Cain for VP?
I remain skeptical that a businessman can ever get elected President, or even nominated by a major party. However, it does look like Herman Cain is sounding more and more like a good VP candidate for the Republicans.
I realize that he (or anyone) would deny that he is campaigning for VP. But that is more or less a tactic.
Quote: rdw4potusIf Jindal, Christie, and Rubio are out, then Romney/Cain is probably the strongest available ticket. It still won't beat Obama/Biden, which is a real shame.
NPR did a piece of Hermann Cain a few months back, about how he was trying to recapture his greatest moment of putting down Clinton's healthcare numbers. It's interesting to see him go from a real outsider in terms of this race, to a name that seems to be at least in contention. The two interviews I've heard with him he's been pretty good, forthright and clear on his policies.
I'm not convinced Obama is a shoe-in this time around, from my outside reading. If Obama's new Job Creation bill doesn't pass, even after some chop ups, or if it's changed down to a Republican agenda, I think he'll be seen as a dead duck by enough swing voters that he'll lose in the important states.
Quote: thecesspitNPR did a piece of Hermann Cain a few months back, about how he was trying to recapture his greatest moment of putting down Clinton's healthcare numbers. It's interesting to see him go from a real outsider in terms of this race, to a name that seems to be at least in contention. The two interviews I've heard with him he's been pretty good, forthright and clear on his policies.
I'm not convinced Obama is a shoe-in this time around, from my outside reading. If Obama's new Job Creation bill doesn't pass, even after some chop ups, or if it's changed down to a Republican agenda, I think he'll be seen as a dead duck by enough swing voters that he'll lose in the important states.
I grew up in a conservative household, but both of my parents are/were union members. Neither of them will vote for Romney. I like Romney a hell of a lot more than I like Obama, but I wonder how many people there are like my parents in the rust belt.
I also wonder if the Religion thing will be a bigger issue for Romney (and Huntsman, who'd be another strong VP) than it currently seems. JFK's Catholicism almost cost him the election in '60, and Mormonism is a lot farther from the mainstream than Catholicism. There aren't a whole lot of Evangelicals who'd have to stay home in MO or GA or even SC before things could just get odd.
Quote: FleaStiffNever heard of him. Does a VP do anything anyway?
He ran various companies, like Goodfellas pizza restaurants, and has some work with politics after making a series of good points against the cost to business of Clinton's healthcare reforms. I think he has tried to run for office several times in the past decade. He's appears to me at least to be a classic Republican (business friendly, wants to reform social security, reduce spending, strong national defence and FairTax). The FairTax is probably the most out there item as being a large change to the way the US runs itself. He's also a Christian minister, and from Atlanta, which might get him support from both those electorates?
I thought a VPs job was to be a counterpoint and distraction from the president?
Quote: rdw4potusIf Jindal, Christie, and Rubio are out, then Romney/Cain is probably the strongest available ticket. It still won't beat Obama/Biden, which is a real shame.
Care to explain why we would re-elect Obama? Just
the highlights of his exceptional job as President, if
you can find any. Please don't mention health care,
the majority of voters are against that abomination.
Quote: thecesspitI thought a VPs job was to be a counterpoint and distraction from the president?
The VP is almost unique in the world of government. His formal duties include breaking ties in the Senate, running NASA, and replacing the President if necessary. For most of the nation's history he was not replaced. I believe the office has been vacant 16 times (for a very large number of cumulative years), and it wasn't until the 1970's that the office was first filled if vacant.
Perhaps the office works because it has no massive responsibilities. That way if the President dies, there is no real power struggle.
But for most of the history of the USA (since 1840), the VP's primary value is he helps the President gets elected by appealing to a different demographic. If that is what you mean by being a counterpoint and a distraction, then I agree with you.
Quote: EvenBobCare to explain why we would re-elect Obama? Just
the highlights of his exceptional job as President, if
you can find any. Please don't mention health care,
the majority of voters are against that abomination.
I think people feel like he's slightly less awful than the crop of Republican contenders, and most people will vote for someone on election day. He's done a piss-poor job in almost every way. But it's hard to see Perry or Bachmann or Cain doing better. As I've said, Romney will be the GOPs nominee, and I'll vote for Romney.
Quote: rdw4potusI think people feel like he's slightly less awful than the crop of Republican contenders
He's done a far worse job than Carter ever did,
and we voted an old Hollywood actor into office
just to get rid of him. Nobody thought Reagan
would do a good job, we just knew anything was better
than 4 more years of Carter. Ditto on Obama.
Quote: EvenBobHe's done a far worse job than Carter ever did,
and we voted an old Hollywood actor into office
just to get rid of him. Nobody thought Reagan
would do a good job, we just knew anything was better
than 4 more years of Carter. Ditto on Obama.
