Video Poker with Loss Rebate

Hi All,

I'm looking for some advice on how to maximise profit from some European casinos that offer 20% loss rebates on video poker. Is there an optimal point to claim the rebate, or on the other hand, an optimal point to stop playing if I am winning?

One caveat is that sessions must be a minimum of 2 hours. However, there are multiple casinos in the area that offer the rebate, so I can easily travel between casinos to get multiple 2 hour sessions in per day.

I have read through an article of wizardofodds regarding loss rebates, but I found it to be a bit over my head, and also the article doesn't take into account a minimum session length.

I'm very new to video poker, and also loss rebates, but I'm guessing there should be an optimal stop loss point which is related to how much I am betting per round, for example after winning or losing 100x my bet, it's optimal to stop playing, at which point I can slow down my bets to drag out the remaining time until I can claim the rebate.

Another assumption I have is that higher volatile games would be preferred for this, as we realise the full upside while claiming rebates for the losses. (This isn't really based on anything, just a hunch I have).

I would be really keen to hear people's advice on this, as like I say it's an area I have very little experience in.

Thanks

Quote: Thoich

Hi All,

I'm looking for some advice on how to maximise profit from some European casinos that offer 20% loss rebates on video poker. Is there an optimal point to claim the rebate, or on the other hand, an optimal point to stop playing if I am winning?

One caveat is that sessions must be a minimum of 2 hours. However, there are multiple casinos in the area that offer the rebate, so I can easily travel between casinos to get multiple 2 hour sessions in per day.

I have read through an article of wizardofodds regarding loss rebates, but I found it to be a bit over my head, and also the article doesn't take into account a minimum session length.

I'm very new to video poker, and also loss rebates, but I'm guessing there should be an optimal stop loss point which is related to how much I am betting per round, for example after winning or losing 100x my bet, it's optimal to stop playing, at which point I can slow down my bets to drag out the remaining time until I can claim the rebate.

Another assumption I have is that higher volatile games would be preferred for this, as we realise the full upside while claiming rebates for the losses. (This isn't really based on anything, just a hunch I have).

I would be really keen to hear people's advice on this, as like I say it's an area I have very little experience in.

Thanks
link to original post

You have the concepts spot on. Given the bet sizes required or available and variance of the games, there will be specific win stop and loss stops that someone with better math skills than I have can figure out. Of course also depends on loss rebate % and slightly on the EV of the game you are playing.

The monkey wrench you throw in is the ‘minimum time’. Can you play one hand every three minutes? Can you bet quarters on one line when you have been playing dollars on 5 lines?

With a little more info hopefully someone here can help you.

Yes, minimum time is a new one. I have seen minimum amount of coin-in (usually expressed in number of points earned or something similar) to qualify for loss rebate to avoid hit and runs, but if it was minimum time, I would just play high volatility games at high denomination slowly enough so that the machine doesn't time out on you. You can grab a stopwatch and see how long the time out is (when you have to remove and reinsert your card).

Quote: Thoich

Hi All,

I'm looking for some advice on how to maximise profit from some European casinos that offer 20% loss rebates on video poker. Is there an optimal point to claim the rebate, or on the other hand, an optimal point to stop playing if I am winning?

One caveat is that sessions must be a minimum of 2 hours. However, there are multiple casinos in the area that offer the rebate, so I can easily travel between casinos to get multiple 2 hour sessions in per day.

I have read through an article of wizardofodds regarding loss rebates, but I found it to be a bit over my head, and also the article doesn't take into account a minimum session length.

I'm very new to video poker, and also loss rebates, but I'm guessing there should be an optimal stop loss point which is related to how much I am betting per round, for example after winning or losing 100x my bet, it's optimal to stop playing, at which point I can slow down my bets to drag out the remaining time until I can claim the rebate.

Another assumption I have is that higher volatile games would be preferred for this, as we realise the full upside while claiming rebates for the losses. (This isn't really based on anything, just a hunch I have).

I would be really keen to hear people's advice on this, as like I say it's an area I have very little experience in.

Thanks
link to original post

The Wizard's and others' standard ABC math approach may not be the correct way to approach this situation. I'm in no way saying to disregard the math, I am saying that this situation may be different, therefore you need to use a different approach/math formula.

The questions I would be seeking are...

Important>>> *What are the highest denominations they have? Less important...What are the payables?

Is it only on Video Poker? What about Video Black Jack or various other E-able games like craps?

