Advice for future advantage play

Recently, I found a video poker game with a surprisingly generous pay table. It's possible I pushed it too hard or others also caught on, but it was fixed sometime this morning.

Old pay table, Joker Poker (Kings or Better):

Hand	Payout
Natural Royal Flush	800
Five of a Kind	200
Wild Royal Flush	125
Straight Flush	40
Four of a Kind	20
Full House	9
Flush	6
Straight	4
Three of a Kind	2
Two Pair	1
Kings or Better	1

Using the Wizard of Odds Video Poker Strategy Calculator and confirmed by my own experience, the return to player with basic strategy was 107.14% which is the the highest I’ve ever seen offered on a video poker title. (I believe their own published number was 95.94%).

It should be noted that when I ran the calculation on the strategy calculator, it was clear that it was the first time it had been run, so it’s possible I was the only one who had knowledge of this (which may change the answers to the following questions).

I’d like to ask a few questions to those more experienced in advantage play:

1. When presented with an opportunity like this, is it better to play slowly to avoid detection?
2. Would a provider likely catch this issue on their own without significant abuse?
3. Given how difficult optimal strategy is for most players, is it possible that recreational players still lost money on average despite the high EV?
4. How should I go about locating specific casino's with these games when I find them, or is this even necessary (assuming I have one)?

Also apologies if I contributed to ruining the method for anyone else, I figured it would be best to hit it quick, hence why I'm curious on what the general consensus is for something like this.

Thank you for any input.

Quote: topdogger

Recently, XXXXX Gaming released a video poker game with a surprisingly generous pay table. It's possible I pushed it too hard or others also caught on, but it was patched sometime this morning.

Old pay table, Joker Poker (Kings or Better):

Hand	Payout
Natural Royal Flush	800
Five of a Kind	200
Wild Royal Flush	125
Straight Flush	40
Four of a Kind	20
Full House	9
Flush	6
Straight	4
Three of a Kind	2
Two Pair	1
Kings or Better	1

Using the Wizard of Odds Video Poker Strategy Calculator and confirmed by my own experience, the return to player with basic strategy was 107.14% which is the the highest I’ve ever seen offered on a video poker title. (I believe their own published number was 95.94%).

It should be noted that when I ran the calculation on the strategy calculator, it was clear that it was the first time it had been run, so it’s possible I was the only one who had knowledge of this (which may change the answers to the following questions).

I’d like to ask a few questions to those more experienced in advantage play:

1. When presented with an opportunity like this, is it better to play slowly to avoid detection?
2. Would a provider likely catch this issue on their own without significant abuse?
3. Given how difficult optimal strategy is for most players, is it possible that recreational players still lost money on average despite the high EV?
4. How should I go about locating specific casino's with these games when I find them, or is this even necessary (assuming I have one)?

Also apologies if I contributed to ruining the method for anyone else, I figured it would be best to hit it quick, hence why I'm curious on what the general consensus is for something like this.

Thank you for any input.
link to original post

I'm going to assume the calculation is correct, as I haven't run it myself, but I can clearly see the Full House, Flush, and Straight are beefed up considerably.


Assuming one actually found a legitimate RNG at a legitimate Casino, there's no one good answer to how one would approach an opportunity like this. There are way too many different scenarios that would affect your decision-making.

If I found this in a legitimate brick-and-mortar Casino, I would play it at the highest denomination possible and put as many hours in as possible, and lock the machine up either with partners or timesharing. One reason for that should answer your third question. At 107% the average video poker player would crush this game even while playing poorly.

Also,

Another Pro might find the machine.
The manufacturer might realize their mistake.
Something else could go wrong so that you wouldn't have a chance to play the machine slowly.

There might be some fairly unique situations where it's unlikely anybody would even be playing the machine, such as a small hole-in-the-wall bar, gas station, supermarket or a Casino hidden in the menu of a multi-game where you could risk just playing it slowly hoping people lose enough on the other games to make up for what you're taking out. The problem is that it might take you a month to make as much as you could make in one day.

