Meet Enrique Peña Nieto
June 30th, 2012 at 7:05:50 PM
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Tomorrow Mexico will vote for a new president. According to Intrade, Enrique Peña Nieto has a 93.5% of winning. I hope that Nareed can introduce us to Mexico's presumed next president.
Image source: Wikipedia.
Image source: Wikipedia.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 30th, 2012 at 7:34:38 PM
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Quote: WizardI hope that Nareed can introduce us to Mexico's presumed next president.
I'll quote myself:
There are four reasons not to vote. This is one of them.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
June 30th, 2012 at 7:44:39 PM
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I'm sure Paco will give us more than four words.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 30th, 2012 at 7:51:55 PM
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It doesn't matter who wins. Unless the winner has a legislative majority, and that doesn't seem likely.
The only question I have is what major avenue will El Peje send his zombies to block when he loses the election.
The only question I have is what major avenue will El Peje send his zombies to block when he loses the election.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
June 30th, 2012 at 8:33:26 PM
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I wish the USA would follow Mexico's example and limit presidential terms to one six year term. Maybe knowing they only have one chance to accomplish something and get their legacy set up would motivate the winners more. At least they wouldn't waste 1-1.5 years at the end of their first term trying to get re-elected, like they do here.
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
July 1st, 2012 at 8:00:15 AM
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@Toes14...
Followed by a stiff prison term... I vote for two terms :oP
Followed by a stiff prison term... I vote for two terms :oP
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
July 1st, 2012 at 11:36:01 AM
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In order not to derail the SWD thread (any more):
Paco said
How do you bring anything to a stranglehold?
Anyway, you can count on López Obrador, or, as I call him, El Principito (which is a gross and wholly undeserved insult to one Mr. de Saint Exupery), to throw a tantrum when he loses. For all that he was Mayor of Mexico City for six years and a presidential candidate twice now (only one more to go, hopefully), his signal accomplishment was to single handedly destroy the people's confidence in the electoral system; his second accomplishment was the current electoral law that does away with fripperies like free speech.
So the question isn't whether El Principito will throw a hissy fit, but what he will destroy with it this time.
Had there been the slightest possibility he would win, I'd have voted today. As it is, I thank the Mexican likely voters for letting me stay in on this cold, damp, gray, rainy excuse for a day...
Paco said
Quote:It seems like a certain level of post election protests are inevitable, but I hope it doesn't bring the country to a stranglehold.
How do you bring anything to a stranglehold?
Anyway, you can count on López Obrador, or, as I call him, El Principito (which is a gross and wholly undeserved insult to one Mr. de Saint Exupery), to throw a tantrum when he loses. For all that he was Mayor of Mexico City for six years and a presidential candidate twice now (only one more to go, hopefully), his signal accomplishment was to single handedly destroy the people's confidence in the electoral system; his second accomplishment was the current electoral law that does away with fripperies like free speech.
So the question isn't whether El Principito will throw a hissy fit, but what he will destroy with it this time.
Had there been the slightest possibility he would win, I'd have voted today. As it is, I thank the Mexican likely voters for letting me stay in on this cold, damp, gray, rainy excuse for a day...
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 1st, 2012 at 6:18:43 PM
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With 0.01% of the vote tallied, Peña Nieto is ahead, followed distantly by El Peje and Josefina bringing up the rear (the 4th doesn't really count; he'll be lucky if his votes add up to more than the total of null and invalid votes)
You can follow developments here:
http://gruporeforma.reforma.com/libre/offlines/prep2012/ife/?pxs=1
Hit "refresh" often. It's all in Spanish.
You can follow developments here:
http://gruporeforma.reforma.com/libre/offlines/prep2012/ife/?pxs=1
Hit "refresh" often. It's all in Spanish.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 1st, 2012 at 9:32:44 PM
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With 15.61% of the vote in, Peña is ahead of El Principito by about 4 percentage points. Exit polls predict Peña over El Peje by anywhere from 6 yo 8 points.
