Poll

10 votes (27.02%)
1 vote (2.7%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
8 votes (21.62%)
1 vote (2.7%)
2 votes (5.4%)
23 votes (62.16%)
2 votes (5.4%)

37 members have voted

WongBo
WongBo
Joined: Feb 3, 2012
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March 20th, 2012 at 9:54:12 PM permalink
I did not include Borgata nor Revel in this list, though I suppose anything is possible....
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pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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March 20th, 2012 at 10:41:59 PM permalink
None of them are doing very well. Here is the change in % from this February 2012 to February 2011.
Ceasars Inc
Bally's AC (10.4%)
Caesars (7.7%)
Harrah's 4.4%
Showboat (5.0%)

Golden Nugget N/A - changed management
Trump Marina N/A - changed management
Borgata 7.2%

ACH (Atlantic Club) (28.6%)
Tropicana (27.4%)
Trump Plaza (22.1%)
Trump Taj Mahal (9.1%)
Resorts (10.4%)

Since the Trump Plaza has been actively on the market for over a year, I would have to go with them.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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March 21st, 2012 at 2:38:05 AM permalink
Tropicana has legal, public relations and economic trouble... so I guess its weakest. Bankers don't lend if they think the regulators are getting ready to pounce but then again the regulators already have shoved their weight around and those fears may be over with?
Are the percentage figures NEGATIVE?... ie, decreases in revenues since you phrased the time as from 2012 to 2011.

I guess it will be whoever is least likely to ever turn around in time. Get rid of the weakest for whatever you can get and hang on the rest is the Evil Empire's likely goal.
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
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March 21st, 2012 at 4:03:14 AM permalink
Since the owner of Resorts just keeled over, I'm going to go with Resorts.
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Boz
Boz
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March 21st, 2012 at 5:43:23 AM permalink
Atlantic Club (new name for the ACH) has promised to keep the place open until October. If that and a 28% drop are not enough to make it the odds on favorite, how about a bad location and a new place to market to locals?

Also looking deeper at these numbes and you will see that the weather was much better this year than 2011 with no snow at all.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 21st, 2012 at 6:04:31 AM permalink
Arguments can be made for every property.


Of the 4 Caesars properties, each has good reason for not being an obvious choice for closing:

Caesars is the namesake.
Bally's is connected to Caesars.
Harrah's is the most luxurious.
ShowBoat is the dumpiest, except it's right next door to Revel, and will get the immediate overflow and smokers looking to gamble.


Of the Trump properties:

Taj Mahal was the bench-mark for comparisons before Borgata opened.
Plaza is the first casino seen when arriving via the AC Expressway.


Of the 6 others:

Borgata. For a couple more weeks, it retains the title of being the bench-mark for comparison for the other casinos. It will retain that title for Revel.
Golden Nugget is finishing up the transition from being Trump Marina. Still too early to tell.
Resorts. Frankly, I'm surprised it's lasted this long.
Tropicana. No opinion.
ACH (Or whatever they're calling it) is repositioning themselves as a locals casino. It remains to be seen how the locals react.
Revel. Well, anything's possible.


That said, I voted ACH and Resorts.
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Mosca
Mosca
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March 21st, 2012 at 6:40:59 AM permalink
This is based on Mrs and my perception of the casinos, not on the numbers.

I voted Trump Plaza. Frankly, the place feels creepy. Next would be Tropicana, the only place where I remember the names of the dealers I DON'T like.

An argument could be made for ACH, simply because until recently we didn't even know there was a casino in that place.

Resorts, we used to like that place. Haven't been there in years, the rooms were getting pretty run down. I wonder if their overtly courting a more adventurous and less staid clientele will help them? I hope so, it only makes sense for a business dedicated to fun to be un-uptight about who's having it.

We were at Showboat in November, and we had a good time (but yes, it was smoky, and dumpy, and the layout is confusing). But folks do like it, like an old slipper.

We thought Harrah's was tight, like Vegas tight. AC slots tend to be small hit/long play, Harrah's seemed like big hit/short play. But maybe we weren't there long enough. But like DJ said, it's not going anywhere. The place is packed on weekends.

Borgata is where we like to play, and we love the dining. We've always felt like we've received good value for our entertainment dollar. Borgata is sticking around.

Out: Trump, Trop, ACH, Resorts, in that order.
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Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
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March 21st, 2012 at 6:52:41 AM permalink
Good analysis DJ...

If it comes down to casinos CLOSING, then my votes go to Atlantic Club, Resorts and Trump Plaza. Resorts is already on its last legs, and Revel will go after what little niche they've carved out with having nightclubs and stuff. Trump Plaza is also hurting and they would be happy to sell it to the first offer. Atlantic Club is most likely going to have to close soon.

If it's about changing management, Showboat is most likely. Caesars and Bally's are connected at the hips and too tough to sell one or the other (and they aren't selling Caesars). Harrah's is getting it right for now, but Caesars needs to unload some properties. Showboat is most likely.
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boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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March 21st, 2012 at 8:05:38 AM permalink
The last period of overall revenue growth (year over year) was the 4th quarter of 2006.

From Q3 2006 to Q3 2011, Revenue at ACH has dropped 53.5%, Nugget 47.6%, Resorts 47.2%, Plaza 47.0%, Ballys 42.9%, Tropicana 41%.

Since 2008 Q4 (3 years), ACH has a operating loss of 58.1 million, Resorts 41.0 million, and Golden Nugget 7.1 million.

For the five months ending February 2012, however, Resorts is showing growth.

So, my bet is that two of ACH, Resorts, and the Plaza closes. The Nugget will struggle. Tropicana will be iffy. Showboat should stay afloat, barely.

Borgata (extremely healthy), Caesars, Harrahs, Ballys, and Taj Majal will be fine. Caesars Entertainment will manage to pay the interest on their debts or restructure.

Revel will do quite well until New York opens table games in and around NYC. Once New York state opens their casinos around 2015, that should be the end of the line for Showboat, Tropicana, Nugget, and at least one of the Caesar properties.
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hook3670
hook3670
Joined: May 17, 2011
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March 21st, 2012 at 8:25:41 AM permalink
I thin ACH is on its last legs. The four Caesars properties are not going anywhere, I don't think. They have stated they are trying to expand nationally since they foolishly got shut out of Asia. Resorts kind of has a niche right now, I do not know for how long though.

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