I believe all this is a moot point, as I do not believe they are using a regular RNG. FYI, I have played their slots, but I don't believe I've ever played their video poker.

I assume XXXXX is only available at online casinos. That throws another wrench in the works. Let's assume it was truly random. If the online casino realizes its mistake, they might not pay you. The only way to really determine how much you should take out would depend on the size and popularity of the online casino and its reputation. If you found this on a bigger well-known online casino such as Bovada, BetUS, BetOnline you could probably make five figures and get paid without an issue.

Even though I do not believe it's truly random, I wouldn't pass up the opportunity and take a shot. The investment would be small, and it would take very little time to figure out if it was random or not. You could run a few simulations and find out just how quickly your bankroll should grow playing something like this. I wouldn't even bother running a simulation, I would just start playing, and after a few thousand hands, see where I'm at.

I highly suggest you delete the name of the provider from your post or ask a moderator to edit it for you. There just doesn't seem to be any good reason to add that to your post, especially if there is any possibility of it being legitimately random, someone might alert the provider and kill it before you even have a chance to make anything, if it is in fact legit.

Its already been patched out unfortunately but thank you for the insight (it now pays 800-200-100-50-16-6-5-3-2-1-1), I do believe it was truly random while it was temporarily available.

Partners is a very good suggestion that I should have considered while it was still up, without going into too much details, over the four days it was known to me my bankroll increased 3x, could have certainly been more. I probably played 8 hours a day with a somewhat mastered basic strategy (some edge cases likely weren't perfect but the EV difference shouldn't have been too significant).

It was technically hidden in a multi-game, though unfortunately the other games also had some very suspect pay tables (deuces wild was close to 100% RTP, the jacks or better was like 90%) so I'm not sure how good it would do (deuces wild is the "base" game and would still be profitable with reasonable comps).

Though it has been fixed I will remove the provider out of respect to them, no reason to call them out I suppose. Thank you for your response :)

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: topdogger

Recently, XXXXX Gaming released a video poker game with a surprisingly generous pay table. It's possible I pushed it too hard or others also caught on, but it was patched sometime this morning.

Old pay table, Joker Poker (Kings or Better):

Hand	Payout
Natural Royal Flush	800
Five of a Kind	200
Wild Royal Flush	125
Straight Flush	40
Four of a Kind	20
Full House	9
Flush	6
Straight	4
Three of a Kind	2
Two Pair	1
Kings or Better	1

Using the Wizard of Odds Video Poker Strategy Calculator and confirmed by my own experience, the return to player with basic strategy was 107.14% which is the the highest I’ve ever seen offered on a video poker title. (I believe their own published number was 95.94%).

It should be noted that when I ran the calculation on the strategy calculator, it was clear that it was the first time it had been run, so it’s possible I was the only one who had knowledge of this (which may change the answers to the following questions).

I’d like to ask a few questions to those more experienced in advantage play:

1. When presented with an opportunity like this, is it better to play slowly to avoid detection?
2. Would a provider likely catch this issue on their own without significant abuse?
3. Given how difficult optimal strategy is for most players, is it possible that recreational players still lost money on average despite the high EV?
4. How should I go about locating specific casino's with these games when I find them, or is this even necessary (assuming I have one)?

Also apologies if I contributed to ruining the method for anyone else, I figured it would be best to hit it quick, hence why I'm curious on what the general consensus is for something like this.

Thank you for any input.
link to original post

I'm going to assume the calculation is correct, as I haven't run it myself, but I can clearly see the Full House, Flush, and Straight are beefed up considerably.


Assuming one actually found a legitimate RNG at a legitimate Casino, there's no one good answer to how one would approach an opportunity like this. There are way too many different scenarios that would affect your decision-making.

If I found this in a legitimate brick-and-mortar Casino, I would play it at the highest denomination possible and put as many hours in as possible, and lock the machine up either with partners or timesharing. One reason for that should answer your third question. At 107% the average video poker player would crush this game even while playing poorly.

Also,

Another Pro might find the machine.
The manufacturer might realize their mistake.
Something else could go wrong so that you wouldn't have a chance to play the machine slowly.