I'm glad you feel that way. Hopefully you're right. The polling isn't there yet...
Quote: rdw4potusI'm glad you feel that way. Hopefully you're right. The polling isn't there yet...
It isn't? Obama is doing worse in the polls against
possible opponents than Carter was doing in the
same time frame.
Quote: EvenBobIt isn't? Obama is doing worse in the polls against
possible opponents than Carter was doing in the
same time frame.
That's true nationally. It isn't as clear on a state by state level. It really doesn't matter how badly Obama loses in TX, MS, AR, AL, LA, UT, ID, TN, KS, OK, WV, or WY. The fact that Obama's approval rating in OH, PA, NC, VA, and FL is around 40% and he's still tied with the republican contenders should say all you really need to know about the strength of the republican field.
Quote: pacomartinThe VP is almost unique in the world of government. His formal duties include breaking ties in the Senate, running NASA, and replacing the President if necessary. For most of the nation's history he was not replaced. I believe the office has been vacant 16 times (for a very large number of cumulative years), and it wasn't until the 1970's that the office was first filled if vacant.
Perhaps the office works because it has no massive responsibilities. That way if the President dies, there is no real power struggle.
But for most of the history of the USA (since 1840), the VP's primary value is he helps the President gets elected by appealing to a different demographic. If that is what you mean by being a counterpoint and a distraction, then I agree with you.
I was being snide, as the VP office seems to either have been seen as a bit of a fool (Qualye, Biden) or a with the fool in office, the evil behind the throne (Cheney).
Back in the early days, wasn't the VP the runner up in the electoral voting, and sometimes the VP was a different party to the POTUS?
Quote: rudeboyoiits 50/50 on pinnacle sports now on which party will win the election. -104 regardless of which side u bet.
I would buy the Big O all day long. And then vote against him. That doesn't count as a hedge, does it?
Quote: thecesspitBack in the early days, wasn't the VP the runner up in the electoral voting, and sometimes the VP was a different party to the POTUS?
Yes, that was the original system, but it didn't last very long. It was seen as ineffective very early in the country's history.
Although there were 21 Prime Ministers of the UK prior to 8 June 1812, that system was still struggling to find itself. Most of the PM's were not in power for very long. In a sense the USA did not have a lot of role models to build on. The thought was that the VP would be the second most important man in the country.
But even the party system was not well developed at the beginning.
Cain, will of course, confuse the racial aspect of the campaign. I don't expect a significant number of black voters to switch to Republican just because they have a black VP candidate, but for many other voters it will become a "post racial" election. There are two black Republican congressmen today, and no black Senators. There is a white Jewish man representing a majority black congressional district in Memphis, who even got the backing of the Black Congressional Caucus. So, for many people the race will lose any racial overtones.
Barack, may still ask Hillary to be his VP, and make Joe Biden his Secretary of State. We all know that is a long shot. No one has said that they want that option; not Barack and not Hillary. But you never know what may happen.
Quote: pacomartinCain, will of course, confuse the racial aspect of the campaign.
It will be fun to see elements in the Democratic Party twisting themselves into pretzels trying to claim nominating a black man for president makes the GOP racist. That is, if they haven't begun to already.
Quote: rdw4potusThat's true nationally. It isn't as clear on a state by state level. It really doesn't matter how badly Obama loses in TX, MS, AR, AL, LA, UT, ID, TN, KS, OK, WV, or WY. The fact that Obama's approval rating in OH, PA, NC, VA, and FL is around 40% and he's still tied with the republican contenders should say all you really need to know about the strength of the republican field.
That is no suprise, people are mostly not tuned in yet. I figure at best a POTUS will pull 5 points higher than his approval rating. Obama's numbers are falling and will keep falling because, quite frankly, the guy just is not a "leader." People are tuning out his speaches, and he sounds like some infomercial saying, "PASS THIS BILL" everytime he talks.
The GOP field is, for once, full of real choice. And the debates are self-vetting the group. Whoever emerges will be tested and resistant to the Democrat Attack Machine.
Quote: rdw4potusand Romney is lost in his daddy's shadow.
Oh bulloney. 99% of the people have no idea
who Romney's dad was, I only know because
I live in MI. I still don't understand, what are
you basing your fear on? Obama has no record
to run on, even his own party is sick of him, he
he has no friends, he's even tanking in raising
money for himself. Why are you so terrified of
him?
Quote: NareedIt will be fun to see elements in the Democratic Party twisting themselves into pretzels trying to claim nominating a black man for president makes the GOP racist. That is, if they haven't begun to already.
