Who Will Be The Democrat On The 2012 Presidential Ballot

Incumbents generally get the nomination of their party. There are circumstances that sometimes cause the party to go with another candidate.

These polls and discussions are interesting but we'll need to renew them along the way as things change. At this point, the only "real" candidate for the democrats is the President. The question is...do you think that will change? If you think he will be challenged, who will challenge him? Do they have a chance at success?

Will Hillary Clinton wait until 2016 since the Vice President may not be a strong candidate (if at all)?

So many questions to be answered over the next couple of years...

(sorry for the spelling error...I can't fix it now...)

Barack will be the nominee.

And he will win.

Put $100 on it.

SFB

Obama will get it. If Carter can get it in 1980, Obama will get it here, and things aren't (yet) quite as bad now as they were then. There's still, what, a year before the first primaries are held, and anything can happen.

But yeah, if you still have a house, bet it on Obama to get the nod.

At this point, my money would be on the President being the candidate, too. I am hearing more about the recovery strengthening and his shift towards the center will also help.

I'm not as sure about him winning but I would say that he still has the advantage in the general election, too. The incumbency is a huge obstacle to overcome.

Quote: RonC

The incumbency is a huge obstacle to overcome.

Indeed. It proved a formidable obstacle for Jimmy Carter.

Republicans should urge a big-name Democrat, possibly Hilalry, to challenge Obama in the primaries. No better way to weaken a sitting president. Again, ask Mr. Carter.

Quote: Nareed

Indeed. It proved a formidable obstacle for Jimmy Carter.

Republicans should urge a big-name Democrat, possibly Hilalry, to challenge Obama in the primaries. No better way to weaken a sitting president. Again, ask Mr. Carter.

True enough...it CAN be an obstacle for the President when he is as badly regarded as Jimmy Carter was. In many cases, though, it works in favor of a President who is "doing okay"...

I would like to see Hillary run. The President would have to defend an actual record this time as opposed to running on a thin resume last election. I am thinking Hillary will hold out until 2016...

Obama will not face a serious challenge in 2012. The right wing will bring in a candidate that favors mandatory prayer in schools, the removal of all women from public employment, the televised whipping and beheading of blasphemers, and the formation of a new government agency whose function is to obliterate the environment (the EDA). The electorate, while not being thrilled with the incumbent, will be even less thrilled with the alternative, especially when televised debates show that challenging candidate pontificating and raving, getting all puffy-eyed and red in the face.

For that reason, I think that even if Obama sinks to single digits in approval ratings, the Demos will still nominate him in 2012. The Republicans will be tossing the Democrats a softball, so he would be a 2000-1 favorite.

This is too bad. The whole mess would otherwise be kind of interesting.

Quote: mkl654321

Obama will not face a serious challenge in 2012. The right wing will bring in a candidate that favors mandatory prayer in schools, the removal of all women from public employment, the televised whipping and beheading of blasphemers, and the formation of a new government agency whose function is to obliterate the environment (the EDA). The electorate, while not being thrilled with the incumbent, will be even less thrilled with the alternative, especially when televised debates show that challenging candidate pontificating and raving, getting all puffy-eyed and red in the face.

For that reason, I think that even if Obama sinks to single digits in approval ratings, the Demos will still nominate him in 2012. The Republicans will be tossing the Democrats a softball, so he would be a 2000-1 favorite.

This is too bad. The whole mess would otherwise be kind of interesting.

Really? Wow. I'll not say anything more; what I want to say would get me suspended.

Thanks for adding the ridiculous to the discussion...

Quote: RonC

Really? Wow. I'll not say anything more; what I want to say would get me suspended.

Thanks for adding the ridiculous to the discussion...

Oh, go ahead--say it anyway.

And if what I said was "ridiculous", why do you think the Demos would NOT nominate our Glorious Leader? (Presumably, you disagree with the "ridiculous" notion that Obama would be a shoo-in against whatever Republican candidate is nominated.)

Quote: RonC

True enough...it CAN be an obstacle for the President when he is as badly regarded as Jimmy Carter was. In many cases, though, it works in favor of a President who is "doing okay"...

If Obama's not doing "ok" by mid-2012, he'll make Walter Mondale's landslide defeat look good.

Quote:

I would like to see Hillary run. The President would have to defend an actual record this time as opposed to running on a thin resume last election. I am thinking Hillary will hold out until 2016...

It would be the height of disloyalty for Hillary to run against her former boss. I don't thik she'll run unless Obama doesn't. The chance that Obama won't run is just sligthly higher than the chance the Earth will switch the direction it spins on its axis.

No serious contender will run against Obama in the primary.

Thirty years ago Ted Kennedy ran against Carter in the primary and won 12 states, but I couldn't see that happening in 2 years.