( I hope ).



I agree, you've got that right, and we will never go back to such restrictions on voting as there were in the beginning of the republic. That leaves us with only one choice. The electorate, as it stands now, must become more informed. They must somehow learn to identify the tricks the politicians pull on us, from both parties. Without a proper understanding of what the role of government should be, the people will eventually vote themselves into bondage. It's amazing that our republic and our freedom has lasted as long as it has. Credit to the geniuses who wrote the Constitution.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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July 26th, 2016 at 1:06:08 PM permalink
Quote: bobbartop

I agree, you've got that right, and we will never go back to such restrictions on voting as there were in the beginning of the republic. That leaves us with only one choice. The electorate, as it stands now, must become more informed. They must somehow learn to identify the tricks the politicians pull on us, from both parties. Without a proper understanding of what the role of government should be, the people will eventually vote themselves into bondage. It's amazing that our republic and our freedom has lasted as long as it has. Credit to the geniuses who wrote the Constitution.

When you quoted me, you didn't include the entire quote, nor did you show a <snip> to indicate you were using only 'part' of my quote.

People have been nuked from this site for less, I would advise caution to you moving forward. I don't always agree with some or all of the things ( OK, lots of the things) you write, but I find some weird pleasure in reading your postings ;-)

You keep writing, I'll keep reading.
Well, until you step over some imaginary and constantly variable line that 'you should have known not to cross'!

I'm just 2F, the powers at be usually allow me post my silly jhit here.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
ams288
ams288
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July 26th, 2016 at 1:13:32 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

When you quoted me, you didn't include the entire quote, nor did you show a <snip> to indicate you were using only 'part' of my quote.

People have been nuked from this site for less,



No... they haven't.

You're not a moderator. Let them do their jobs.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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July 26th, 2016 at 1:59:49 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

No... they haven't.

You're not a moderator. Let them do their jobs.

And you just did the same AMS, you quoted part of my post, which leaves out other parts. Those other parts, the ones you didn't quote, define the statement. And the post, if quoted in its entirety would lead straight back to me. But your snippet leads straight back to you. I'm OK with that if you are.
Let me get this straight ( did you notice I used the term straight 3 times before this).
My statement stands, people have been nuked for less on this site.
You have not contradictcted that statement, you just said I was wrong.
You got one part correct. I am not a moderator.
You are still allowed to post any nonsense you want to on these forums, right?
Cheers! 2f
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Steverinos
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July 26th, 2016 at 2:02:55 PM permalink
Quote: RonC

Some Republicans need to be taken to task. They agreed to support the ey practically forced Trump to sign on to the deal...and they are refusing to stand by their word. If they felt that way all along, they should have never signed on. If they felt that way part way through the process, they should have stated that as part of their campaign. They gambled that they would win and not Trump; they just were trying to keep him out of the way.

I understand not wanting to support Trump--but why make a pledge that you won't keep? Just don't make the pledge. Why not denounce the pledge if you decide during the campaign if you cannot stand by it?

These are typical politicians in action. This time it was Republicans. I am not afraid, like others here seem to be when it is the party they support, to call them out on it.



That pledge was way before Trump started personally insulting his opponents.
RonC
RonC
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July 26th, 2016 at 2:54:43 PM permalink
Quote: Steverinos

That pledge was way before Trump started personally insulting his opponents.



I agree. They abandoned it in March. The point is that the pushed for a pledge, got him to make the pledge, and then were all to willing to back out of it when it became later in the game and less of an option for him to go third party.

I think he stated insulting people before March, but I am not going to go back and figure that all out...
bobbartop
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July 26th, 2016 at 3:00:24 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

When you quoted me, you didn't include the entire quote, nor did you show a <snip> to indicate you were using only 'part' of my quote.

People have been nuked from this site for less, I would advise caution to you moving forward. I don't always agree with some or all of the things ( OK, lots of the things) you write, but I find some weird pleasure in reading your postings ;-)

You keep writing, I'll keep reading.
Well, until you step over some imaginary and constantly variable line that 'you should have known not to cross'!

I'm just 2F, the powers at be usually allow me post my silly jhit here.




Well don't nuke me. I'm only a n00bie. And I have a mouth to feed. MINE!