There might be some fairly unique situations where it's unlikely anybody would even be playing the machine, such as a small hole-in-the-wall bar, gas station, supermarket or a Casino hidden in the menu of a multi-game where you could risk just playing it slowly hoping people lose enough on the other games to make up for what you're taking out. The problem is that it might take you a month to make as much as you could make in one day.

I believe all this is a moot point, as I do not believe they are using a regular RNG. FYI, I have played their slots, but I don't believe I've ever played their video poker.

I assume XXXXX is only available at online casinos. That throws another wrench in the works. Let's assume it was truly random. If the online casino realizes its mistake, they might not pay you. The only way to really determine how much you should take out would depend on the size and popularity of the online casino and its reputation. If you found this on a bigger well-known online casino such as Bovada, BetUS, BetOnline you could probably make five figures and get paid without an issue.

Even though I do not believe it's truly random, I wouldn't pass up the opportunity and take a shot. The investment would be small, and it would take very little time to figure out if it was random or not. You could run a few simulations and find out just how quickly your bankroll should grow playing something like this. I wouldn't even bother running a simulation, I would just start playing, and after a few thousand hands, see where I'm at.

I highly suggest you delete the name of the provider from your post or ask a moderator to edit it for you. There just doesn't seem to be any good reason to add that to your post, especially if there is any possibility of it being legitimately random, someone might alert the provider and kill it before you even have a chance to make anything, if it is in fact legit.
link to original post

Take a look at the laws for PA when it comes to our “skill games” … the definition of random is basically “numbers chosen with a probability” … none of it says you need to generate them with the probability that they are supposed to be generated at … meaning I believe I can just alter the probability of something happening before it happens … I can set a probability and then generate a number at that probability… imo

Quote: heatmap

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: topdogger

Recently, XXXXX Gaming released a video poker game with a surprisingly generous pay table. It's possible I pushed it too hard or others also caught on, but it was patched sometime this morning.

Old pay table, Joker Poker (Kings or Better):

Hand	Payout
Natural Royal Flush	800
Five of a Kind	200
Wild Royal Flush	125
Straight Flush	40
Four of a Kind	20
Full House	9
Flush	6
Straight	4
Three of a Kind	2
Two Pair	1
Kings or Better	1

Using the Wizard of Odds Video Poker Strategy Calculator and confirmed by my own experience, the return to player with basic strategy was 107.14% which is the the highest I’ve ever seen offered on a video poker title. (I believe their own published number was 95.94%).

It should be noted that when I ran the calculation on the strategy calculator, it was clear that it was the first time it had been run, so it’s possible I was the only one who had knowledge of this (which may change the answers to the following questions).

I’d like to ask a few questions to those more experienced in advantage play:

1. When presented with an opportunity like this, is it better to play slowly to avoid detection?
2. Would a provider likely catch this issue on their own without significant abuse?
3. Given how difficult optimal strategy is for most players, is it possible that recreational players still lost money on average despite the high EV?
4. How should I go about locating specific casino's with these games when I find them, or is this even necessary (assuming I have one)?

Also apologies if I contributed to ruining the method for anyone else, I figured it would be best to hit it quick, hence why I'm curious on what the general consensus is for something like this.

Thank you for any input.
link to original post

I'm going to assume the calculation is correct, as I haven't run it myself, but I can clearly see the Full House, Flush, and Straight are beefed up considerably.


Assuming one actually found a legitimate RNG at a legitimate Casino, there's no one good answer to how one would approach an opportunity like this. There are way too many different scenarios that would affect your decision-making.

If I found this in a legitimate brick-and-mortar Casino, I would play it at the highest denomination possible and put as many hours in as possible, and lock the machine up either with partners or timesharing. One reason for that should answer your third question. At 107% the average video poker player would crush this game even while playing poorly.

Also,

Another Pro might find the machine.
The manufacturer might realize their mistake.
Something else could go wrong so that you wouldn't have a chance to play the machine slowly.