Well Cain has launched a volley earlier today, where he called black leaders who object to his campaign as racist. Even the radio show host asked him to rephrase it as "bigoted", that's how uncomfortable he was with the term. I believe the radio show host was white.
No congressional district with over 35% black citizens is Republican, and only one with 50% or more black citizens has a white congressman. And that is very offensive to some people in the district. But Congressman Steve Cohen has been involved in Memphis politics since the 1970's. He is considered to be exceptionally smart. Given the poverty in the district, many black leaders appreciate his ability to bring some work into the area.
Quote: pacomartinWell Cain has launched a volley earlier today, where he called black leaders who object to his campaign as racist. Even the radio show host asked him to rephrase it as "bigoted",
I like Cain, but he has no political experience. He
might make a good VP, but he's no starter for president.
Quote: EvenBobOh bulloney. 99% of the people have no idea
who Romney's dad was, I only know because
I live in MI. I still don't understand, what are
you basing your fear on? Obama has no record
to run on, even his own party is sick of him, he
he has no friends, he's even tanking in raising
money for himself. Why are you so terrified of
him?
I'll put it this way: the last time republicans were this uninterested in their presidential candidate(s) was 1976. The last time democrats were this uninterested was 1980. This election is Jerry Ford vs Jimmy Carter. How are we, as citizens, not screwed?
Quote: rdw4potusI'll put it this way: the last time republicans were this uninterested in their presidential candidate(s)
What makes you think they're not interested?
People are talking about it everywhere and
the election is a year away.
Quote: EvenBobWhat makes you think they're not interested?
People are talking about it everywhere and
the election is a year away.
Pundits talk, no one listens. Governmental approval is at an all time low. That's a sign that people aren't real keen on voting people into government.
Quote: rdw4potusPundits talk, no one listens. Governmental approval is at an all time low. That's a sign that people aren't real keen on voting people into government.
Nooooo, if they APPROVED of the gov't, that would
be a sign they aren't interested in changing anything.
People want to desperately change things now, next
years election will be the biggest turnout in history.
Quote: pacomartinNo congressional district with over 35% black citizens is Republican
I think that Lynn Westmoreland in GA3 and Steve Chabot in OH1 are both GOPers with >35% black populations. I'm pretty sure on Chabot (his district is metro Cincy), less so on Westmoreland (southwest suburban and exurban Atlanta).
Edit: MS3 must be very very close to 35% black, and is represented by a GOPer. I'm blanking on the name, and I can't figure out how to look it up on my phone without leaving this page. That district runs diagonally from the north-south LA border through Pearl (but not Jackson) to the AL border roughly between I20 and US82. MS is a pretty successful example of a successfully compactly gerrymandered state - only this district is even close to a logical stretch, but all 4 districts are safe for the incumbent parties.
Quote: EvenBobNooooo, if they APPROVED of the gov't, that would
be a sign they aren't interested in changing anything.
People want to desperately change things now, next
years election will be the biggest turnout in history.
People have given up. The only people with a lower approval rating than democrats in congress are republicans in congress. What do you propose that we change to?
Quote: rdw4potusPeople have given up. The only people with a lower approval rating than democrats in congress are republicans in congress. What do you propose that we change to?
Thats what turns out voters, DISAPPROVAL! When they
love whats going on, they stay home.
Quote: EvenBobThats what turns out voters, DISAPPROVAL! When they
love whats going on, they stay home.
When they don't see better alternatives, they also stay home. In those polls about congress, 15% approve of the democrats' performance, 12% approve of the GOP. That means the majority - an overwhelming majority, actually - disapprove of both parties. Who do you think people are going to vote for?
Obama's job approval is 38% in PA, but he's still polling ahead of the republican candidates. Worse yet, he's polling even with a generic republican in PA. So not only can the GOP not beat a guy with a 38% approval rating on principal, but they actually do WORSE when people find out who the candidates are. Think about what this means. Question 1 is "do you want to stay with Obama, or switch to a GOPer with a pulse?" and it's a 42/42/12/4 split (Dem/GOP/unsure/decline). Question 2 is "say the GOPer is Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney: Obama or Romney?" and it's 47/38/8/7. Romney not only loses his own support to Obama, but the undecideds shrink as well. That means there's a group of people who basically say "oh hell no. If it's Romney, I'm voting for Obama."
Quote: rdw4potusIf it's Romney, I'm voting for Obama."
LOL! You were voting for Obama anyway, thats
what all this is really about.
Quote: EvenBobLOL! You were voting for Obama anyway, thats
what all this is really about.
