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Venthus
Venthus
Joined: Dec 10, 2012
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July 16th, 2014 at 10:16:32 PM permalink
Something I've been wondering for some time now, that's somewhat related to the discussion at hand-- where exactly does the advantage in counting come from? I see primarily four sources:

1. Increased chance of getting two high cards in the deal. (For 17-21)
2. Increased chance of doubling and receiving a ten.
3. Increased chance of dealer busting, if it draws.
4. Increased chance of a blackjack.

I feel that a clear answer on this might resolve some of the more outlandish proposals.
dabomboo7o
dabomboo7o
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July 16th, 2014 at 10:17:35 PM permalink
from my understanding it comes from the increased chance for a player blackjack (pay and half)
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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July 17th, 2014 at 7:26:15 AM permalink
Quote: Venthus

Something I've been wondering for some time now, that's somewhat related to the discussion at hand-- where exactly does the advantage in counting come from? I see primarily four sources:

1. Increased chance of getting two high cards in the deal. (For 17-21)
2. Increased chance of doubling and receiving a ten.
3. Increased chance of dealer busting, if it draws.
4. Increased chance of a blackjack.

I feel that a clear answer on this might resolve some of the more outlandish proposals.



1 isn't a source, because the dealer has the same chance of getting the same hands. It is from more blackjacks paying 1.5, more dealer busting, good insurance bets, more doubling and more successful doubling, more splitting and more successful splitting. The ones mentioned early on in Pro. Blackjack are the naturals and the dealer busting.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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July 17th, 2014 at 11:18:28 AM permalink
Quote: dabomboo7o

a casino having unlimited money vs. a players limited amount of money IS a edge the casino has.. another edge they have is table limits so one cannot execute the martingale system of betting..



That is not an edge. You seem to not understand expectation or variance.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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July 17th, 2014 at 11:25:37 AM permalink
Quote: Venthus

Something I've been wondering for some time now, that's somewhat related to the discussion at hand-- where exactly does the advantage in counting come from? I see primarily four sources:

1. Increased chance of getting two high cards in the deal. (For 17-21)



No edge here; the dealer is just as likely to receive two high cards as you are. The only exceptions are blackjack (mentioned below: since you get a 3:2 payout on your blackjacks, you gain EV when both of your blackjack chances increase) and AA (since you can split it and the dealer cant -- it's worth more to you than it is to the dealer). If you're willing to split TT in very high counts there is some small edge gained there (TT becomes worth more to you than to the dealer) but that is tiny, and probably mostly offset by the increased number of pushes.

Quote:

2. Increased chance of doubling and receiving a ten.



There is some edge here, since you can double and the dealer can't. It is somewhat offset by the decreased chance of receiving a doubling hand (most doubling hands are two small cards, or a small card and a medium card)

Quote:

3. Increased chance of dealer busting, if it draws.



This is huge. The dealer draws to all his stiffs; you only draw to some of yours. A higher percentage of busts therefore helps you.

Quote:

4. Increased chance of a blackjack.



Also huge. You win 1.5 bets when you get a blackjack, but lose only 1 bet when the dealer does.

Remember that it's you against the dealer, so don't only think of what you might get or what the dealer might get -- you need to think of both.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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July 19th, 2014 at 10:50:21 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Once again, clumping the aces together does not increase the house edge in the game. In fact, if smart players were to catch onto it, it would lead to a huge player advantage.

That was what I was going to say as well. Why wouldn't he RUN back with a bag of cash and look for that happening and then crush it ? But then I thought, he must have been thinking they can control the aces to never come out with high cards or something goofy like that.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
dolphans1
dolphans1
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June 20th, 2015 at 4:24:43 PM permalink
Quote: 3102yuma

I have made my last trip to Winstar Casino in Thackerville in Oklahoma. I have played blackjack for 30 years all over the country, but never at the Indian Casinos. I have won and lost, and admit to being somewhat of a sore loser. I have come to the conclusion you simply cannot win there. When I sit at a table, eventually everybody ends up disgusted from losing over and over and leave. It seems like know one wins. I wander if there are any former pit bosses from Vegas that work there and through their years of experience can see that something is just not right. It is uncanny how many blackjacks, aces up in a row that the dealers get. They crack me up when they put on what seems to be an act that they are so suprised by all their blackjacks, standing 20's, and hitting and not busting. I wish I had kept statistics on the percentage of hands I win. What I am sure of is that I can play 75-150 hands and maybe win three hands in a row during that stretch of playing. I can play 50 hands and never see a two-card 20 until the dealer has the samething. It does not matter if I am playing at a table with six decks or tables where they re-shuffle once they get through about two decks.

