NeilLCC
Joined: Nov 19, 2021
• Posts: 5
November 21st, 2021 at 11:51:47 AM permalink
I think it unlikely Evolution could or would reveal more than they already have.
The multipliers are meant to be selected randomly, anything else could be considered manipulation, unless of course they publish the frequency, which they haven't.
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LC1
Joined: Nov 21, 2021
• Posts: 14
November 21st, 2021 at 12:13:02 PM permalink
Quote: NeilLCC

I think it unlikely Evolution could or would reveal more than they already have.
The multipliers are meant to be selected randomly, anything else could be considered manipulation, unless of course they publish the frequency, which they haven't.

As I mentioned, the multipliers apparently only occur in six possible combinations. The implication seems to be that these are all equally probable, but that is not entirely clear.
LC1
Joined: Nov 21, 2021
• Posts: 14
November 21st, 2021 at 12:41:22 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Having a correct optimal strategy as a function of the size of the active multiplier is what we were basically try to achieve. If they give us that, and we can reproduce it here and in the WOO site, then we will have achieved our basic goal.

The issue of frequency of multipliers is only important if we want to achieve any of these goals:

1. independent confirmation of the house edge

2. evaluate the game against other criteria, e.g., volatility, or issues with casinos reporting large payouts to the IRS

3. study the game design to learn from it

4. evaluation of the published optimal strategy to see if we can identify an even better strategy

I confess some of the complexities have been giving me a headache. I need to look through this thread in detail to get a better understanding. I've been unclear in my own mind whether the optimal strategy is purely a function of the current multiplier, or whether the frequencies are also a factor. [Given that a higher frequency of the bigger multipliers for high totals will cause you to be more likely to aggressively hit the next hand, chasing such a multiplier, and thus will make the win percentage on each hand lower, meaning the value of carrying forward a multiplier from the current hand is reduced accordingly.]

I'm not sure how much sense the above makes, and apologies if it seems like rambling. :-)
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 6343
Thanks for this post from:
November 21st, 2021 at 1:47:14 PM permalink
Quote: LC1

Hi,
Evolution has published their full strategy for the game, accessible via a link in the in-game help text.

[I've been trying to post the link here, but the forum interface keeps removing the bulk of the text when I paste it in, for some reason! In the game help, you can find it in the 'payouts' section - 'Open Strategy in New Window'.]

BRILLIANTLY WELL SPOTTED

It's a little complex and each icon is a link to a busy page.
Something for our maths guys to get their teeth into
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 2577
November 21st, 2021 at 1:55:05 PM permalink
The optimal strategy will be a function of both the incoming multiplier and the set of multipliers for the next hand. Knowing the distribution of the ratios will give an idea of the former, there may be some recursion needed, but unless there are multiple minimums it will give the strategy and house edge. It would be great if someone could copy their strategies here.
Thanks for the above post which crossed with mine.
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 6343
Thanks for this post from:
November 21st, 2021 at 2:01:26 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

The optimal strategy will be a function of both the incoming multiplier and the set of multipliers for the next hand. Knowing the distribution of the ratios will give an idea of the former, there may be some recursion needed, but unless there are multiple minimums it will give the strategy and house edge. It would be great if someone could copy their strategies here.

To copy Evolution's strategy here would infringe copyright. But here's a link
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 2577
November 21st, 2021 at 2:14:41 PM permalink
Quote:

To copy Evolution's strategy here would infringe copyright. But here's a link

I agree - when I get back off holiday it will be easy for me to plug in the various factors and see, as an exercise, how close infinite decks gets to their strategies - the difficulty will be working out how often you get the various multipliers into the next hand; i.e. how often the player gets 17, 18, etc.
Joined: Dec 4, 2015
• Posts: 152
November 21st, 2021 at 2:23:10 PM permalink
Protect it

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gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 3627
November 21st, 2021 at 8:08:41 PM permalink
I have done some spot sampling of Evolution's posted strategy table on Lightning BJ.

1. I found it confusing.

2. It is not formatted in a way that is useable for 99% of humans on Earth; it is far too massive and complex.

3. It does seem to recommend Doubling Down on unconventional hands such as (12-17) and (5-8) when you have a large enoughg multiplier active, so we have that aspect of it correct.

4. It calls for splitting everything but 5-5 with most multipliers. It calls for splitting TT versus 2-7 starting with a multiplier of 2!
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009