baccarat betting system investment
However, the return suggested has many risks.
- does the system work? Highly unlikely to impossible. A series of negative edge bets can't be made into a positive bet. There is almost 0 correlation between two hands of baccarat, and nothing like enough to create an edge. Player, Banker, Tue tracking can be shown to not be enough to gain any edge. So if your friend is doing magic based on tracking these, it ain't gonna work. Many people can simulate the game for a small cost to show you that... in a way that's far better than applying it to 100 shoes from pre-produced lists.
- if it works, how do you know your player is honest?
- if it works, how do you know your player won't tilt?
- if it works, how do you know that the casino won't shut the play down and back off the player?
All those risks need to be understood in your investment calculation. As there's a HUGE risk the system doesn't work overall, then you'd need a massive return to mitigate that risk, if you ask me. You can mitigate that risk for much less than 50K by doing your own research on the system, or baccarat in general. Or taking the wisdom of the experienced who'll tell you... stay away.
Quote: NokTangJust read about a match fixing scandal in Australia. Minor league tennis of all things. People bet on basically unheard of tennis matches? I think an investment in a sports syndicate which as they all say, has influence on sporting events outcomes, is a better investment.
Where did you hear about it? Somebody has been trying to sell me the predestined outcome to these matches but I said "no," in part because I didn't know anywhere to bet them.
This has my attention.Quote: WizardWhere did you hear about it? Somebody has been trying to sell me the predestined outcome to these matches but I said "no," in part because I didn't know anywhere to bet them.
Quote: WizardWhere did you hear about it? Somebody has been trying to sell me the predestined outcome to these matches but I said "no," in part because I didn't know anywhere to bet them.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/gangland-police-arrest-six-men-on-tennis-match-fixing-allegations-20140718-zucky.html
Don't get involved with crossing the Purana Team, they leave no stone unturned
Quote: ottogtr
if he use only his $50k he can only make $50k a year doing this full time. ill give you the math to this...
$50k divide into 1000 units
thats $50 per flat bet
with a profit of 1/2 units per shoe thats $25
each baccarat shoe(80 hands) takes more than an hour to finish but the system is simple so a shoe can be done in less than an hour if he plays by himself.
he can play 8 shoes a day for 5 days a week for 52 weeks a year
$25 x8 x5 x52 =$52k
OK, Assuming that the 'system' can generate this Profit , is it a good Investment?
I assume he flat bets on all 80 hands 1 unit.
Assuming Variance of around 1.
Return: 0,5 / 80 = 0,6% That's a lousy return. Say in BJ with counting and good game you get around 1,5%.
Win per Hour = $25. On a $50.000 bankroll, $25 is a lousy return. Should not be interesting below $50
SCORE (Standard Comparison of Risk and Expectation) = 36 That's a medicocre Score also.
EVEN IF (which it does not) the system produces the returns you say, is still not a good Investment Opportunity.
The strategy is either betting 25 or 50 hands per shoe.Quote: AceTwoOK, Assuming that the 'system' can generate this Profit , is it a good Investment?
I assume he flat bets on all 80 hands 1 unit.
Assuming Variance of around 1.
Return: 0,5 / 80 = 0,6% That's a lousy return. Say in BJ with counting and good game you get around 1,5%.
Win per Hour = $25. On a $50.000 bankroll, $25 is a lousy return. Should not be interesting below $50
SCORE (Standard Comparison of Risk and Expectation) = 36 That's a medicocre Score also.
EVEN IF (which it does not) the system produces the returns you say, is still not a good Investment Opportunity.
If 25 return 0,5 / 25 = 2%, if 50 return 1%
Quote: AceTwoOK, Assuming that the 'system' can generate this Profit , is it a good Investment?
I assume he flat bets on all 80 hands 1 unit.
Assuming Variance of around 1.
Return: 0,5 / 80 = 0,6% That's a lousy return. Say in BJ with counting and good game you get around 1,5%.
Win per Hour = $25. On a $50.000 bankroll, $25 is a lousy return. Should not be interesting below $50
SCORE (Standard Comparison of Risk and Expectation) = 36 That's a medicocre Score also.
EVEN IF (which it does not) the system produces the returns you say, is still not a good Investment Opportunity.
I disagree. The game has absolutely no heat. You can do almost perfect Kelly betting.