There might be some fairly unique situations where it's unlikely anybody would even be playing the machine, such as a small hole-in-the-wall bar, gas station, supermarket or a Casino hidden in the menu of a multi-game where you could risk just playing it slowly hoping people lose enough on the other games to make up for what you're taking out. The problem is that it might take you a month to make as much as you could make in one day.

I believe all this is a moot point, as I do not believe they are using a regular RNG. FYI, I have played their slots, but I don't believe I've ever played their video poker.

I assume XXXXX is only available at online casinos. That throws another wrench in the works. Let's assume it was truly random. If the online casino realizes its mistake, they might not pay you. The only way to really determine how much you should take out would depend on the size and popularity of the online casino and its reputation. If you found this on a bigger well-known online casino such as Bovada, BetUS, BetOnline you could probably make five figures and get paid without an issue.

Even though I do not believe it's truly random, I wouldn't pass up the opportunity and take a shot. The investment would be small, and it would take very little time to figure out if it was random or not. You could run a few simulations and find out just how quickly your bankroll should grow playing something like this. I wouldn't even bother running a simulation, I would just start playing, and after a few thousand hands, see where I'm at.

I highly suggest you delete the name of the provider from your post or ask a moderator to edit it for you. There just doesn't seem to be any good reason to add that to your post, especially if there is any possibility of it being legitimately random, someone might alert the provider and kill it before you even have a chance to make anything, if it is in fact legit.
link to original post

Take a look at the laws for PA when it comes to our “skill games” … the definition of random is basically “numbers chosen with a probability” … none of it says you need to generate them with the probability that they are supposed to be generated at … meaning I believe I can just alter the probability of something happening before it happens … I can set a probability and then generate a number at that probability… imo
link to original post

Depending on the situation, I might not care if something is actually random or not, as long as it pays back the percentage that the pay table is suggesting.

Quote: topdogger

Its already been patched out unfortunately but thank you for the insight (it now pays 800-200-100-50-16-6-5-3-2-1-1), I do believe it was truly random while it was temporarily available.

Partners is a very good suggestion that I should have considered while it was still up, without going into too much details, over the four days it was known to me my bankroll increased 3x, could have certainly been more. I probably played 8 hours a day with a somewhat mastered basic strategy (some edge cases likely weren't perfect but the EV difference shouldn't have been too significant).

It was technically hidden in a multi-game, though unfortunately the other games also had some very suspect pay tables (deuces wild was close to 100% RTP, the jacks or better was like 90%) so I'm not sure how good it would do (deuces wild is the "base" game and would still be profitable with reasonable comps).

Though it has been fixed I will remove the provider out of respect to them, no reason to call them out I suppose. Thank you for your response :)
link to original post

May I ask what denomination you played and why you chose that particular denomination? Also, how certain were you that the online casino you were playing was/is reputable? What about bonuses did they have any particular bonuses or anything?

At a five-coin dollar denomination in 8-hours one should be making around $2,000.

I was max betting, 3$ per hand, 15 hands per round, and without saying much more as for exact numbers I was making less then 1/2 of your estimates (I suppose the first day I would check the strategy rather often, further days I would check it infrequently and there were some inefficiencies), I choose max betting to maximize EV of course, though I tested with smaller denominations first to make sure it was viable. The casino I was playing on is incredibly soft so I cant really explain the details, but I felt comfortable depositing enough to overcome variance anytime it was necessary. I think its important to note aswell that I never had a losing session, nor did I seem to have much trouble with swings at all.

I worry about using bonuses as I feels this puts a spotlight on me, though im curious what your thoughts are on for that? In the past "bonus hunting" advantage play has seemed to give me alot of heat (I guess online you could say that's KYC checks or stone walling).

Quote: topdogger

It was technically hidden in a multi-game, though unfortunately the other games also had some very suspect pay tables (deuces wild was close to 100% RTP, the jacks or better was like 90%) so I'm not sure how good it would do (deuces wild is the "base" game and would still be profitable with reasonable comps).

link to original post

(truncated)

My immediate instinct on a too-good paytable is to check for other gaffs, like discards being reshuffled with the stub before the draw.