2 hours min, how does that work? Do you just have to have your card in for 2 hours, or is there a minimum amount of coin-in they require? Perhaps you just need to keep your card active for 2 hours(how long does your card stay active for when idle)? I don't know how they would even really track that accurately, what if someome was playing for 2 hours but they moved machines or took a quick bathroom break? Also, Some people play super fast and some people play super slow.

If they have high denominations and really low denominations the 2-hour aspect won't really affect you all that much, other than time management. You could start on higher denominations and then move to lower denominations after you have established losses.

Do they send other incentives like free play, comps, tournaments, cashback for points, etc?

Is there a limit to the amount they will rebate you?

This is super important >>> When does the clock/accounting reset on your wins and losses?* When and how do you get the rebate? Does the rebate get credited daily or is it a running count forever?
For example, what happens if you win really big on one particular day?

Is the rebate money given in free play? Do the proceeds from the rebate money/free-play count against you?


There are unconnected multiple casinos, if so, how many?

I don't know how this is all set up, but there's potential for it to be an absolute gold mine given the right situation. You could quit your day job.

Thanks everyone for the responses.

Honestly I don't know about their pay tables and denominations, I'm not currently in the city this is offered and it's hard to find the info online.

The offer is only for video poker, no other games. The 2 hour limit is a loose guideline rather than a strict limit. The casinos know that the offer can be taken advantage of, so they back people off from the offer if they do short sessions. Apparently 2 hours is a good amount of time to stay to not draw suspicion. It's definitely possible to work around it by playing lower denom's and playing slower once the stop loss is reached.

They offer comps as well, I believe you earn points which can be redeemed for hotel rooms and food. I'm not sure if they offer free play or cash for points but it would be a nice bonus if they did.

There's no limit to the amount they will rebate. Rebate is paid in cash, and resets every 24 hours. So after a big win, I can just return the next day and start back at 0. I do think they a casino would stop offering the rebates if they realise I am winning a decent amount over the period of a month or so.

There are 5 casino's in the city with this offer. They are unconnected so I could play 2 hours at each one every day without problems.

Hello, Thoich, and welcome to the forum! I agree with the advice already given, especially regarding betting big until you hit either target (win or lose) and then bet small to run out the clock. However, as others have pointed out, you will need to know more about the rules to get more accurate advice. Are you allowed to change bet amounts, machines, or game types during the 2 hour period? This may affect betting big and then betting small. Do you have to opt in or sign up for the promotion? If so, is the time constraint in effect whether you win or lose. This could affect leaving early if you hit your win target if they won’t let you play again next time. You also want to find out if certain bet sizes, certain game types, or certain machines are excluded from this promotion. This may change over time, so you’ll want to be sure to ask before playing each time. You mentioned multiple casinos… If they have different rules, let us know. This is an interesting situation, and I’m sure someone will help you figure it out. Try to avoid giving too much detail about where this is or which casinos offer this. Best of luck!

[Edit to add: You posted while I was writing above, so you may have addressed some of my questions…]

Quote: Thoich

Thanks everyone for the responses.

Honestly I don't know about their pay tables and denominations, I'm not currently in the city this is offered and it's hard to find the info online.

The offer is only for video poker, no other games. The 2 hour limit is a loose guideline rather than a strict limit. The casinos know that the offer can be taken advantage of, so they back people off from the offer if they do short sessions. Apparently 2 hours is a good amount of time to stay to not draw suspicion. It's definitely possible to work around it by playing lower denom's and playing slower once the stop loss is reached.

They offer comps as well, I believe you earn points which can be redeemed for hotel rooms and food. I'm not sure if they offer free play or cash for points but it would be a nice bonus if they did.

There's no limit to the amount they will rebate. Rebate is paid in cash, and resets every 24 hours. So after a big win, I can just return the next day and start back at 0. I do think they a casino would stop offering the rebates if they realise I am winning a decent amount over the period of a month or so.

There are 5 casino's in the city with this offer. They are unconnected so I could play 2 hours at each one every day without problems.
link to original post

The 2-hour thing now makes total sense to me. I would mix up the amount of time you spend playing perhaps play 2.5 to 3 hours sometimes.

Do they have standard IGT Video Poker machines? Do they use RNG's? Class 3 type machines?

The fact that the clock resets every 24 hours is great for you. Now it's all about how high the denominations are and checking the paytables. FYI Look for a double-up feature on the machines (check all of them) that would be really good if you can find one. Don't just look at standard VP, other variants could be really good.

Assuming they have enough higher denomination machines...don't feel the need to always play the absolute best EV machines, that may be what they look at when they clear people out. You can give up a little EV for longevity.
Add a little slot/ E-Table, etc play in occasionally, just make sure it's not more than your EV.
Avoid playing next to other Advantage Players.
Don't keep hitting the same place every day.
Play on different shifts if possible.
Don't be robotic.
Do look and act like a ploppy without actually being one.