Assuming variance of 1 (it's actually lower if you bet banker) you can bet 0.6% of your bankroll on each hand. So at the beginning you should be betting $300 per hand (why would you only bet $50? I guess someone who believes in voodoo betting systems can't be expected to understand how to do proper bet sizing either). As your bankroll goes up and down you can raise and lower your bets proportionally. Baccarat has games available with very high maximums too.
0.6% is a great return in a game with no heat where you can size your bets as you wish. Look at the Wizard's betting system page to see simulations of how quickly you can turn a small sum of money into something obscene.
Of course, as you point out, the system is complete BS so anyone who "invests" $50k you will never see it again. You may as well give me the $50k -- you have about the same chance of ever seeing any of it again, and I promise you that I will have a good time with it.
Quote: ottogtri have a good friend that i have known for more than 20 years. the both of us have been gambling together for about the same amount of time. a few months ago he told me that he came up with a betting system for baccarat and if i wanted to invest with his group.
Dear ottogtr,
I am the widow of the late dictator General Gozalli Shiwazuiklo of the West Africa Kingdom
and I have a large sum of money at my disposal.
I believe you and your friend and your friend's system.
I want to invest 200K (two hundred thousand) US dollars immediately.
Please provide me your bank account information so that I can direct deposit my money into it.
I need your bank's name, routing number, your account number,
you full name, billing address, phone number and valid email address,
your social security number and date of birth,
and your online account login information and password (including security questions with answers).
Yours sincerely,
Quote: pokerfaceDear ottogtr,
I am the widow of the late dictator General Gozalli Shiwazuiklo of the West Africa Kingdom
and I have a large sum of money at my disposal.
I believe you and your friend and your friend's system.
I want to invest 200K (two hundred thousand) US dollars immediately.
Please provide me your bank account information so that I can direct deposit my money into it.
I need your bank's name, routing number, your account number,
you full name, billing address, phone number and valid email address,
your social security number and date of birth,
and your online account login information and password (including security questions with answers).
Yours sincerely,
Don't forget his mother's maiden name and his shoe size.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI disagree. The game has absolutely no heat. You can do almost perfect Kelly betting.
Assuming variance of 1 (it's actually lower if you bet banker) you can bet 0.6% of your bankroll on each hand. So at the beginning you should be betting $300 per hand (why would you only bet $50? I guess someone who believes in voodoo betting systems can't be expected to understand how to do proper bet sizing either). As your bankroll goes up and down you can raise and lower your bets proportionally. Baccarat has games available with very high maximums too.
0.6% is a great return in a game with no heat where you can size your bets as you wish. Look at the Wizard's betting system page to see simulations of how quickly you can turn a small sum of money into something obscene.
I was not putting Heat in the Equation. Just like for like for other AP oppotunities only on the math side.
And the variance could be a lot higher. It could be bets on Ties.
And I was using his own numbers for betting $25 and not Full Kelly at $300.
As for Kelly, I do not thing many APs play Full Kelly. At most Half Kelly and mostly Quarter Kelly.
There are usually too many unknowns on the exact EV so the fraction kelly is the conservative method.
But mostly, phsychologically Full Kelly, is a Real Roller Coaster on the Bankroll.
Very goodQuote: pokerfaceDear ottogtr,
I am the widow of the late dictator General Gozalli Shiwazuiklo of the West Africa Kingdom
and I have a large sum of money at my disposal.
I believe you and your friend and your friend's system.
I want to invest 200K (two hundred thousand) US dollars immediately.
Please provide me your bank account information so that I can direct deposit my money into it.
I need your bank's name, routing number, your account number,
you full name, billing address, phone number and valid email address,
your social security number and date of birth,
and your online account login information and password (including security questions with answers).
Yours sincerely,
Quote: AceTwoI was not putting Heat in the Equation. Just like for like for other AP oppotunities only on the math side.
And the variance could be a lot higher. It could be bets on Ties.
And I was using his own numbers for betting $25 and not Full Kelly at $300.
As for Kelly, I do not thing many APs play Full Kelly. At most Half Kelly and mostly Quarter Kelly.
There are usually too many unknowns on the exact EV so the fraction kelly is the conservative method.
But mostly, phsychologically Full Kelly, is a Real Roller Coaster on the Bankroll.
If you can't handle the swings psychologically, go get a real job.