Personally, I'm voting for Romney (assuming he's the nominee). But I do think he has a union issue that hasn't snapped into focus yet. And there's the obvious religion issue. I think that's really what it comes down to. Everything has to go right for Romney to win the general, and everything has to continue to go wrong for Obama to lose it. Obama's doing his best to continue to screw up, but I don't trust Romney's ability to run a perfect campaign. And I do think turnout will be way, way down in the places that matter. It's like college: people just don't care who's fucking them - they're getting fucked.
Quote: rdw4potusI think that Lynn Westmoreland in GA3 and Steve Chabot in OH1 are both GOPers with >35% black populations. I'm pretty sure on Chabot (his district is metro Cincy), less so on Westmoreland (southwest suburban and exurban Atlanta).
Edit: MS3 must be very very close to 35% black, and is represented by a GOPer. I'm blanking on the name, and I can't figure out how to look it up on my phone without leaving this page. That district runs diagonally from the north-south LA border through Pearl (but not Jackson) to the AL border roughly between I20 and US82. MS is a pretty successful example of a successfully compactly gerrymandered state - only this district is even close to a logical stretch, but all 4 districts are safe for the incumbent parties.
Georgia-3 is 24.5% black ( 200,413 out of 817,247) so it must clearly be shrunk in size for 2012
Ohio-1 is 30.5% black (182,805 out of 598,699) so it must be expanded for 2012
These are the four congressional districts with the largest African American percentages of citizens that still have Republican congressmen
35.0% Louisiana -6 (R- Bill Cassidy)
34.9% Georgia -8 (R-Austin Scott)
34.8% Mississippi -3 (R-Gregg Harper)
The Demographic Exception is (D-Stephen Ira Cohen) who is clearly Jewish and represents
63.5% Tennessee-9th district.
Tennessee has a million African American Citizens (out of 6.3) but only the 9th district has a large black majority. The 9th was organized that way after the 1980 census, but Harold Ford Sr. had already won four elections and the district was almost designed for him to win. Harold Ford Sr. was not a founder of the congressional black congress, but he was an early member. The father served for 22 years, then his oldest son (Harold Ford Jr) served the district for ten more years. The family dynasty crumbled as the son became a national media figure in 2000 and made his first try at becoming a Senator. The second son did not have the education or the charisma, and lost a close election.
Stephen Ira Cohen has now won 3 congressional elections, and continues to beat the racial trend. He has now received the endorsement of the congressional black congress although they are not going to allow him to become a member.
The Republican black congressmen (who represent districts with very small numbers of African Americans) are
15.4% Minnesota-5th (R-Keith Ellison) also the first of only two Muslim congressmen
7.4% Florida-22nd (R-Allen West)
The Black Congressional Caucus, is officially bi-partisan, just as it is officially open to White-members of congress. Keith Ellison is a member but he is not very active. Allen West has declined to join.
Keith Ellison is co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC), which was organized in 1991 after the end of the cold war. It was also organized by Democrats, but is bipartisan.
Quote: pacomartin
The Republican black congressmen (who represent districts with very small numbers of African Americans) are
15.4% Minnesota-5th (R-Keith Ellison) also the first of only two Muslim congressmen
7.4% Florida-22nd (R-Allen West)
The Minnesota 5th is Minneapolis proper. It's Minnesota's most liberal district, and Ellison is a democrat who's found a way to be even more liberal than his constituents.
Quote: vert1276I didn't really read the thread BUT.....I would think if Romney got the GOP nomination he wouldn't pick Cain as VP....Both their strong suits are the economy......He would need to pick someone with foreign policy experience to balance the ticket....Maybe Huntsman?
I don't think the all-mormon ticket works. Huntsman is a terrific pick, and I think he's the most likely VP pick (because he should be #1 for all of the non-Romney nominees). But I think Romney needs to go southern conservative if he wins. Nikki Haley or Mike Huckabee.
Quote: vert1276I didn't really read the thread BUT.....I would think if Romney got the GOP nomination he wouldn't pick Cain as VP....Both their strong suits are the economy......He would need to pick someone with foreign policy experience to balance the ticket....Maybe Huntsman?
See, I believe you are talking about your view of the best team to run the country. While that is laudable, Romney & Huntsman are not electable. As was pointed out the All-Mormon team will not scare too many people.
Cain has the advantage that for every personal attack he endures from black political groups, he will be embraced by conservative white voters, and many non-aligned voters as well. Since the Republican party is not going to get the black vote anyway, they will want to court these voters.
Bottom line is that only 1 in 3 people in this country is a white man. While the most obvious demographic to shoot for is women, I think Cain will broaden the appeal of the team very nicely. With the Republicans having the huge advantage of an economy in near collapse, they just have to avoid the trap of not being representative of the country as a whole.
I've talked to people in politics, and they will tell you campaigns are more like selling toothpaste than actual governing.