I'm sorry, I was just trying to keep the board un-cluttered and didn't think I was compromising your point. I can do <snips> in the future. Look, see? I just did one.

And thanks for reading my posts. I know we won't always agree, even though I'm always right. But I hope we get along. For some reason, many people like to pick on me. They think I'm too opinionated. But that's THEIR opinion!
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
AZDuffman
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July 26th, 2016 at 4:40:21 PM permalink
Quote: ams288


There have been whispers for a while that NBC is sitting on footage of Trump making racist comments during his Apprentice days and that they're waiting to create a nice "October surprise" with it.



Sounds like you have similar sources to Harry Reid.

Only an idiot would believe this. If they had it then the would have released it long, long ago. Assuming that it even existed, it would have been produced way back in the primary, and that is assuming it did not find its way out during the show.

"Racist" to your source probably means he ordered vanilla ice cream instead of chocolate for desert.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
mcallister3200
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July 26th, 2016 at 5:28:45 PM permalink
Everyone knows you order vanilla-chocolate swirl, or rainbow ice cream to be pc. Duh.
billryan
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July 26th, 2016 at 6:19:02 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Sounds like you have similar sources to Harry Reid.

Only an idiot would believe this. If they had it then the would have released it long, long ago. Assuming that it even existed, it would have been produced way back in the primary, and that is assuming it did not find its way out during the show.

"Racist" to your source probably means he ordered vanilla ice cream instead of chocolate for desert.



If NBC had footage showing its star in a less than positive light, why would they release it and hurt their brand.
Now he is not with them,it's different.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
ams288
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July 26th, 2016 at 7:09:07 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Sounds like you have similar sources to Harry Reid.

Only an idiot would believe this. If they had it then the would have released it long, long ago. Assuming that it even existed, it would have been produced way back in the primary, and that is assuming it did not find its way out during the show.

"Racist" to your source probably means he ordered vanilla ice cream instead of chocolate for desert.



TwoFeathers, would you consider the bolded portion to be an insult?

Cause I sure would...
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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July 26th, 2016 at 7:33:03 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

Quote: AZDuffman

Sounds like you have similar sources to Harry Reid.

Only an idiot would believe this. If they had it then the would have released it long, long ago. Assuming that it even existed, it would have been produced way back in the primary, and that is assuming it did not find its way out during the show.

"Racist" to your source probably means he ordered vanilla ice cream instead of chocolate for desert.



TwoFeathers, would you consider the bolded portion to be an insult?

Cause I sure would...

Jhit, someone insulted me again and I missed it, again? Joke.
Before I ran into your question, AMS, I had already read the post by AZD.
I winced when I read it originally.
That is an honest answer.

I should add that I pretty much think all yous guys/gals/its that just continue to bang out this political diatribe all day everyday are pretty much nuts. But hey, I'm the guy running up and down the street wearing nuttin' but a couple feathers ;-)

In my own mind, I am naked and beautiful. The feathers just add a bit of color....
Last edited by: TwoFeathersATL on Jul 26, 2016
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
RonC
RonC
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July 26th, 2016 at 11:25:41 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

There have been whispers for a while that NBC is sitting on footage of Trump making racist comments during his Apprentice days and that they're waiting to create a nice "October surprise" with it.

Quote: AZDuffman

Sounds like you have similar sources to Harry Reid.

Only an idiot would believe this. If they had it then the would have released it long, long ago. Assuming that it even existed, it would have been produced way back in the primary, and that is assuming it did not find its way out during the show.

"Racist" to your source probably means he ordered vanilla ice cream instead of chocolate for desert.



TwoFeathers, would you consider the bolded portion to be an insult?

Cause I sure would...



Nope. You never said that you believed it, so he is not insulting you.

Go on and be offended if you want. Even if there is no reason to be...
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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July 26th, 2016 at 11:41:09 PM permalink
Quote: RonC

Quote: ams288

Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: AcesAndEights

The 538 election forecast is pretty interesting. Currently, the "poll-plus" forecast (basically their best prediction) is breaking 60/40 for Clinton. But Trump got a sizable convention bump, so let's check back in after the Dem convention.

Trump is actually winning the "now-cast," what would happen if the election were today.

Trump also getting just under 2/1 on a lot of betting markets...(lost my link here).