I cannnot go there and even play a leisurely game at the $5.00 minimum table. We just seem to lose and lose and lose. I want to repeat that I am a very experienced player, aware of bad streaks and the possibility of losing 10,15 or more hands in a row. But this is rediculous. I wrote the gaming commission, but I am already aware of the setup in Oklahoma and know it will fall upon deaf ears.

Could the machines be set up where once 'card-rich' hands that lean towards the house began to be shuffled into the machines in away that really increase the houses chance of winning. I play almost 99% by the mathmatics of the game.

i truly believe that one day it will be proven that somehow those shuffling machines are rigged.

Not one more .50 cent ante from me. I am done.



I 100% agree with 3102Yuma, I really believe the decks are rigged there too, and that the odds are stacked against the players. I have traveled around the world and I have never ever seen more people lose at blackjack at this place than any other place in the world. To be fair, I actually broke even, after buying a buffet for 3 buddies of mine, but I bet smart and got out real fast because of that insane ante of .50 cents one must pay after every hand, which I believe is criminal.

This place needs to be shutdown and needs to go out of business.

A complete joke.

At .50cents ante per bet, you're losing $30.00-$60.00 per hour. A damn joke, I will never ever go there to gamble.
urbflorams
urbflorams
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August 2nd, 2015 at 9:41:41 AM permalink
Quote: thlf

I worked at shufflemaster for several years. The shufflers are not nor can they be rigged. I had all of the internal passwords to set up the software, firmware, etc. and there is nothing there that can be altered to gain advantage either way. They are exactly as u see them.



Hi
I have a question. I know the shufflers can tell if a card is missing. Does the shufflers have different shuffle sequences or do they have card recognition on them? If they have any of those features they can be rigged.
Greasyjohn
Greasyjohn
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August 2nd, 2015 at 10:09:01 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

the machine would have to be rigged so that it feeds the right cards to just the dealer. That is quite an ambitious cheat seems to me.



Seems to me too.

A lot of people lose? With a 50 cent ante per hand I would think so. But that doesn't account for the poor outcomes the OP seems to always encounter. Double whamy.

Perhaps some expert in cheating could speculate. I very much doubt the shuffle machine could be compromised to deliver the dealer just the right second card or hit card to his hand. It sounds impossible unless internally 10 different cards were held in separate mechanisms and a confederate viewing the game (surveillance comes to mind) could manipulate the draw of any of those 10 cards with precision timing. Too many people would be in on the fix. Someone will brag or drop the dime to avoid time for some other felony.

Of course, this being an Indian casino anything's possible. The U.S. would be unenthusiastic about getting involved. Their intrusion might lead to a lawsuit that would last fifty years and in the end Oklahoma would be rechristened Indian Territory and would truly be a Sovereign Indian Nation with complete autonomy.
urbflorams
urbflorams
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August 2nd, 2015 at 8:58:42 PM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

Seems to me too.

A lot of people lose? With a 50 cent ante per hand I would think so. But that doesn't account for the poor outcomes the OP seems to always encounter. Double whamy.

Perhaps some expert in cheating could speculate. I very much doubt the shuffle machine could be compromised to deliver the dealer just the right second card or hit card to his hand. It sounds impossible unless internally 10 different cards were held in separate mechanisms and a confederate viewing the game (surveillance comes to mind) could manipulate the draw of any of those 10 cards with precision timing. Too many people would be in on the fix. Someone will brag or drop the dime to avoid time for some other felony.

Of course, this being an Indian casino anything's possible. The U.S. would be unenthusiastic about getting involved. Their intrusion might lead to a lawsuit that would last fifty years and in the end Oklahoma would be rechristened Indian Territory and would truly be a Sovereign Indian Nation with complete autonomy.



The machines only have to be rigged to hold back the 10 cards. If that is possible the casino will win almost every time.

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