On the nail-biter, the 4th Candidate, named Quadri if Memory serves, is ahed of the null and invalid votes by under half a percentage point. If he loses that race by one vote, I will regret my decision not to vote today for, oh, maybe 25 seconds :)
On the nail-biter, the 4th Candidate, named Quadri if Memory serves, is ahed of the null and invalid votes by under half a percentage point. If he loses that race by one vote, I will regret my decision not to vote today for, oh, maybe 25 seconds :)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 1st, 2012 at 10:03:28 PM
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Nareed, is there full confidence in the democratic process down there? I know social standards we take for granted like the police and post office have some issues and the population knows it (my aunt immigrated from Veracruz and she wouldn't send expensive gifts or small amounts of cash), I'm curious if that extends to politics.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
July 2nd, 2012 at 2:28:20 AM
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Quote: ahiromuNareed, is there full confidence in the democratic process down there? I know social standards we take for granted like the police and post office have some issues and the population knows it (my aunt immigrated from Veracruz and she wouldn't send expensive gifts or small amounts of cash), I'm curious if that extends to politics.
I don't know if there is full confidence anywhere in the world. Certainly a lot of people think the 2000 presidential election in the USA was thrown .
But many people in Mexico suspect fraud in elections. Today the highest paid federal officials in Mexico oversee the election board. They are so highly paid so that they will hopefully be above easy inducements.
In general, Transperency International, who attempts to rate countries by a Corruption Perception Index puts Mexico on the lower side of Latin America, but still far from the bottom (Haiti and Venezuela).
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Certainly when Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO for short, sometimes known as El Peje), the former Head of the Federal District lost the presidential election in 2006, he protested that the election was rigged. As he has now lost a second time, there is an assumption that he will not fade quietly.
Quote: NareedThe only question I have is what major avenue will El Peje send his zombies to block when he loses the election.
On February 23, 1993 the Billionaires Banquet where 30 of Mexico's wealthiest men were invited to lunch by the then president, Carlos Salinas, and asked to pledge $25 million apiece to the PRI (the dominant party since 1930) was well documented. It doesn't seem to have violated any laws, but raised serious speculation about what these men expected to get for their $25 million donation.
July 2nd, 2012 at 2:58:17 AM
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Quote: Toes14I wish the USA would follow Mexico's example and limit presidential terms to one six year term. Maybe knowing they only have one chance to accomplish something and get their legacy set up would motivate the winners more. At least they wouldn't waste 1-1.5 years at the end of their first term trying to get re-elected, like they do here.
I doubt that the USA will ever change it's system, but I kind of agree with you. But at the very least there should be a vote of "no confidence" at 2 years. If you get a vote of 70% "no confidence" then you must hold an election in year 4. The 70% would be some kind of a failsafe, because most president's don't go down that low.
There is some evidence to believe that George Washington retired after two terms because of his failing health. However, history and his peers remember him as setting a noble example. Grant toyed with the idea of running for a third term, but decided not to press on. The first really serious challenge was Teddy Roosevelt. He was very young when his second term expired, and he liked being President. In addition, he had actually only been elected VP the first time, even though he served 3 years, 6 months and 3 days of McKinley's second term. He was persuaded not to run, and severely regretted it.
FDR was elected to a 3rd and 4th term. Some people objected, but the demands of wartime suspended most protests. The UK also suspended it's election. After the death of FDR the constitution was amended fairly quickly.
July 2nd, 2012 at 6:49:43 AM
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Quote: pacomartinCertainly a lot of people think the 2000 presidential election in the USA was thrown .
People with severe neural dysfunction.
Quote:Certainly when Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO for short, sometimes known as El Peje), the former Head of the Federal District lost the presidential election in 2006, he protested that the election was rigged.
Some rig, eh? The PAN held the presidency, and the governorships of several states. But with all that all they managed to do was rig a vote diference of under 1%? And they dind't even give their candidate 40% of the vote?
Look, El Peje is a narcissist. The whole PRD is partly narciassistic, too. They cannot conceive that people won't vote for them. In many elections they claim fraud, unfairness, collusion, and everything else they can think of. To hear them talk, they've won every election they were ever in, except the PRI or the PAN or both together stole the elections from them.