Is anyone offering a line on whether some high-profile charges (like fraud or racketeering) will be brought against Trump at an inopportune time, say in mid-October? Or a ruling in a pending case? I wonder how the odds makers are factoring in those issues.



There have been whispers for a while that NBC is sitting on footage of Trump making racist comments during his Apprentice days and that they're waiting to create a nice "October surprise" with it.



Shocker that they may be doing that. The media is no longer trying to report the news, they are attempting to create and control the news.

Realistically, they would be doing a huge disservice to the country by releasing this in October. That action MIGHT help Hillary; it also might piss even more people off that think that the system is rigged against the people... If they had that info already, they should have released it earlier as part of reporting on the candidates.

It is one thing for the candidates to try to find the "October Surprise" or for a law enforcement agency to file charges when they actually have enough evidence to do so (as someone mentioned earlier, but not by holding the evidence until a convenient point), but the news media doing it by withholding important information for release to help one candidate over another is not a good thing.



Is it news to report that Trump is a racist? Not to anybody who's been listening. There are dozens of clips already in circulation that make that case. There is no magic number of instances that divide the boorish from the careless from the insensitive to the racist. It becomes a matter of individual perception; a decision of the receiver, where any one of those might gel into conventional wisdom. Me, I think he's earned the racist label he now wears. If inconvenient outtakes surface this fall, and cause Trump voters to give pause, that would be a good thjng. If not, there's always the 5th Avenue shooting gallery just down the street for a little more diversionary entertainment.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
RonC
RonC
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July 26th, 2016 at 11:50:07 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Quote: RonC

Quote: ams288

Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: AcesAndEights

The 538 election forecast is pretty interesting. Currently, the "poll-plus" forecast (basically their best prediction) is breaking 60/40 for Clinton. But Trump got a sizable convention bump, so let's check back in after the Dem convention.

Trump is actually winning the "now-cast," what would happen if the election were today.

Trump also getting just under 2/1 on a lot of betting markets...(lost my link here).

Is anyone offering a line on whether some high-profile charges (like fraud or racketeering) will be brought against Trump at an inopportune time, say in mid-October? Or a ruling in a pending case? I wonder how the odds makers are factoring in those issues.



There have been whispers for a while that NBC is sitting on footage of Trump making racist comments during his Apprentice days and that they're waiting to create a nice "October surprise" with it.



Shocker that they may be doing that. The media is no longer trying to report the news, they are attempting to create and control the news.

Realistically, they would be doing a huge disservice to the country by releasing this in October. That action MIGHT help Hillary; it also might piss even more people off that think that the system is rigged against the people... If they had that info already, they should have released it earlier as part of reporting on the candidates.

It is one thing for the candidates to try to find the "October Surprise" or for a law enforcement agency to file charges when they actually have enough evidence to do so (as someone mentioned earlier, but not by holding the evidence until a convenient point), but the news media doing it by withholding important information for release to help one candidate over another is not a good thing.



Is it news to report that Trump is a racist? Not to anybody who's been listening. There are dozens of clips already in circulation that make that case. There is no magic number of instances that divide the boorish from the careless from the insensitive to the racist. It becomes a matter of individual perception; a decision of the receiver, where any one of those might gel into conventional wisdom. Me, I think he's earned the racist label he now wears. If inconvenient outtakes surface this fall, and cause Trump voters to give pause, that would be a good thjng. If not, there's always the 5th Avenue shooting gallery just down the street for a little more diversionary entertainment.



Yes, it is news if they have footage that shows him to making racist statements. Just because you think it would be a "good thing" for their to be some inconvenient footage come out in October doesn't make it any less of a manipulation of the news by the folks who are supposed to report the news, not make it. If you had the footage and gave it to NBC in the fall, that would be one thing. If a news organization has the footage and chooses their timing to impact the election the most, that is a totally different thing.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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July 27th, 2016 at 12:10:49 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

Quote: beachbumbabs

Quote: RonC

Quote: ams288

Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: AcesAndEights

The 538 election forecast is pretty interesting. Currently, the "poll-plus" forecast (basically their best prediction) is breaking 60/40 for Clinton. But Trump got a sizable convention bump, so let's check back in after the Dem convention.

Trump is actually winning the "now-cast," what would happen if the election were today.

Trump also getting just under 2/1 on a lot of betting markets...(lost my link here).