If you don't know your EV precisely then I would agree that it's best to make a conservative estimate, but referring to this as "half Kelly" is wrong. It's just that the optimal bet value is unknown, and so you are making an estimate while erring on the side of caution.
Most literature that recommends using a fraction of Kelly completely misunderstands Kelly betting anyway, and does not take into account things like your EV fluctuating from hand to hand, the fact that you are also making -EV bets at times (eg, blackjack), the fact that you have to resize your bets as your bankroll fluctuates, and, often, it even ignores the variance of the game and miscalculates the optimal bet. If I had a dollar for every person who mistakenly thought that the optimal Kelly bet was your edge times your bankroll, I'd be rich.
Also, not considering the amount of heat is a big mistake. It is often the most important variable! Al the edge in the world isn't worth a cup of coffee if you can't bet the money.
I think this very thing is highly relevant to the whole matter of someone claiming to sell something like this.Quote: Wizard...but I said "no," in part because I didn't know anywhere to bet them.
Lemon Drop Kid, being an inquisitive sort, has a few questions about the scam. Not about the fixing of obscure Australian tennis matches; that he doesn't question at all. Sounds like "Tuesday" to him. But Mr. L.D. Kid, being in the business of scams long before any of us were born & having invented about half of them, wonders about how the money end goes. He wonders out loud, to no one in particular:
A) Why would someone in on the fix want to be selling it to you, and you, and also you, and y'all, and me, and whatnot?
B) While he has no doubt those most directly concerned can be adequately greased, how could anyone ever hope to lay off enough money in the presumably thin illiquid betting market for such a minor sporting event for it to ever make sense to be selling it to every Tom, Dick, Harry, Wizard, Tang, and Dead guy all over creation?
Just wondering out loud out of pure curiosity, because Lemon D. Kid already has plenty to do with other stuff, so won't be buying into this one.
so you bet more than $50,00 each day casino gambling or over other investments, like gambling on wall street stuffs and in what country.Quote: ottogtri know the $50,000 may sound like a lot to many but i risk more than doing what i do daily.
I say invest $50k (nothing to you) on your craps place 6 and 8 system.Quote: ottogtrfrom what i see this investment looks very good but i want to get some advice from the people on this forum expressly the wizard himself. thanks
I will even make the bets for you in Las Vegas (more for that excellent betting system in your other thread. Seems like lots of fun.)
Also, any player (team) with a large enough bankroll and the right math knowledge
can easily beat the game of Baccarat. It happens all over the world, every day
stuff like this
BBP
BPP
PBP
What is the next winning result?
Banker or Player
is useless
unless the actual cards used for those results are taken into account to start. There is more to it.
more winnings and that really makes for more fun
Sally
Quote: Mikey75If you risk more than 50K a day and 50K means nothing to you, why come to a Internet forum to ask advice? Toss your 50K out of the window and forget about it. If you want real information pay someone a $1000 to run the "system" through a million shoes, like had already been suggested.
I'm pretty sure I called "troll" first.
We really need to start running pools for these things.
Quote: DrawingDeadLessee now, seems like this may have been around a bit, where might I possibly have ever heard of something like this before, oh yeah, it was a little while ago... Aha, here it is, in Collier's Weekly in 1934, and "the oldest trick in the book" is not "hey look, over there" and the "friend" is The Lemon Drop Kid:
http://www.deceptology.com/2011/02/lemon-drop-kid-by-damon-runyon.html
When someone is asking for money at a racetrack, poker room, or casino, he has told you two things about himself:
1. He is a loser; and,
2. He will not stop.
And if he's asking you, you've just discovered who everyone thinks is the biggest sucker in the room.
So just fork over the 50 Gs and wave goodbye already; what a great way to say happy 80th birthday to Damon Runyon's publication of The Lemon Drop Kid! And on opening day today at Saratoga, no less, after 150 years!
this reminds me of the saying:
there is a fish in every poker room, and if you can't find it then its probably you.
i dont know if you gamble or not but gambling for 12 hrs a day is hard work. most people only gamble that long because they are in the hole and they are trying to get some back or until they lose their bankroll. you would never catch someone who is winning and continue playing after a few hours.Quote: AxelWolfHe is fired all ready because he is lazy.
Simply play 12 hrs a day 7 days a week for the first 6 months . He should have about 139k, now he can go back to normal hrs for the next 6 months.