Is that a realistic assesment?
I want to hear how they'll spin this cycle, and come up with the PAN rigging an election for another party!
Quote:On February 23, 1993 the Billionaires Banquet where 30 of Mexico's
In 1993, El Peje and many others of his party were PRI militants.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 2nd, 2012 at 7:24:42 AM
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Quote: ahiromuNareed, is there full confidence in the democratic process down there?
I don't know.
Look, elections, by which I mean the actual counting of real votes, are usually clean. Whether the campaigns abide by the law, I've no idea but probably they don't. Vote buying is common, but if people want to sell their vote that's their own affair.
The point is people are not coerced into voting a certain way, the ballot itself is free and secret, votes are counted with reasonable accuracy, and there are no massive frauds like stuffing ballot boxes or making up votes.
There is a lot of chicannery in small towns with majority indigenous populations, as far as local matters go. But that's a different story.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 2nd, 2012 at 7:31:20 AM
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Quote: NareedIn 1993, El Peje and many others of his party were PRI militants.
Many Americans do not realize how profoundly the assassination of Luis Donaldo Colosio in early 1994 affected Mexican politics. The carefully crafted system of appointing a new candidate for the PRI, who would always win the election was put on edge. With the candidate shot dead, only 4 months before the election, the party was required by law to find a new candidate who had not served in a government post in the previous 6 months.The new candidate Ernest Zedillo was a former Education Minister. After his term as President, the PRI lost their first presidential election in 72 years. Zedillo lives in the US now, where he is a professor at Yale.
Incidentally, although it seems like the single 6 year term is the most profound difference between presidential politics in the USA and Mexico, I think the requirement that only people who do not have a current government position is a huge difference. Most of the candidates in the USA already have position. The candidates like Romney, who are not serving elected positions at present, are relatively rare.
July 2nd, 2012 at 8:37:00 AM
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I've no idea what the law requires of a candidate for the presidency. But there are always enough aspirnats, so that doens't seem to eb a problem. I do know anyone in a governmetn position can take a leave of absence at any time for as long as they want.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 3rd, 2012 at 6:57:32 AM
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As I predicted, El Principito is claiming he won. Not outright, but he's got a magical mystery poll that says he had the advantage going into the election, and that the PRI bought a million billion trillion trillion votes, and that no one he knows voted for the PRI anyway.
Hopefully he can learn from experience and will remember how much damage he did to himself six years ago by blocking Reforma Avenue for weeks. But his common sense and $5 will get you a cup of coffe...
Hopefully he can learn from experience and will remember how much damage he did to himself six years ago by blocking Reforma Avenue for weeks. But his common sense and $5 will get you a cup of coffe...
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 3rd, 2012 at 7:37:55 AM
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What is Spanish for "sour grapes"?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 3rd, 2012 at 7:56:46 AM
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Quote: WizardWhat is Spanish for "sour grapes"?
I can't think of anything.
Of course the PRI bought votes. So did the PRD. Very likley the PAN did too. So what? It's highly immoral, to be sure, but it's politics. I just fail to see why it should be illegal. It's no more immoral than other thigns politicians do, and less immoral than most things they do, like contracting unsustainable obligations and making the next generation pay for them.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 3rd, 2012 at 8:17:52 AM
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Today is Martes, which means my housekeeper Lupe is here. I asked her how she liked Nieto. In the three years of seeing her on a weekly basis I have never had such a strong response before. Her immediate response was muy mal (very bad). When I asked why she said that a return to the PRI was a return to the usual corruption that has always kept Mexico down. She said that Obrador was finally a step in the right direction, and he was going many good things for Mexico. However, the PRI stole the election through fraud and the country will return to controlled by the drug cartels.
Of course keep in mind this is not me talking but Lupe.