Is anyone offering a line on whether some high-profile charges (like fraud or racketeering) will be brought against Trump at an inopportune time, say in mid-October? Or a ruling in a pending case? I wonder how the odds makers are factoring in those issues.



There have been whispers for a while that NBC is sitting on footage of Trump making racist comments during his Apprentice days and that they're waiting to create a nice "October surprise" with it.



Shocker that they may be doing that. The media is no longer trying to report the news, they are attempting to create and control the news.

Realistically, they would be doing a huge disservice to the country by releasing this in October. That action MIGHT help Hillary; it also might piss even more people off that think that the system is rigged against the people... If they had that info already, they should have released it earlier as part of reporting on the candidates.

It is one thing for the candidates to try to find the "October Surprise" or for a law enforcement agency to file charges when they actually have enough evidence to do so (as someone mentioned earlier, but not by holding the evidence until a convenient point), but the news media doing it by withholding important information for release to help one candidate over another is not a good thing.



Is it news to report that Trump is a racist? Not to anybody who's been listening. There are dozens of clips already in circulation that make that case. There is no magic number of instances that divide the boorish from the careless from the insensitive to the racist. It becomes a matter of individual perception; a decision of the receiver, where any one of those might gel into conventional wisdom. Me, I think he's earned the racist label he now wears. If inconvenient outtakes surface this fall, and cause Trump voters to give pause, that would be a good thjng. If not, there's always the 5th Avenue shooting gallery just down the street for a little more diversionary entertainment.



Yes, it is news if they have footage that shows him to making racist statements. Just because you think it would be a "good thing" for their to be some inconvenient footage come out in October doesn't make it any less of a manipulation of the news by the folks who are supposed to report the news, not make it. If you had the footage and gave it to NBC in the fall, that would be one thing. If a news organization has the footage and chooses their timing to impact the election the most, that is a totally different thing.



I didn't say that. I said, IF such footage were to cause Trump voters to give pause (assuming they value their vote and want it to reflect their values), THAT would be a good thing. It would mean they recognize and value diversity, and that Trump's words and actions are inconsistent with their value structure.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
RonC
RonC
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July 27th, 2016 at 12:52:57 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Is it news to report that Trump is a racist? Not to anybody who's been listening. There are dozens of clips already in circulation that make that case. There is no magic number of instances that divide the boorish from the careless from the insensitive to the racist. It becomes a matter of individual perception; a decision of the receiver, where any one of those might gel into conventional wisdom. Me, I think he's earned the racist label he now wears. If inconvenient outtakes surface this fall, and cause Trump voters to give pause, that would be a good thjng. If not, there's always the 5th Avenue shooting gallery just down the street for a little more diversionary entertainment.



Quote: RonC

Yes, it is news if they have footage that shows him to making racist statements. Just because you think it would be a "good thing" for their to be some inconvenient footage come out in October doesn't make it any less of a manipulation of the news by the folks who are supposed to report the news, not make it. If you had the footage and gave it to NBC in the fall, that would be one thing. If a news organization has the footage and chooses their timing to impact the election the most, that is a totally different thing.



Quote: beachbumbabs

I didn't say that. I said, IF such footage were to cause Trump voters to give pause (assuming they value their vote and want it to reflect their values), THAT would be a good thing. It would mean they recognize and value diversity, and that Trump's words and actions are inconsistent with their value structure.



First you asked if it was news, which it is...why would they report non-news? Then you said that it would be a good thing if it came out in the fall and gave Trump voters pause. My point is that the news media should not manipulate the news to favor one candidate over the other. They should report what they have when they have it...and let the damage be done by reporting the news, not by timing it to influence the outcome of an upcoming event.

I don't think anything about our statements conflict with each other...other than perhaps whether or not it is news....you'd be happy with an "October Surprise" type of thing hurting Trump; I get that. I think news organizations should report stories when they have the information to report them, not at some date that helps manipulate the election.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
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July 27th, 2016 at 2:27:11 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If NBC had footage showing its star in a less than positive light, why would they release it and hurt their brand.
Now he is not with them,it's different.



Because it would have come out by now. All the crew and contestants would have heard it and been talking. And in any case, if they hate Trump so much they would have used it to ruin him during the primary.