With the 40x straight flush, I would want to play below $30/deal, to minimize handpay lockups and the attention they can garner. $25/deal should be fine, so 5 lines of 5x$1 should work. With the 1x-1x at the bottom, it can be a rough day if the fancy hands never seem to arrive.

Quote: topdogger

I was max betting, 3$ per hand, 15 hands per round, and without saying much more as for exact numbers I was making less then 1/2 of your estimates (I suppose the first day I would check the strategy rather often, further days I would check it infrequently and there were some inefficiencies), I choose max betting to maximize EV of course, though I tested with smaller denominations first to make sure it was viable. The casino I was playing on is incredibly soft so I cant really explain the details, but I felt comfortable depositing enough to overcome variance anytime it was necessary. I think its important to note aswell that I never had a losing session, nor did I seem to have much trouble with swings at all.

I worry about using bonuses as I feels this puts a spotlight on me, though im curious what your thoughts are on for that? In the past "bonus hunting" advantage play has seemed to give me alot of heat (I guess online you could say that's KYC checks or stone walling).
link to original post

You'll have to explain what you mean by soft as I can only guess what that means.

When you say betting three dollars at 15 hands per round, you're talking about multiplay, correct? Does that mean you were betting 20 cents per hand for a total of $3 per round?

I certainly wouldn't have used any bonuses at this casino while this game was available. I'm not sure how much non-bonus hunting advantages you're finding online. If you're finding enough good +EV opportunities without bonuses then you should obviously play those particular casinos or places they are associated with, without using bonuses.

If you're confident that the provider's video poker is using an RNG and if video poker counts towards the rollover of bonuses, it might be worth looking into. Without knowing the bonus details, it's hard to say.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: topdogger

It was technically hidden in a multi-game, though unfortunately the other games also had some very suspect pay tables (deuces wild was close to 100% RTP, the jacks or better was like 90%) so I'm not sure how good it would do (deuces wild is the "base" game and would still be profitable with reasonable comps).

link to original post

(truncated)

My immediate instinct on a too-good paytable is to check for other gaffs, like discards being reshuffled with the stub before the draw.

With the 40x straight flush, I would want to play below $30/deal, to minimize handpay lockups and the attention they can garner. $25/deal should be fine, so 5 lines of 5x$1 should work. With the 1x-1x at the bottom, it can be a rough day if the fancy hands never seem to arrive.
link to original post

Generally online play doesn't include any jackpot lockups.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Dieter

Quote: topdogger

It was technically hidden in a multi-game, though unfortunately the other games also had some very suspect pay tables (deuces wild was close to 100% RTP, the jacks or better was like 90%) so I'm not sure how good it would do (deuces wild is the "base" game and would still be profitable with reasonable comps).

link to original post

(truncated)

My immediate instinct on a too-good paytable is to check for other gaffs, like discards being reshuffled with the stub before the draw.

With the 40x straight flush, I would want to play below $30/deal, to minimize handpay lockups and the attention they can garner. $25/deal should be fine, so 5 lines of 5x$1 should work. With the 1x-1x at the bottom, it can be a rough day if the fancy hands never seem to arrive.
link to original post

Generally online play doesn't include any jackpot lockups.
link to original post

Fair enough. I don't play online.

When I say soft casino I mean they don't tend to give me much trouble, fast withdraws (within seconds) at large amounts, little human oversight.

3$ per hand, 15 hands, so 45$ total per round

Unfortunately they patched all the pay tables to being roughly the published RTP so I cant do anything with this game anymore, my original intention with the game was to use that deuces wild game to farm bonuses while appearing to be a normal player (the operator was told the RTP was 96% or so), until I discovered the other modes available.

Quote: topdogger

When I say soft casino I mean they don't tend to give me much trouble, fast withdraws (within seconds) at large amounts, little human oversight.