WTF your math is horrible Axel, where did you get an extra 30K????$30,000 Betting System Challenge
Six years and counting without a taker (started April 2008) https://easy.vegas/gambling/betting-system-challenge
This is kind of a joke because I think he charges 50 an hr. The point is, if he can prove a winning baccarat system, I think much greater things are in store for him
and your math is horrible even playing 12 hrs a day 7 days a week for the first 6 months he should only have $54k not 139k or 109k
i bet row 1 skip row 2 bet row 3 for 25+ columnsQuote: ChowSoyI know you wish to keep details secret, if I may;
You say to play for rows 1 and 3. Are either of rows 1 or 3 a reference, or do you actually bet row 1 and 3.
You obviously bet one of them, curious if you bet both?
Choysoy
what to bet for row 1 and 3 is a secret, sorry
im sorry i didnt clearly explain the system correctly. the system is not tracking for bank, player, or tie. coming in a new shoe the system know what to bet already. the system is using the rows and columns keep track where in the shoe it is currently at. if the bettor is not using this to keep track, he might be betting in row 2 which is a no bet for the system.Quote: thecesspitIf you can get the return you think, then it's up to you if that return is worth your investment... that's simple business logic.
However, the return suggested has many risks.
- does the system work? Highly unlikely to impossible. A series of negative edge bets can't be made into a positive bet. There is almost 0 correlation between two hands of baccarat, and nothing like enough to create an edge. Player, Banker, Tue tracking can be shown to not be enough to gain any edge. So if your friend is doing magic based on tracking these, it ain't gonna work. Many people can simulate the game for a small cost to show you that... in a way that's far better than applying it to 100 shoes from pre-produced lists.
- if it works, how do you know your player is honest?
- if it works, how do you know your player won't tilt?
- if it works, how do you know that the casino won't shut the play down and back off the player?
All those risks need to be understood in your investment calculation. As there's a HUGE risk the system doesn't work overall, then you'd need a massive return to mitigate that risk, if you ask me. You can mitigate that risk for much less than 50K by doing your own research on the system, or baccarat in general. Or taking the wisdom of the experienced who'll tell you... stay away.
the comments you listed:
Q: if it works, how do you know your player is honest?
A: i dont know i just hope for the best.
Q: if it works, how do you know your player won't tilt?
A: i dont know again i just hope for the best. at the beginning of the forum some asked me why dont i do it myself. i told its not easy for me. i have no self conroll and it very boring its harder than a real job. if i did have self conroll i wouldnt asking for advice in this forums and i would have run off with his system.
Q: if it works, how do you know that the casino won't shut the play down and back off the player?
A: i know some people in the casino business and they tell me that once a player keep on winning and reach a certin amount they will back him off. they might say that you are too good for us, you can play any other games in the casino but you are not welcome in baccarat. once that happen what else can you do but go onto the next group of casinos.
you are correct chowsoy. the system only bet 2/3 of the first 80 hands of a shoe. this is not to you but to acetwo any profit even with a low return ill take. if this system can produce a profit more than the SnP500 i would be happy.Quote: ChowSoyThe strategy is either betting 25 or 50 hands per shoe.
If 25 return 0,5 / 25 = 2%, if 50 return 1%
now thats funny. i really did receive a call like that sometime ago from nigeria.Quote: pokerfaceDear ottogtr,
I am the widow of the late dictator General Gozalli Shiwazuiklo of the West Africa Kingdom
and I have a large sum of money at my disposal.
I believe you and your friend and your friend's system.
I want to invest 200K (two hundred thousand) US dollars immediately.
Please provide me your bank account information so that I can direct deposit my money into it.
I need your bank's name, routing number, your account number,
you full name, billing address, phone number and valid email address,
your social security number and date of birth,
and your online account login information and password (including security questions with answers).
Yours sincerely,
The Lemon Drop Kid is looking forward to it, as he hopes he may pick up some newfangled pointers for telling the tale.Quote: ottogtrthank you for everyone comments and advices ill see ya later next week.
Quote: ottogtrim sorry i didnt clearly explain the system correctly. the system is not tracking for bank, player, or tie. coming in a new shoe the system know what to bet already. the system is using the rows and columns keep track where in the shoe it is currently at. if the bettor is not using this to keep track, he might be betting in row 2 which is a no bet for the system.
the comments you listed:
Q: if it works, how do you know your player is honest?
A: i dont know i just hope for the best.