Of course keep in mind this is not me talking but Lupe.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 3rd, 2012 at 8:33:36 AM
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Quote: WizardToday is Martes, which means my housekeeper Lupe is here. I asked her how she liked Nieto. In the three years of seeing her on a weekly basis I have never had such a strong response before. Her immediate response was muy mal (very bad).
I agree. However, all other options are as bad, if not worse.
Quote:When I asked why she said that a return to the PRI was a return to the usual corruption that has always kept Mexico down.
Very true.
Quote:She said that Obrador was finally a step in the right direction, and he was going many good things for Mexico.
Well, she's entiteld to her opinion. But she's wrong. El Principito ruled over Mexico City for six years, and corruption is as strong as ever. I faced so much red tape obtaining a driver's license, I finally gave up and got it in Mexico State.
On other news, minor candidate Gabriel Quadri obtained 2.30% of the vote. Null and invalid votes, however, beat him at 2.42%.
That's too bad. I'd have voted for Quadri if I'd bothered to cast a ballot. Not that I'd want him for president, or that he could ever win, but he was the most sensible candidate throughout the debates.
The Partido Nueva Alianza is a front for one of the teacher's unions, specifically for said union's leader. They're corrupt and care little for education (which is better than the other teacher's union which cares nothing for education). But when they need to pick candidates to run for something, they pick good ones. All to gain the minimum vote percentage needed to maintiain their status as a publicly supported party, of course. Crafty, that.
In conclussion, I dont' buy the line that the bogeyman (El Coco) will eat us if the PRI wins an election. Proof: the PRI has won the election and we remain uneaten :P
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 3rd, 2012 at 4:58:12 PM
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A Wall Street Journal columnist who was raised in Mexico wrote today about the Mexican Miracle. The miracle, he said, is that the election went off peacefully and credibly.
Generally, things have gone better since then. (NAFTA, GDP increase, etc.). There also was an article about how great Mexico City is now, with less pollution and crime, compared with the rest of Mexico. They actually have time to worry about things like gay rights and public bicycles!
Mexico City's Renaissance
- In 1972 1976, Jose Lopez Portillo was elected president of Mexico. Nobody opposed him, and he took 100% of the vote. The peso promptly plunged 58% against the dollar.
- Six years later, in 1978 1982, the same thing happened, but with $80 billion in external debt.
- The 1988 election was stolen outright from the opposition candidate
- In 1994, presidential candidate Colosio was assassinated for reasons that remain unexplained. Followed was another peso crisis, and the Marxist upraising in the south.
- At the turn of the century, Zedillo and the PRI stepped aside peacefully after 71 years of rule.
Generally, things have gone better since then. (NAFTA, GDP increase, etc.). There also was an article about how great Mexico City is now, with less pollution and crime, compared with the rest of Mexico. They actually have time to worry about things like gay rights and public bicycles!
Mexico City's Renaissance
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
July 3rd, 2012 at 5:19:14 PM
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Quote: teddys
- In 1972, Jose Lopez Portillo was elected president of Mexico. Nobody opposed him, and he took 100% of the vote. The peso promptly plunged 58% against the dollar.
- Six years later, in 1978, the same thing happened, but with $80 billion in external debt.
No one was elected in those years.
Luis Echeverría was "elected" in 1970. José (el perro) López Portillo was "elected" in 1976. Presidents serve a single 6 year term.
In 1976 the peso was devalued. Again in 1982, after el perro expropriated the banks. Both devaluations were a result of massive debt and leftist policies. In 1982, the designated president was Miguel de la Madrid Hurtado. He's notorious as the only former PRI president in recent years to remain in mexico after his term expired, and for not draining the treasury dry, despite his last name.
He was a good man,a nd began to turn away from the left-wing policies of the past. But his term was marked by "mild" hyperinflation (a height of 160%, which is mild compared to what happened in Brazil and Argentina at the time). He was followed by Carlos Salinas in 1988. That election may ahve been stolen, but considering the alternative I've no complaints.