Some people just live for the idea that someone said something they can claim was racist and be offended at. TRUMP HAS NOT SAID ANYTHING RACIST at all yet. He has said things his haters call racist because they cannot defend their positions.

Build a wall? They cannot defend that they want open borders so easier to call the guy a racist.
Suspend immigration of muslims? Muslim terror and violence is something they will never admit so just call it racist.

Calling something or someone "racist" in this way is another way of saying you cannot make an intelligent defense of your point so you make a racism charge. The thing is usually the victim defends himself and when he does he looks guilty. Trump just ignores the charge and moves on. This drives the lefties nuts.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ams288
ams288
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July 27th, 2016 at 4:55:09 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

Nope. You never said that you believed it, so he is not insulting you.

Go on and be offended if you want. Even if there is no reason to be...



You are correct that he wasn't insulting me. I don't feel insulted (as I don't even really believe that NBC is sitting on the footage).

However, I do believe he was insulting billryan...


Quote: billryan

Having attended two events where trump gave keynote speeches, I am 100 percent positive such footage exist.



Quote: AZDuffman

Only an idiot would believe this. If they had it then the would have released it long, long ago. Assuming that it even existed, it would have been produced way back in the primary, and that is assuming it did not find its way out during the show.



How could that be construed as anything other than AZ calling billryan an idiot????
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
ams288
ams288
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July 27th, 2016 at 4:57:24 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

TRUMP HAS NOT SAID ANYTHING RACIST at all yet. He has said things his haters call racist because they cannot defend their positions.



The comments about the "Mexican" judge (who was born in Indiana) were absolutely racist.

Just because you don't think so, doesn't mean you're right. Take it up with Paul Ryan if you disagree...
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
terapined
terapined
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July 27th, 2016 at 5:09:08 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

. TRUMP HAS NOT SAID ANYTHING RACIST at all yet. He has said things his haters call racist because they cannot defend their positions.



I wouldn't call Paul Ryan a hater
He's a supporter
“I disavow these comments, Claiming a person can’t do the job because of their race is sort of like the textbook definition of a racist comment. I think that should be absolutely disavowed. It’s absolutely unacceptable.”
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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July 27th, 2016 at 5:34:44 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Suspend immigration of muslims? Muslim terror and violence is something they will never admit so just call it racist.


Also, Islam is a religion open to all races.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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July 27th, 2016 at 5:41:02 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

TRUMP HAS NOT SAID ANYTHING RACIST at all yet.

The funniest thing about this isn't how wrong you are, it's that you qualified your assertion with the word "yet" because you know he's going to say something racist in the future.

"Trump for President: because he hasn't actually used the N-word in a campaign speech yet."
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
RonC
RonC
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July 27th, 2016 at 7:17:22 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

You are correct that he wasn't insulting me. I don't feel insulted (as I don't even really believe that NBC is sitting on the footage).

However, I do believe he was insulting billryan...

How could that be construed as anything other than AZ calling billryan an idiot????



If billyryan thinks that he was attacked, let billtryan take it up with the moderators.

I don't take it as anything more than a strong belief that the footage would already have appeared if it was out there.

Neither you or I are moderators...so what we think doesn't really matter all that much.
ams288
ams288
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July 27th, 2016 at 8:31:05 AM permalink
Trump is doing a press conference right now.

He just asked Russia to find Hillary's emails.

"Russia, if you're listening: I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing. I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press."

Donald Trump is asking Russia to attack the United States and release U.S. government documents.....
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
RonC
RonC
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July 27th, 2016 at 9:15:19 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

Trump is doing a press conference right now.

He just asked Russia to find Hillary's emails.

"Russia, if you're listening: I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing. I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press."

Donald Trump is asking Russia to attack the United States and release U.S. government documents.....



I'm sure he was very serious about that....

Our former SoS is somehow missing 30,000 emails from an illegitimate improperly secured server that contain absolutely no confidential information (because she said so) and the DNC is spinning the whole email thing with them as just a "Russian Attack" in order to diminish the amount of attention paid to the damaging information in the emails...

Yes, of course...Trump is the only clown in this whole process ...

(I am fairly sure that one of the Libs on here will cut just a snippet from this to make it look like I sad that Trump is the only clown in this process. Doing so would be an obvious and intentional misquote...)
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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July 27th, 2016 at 9:32:57 AM permalink
Hey now!