Q: if it works, how do you know your player won't tilt?
A: i dont know again i just hope for the best. at the beginning of the forum some asked me why dont i do it myself. i told its not easy for me. i have no self conroll and it very boring its harder than a real job. if i did have self conroll i wouldnt asking for advice in this forums and i would have run off with his system.
Q: if it works, how do you know that the casino won't shut the play down and back off the player?
A: i know some people in the casino business and they tell me that once a player keep on winning and reach a certin amount they will back him off. they might say that you are too good for us, you can play any other games in the casino but you are not welcome in baccarat. once that happen what else can you do but go onto the next group of casinos.
I don't think any of those 3 questions have much merit. The question that should really be asked is: Does the system work? Naturally, I say no, it doesn't/wouldn't work (each bet has -EV, and all negative numbers does not lead to a positive one). But, who knows, maybe the system does work.
I assume anyone (at least OP) who is willing to invest, believes the player(s) are honest. That's the absolute bottom line for team play.
Going on tilt is, essentially, the opposite of being honest. An honest player will not go on tilt.
Lastly, I don't think the possibility of a player getting backed-off is a reason to not invest in a +EV play (assuming, for now, it is +EV). Players are backed off all the time for counting in BJ and hole-carding carny games....and I don't think anyone thinks, "Well, I might get backed off, so I'm just not gonna play." All a back-off means is that a play is (temporarily) shut-down. The player can return on a later date to play, or even go play at any other casino. And....getting backed off at baccarat seems rather mystical, to me.
IF you can verify it's a winning system and believe the player(s) is/are honest, I say go for it.
But really......how are you going to verify it is a winning system? I'm sure plenty of people here would be happy to calculate the EV for the game you desire to bankroll and show what edge (or lack of edge) you'd have.
Without giving away too many details, could you explain why you skip row 2?
most systems wait for a pattern/condition to appear and then bet. if the system works in row 1 and row 3, why skip row 2?
but he already has 50k. You said he needed more to bet more so his hourly would be better. Also add in the 30 he would win for that challenge.Quote: ottogtri dont know if you gamble or not but gambling for 12 hrs a day is hard work. most people only gamble that long because they are in the hole and they are trying to get some back or until they lose their bankroll. you would never catch someone who is winning and continue playing after a few hours.Quote: AxelWolfHe is fired all ready because he is lazy.
Simply play 12 hrs a day 7 days a week for the first 6 months . He should have about 139k, now he can go back to normal hrs for the next 6 months.
WTF your math is horrible Axel, where did you get an extra 30K????$30,000 Betting System Challenge
Six years and counting without a taker (started April 2008) http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge.html
This is kind of a joke because I think he charges 50 an hr. The point is, if he can prove a winning baccarat system, I think much greater things are in store for him
and your math is horrible even playing 12 hrs a day 7 days a week for the first 6 months he should only have $54k not 139k or 109k
12 hrs a day is nothing i used to put in 16 hrs a day for at least the fist few years. I would take a weekend off for dates and having fun. Trust me if the money is rolling in its not work its fun. I hated sleeping.
NVM all of that, there is no system like you are doing that will beat Baccarat anyways. If you can get enough money put together there are PROVEN ways to get an advantage.
you could be triggering off row 1 for row 1, off row 3 for row 3, or off 1 for 3 or 3 for 1, even both for 1 and/or 3, while trying to minimising exposure by ignoring row 2.Quote: andysifNow I am getting really interested, and hope the OP could answer this:
Without giving away too many details, could you explain why you skip row 2?
most systems wait for a pattern/condition to appear and then bet. if the system works in row 1 and row 3, why skip row 2?
Obviously when you trigger off anything the result could be either B or P. As the OP has stated "all bets are flat bets" it can only be assumed there is some element of probability at play here. This does not mean you can guess right, you know which which is going to win, rather over the course of approximately 80 hands you do not expect one condition to be more frequent than another condition, or certainly not over multiple shoes.
Do you think back in 2010, somebody decided, I'll create this ID make a couple of posts and wait four years before posting again.
Choisoy
Quote: ottogtrim sorry i didnt clearly explain the system correctly. the system is not tracking for bank, player, or tie. coming in a new shoe the system know what to bet already. the system is using the rows and columns keep track where in the shoe it is currently at. if the bettor is not using this to keep track, he might be betting in row 2 which is a no bet for the system.