I have never seen or heard of an unlimited loss rebate. The casinos would be very vulnerable if they did this. Are you sure there is not a cap on the amount of money they will rebate?

Even if it is unlimited, there is probably a limit to how much you can afford to lose. When I did simulations to optimize VP loss rebates with caps in the past, I usually needed to play in such a way that I would lose at least 80% of the time and make a huge win the other times. If you do this promo aggressively ten times, you could easily lose every time. You would be unusual if you really willing to do they play this aggressively. Also, you would need to commit at least two hours to each play. You will also be cashing in a rebate almost every time you play. The casino might like this or they might be concerned that you are an AP playing the rebate very aggressively.

If you play less aggressively, you might only lose 50% of the time. Half the sessions, you would win early and quit. I presume you don't have to stick around for two hours if you quit ahead.

If you have very modest stop win point, you can get your loss percentage down to maybe 30% of the sessions. If you are playing VP at 125 euros per hand, you might stop is you were ahead just 2 to 4 units. This might mean catching a few trips or one full house early on. Sometimes, you will catch quads or better and have a big score.

If you do simulations, you will find that the EV per session is at a maximum for very high win-stop points. However, if you cut the win-stop point in half, you will typically capture 70% of the EV and be taking on much less risk. In other words, there are always diminishing returns for a loss rebate. If you choose your stop points such that the sessions are very short, you increase your overall EV per unit of coin in.

Quote: Mental

I have never seen or heard of an unlimited loss rebate. The casinos would be very vulnerable if they did this. Are you sure there is not a cap on the amount of money they will rebate?

Even if it is unlimited, there is probably a limit to how much you can afford to lose. When I did simulations to optimize VP loss rebates with caps in the past, I usually needed to play in such a way that I would lose at least 80% of the time and make a huge win the other times. If you do this promo aggressively ten times, you could easily lose every time. You would be unusual if you really willing to do they play this aggressively. Also, you would need to commit at least two hours to each play. You will also be cashing in a rebate almost every time you play. The casino might like this or they might be concerned that you are an AP playing the rebate very aggressively.

If you play less aggressively, you might only lose 50% of the time. Half the sessions, you would win early and quit. I presume you don't have to stick around for two hours if you quit ahead.

If you have very modest stop win point, you can get your loss percentage down to maybe 30% of the sessions. If you are playing VP at 125 euros per hand, you might stop is you were ahead just 2 to 4 units. This might mean catching a few trips or one full house early on. Sometimes, you will catch quads or better and have a big score.

If you do simulations, you will find that the EV per session is at a maximum for very high win-stop points. However, if you cut the win-stop point in half, you will typically capture 70% of the EV and be taking on much less risk. In other words, there are always diminishing returns for a loss rebate. If you choose your stop points such that the sessions are very short, you increase your overall EV per unit of coin in.
link to original post

This is very interesting, especially what you are saying about the optimal way to play is to lose 80% of the time.

The way I had been approaching it was assuming a close to 50% winrate. Say for example I aim to win or lose $3,000 half the time. Half the time I get a $600 rebate (I don't think I mentioned yet but the rebate is 20%). This way the promo would be worth $150 an hour. Am I being too naive with thinking of being able to win close to 50% of the time? Even if it's something like 45% it still works out quite well in my favour.

I would have to stick around even if I'm winning, but I can work my way around that. I am allowed to swap machines, play other games and smaller stakes etc.

When you say to aim for a stop loss of 2-4 units, do you mean $250-500 for $125 per hand? I'm guessing the loss amount would be bigger than this? So we have a smaller limit for our wins and a bigger limit for our losses?

How can I do simulations for VP, is there some software available?

Quote: AxelWolf

The 2-hour thing now makes total sense to me. I would mix up the amount of time you spend playing perhaps play 2.5 to 3 hours sometimes.

Do they have standard IGT Video Poker machines? Do they use RNG's? Class 3 type machines?

The fact that the clock resets every 24 hours is great for you. Now it's all about how high the denominations are and checking the paytables. FYI Look for a double-up feature on the machines (check all of them) that would be really good if you can find one. Don't just look at standard VP, other variants could be really good.