Lay off the clown jokes.

I like clowns.....

They should be a 'protected class'......
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
terapined
terapined
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July 27th, 2016 at 9:39:06 AM permalink
I see the RNC has brought the big guns to Philadelphia respond to Clinton's foreign policy
Omarosa Manigault
WTF
Who?
A woman that came in 8th place on the TV reality show the Apprentice.
lol

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/omarosa-maginault-gop-clinton-foreign-policy

http://www.ifyouonlynews.com/politics/gop-is-being-eviscerated-for-picking-a-reality-tv-show-has-been-to-give-its-official-dnc-response/
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
ams288
ams288
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July 27th, 2016 at 10:02:14 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

I'm sure he was very serious about that....



HE WAS SERIOUS!

This is the guy your side thinks should be President!

Sad!

The Trump/Russia/Putin story is just beginning...
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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July 27th, 2016 at 10:51:52 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

The Trump/Russia/Putin story is just beginning...

Throw in Manafort/Yanukovych and the conspicuous missing tax returns too. You have to wonder how much longer he can keep this up.

I still think this is a bet...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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July 27th, 2016 at 11:08:22 AM permalink
I thought Bill Clinton's speech last night was one of the best I have ever seen. Mostly positive about Hillary with a tad of negative about Trump thrown in. I can easily see it swaying an undecided to go Hillary's way.....
RonC
RonC
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July 27th, 2016 at 11:33:12 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

HE WAS SERIOUS!

This is the guy your side thinks should be President!

Sad!

The Trump/Russia/Putin story is just beginning...



That article does nothing to prove seriousness.

I just watched it. totally tongue-in-cheek.
ams288
ams288
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July 27th, 2016 at 11:45:21 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

Quote: ams288

HE WAS SERIOUS!

This is the guy your side thinks should be President!

Sad!

The Trump/Russia/Putin story is just beginning...



That article does nothing to prove seriousness.

I just watched it. totally tongue-in-cheek.



No, it wasn't.

I feel like the righties are living in a different reality than the rest of the world.

Quote: realDonaldTrump

If Russia or any other country or person has Hillary Clinton's 33,000 illegally deleted emails, perhaps they should share them with the FBI!



We all know Trump is a dumbass (some have issues admitting it to themselves). But this is getting to a whole new level. According to James Comey's press conference, the FBI was able to recover the deleted emails. So for Russia or anyone else to obtain them at this point, they would have to actually hack the FBI to get to them.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
RonC
RonC
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July 27th, 2016 at 12:00:39 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

Quote: RonC

Quote: ams288

HE WAS SERIOUS!

This is the guy your side thinks should be President!

Sad!

The Trump/Russia/Putin story is just beginning...



That article does nothing to prove seriousness.

I just watched it. totally tongue-in-cheek.



No, it wasn't.

I feel like the righties are living in a different reality than the rest of the world.



We all know Trump is a dumbass (some have issues admitting it to themselves). But this is getting to a whole new level. According to James Comey's press conference, the FBI was able to recover the deleted emails. So for Russia or anyone else to obtain them at this point, they would have to actually hack the FBI to get to them.



I'm sorry. I fail to see how anyone could watch what he actually said--not just read a tweet or report on it--and think that he was not saying it tongue-in-cheek.
ams288
ams288
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July 27th, 2016 at 12:05:23 PM permalink
Quote: RonC

I'm sorry. I fail to see how anyone could watch what he actually said--not just read a tweet or report on it--and think that he was not saying it tongue-in-cheek.



It was a tweet from his own account!

What world are you living in?!

lol

Fox News Brett Baier says "Trump appeared to be joking" when making the comments.

Guess that's the track the righties have to take and RonC is falling in line... "Ohhhh just ignore his treasonous comment, he was just kidding!"
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
ams288
ams288
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July 27th, 2016 at 12:09:16 PM permalink
Here is the moment. It was not "tongue-in-cheek." It was a press conference where he was answering questions, not an SNL sketch.

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
billryan
billryan
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July 27th, 2016 at 12:27:35 PM permalink
When considering if someone has insulted me, I first consider if that person is capable of forming a rational thought.
In this particular case, I concluded it wasn't an insult.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
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