This makes little sense to me. You know what to bet already? Where you are in the shoe? Rows? You can probably break it down into better detail (if you or the inventor can't, another alarm bell), but that's beside the point really.
Knowing which way to bet on a blind shoe? I'd spend $25 on a book or two on simple gambling probability. I believe the site owner has written one. In short, baccarat is a series of independent events. There are no patterns, just imagined ones.
Quote:
the comments you listed:
Q: if it works, how do you know your player is honest?
A: i dont know i just hope for the best.
Seems like a risk to take.
Quote:
Q: if it works, how do you know your player won't tilt?
A: i dont know again i just hope for the best. at the beginning of the forum some asked me why dont i do it myself. i told its not easy for me. i have no self conroll and it very boring its harder than a real job. if i did have self conroll i wouldnt asking for advice in this forums and i would have run off with his system.
Yet you have the self control to ask these questions. Have a think about that...
Quote:
Q: if it works, how do you know that the casino won't shut the play down and back off the player?
A: i know some people in the casino business and they tell me that once a player keep on winning and reach a certin amount they will back him off. they might say that you are too good for us, you can play any other games in the casino but you are not welcome in baccarat. once that happen what else can you do but go onto the next group of casinos.
Sure this is a super minor question. In fact all three of them are pretty minor given the risk that the 'system' is hookum and balderdash. That is incredibly high. Up to you if you want to 'invest' 50 grand in a super high risk, relatively low risk venture. There's gotta be better way for a business man to invest 50k, even in high risk areas that he knows something about.
Didn't you just answer your own point right there? If Baccarat is a series of independant trials, then what does it matter how you bet, or have pre-determined how you will bet?Quote: thecesspitThis makes little sense to me. You know what to bet already? Where you are in the shoe? Rows? You can probably break it down into better detail (if you or the inventor can't, another alarm bell), but that's beside the point really.
Knowing which way to bet on a blind shoe? I'd spend $25 on a book or two on simple gambling probability. I believe the site owner has written one. In short, baccarat is a series of independent events. There are no patterns, just imagined ones.
Quote: ChowSoyDidn't you just answer your own point right there? If Baccarat is a series of independant trials, then what does it matter how you bet, or have pre-determined how you will bet?Quote: thecesspitThis makes little sense to me. You know what to bet already? Where you are in the shoe? Rows? You can probably break it down into better detail (if you or the inventor can't, another alarm bell), but that's beside the point really.
Knowing which way to bet on a blind shoe? I'd spend $25 on a book or two on simple gambling probability. I believe the site owner has written one. In short, baccarat is a series of independent events. There are no patterns, just imagined ones.
Exactly, it doesn't matter! You'll be hit by the house edge just like everyone else.
Oh yeah that dreaded house edge that forever gets thrown about.Quote: thecesspitExactly, it doesn't matter! You'll be hit by the house edge just like everyone else.
Cool story from earlier in the week, while I've looked for this particular shoe, I haven't managed to find it, the gist of it was the Player hands out numbered the Banker hands just slightly more than 3-1, the Bank doubled twice in the entire shoe, the poor fella whom only bets Bank got slaughtered (wonder if he's ever visited the Wiz's site). This isn't a one-off either, many times you will see Player = 19 hands, Bank = 3 hands at the start of the shoe, things such as this would fill me with the upmost confidence to keep on doing what I'm doing because the HE is .18% lower on the Bank side.
There was some big hitting American in town earlier in the week for a golf tournament, his people phoned ahead to say he would be coming, how and what he wanted. He never played in the roped off area, rather mingled with the public, betting only 5 numbers on a roulette wheel with a specially pre-arranged limit, he was laying down £1000 chips, £5k per spin, usually two tables at once, soon increased to £9k per spin as he started taking splits around number 29, which hit twice in a row BTW. He got paid £220,000 on those spins alone. He also had other wins (32 hit as soon as he started). All in all he easily won over $500,000 for a few hours.
I'm sure the house edge of 2.7% (actually it is 1.34%) will cause him concern him one day, meanwhile I'd bet he had a good day watching the golf the next day. Too be honest, had the night gone the other way, he wouldn't have blinked an eye-lid, multi-millionaire and former CEO of an anti-virus software company, not it was Peter.
House edge, long term, oh please.
Quote: DrawingDeadThe Lemon Drop Kid is looking forward to it, as he hopes he may pick up some newfangled pointers for telling the tale.