3$ per hand, 15 hands, so 45$ total per round

Unfortunately they patched all the pay tables to being roughly the published RTP so I cant do anything with this game anymore, my original intention with the game was to use that deuces wild game to farm bonuses while appearing to be a normal player (the operator was told the RTP was 96% or so), until I discovered the other modes available.
link to original post

Quote: topdogger

I was max betting, 3$ per hand, 15 hands per round, and without saying much more as for exact numbers I was making less then 1/2 of your estimates

I was wondering if you were wagering $45 a hand but I didn't think that could be possible given the conversation and what you said above. What made sense was something that added up to a total of $5 per hand.

In that case, assuming a slow 400 rounds per hour, you made way way less than the EV, as my estimates were based on betting $5 per round, not $45. You should have been making around $1250 per hour. Even if you ran badly and didn't hit any of the top three hands, you should have been easily making between 2% and 3%.


This would make me feel way less confident in believing that's a legitimate RNG, and you were well within a gaffed RNG variance. I would fear that the patch they made was solely done to match their written RTP estimates.

Perhaps there's some miscommunication.


If it were me, and I had the time, assuming video poker adds some type of contribution to the rollover, and they have bonuses, I'd play a lower denomination and churn a few bonuses over and see how close you get to what the RTP should be if it were random.

Quote: AxelWolf

In that case, assuming a slow 400 rounds per hour, you made way way less than the EV, as my estimates were based on betting $5 per round, not $45. You should have been making around $1250 per hour. Even if you ran badly and didn't hit any of the top three hands, you should have been easily making between 2% and 3%.


This would make me feel way less confident in believing that's a legitimate RNG, and you were well within a gaffed RNG variance. I would fear that the patch they made was solely done to match their written RTP estimates.

Perhaps there's some miscommunication.


If it were me, and I had the time, assuming video poker adds some type of contribution to the rollover, and they have bonuses, I'd play a lower denomination and churn a few bonuses over and see how close you get to what the RTP should be if it were random.
link to original post

Apologies for the confusion, I was scaling your numbers up by nine, we weren't too far off (though there's bound to be some errors in my play and variance could be an issue.) 1250 is still a little high though, I never really timed myself, which I probably should for informational purposes, but I'd assume 400 rounds per hour would be relatively high due to my inexperience (checking strategy often, especially on the first day) and some game animations that were not skippable. Maybe too much of the time was spent daydreaming about the home I'd buy if they took several months to patch it, alot of factors I suppose, never had a strategy nearly as effective as this one.

I should note that my ev after some long strings of wagering didnt seem to add up (the site shows total wager during a session versus profit), so its possible that I was over confident in my strategy or made alot of mistakes, but kept up with the 400 hands per hour. It seemed closer to 4% on my longer sessions but I just chalked it to variance and unfortunately cleared it (other players could view it and big hits (1000+) are shared in chat along with links to my profile and the game).

I wouldnt put being gaffed out of the question entirely by something subtle that a unknowing player might not notice though (discards being reshuffled into the deck, etc) like was brought up by Dieter a little earlier. Though anything like that would have to not be significant enough to completely destroy my edge I suppose (unless im the king of variance and a rec).

Is this machine in Germany? Is the game by Novomatic? Not all machines play fairly. I encountered a similar game to this at a casino in Berlin, made by Novomatic. I think they called it "American Poker."

I guess its a slot machine with Poker layout and not real Video Poker.

Quote: Wizard

Is this machine in Germany? Is the game by Novomatic? Not all machines play fairly. I encountered a similar game to this at a casino in Berlin, made by Novomatic. I think they called it "American Poker."
link to original post

This was a video poker machine released online for about a month

The old unpatched pay table appears to still be present in its promotional materials for the moment.

I cannot link the game myself at the moment but the title was "Videopoker 3 in 1" and the providers site should be the first available link when you search it (at least it was for me, as a person who clicked it several times).

I should add that after further review this game does not remove the discards from the available drawing pool (past and present, old footage shows redraws). This could be the reason for the discrepancy between expected value based on the original calculation and what I earned. I don't believe that this is significant enough to have removed my advantage, though I would be disappointed to hear it was (but it would be good to know for further review, give it to me straight). Could be why I was expecting 107% RTP, and averaged at around 104%.