Assuming they have enough higher denomination n't feel the need to always play the absolute best EV machines, that may be what they look at when they clear people out. You can give up a little EV for longevity.
Add a little slot/ E-Table, etc play in occasionally, just make sure it's not more than your EV.
Avoid playing next to other Advantage Players.
Don't keep hitting the same place every day.
Play on different shifts if possible.
Don't be robotic.
Do look and act like a ploppy without actually being one.
link to original post

I'm not sure what type the machines are. They look similar to what I have seen on the Jackpot Gents Youtube channel, so I'm guessing pretty standard.

When you say double up feature, do you mean the features like Hot Roll where you double your bet for the extra feature?

Quote: camapl

Hello, Thoich, and welcome to the forum! I agree with the advice already given, especially regarding betting big until you hit either target (win or lose) and then bet small to run out the clock. However, as others have pointed out, you will need to know more about the rules to get more accurate advice. Are you allowed to change bet amounts, machines, or game types during the 2 hour period? This may affect betting big and then betting small. Do you have to opt in or sign up for the promotion? If so, is the time constraint in effect whether you win or lose. This could affect leaving early if you hit your win target if they won’t let you play again next time. You also want to find out if certain bet sizes, certain game types, or certain machines are excluded from this promotion. This may change over time, so you’ll want to be sure to ask before playing each time. You mentioned multiple casinos… If they have different rules, let us know. This is an interesting situation, and I’m sure someone will help you figure it out. Try to avoid giving too much detail about where this is or which casinos offer this. Best of luck!

[Edit to add: You posted while I was writing above, so you may have addressed some of my questions…]
link to original post

Thanks for the reply. I'll answer the questions I haven't already in other posts as best I can. I'm not currently in the area, so a fair amount is unknown to me currently.

I am allowed to change bet amounts, stall etc.

I don't have to opt in. I think I just play, and then at the end of the session if I have lost, I claim the rebate from the cashier. Of course it does require a player card to track the wins/losses.

All bet sizes and games are included, as long as they are VP.

Quote: Thoich

Quote: Mental

I have never seen or heard of an unlimited loss rebate. The casinos would be very vulnerable if they did this. Are you sure there is not a cap on the amount of money they will rebate?

Even if it is unlimited, there is probably a limit to how much you can afford to lose. When I did simulations to optimize VP loss rebates with caps in the past, I usually needed to play in such a way that I would lose at least 80% of the time and make a huge win the other times. If you do this promo aggressively ten times, you could easily lose every time. You would be unusual if you really willing to do they play this aggressively. Also, you would need to commit at least two hours to each play. You will also be cashing in a rebate almost every time you play. The casino might like this or they might be concerned that you are an AP playing the rebate very aggressively.

If you play less aggressively, you might only lose 50% of the time. Half the sessions, you would win early and quit. I presume you don't have to stick around for two hours if you quit ahead.

If you have very modest stop win point, you can get your loss percentage down to maybe 30% of the sessions. If you are playing VP at 125 euros per hand, you might stop is you were ahead just 2 to 4 units. This might mean catching a few trips or one full house early on. Sometimes, you will catch quads or better and have a big score.

If you do simulations, you will find that the EV per session is at a maximum for very high win-stop points. However, if you cut the win-stop point in half, you will typically capture 70% of the EV and be taking on much less risk. In other words, there are always diminishing returns for a loss rebate. If you choose your stop points such that the sessions are very short, you increase your overall EV per unit of coin in.
link to original post

This is very interesting, especially what you are saying about the optimal way to play is to lose 80% of the time.

The way I had been approaching it was assuming a close to 50% winrate. Say for example I aim to win or lose $3,000 half the time. Half the time I get a $600 rebate (I don't think I mentioned yet but the rebate is 20%). This way the promo would be worth $150 an hour. Am I being too naive with thinking of being able to win close to 50% of the time? Even if it's something like 45% it still works out quite well in my favour.

I would have to stick around even if I'm winning, but I can work my way around that. I am allowed to swap machines, play other games and smaller stakes etc.

When you say to aim for a stop loss of 2-4 units, do you mean $250-500 for $125 per hand? I'm guessing the loss amount would be bigger than this? So we have a smaller limit for our wins and a bigger limit for our losses?

How can I do simulations for VP, is there some software available?
link to original post

What I said about losing 80% of the time only applies to simulations of situations I used to encounter for VP rebates. I can't emphasize this enough: Everything depends on the games and bet limits available combined with the parameters of the rebate promotion.

If your best available VP game is 10/7 double bonus, then you want to set your stop-win limit to infinity. The game is +EV before the promotion, so stopping is always wrong in a theoretical sense of maximizing overall EV.

If your best game is 98% 9/5 DDB, then you have to set a fairly tight stop-win limit. Otherwise, the 2% house edge on your action will overwhelm the rebate value.