Who/what is Lemon Drop Kid a reference to?
Quote: ChowSoyOh yeah that dreaded house edge that forever gets thrown about.
Cool story from earlier in the week, while I've looked for this particular shoe, I haven't managed to find it, the gist of it was the Player hands out numbered the Banker hands just slightly more than 3-1, the Bank doubled twice in the entire shoe, the poor fella whom only bets Bank got slaughtered (wonder if he's ever visited the Wiz's site). This isn't a one-off either, many times you will see Player = 19 hands, Bank = 3 hands at the start of the shoe, things such as this would fill me with the upmost confidence to keep on doing what I'm doing because the HE is .18% lower on the Bank side.
There was some big hitting American in town earlier in the week for a golf tournament, his people phoned ahead to say he would be coming, how and what he wanted. He never played in the roped off area, rather mingled with the public, betting only 5 numbers on a roulette wheel with a specially pre-arranged limit, he was laying down £1000 chips, £5k per spin, usually two tables at once, soon increased to £9k per spin as he started taking splits around number 29, which hit twice in a row BTW. He got paid £220,000 on those spins alone. He also had other wins (32 hit as soon as he started). All in all he easily won over $500,000 for a few hours.
I'm sure the house edge of 2.7% (actually it is 1.34%) will cause him concern him one day, meanwhile I'd bet he had a good day watching the golf the next day. Too be honest, had the night gone the other way, he wouldn't have blinked an eye-lid, multi-millionaire and former CEO of an anti-virus software company, not it was Peter.
House edge, long term, oh please.
Can you disclose which casino this was? I assume you refer to the British Open but thought it was outside of London?
Quote: ottogtr
...only need to play 2/3 of the first 80 hands of a shoe
the system will win 1/2 a unit per shoe.
for example B P P P B B P P B B will be the first 10 hands of the shoe
and this is how it will be score on the sheet.
Row1 B P P B
Row2 P B P
Row3 P B B
system plays only row 1 and row 3 for first 25 or so columns(first 80 hands only).
what to play for row 1 and row 3 will be kept a secret.
bankroll for the system will be a 1000 units just in case the system runs into a dry spell.
i bet row 1 skip row 2 bet row 3 for 25+ columns
what to bet for row 1 and 3 is a secret, sorry
the system is not tracking for bank, player, or tie. coming in a new shoe the system know what to bet already.
the system is using the rows and columns keep track where in the shoe it is currently at.
if the bettor is not using this to keep track, he might be betting in row 2 which is a no bet for the system.
the system only bet 2/3 of the first 80 hands of a shoe...
Another AP ("M. C.") told me about the similar system circa 2012. I need to find M. C. again in my neck of the woods and show him this post. Perhaps M. C. will tell readers what to bet for row 1 and row 3.
It is a reference to... The Lemon Drop Kid. The creation of a writer named Damon Runyon early in the last century. And who appears to have been resurrected as a "friend" in this thread (and probably in more than a couple of other similar ones appearing from time to time). He wrote about scammers & scoundrels & pigeons & disreputable New York racetrack characters - and some of his short stories were made into stage plays and eventually movies such as "Guys and Dollls." See link below: -> -> ->Quote: AxiomOfChoiceQuote: DrawingDeadThe Lemon Drop Kid is looking forward to it, as he hopes he may pick up some newfangled pointers for telling the tale.
Who/what is Lemon Drop Kid a reference to?
Quote: DrawingDeadLessee now, seems like this may have been around a bit, where might I possibly have ever heard of something like this before, oh yeah, it was a little while ago... Aha, here it is, in Collier's Weekly in 1934, and "the oldest trick in the book" is not "hey look, over there" and the "friend" is The Lemon Drop Kid:
http://www.deceptology.com/2011/02/lemon-drop-kid-by-damon-runyon.html <- <- <- <- <-
When someone is asking for money at a racetrack, poker room, or casino, he has told you two things about himself:
1. He is a loser; and,
2. He will not stop.
And if he's asking you, you've just discovered who everyone thinks is the biggest sucker in the room.
So just fork over the 50 Gs and wave goodbye already; what a great way to say happy 80th birthday to Damon Runyon's publication of The Lemon Drop Kid! And on opening day today at Saratoga, no less, after 150 years!