Salinas was, in fact, a good president all things considered. But he was too corrupt and he engaged in crony "capitalism." He did leave the finances in shambles, but he also privatized lots of industries, including the banks, and that was huge. He negotiated NAFTA as well. The big devaluationa dn crisis in 1995 rests partly on him, but also partly on Ernesto Zedillo. it's true the peso had to fall, but it didn't have to be misshandled as badly as Zedillo did.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 6th, 2012 at 8:38:22 AM
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Lopez Obrador is up to his old tricks <sigh>
He plans to try to paralize the city this Weekend. I may have to cancel my elecotrlogist appointment, as I've got to cross Reforma one way or another going back home.
So he'll amke a lot of noise, knwock down the GDP a fraction of a percentage point, and will fume again for another six years.
But he has a campaign slogan figured out for 2018: Vote for me and nobody gets hurt.
He plans to try to paralize the city this Weekend. I may have to cancel my elecotrlogist appointment, as I've got to cross Reforma one way or another going back home.
So he'll amke a lot of noise, knwock down the GDP a fraction of a percentage point, and will fume again for another six years.
But he has a campaign slogan figured out for 2018: Vote for me and nobody gets hurt.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 9th, 2012 at 3:54:30 AM
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Quote: NareedLopez Obrador is up to his old tricks <sigh>
According to the website of the Federal Electoral Institute, with 100% of the totals counted, Peña Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, had 38.21% of vote, while leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador finished with 31.59% and conservative candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota had 25.41%.
The official tally included individual ballot recounts in 54.5% of the country's electoral districts.
Lopez Obrador has vowed to challenge the results, accusing the PRI of vote-buying, and said that he would take his complaints through the legal system. He did not immediately comment following the announcement of the official count.
July 9th, 2012 at 6:43:57 AM
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Quote: pacomartinLopez Obrador has vowed to challenge the results, accusing the PRI of vote-buying, and said that he would take his complaints through the legal system.
That's what he said.
What he didnt say was "The PRI bought more votes than we did." Adn "Once the legal system rules against me, I'll block some major avenue again!"
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 9th, 2012 at 9:32:35 AM
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Out of curiosity, how much does it cost to buy a vote, and how do you know the person selling it will vote for who you tell them to?
I've heard the going price to buy a vote here is a carton of cigarettes, but you can never know what they will do behind the curtain.
I've heard the going price to buy a vote here is a carton of cigarettes, but you can never know what they will do behind the curtain.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 9th, 2012 at 9:59:30 AM
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Quote: WizardOut of curiosity, how much does it cost to buy a vote, and how do you know the person selling it will vote for who you tell them to?
It varies, I guess.
But look at Mexico's debt acquired between 1921 and 200. Some of that it's what it cost the PRI to buy votes in the unions for the years they were in power.
These days it's different. And these days you can't tell how people will vote. Another trick is to identify groups who'd vote for someone else and offer them money in exchange for borrowing their electoral ID cards (you can't vote without it). Then return their cards after the election.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 9th, 2012 at 11:20:00 AM
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BTW for the 2010 congressional elections I thought about selling my vote. As faras I know it's illegal to buy votes, but not to sell them. In the end I dind't. I decided to cast a null ballot with a vulgar form of "A pox on all your houses."
I didn't even do that, as I was assigned a polling place 30 km away. I haven't got that straightened out yet, either... Anyway, it was too far to go for a largely meaningless gesture.
I didn't even do that, as I was assigned a polling place 30 km away. I haven't got that straightened out yet, either... Anyway, it was too far to go for a largely meaningless gesture.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 9th, 2012 at 12:17:09 PM
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I wish None of the above was a valid choice. That way i would not have to listen to some pompous politician saying his plan is a mandate from the people !
July 9th, 2012 at 12:23:18 PM
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Quote: buzzpaffI wish None of the above was a valid choice. That way i would not have to listen to some pompous politician saying his plan is a mandate from the people !
In Mexico you can write-in the name of a person not in the ballot. One way to null your vote is to write names of fictional characters or famous people. A popular choice is still Cantinflas, though he died some years ago. Typically write-ins get 0.05% to 0.10% of the vote.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