If the house edge is greater than the rebate percentage, then playing for the rebate is always -EV. Everything depends on the situation you have at hand.

Unless you can do simulations, you should be very conservative with your stop-win goal. If you are doing a rebate where the number of hands averages 40 hands or less, you can do the simulation in a simple spreadsheet. If you are likely to have to play 100 hands or more, then you might need to use a program tailored to your situation. I have a loss rebate calculator built into my VP strategy analyzer. The analyzer create the probability distribution functions (PDF) for a single game of single-play or multi-play VP. This PDF get handed off to some code that runs the simulation. It outputs the EV versus each possible stop-win limit. I usually quit when I get to about 75% of the max EV.

Maybe this rebate capability is built into some commercial software. I would not know about that.

Quote: Thoich

Quote: AxelWolf

The 2-hour thing now makes total sense to me. I would mix up the amount of time you spend playing perhaps play 2.5 to 3 hours sometimes.

Do they have standard IGT Video Poker machines? Do they use RNG's? Class 3 type machines?

The fact that the clock resets every 24 hours is great for you. Now it's all about how high the denominations are and checking the paytables. FYI Look for a double-up feature on the machines (check all of them) that would be really good if you can find one. Don't just look at standard VP, other variants could be really good.

Assuming they have enough higher denomination n't feel the need to always play the absolute best EV machines, that may be what they look at when they clear people out. You can give up a little EV for longevity.
Add a little slot/ E-Table, etc play in occasionally, just make sure it's not more than your EV.
Avoid playing next to other Advantage Players.
Don't keep hitting the same place every day.
Play on different shifts if possible.
Don't be robotic.
Do look and act like a ploppy without actually being one.
link to original post

I'm not sure what type the machines are. They look similar to what I have seen on the Jackpot Gents Youtube channel, so I'm guessing pretty standard.

When you say double up feature, do you mean the features like Hot Roll where you double your bet for the extra feature?
link to original post

No, but you should look into those types of games.

The double-up feature means that when you have a winning hand you can choose to go double or nothing on a 50/50 proposition. Usually, you can double up multiple times. I.E. a 20-coin win would go to 40 then 80, then 160, then 320, and so on. Your initial bet is the only bet exposed to the House Advantage. That is the nuts for exploiting a loss rebate, extreme variance, less exposure to the HA, and it's more controllable. It's especially helpful if there are no higher-limit VP games.

It's like letting it ride. Letting it ride usually means you let your winnings ride on the next hand thus exposing it to the HA or PA.

It seems like the two hour rule is a loose rule of thumb and management reserves all rights. In that case, I would probably bet more consistently, or at least play at a close to normal pace and not a hand every two minutes or whatever just to avoid the timeout, since that would definitely raise suspicion if there was coin in for 50 hands per hour instead of the usual 500. Double up is a feature which many casinos turned off after the exploit of that bug about a decade or so ago, but the concept of increasing volatility is the same. Hot Roll is a good example of something that adds volatility with no EV benefit. Same with Dreamcard, Super/Double Super Times Pay, etc. For these kind of loss rebates, volatility is your friend. It probably is not going to be great grinding Jacks or Better if Triple Double is available. Most ploppy gamblers also play DDB, TDB, Deuces Bonus, etc. so that also provides cover. Normally I would say play some slots for cover, but that would be -EV for little benefit, but if you see a Buffalo, Scarab, Regal Riches, or the like in a positive state (even if it is marginal) you might as well play it.

Quote: calwatch

It seems like the two hour rule is a loose rule of thumb and management reserves all rights. In that case, I would probably bet more consistently, or at least play at a close to normal pace and not a hand every two minutes or whatever just to avoid the timeout, since that would definitely raise suspicion if there was coin in for 50 hands per hour instead of the usual 500. Double up is a feature which many casinos turned off after the exploit of that bug about a decade or so ago, but the concept of increasing volatility is the same. Hot Roll is a good example of something that adds volatility with no EV benefit. Same with Dreamcard, Super/Double Super Times Pay, etc. For these kind of loss rebates, volatility is your friend. It probably is not going to be great grinding Jacks or Better if Triple Double is available. Most ploppy gamblers also play DDB, TDB, Deuces Bonus, etc. so that also provides cover. Normally I would say play some slots for cover, but that would be -EV for little benefit, but if you see a Buffalo, Scarab, Regal Riches, or the like in a positive state (even if it is marginal) you might as well play it.
link to original post

I find double up's frequently.

I would stay away from Vulture slots so not to get caught up with the vultures.