This is intriguing because something similar was posted on another web-site which is no longer around. Based on distribution, along the same lines as if you take a bunch of random decisions, be it roulette spins or Baccarat decisions, while the probability for any 10 hand sequence is the exact same. Patterns such as XXXXXXXXXX or XOXOXOXOXO show less frequently, might be non-related,Quote: ArtemisQuote: ottogtr
...only need to play 2/3 of the first 80 hands of a shoe
the system will win 1/2 a unit per shoe.
for example B P P P B B P P B B will be the first 10 hands of the shoe
and this is how it will be score on the sheet.
Row1 B P P B
Row2 P B P
Row3 P B B
system plays only row 1 and row 3 for first 25 or so columns(first 80 hands only).
what to play for row 1 and row 3 will be kept a secret.
bankroll for the system will be a 1000 units just in case the system runs into a dry spell.
i bet row 1 skip row 2 bet row 3 for 25+ columns
what to bet for row 1 and 3 is a secret, sorry
the system is not tracking for bank, player, or tie. coming in a new shoe the system know what to bet already.
the system is using the rows and columns keep track where in the shoe it is currently at.
if the bettor is not using this to keep track, he might be betting in row 2 which is a no bet for the system.
the system only bet 2/3 of the first 80 hands of a shoe...
Another AP ("M. C.") told me about the similar system circa 2012. I need to find M. C. again in my neck of the woods and show him this post. Perhaps M. C. will tell readers what to bet for row 1 and row 3.
Quote: ChowSoywhile the probability for any 10 hand sequence is the exact same. Patterns such as XXXXXXXXXX or XOXOXOXOXO show less frequently
Exactly the same, but also less frequent. Brilliant.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceExactly the same, but also less frequent. Brilliant.
The double talk from the anti-mathers is always amazing.
Well if you say it or not many people will surely persist in "seeing" it. Because they must. Imposing patterns amid randomness is a strong human psychological need that I think probably gets even stronger in the emotionally charged incentives of a gambler: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ApopheniaQuote: strictlyAP...I might as well come on here and day there are patterns in blackjack as well
Quote: ChowSoyThis is intriguing because something similar was posted on another web-site which is no longer around. Based on distribution, along the same lines as if you take a bunch of random decisions, be it roulette spins or Baccarat decisions, while the probability for any 10 hand sequence is the exact same. Patterns such as XXXXXXXXXX or XOXOXOXOXO show less frequently, might be non-related,Quote: ArtemisQuote: ottogtr
...only need to play 2/3 of the first 80 hands of a shoe
the system will win 1/2 a unit per shoe.
for example B P P P B B P P B B will be the first 10 hands of the shoe
and this is how it will be score on the sheet.
Row1 B P P B
Row2 P B P
Row3 P B B
system plays only row 1 and row 3 for first 25 or so columns(first 80 hands only).
what to play for row 1 and row 3 will be kept a secret.
bankroll for the system will be a 1000 units just in case the system runs into a dry spell.
i bet row 1 skip row 2 bet row 3 for 25+ columns
what to bet for row 1 and 3 is a secret, sorry
the system is not tracking for bank, player, or tie. coming in a new shoe the system know what to bet already.
the system is using the rows and columns keep track where in the shoe it is currently at.
if the bettor is not using this to keep track, he might be betting in row 2 which is a no bet for the system.
the system only bet 2/3 of the first 80 hands of a shoe...
Another AP ("M. C.") told me about the similar system circa 2012. I need to find M. C. again in my neck of the woods and show him this post. Perhaps M. C. will tell readers what to bet for row 1 and row 3.
you are mistaking probability and entropy.
XXXXXXXXXX or XOXOXOXOXO and any other combination had the same PROBABILITYY
what's different about XXXXXXXXXX or XOXOXOXOXO is that they have low ENTROPY.
and frankly, i think nobody had yet figured out a way to take advantage of difference in entropy.
Hey a non-bigotted view, thanks, betting against their occurance is one of a few options. I wouldn't personally be considering patterns of 10 however, too difficult to manage (Bernoulli).Quote: andysif
you are mistaking probability and entropy.
XXXXXXXXXX or XOXOXOXOXO and any other combination had the same PROBABILITYY
what's different about XXXXXXXXXX or XOXOXOXOXO is that they have low ENTROPY.
and frankly, i think nobody had yet figured out a way to take advantage of difference in entropy.
